5 ms·

The solution is to get rid of zoning laws. Baring some breakthrough in public choice theory allowing us to break out of this mess, I predict we are stuck with t

by wycs 8y ago

The solution is to get rid of zoning laws. Baring some breakthrough in public choice theory allowing us to break out of this mess, I predict we are stuck with this until the robots take over.

seanmcdirmid 8y ago
Getting rid of zoning laws only works if you have a lot of extra land to sprawl out onto. Otherwise, even if you build up to get more dense ala NYC, HK, Tokyo, or Shanghai, the area will just become more attractive and more people will want to live there. No easy solutions here.
- wycs 8y ago
  You say that like vastly increasing the productivity of our largest cities is neutral at best. This would create an extraordinary surplus, and other cities that can build out would compete for citizens, just like Texas is doing right now.
  - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
    No city in Texas is dense, its all sprawl, even in liberal Austin.
    - graeme 8y ago
      I looked into this and Texas still has a lot of pro-sprawl policies, such as mandatory parking minimums. People paint them as no zoning, but that's only on one specific measure.
- barry-cotter 8y ago
  Housing prices have been more or less flat in Tokyo for 30 years. https://marketurbanismreport.com/tokyos-affordable-housing-strategy-build/ https://marketurbanismreport.com/tokyos-affordable-housing-s... > According to the website RealEstate.co.jp, average housing prices throughout Greater Tokyo have actually decreased since 2006. In 2014, the average price of second-hand condos was 27,890,000 yen, or about $232,914. This is above the U.S. median of $187,000, but is a steal when considering that average housing prices in many destination U.S. cities are triple or quadruple this amount.
  - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
    Again, it only looks like a steal if you look at unit costs and not per square feet/meter costs. This puts Tokyo on par with Seattle. See https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/compare_cities.jsp?country1=United+States&country2=Japan&city1=Seattle%2C+WA&city2=Tokyo&tracking=getDispatchComparison https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/compare_cities.js...
  - nradov 8y ago
    It's easy to keep housing prices from rising when a country has a low birth rate and minimal immigration.
    - barry-cotter 8y ago
      Tokyo’s population has grown in every census since 1955. http://www.newgeography.com/content/002923-the-evolving-urban-form-tokyo http://www.newgeography.com/content/002923-the-evolving-urba...
  - dba7dba 8y ago
    I heard many many commuters who work in Tokyo actually live pretty far away, commuting via the bullet trains. So the housing market in Tokyo is not in tremendous demand.
    - amanaplanacanal 8y ago
      Good public transportation certainly helps there, which most of the US doesn't have.
- losteric 8y ago
  > Getting rid of zoning laws only works if you have a lot of extra land to sprawl out onto. Other way around. Zoning encourages horizontal growth by constraining vertical growth. Once supply has reached horizontal and vertical limits, prices skyrocket to reach equilibrium with demand. > Otherwise, even if you build up to get more dense ala NYC, HK, Tokyo, or Shanghai, the area will just become more attractive and more people will want to live there. Density implies noise, pollution, traffic, people, and a certain type of urban lifestyle... all of which decrease attractiveness.
  - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
    > Density implies noise, pollution, traffic, people, and a certain type of urban lifestyle... all of which decrease attractiveness. Prices in big dense cities say otherwise, there is plenty of demand to be where all the economic action is, many people also prefer urban lifestyles. The lack of zoning doesn't encourage density at all, if there is land to build out instead of up, everyone will prefer the former because its cheaper and can provide amenities like free parking. Zoning can prevent that, it can also discourage vertical growth but at the same time discouraging horizontal growth as well.
    - losteric 8y ago
      > Prices in big dense cities say otherwise, there is plenty of demand to be where all the economic action is, many people also prefer urban lifestyles. Prices just show urban areas are highly valued, there is no proof those areas defy supply and demand. Density increases attractiveness for some people, but the trade-offs are clearly not for everyone given NIMBYism and higher prices outside some urban areas. Increasing supply may increase demand to a point, but there is still an equilibrium - density is still part of the solution. > The lack of zoning doesn't encourage density at all, if there is land to build out instead of up, everyone will prefer the former because its cheaper and can provide amenities like free parking. Zoning can prevent that, it can also discourage vertical growth but at the same time discouraging horizontal growth as well. Moot point, this entire discussion is about urban areas where land has already run out. > if there is land to build out instead of up, everyone will prefer the former because its cheaper and can provide amenities like free parking. "Everyone", except people that care about the time cost of commuting and the financial obligation of car ownership.
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  > Otherwise, even if you build up to get more dense ala NYC, HK, Tokyo, or Shanghai, the area will just become more attractive and more people will want to live there. The problem with this theory is that it's zero sum. If density attracts people and prices there rise, those people will have come from some other place. Then the prices in that place will fall and we still serve the goal of giving people an affordable place to live. You can't increase demand in every place at the same time. It has to come from somewhere. And if you increase density everywhere at once, it also can't move from everywhere to everywhere. If one city increases density it attracts new people from other cities. If every city does it there is no net migration because the benefits accrue everywhere, so the demand in each place stays the same and the greater supply lowers prices.
