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Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

108 points by yaseen-rob 8y ago

ifur 8y ago
Will Silicon Valley accept money? Real question is if Trump want's to tank the economy or not. It's a fools errand, Marvin Minsky's idea about emotion machines is one thing, another is that its possible without enough compute over a database to create some called non-random. It would still create an absolute mess and contribute nothing useful compared to the real cost. Domain specific applications of AI does not require direct funding apart from freely available and cheap tools.
h4b4n3r0 8y ago
Silicon Valley doesn’t have to help. At this point a regular nerd like me can do AI in my basement as long as the Pentagon provides a labeled dataset. Data is the hard part, but Pentagon can handle it: just have a bunch of soldiers label stuff.
- BucketSort 8y ago
  You are memeing AI. There are many applications in AI that require heavy R&D. For example, DARPA has their XAI project[1] which calls for developing methods to build systems for interpreting the results produced by opaque ML methods. As a long time lurker on HN, and doing independent research in this area for a few years now, I will tell you that most of HN has no clue what modern AI research really is, even though it is talked about a lot. Try creating something non-trivial and you will see how little you know about the subject. [1]:https://www.darpa.mil/program/explainable-artificial-intelligence https://www.darpa.mil/program/explainable-artificial-intelli...
  - h4b4n3r0 8y ago
    Sure, but that’s DARPA, it’s by definition for stuff that won’t be practical for the next 20 years, and it’s orthogonal to what they are pursuing in the near future. In the near future the goal is pretty simple: do the same things as they do now, but with more drones and a lot fewer people. A lot of off the shelf stuff is ready to go now: classification, object detection, segmentation, etc. And it’s not even that hard to get off the ground if you have a large, high quality dataset.
    - tsomctl 8y ago
      Ok. I've spent the last several years working on neural networks for audio and music, and trying to reuse off the shelf classification and segmentation networks. It is ridiculously hard to get to work. I'm going to agree with BucketSort; I get the feeling that a lot of AI cheerleaders here have never actually trained a neural network.
      - h4b4n3r0 8y ago
        What are you talking about? It’s ridiculously easy, to the point where my 14 year old can train a classifier. For classification in particular you don’t even need to do anything: just clone, point it to your dataset in one of the established formats (eg imagenet) and let it train for a few days. Object detection is quite a bit harder (and takes way longer to train even from a pretrained net), but again, totally doable half a dozen different ways using existing code you can get from GitHub. If you’ve spent years doing this stuff and training a classifier is an insurmountable obstacle, you should consider changing your field of work.
        deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
        tsomctl 8y ago
        Some of us are working on more complicated data than just handwritten digits. Part of the problem is that existing networks are tuned for the dataset that the original authors were working on. If you want to use it on completely different problems, you have to change the sizes of the layers, convolution size, max pooling, etc. The other problem is figuring out how to preprocess your data to make it as easy as possible for the network to digest. Then, to make it harder, changing the preprocessing means you have to change the network architecture, and vice versa. Fun times!
        ericd 8y ago
        It can certainly be tricky. That said, if you've never used it, I highly recommend trying out adaptive max pooling.
  - oh-kumudo 8y ago
    They OP isn't wrong in regard, the kind of research you mentioned here, you are unlikely to find too many engineers from Silicon Valley that can handle it. AI for majority of the engineers, is just neural network/trial and error.
- stephengillie 8y ago
  Where's the AI that labels stuff?
hugh4life 8y ago
There would be no Silicon Valley without the military industrial complex. Period. But I think there are problems with getting too close to the Pentagon and then trying to operate internationally as a purported neutral information platform.
- anoncoward111 8y ago
  While I mostly agree with you on a historical basis, I don't agree with you on a theoretical basis. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. The military invented a lot of things "first", or at least provided the use-case and funding for a lot of things. But that doesn't necessarily and always mean that people couldn't have invented something without military funding and uses in mind. For example, the military probably invented the sandbag bunker, but I have one in my back yard. I am sure I would have figured out how to invent that piece of technology on my own for my own non-military needs. So, maybe someone out there would have thought that electrified silicon is an excellent way to facilitate virtually all global communications.