  - cimmanom 8y ago
    Population growth can increase demand everywhere at once. And affordable housing away from a high demand urban center is no use to anyone and not going to attract anyone if there aren’t good jobs there.
    - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
      > Population growth can increase demand everywhere at once. But where is the extra population coming from? If you're talking about any other place, it reduces housing costs in that place. If you're talking about a rise in birthrates, that's theoretically possible (though by no means guaranteed), but the timescale is so long that there is plenty of time to build even more housing by then. > And affordable housing away from a high demand urban center is no use to anyone and not going to attract anyone if there aren’t good jobs there. Where do you expect the people to be coming from? If it's another city, that's still an urban center with jobs. If it's the suburbs, people can still live there and work in the city as they do now. And they can't be from the middle of farm country because there aren't enough people there to be a major source of demand, even before accounting for the fact that they would have to both want to move to the city and be able to afford to.
      - 8y ago
- imtringued 8y ago
  Demand isn't infinite. Every person that moves to the attractive city is one less person that wants to move to the attractive city because that person is already there. The goal isn't lowering the housing price. If one person moves in and the price stays the same that alone is already a success.
kspaans 8y ago
One thing you still need to consider is infrastructure like water, sewer, schools, hospitals, etc. I agree it should be easier (and thus cheaper) for landowners to build what's profitable, but there needs to be a feedback mechanism so that the things necessary for people (apart from housing) is available for them.
- alexanderwept 8y ago
  Yes, every perspective renter/buyer should consider that and choose what works for them. That feedback mechanism is called a market and it coordinates via price signals and a desire to achieve equilibrium.
drb91 8y ago
Why do you see this as a mess?
AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> The solution is to get rid of zoning laws. Baring some breakthrough in public choice theory allowing us to break out of this mess, I predict we are stuck with this until the robots take over. The breakthrough is using higher-level entities to constrain lower-level entities. What creates the problem is that you have a neighborhood zoned only for low density and the only people with a vote to change it are the existing homeowners whose collective voting sentiment is "screw you, got mine." What's needed is a law at the state or federal level that any given fifty mile radius has to have a certain percentage of area zoned for unrestricted density.
dba7dba 8y ago
Zoning laws get a lot of negative on HN, but I think they serve an important, good purpose. Here me out. I work from home. Yay. I live in a residential area in US, near an elementary school across the street, with an apartment building in the way. I can hear kids out running around and playing in the yard. They get pretty noisy, but I'm fine with it. Right next to the elementary school is an apartment complex where a guy seems to be running a motorcycle repair business based out of his apartment's garage. The garage faces the street, facing my home. He tests the loud motorcycle engines about 1 - 2 times running a few minutes each time, about 3 - 5 times a week. One of these days, I'm going to super glue his garage shut so that he can't get the motorcycles in and out of the garage. Ok, well, just kidding. I will just have to deal with it. But still, it is dang annoying to hear the motorcycle engines revving up as described above. I can't imagine how I can deal with a motorcycle/car repair shop across from my home. Zoning laws are often used as a tool by people who practice NIMBYism, but the laws were introduced for a reason, and I support zoning laws because it would mean keeping certain types of businesses bit placed away from homes.
- gomox 8y ago
  Loud motorcycles should be violently taxed and restricted to low density zones of operation. I can't think of any other behavior that is as destructive to the common good for so little benefit to the individual. "I like loud sounds" is not good enough reason to inflict them on everyone else.
  - SeeDave 8y ago
    I agree, wholeheartedly and have a hard time understanding the thought process and worldview of someone who rides a loud motorcycle even five blocks in a dense urban neighborhood at night. In one neighborhood I lived in... each building was 4 stories, with 5 apartments facing the road. There are two sides of the road. There were four apartment buildings per block. 5 * 4 * 5 * 2 * 4 = 800 homes being affected! Yikes!
  - dba7dba 8y ago
    I mean, I'm ok with occasional loud motorcycles driving through the neighborhood. But this case is more than that. So, this particular neighbor is not riding a motorcycle through the neighborhood. Other riders do and I'm ok with that. But this particular neighbor revs the motorcycle engines "while standing still to test them". A few minutes at a time, about 3 - 5 times a week. Now imagine zoning law was gone. It might mean a user car mechanic moving in to operate a repair business, while leaving numerous unused cars on the street. It could mean someone opening a hair salon a door down from me. Or maybe another person opening a martial arts studio above me. Zoning laws used as a tool by NIMBYers is not good. But the laws have a valid place in our society.

by wycs 8y ago

The solution is to get rid of zoning laws. Baring some breakthrough in public choice theory allowing us to break out of this mess, I predict we are stuck with this until the robots take over.

seanmcdirmid 8y ago

Getting rid of zoning laws only works if you have a lot of extra land to sprawl out onto. Otherwise, even if you build up to get more dense ala NYC, HK, Tokyo, or Shanghai, the area will just become more attractive and more people will want to live there. No easy solutions here.

wycs 8y ago
You say that like vastly increasing the productivity of our largest cities is neutral at best. This would create an extraordinary surplus, and other cities that can build out would compete for citizens, just like Texas is doing right now.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  No city in Texas is dense, its all sprawl, even in liberal Austin.
  - graeme 8y ago
    I looked into this and Texas still has a lot of pro-sprawl policies, such as mandatory parking minimums. People paint them as no zoning, but that's only on one specific measure.
barry-cotter 8y ago
Housing prices have been more or less flat in Tokyo for 30 years. https://marketurbanismreport.com/tokyos-affordable-housing-strategy-build/ https://marketurbanismreport.com/tokyos-affordable-housing-s... > According to the website RealEstate.co.jp, average housing prices throughout Greater Tokyo have actually decreased since 2006. In 2014, the average price of second-hand condos was 27,890,000 yen, or about $232,914. This is above the U.S. median of $187,000, but is a steal when considering that average housing prices in many destination U.S. cities are triple or quadruple this amount.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  Again, it only looks like a steal if you look at unit costs and not per square feet/meter costs. This puts Tokyo on par with Seattle. See https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/compare_cities.jsp?country1=United+States&country2=Japan&city1=Seattle%2C+WA&city2=Tokyo&tracking=getDispatchComparison https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/compare_cities.js...
- nradov 8y ago
  It's easy to keep housing prices from rising when a country has a low birth rate and minimal immigration.
  - barry-cotter 8y ago
    Tokyo’s population has grown in every census since 1955. http://www.newgeography.com/content/002923-the-evolving-urban-form-tokyo http://www.newgeography.com/content/002923-the-evolving-urba...
- dba7dba 8y ago
  I heard many many commuters who work in Tokyo actually live pretty far away, commuting via the bullet trains. So the housing market in Tokyo is not in tremendous demand.
  - amanaplanacanal 8y ago
    Good public transportation certainly helps there, which most of the US doesn't have.
losteric 8y ago
> Getting rid of zoning laws only works if you have a lot of extra land to sprawl out onto. Other way around. Zoning encourages horizontal growth by constraining vertical growth. Once supply has reached horizontal and vertical limits, prices skyrocket to reach equilibrium with demand. > Otherwise, even if you build up to get more dense ala NYC, HK, Tokyo, or Shanghai, the area will just become more attractive and more people will want to live there. Density implies noise, pollution, traffic, people, and a certain type of urban lifestyle... all of which decrease attractiveness.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  > Density implies noise, pollution, traffic, people, and a certain type of urban lifestyle... all of which decrease attractiveness. Prices in big dense cities say otherwise, there is plenty of demand to be where all the economic action is, many people also prefer urban lifestyles. The lack of zoning doesn't encourage density at all, if there is land to build out instead of up, everyone will prefer the former because its cheaper and can provide amenities like free parking. Zoning can prevent that, it can also discourage vertical growth but at the same time discouraging horizontal growth as well.
  - losteric 8y ago
    > Prices in big dense cities say otherwise, there is plenty of demand to be where all the economic action is, many people also prefer urban lifestyles. Prices just show urban areas are highly valued, there is no proof those areas defy supply and demand. Density increases attractiveness for some people, but the trade-offs are clearly not for everyone given NIMBYism and higher prices outside some urban areas. Increasing supply may increase demand to a point, but there is still an equilibrium - density is still part of the solution. > The lack of zoning doesn't encourage density at all, if there is land to build out instead of up, everyone will prefer the former because its cheaper and can provide amenities like free parking. Zoning can prevent that, it can also discourage vertical growth but at the same time discouraging horizontal growth as well. Moot point, this entire discussion is about urban areas where land has already run out. > if there is land to build out instead of up, everyone will prefer the former because its cheaper and can provide amenities like free parking. "Everyone", except people that care about the time cost of commuting and the financial obligation of car ownership.
AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> Otherwise, even if you build up to get more dense ala NYC, HK, Tokyo, or Shanghai, the area will just become more attractive and more people will want to live there. The problem with this theory is that it's zero sum. If density attracts people and prices there rise, those people will have come from some other place. Then the prices in that place will fall and we still serve the goal of giving people an affordable place to live. You can't increase demand in every place at the same time. It has to come from somewhere. And if you increase density everywhere at once, it also can't move from everywhere to everywhere. If one city increases density it attracts new people from other cities. If every city does it there is no net migration because the benefits accrue everywhere, so the demand in each place stays the same and the greater supply lowers prices.
- cimmanom 8y ago
  Population growth can increase demand everywhere at once. And affordable housing away from a high demand urban center is no use to anyone and not going to attract anyone if there aren’t good jobs there.
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    > Population growth can increase demand everywhere at once. But where is the extra population coming from? If you're talking about any other place, it reduces housing costs in that place. If you're talking about a rise in birthrates, that's theoretically possible (though by no means guaranteed), but the timescale is so long that there is plenty of time to build even more housing by then. > And affordable housing away from a high demand urban center is no use to anyone and not going to attract anyone if there aren’t good jobs there. Where do you expect the people to be coming from? If it's another city, that's still an urban center with jobs. If it's the suburbs, people can still live there and work in the city as they do now. And they can't be from the middle of farm country because there aren't enough people there to be a major source of demand, even before accounting for the fact that they would have to both want to move to the city and be able to afford to.
    - 8y ago
imtringued 8y ago
Demand isn't infinite. Every person that moves to the attractive city is one less person that wants to move to the attractive city because that person is already there. The goal isn't lowering the housing price. If one person moves in and the price stays the same that alone is already a success.

kspaans 8y ago

One thing you still need to consider is infrastructure like water, sewer, schools, hospitals, etc. I agree it should be easier (and thus cheaper) for landowners to build what's profitable, but there needs to be a feedback mechanism so that the things necessary for people (apart from housing) is available for them.

alexanderwept 8y ago
Yes, every perspective renter/buyer should consider that and choose what works for them. That feedback mechanism is called a market and it coordinates via price signals and a desire to achieve equilibrium.

drb91 8y ago

Why do you see this as a mess?

AnthonyMouse 8y ago

> The solution is to get rid of zoning laws. Baring some breakthrough in public choice theory allowing us to break out of this mess, I predict we are stuck with this until the robots take over. The breakthrough is using higher-level entities to constrain lower-level entities. What creates the problem is that you have a neighborhood zoned only for low density and the only people with a vote to change it are the existing homeowners whose collective voting sentiment is "screw you, got mine." What's needed is a law at the state or federal level that any given fifty mile radius has to have a certain percentage of area zoned for unrestricted density.

dba7dba 8y ago

Zoning laws get a lot of negative on HN, but I think they serve an important, good purpose. Here me out. I work from home. Yay. I live in a residential area in US, near an elementary school across the street, with an apartment building in the way. I can hear kids out running around and playing in the yard. They get pretty noisy, but I'm fine with it. Right next to the elementary school is an apartment complex where a guy seems to be running a motorcycle repair business based out of his apartment's garage. The garage faces the street, facing my home. He tests the loud motorcycle engines about 1 - 2 times running a few minutes each time, about 3 - 5 times a week. One of these days, I'm going to super glue his garage shut so that he can't get the motorcycles in and out of the garage. Ok, well, just kidding. I will just have to deal with it. But still, it is dang annoying to hear the motorcycle engines revving up as described above. I can't imagine how I can deal with a motorcycle/car repair shop across from my home. Zoning laws are often used as a tool by people who practice NIMBYism, but the laws were introduced for a reason, and I support zoning laws because it would mean keeping certain types of businesses bit placed away from homes.

gomox 8y ago
Loud motorcycles should be violently taxed and restricted to low density zones of operation. I can't think of any other behavior that is as destructive to the common good for so little benefit to the individual. "I like loud sounds" is not good enough reason to inflict them on everyone else.
- SeeDave 8y ago
  I agree, wholeheartedly and have a hard time understanding the thought process and worldview of someone who rides a loud motorcycle even five blocks in a dense urban neighborhood at night. In one neighborhood I lived in... each building was 4 stories, with 5 apartments facing the road. There are two sides of the road. There were four apartment buildings per block. 5 * 4 * 5 * 2 * 4 = 800 homes being affected! Yikes!
- dba7dba 8y ago
  I mean, I'm ok with occasional loud motorcycles driving through the neighborhood. But this case is more than that. So, this particular neighbor is not riding a motorcycle through the neighborhood. Other riders do and I'm ok with that. But this particular neighbor revs the motorcycle engines "while standing still to test them". A few minutes at a time, about 3 - 5 times a week. Now imagine zoning law was gone. It might mean a user car mechanic moving in to operate a repair business, while leaving numerous unused cars on the street. It could mean someone opening a hair salon a door down from me. Or maybe another person opening a martial arts studio above me. Zoning laws used as a tool by NIMBYers is not good. But the laws have a valid place in our society.