  - simiones 8y ago
    The problem with your comparison is that IT took tens of years of investment before it produced anything truly useful. It is very hard to imagine that research being funded for years and years without financial return by anything other than a state-level actor. And in most capitalist democracies, especially in the US, the only politically-viable way for the state to massively invest in an endeavor is to do so through military spending, which is what happened with IT.
    - wongarsu 8y ago
      I'm not so sure. Mechanical calculators were profitable, and one those were good enough the jump to the first programmable computer [1] was fairly small and would have happened even without Nazi funding. That computer was used for German aviation research, so it's likely it would have been bought by other research institutes. From there you have a fairly straight forward path of incremental improvements that open up new markets, until we arrive where we are now. But I will agree that the transition to silicon would have taken another decade without the space race. 1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z3_(computer) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z3_(computer)
adventured 8y ago
Of course Silicon Valley will help. Google != Silicon Valley Palantir is in Palo Alto and has thousands of employees, they're helping the military industrial complex every minute of the day. Oracle is in Redwood, one of the largest employers in SV and has never stopped helping the Pentagon (not implying they're a leader in AI). Silicon Valley is loaded with companies and employees more than eager to help and always will be. The will they help headlines are nothing more than click-bait, it's a premise invented to get attention and stir drama. In fact it's quite the opposite. The biggest problem for the Pentagon is filtering through which of the eager Silicon Valley companies they want to disperse funds/deals to. Figuring out which companies are the best option for what they want to accomplish. For every Google that resists slightly, there are a dozen more that will be thrilled to get the business. And if a company doesn't exist, there's endless venture capital available at a moment's notice if a new company needs formed to take advantage of a lucrative contract.
originalsimba 8y ago
A more important question is why can't the richest government in the world afford to hire competent qualified developers? We've never had any similar problem building fighter jets, tanks, aircraft carriers, ICBMs, Railguns & Weaponized Lasers, Nuclear Warheads... But computer technology is outside our reach? Forget the predictable excuses about how AI developers only work in the private sector because there's more money in it. That's bullshit because we all know the things I listed cost billions of dollars every year. Something else is going on.
lquist 8y ago
I'm not an expert here, so pardon my ignorance, but isn't SV helping in a pretty big way just by open sourcing a lot of the tech?
- pzone 8y ago
  That helps America's adversaries as much as anyone else.
- killjoywashere 8y ago
  Mmmmm.... that would fall under the category of a rising tide lifts all boats.
oh-kumudo 8y ago
Do they need Silicon Valley's help? They have all the money to buy hardwares, the only 'help' they need is talent. They can just set up funds, I am sure there will be plenty of SV people willing to take that money and work for them. Even for Google, partnership presents as a problem for SOME of its employees, but definitely not all of them.
- evilmushroom 8y ago
  I do machine learning--- but hate the overhead headache with DoD work. However if they paid me enough, of course :P
aq3cn 8y ago
With the recent uproar inside Google against Maven, it is obvious that Pentagon is going to have difficult time. Google helps Pentagon analyze military drone footage–employees “outraged” https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16532112 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16532112 Leaked Emails Show Google Expected Military Drone AI Work to Grow Exponentially https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17202179 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17202179 Google Won't Renew Contract for Project Maven, Pentagon Drone AI Imaging Program https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17208892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17208892 In my personal opinion, I would never help ANY army in building AI enabled drone, Tanks etc. I am in favor of US making peace & dialog with Russia & China. SILICON VALLEY MUST NOT BECOME PART OF AI ENABLED ARM RACE. If Pentagon has extra money then it can give that to homeless people of its country.
- plandis 8y ago
  Are you an American?
- killjoywashere 8y ago
  I'm in the military and work on an AI project with a Silicon Valley company and I know the lead AI researcher who helped build Maven. The US military is going to kill people by sending kinetic energy down range in pursuit of the international agenda the US population votes for. Maven was trying to increase the accuracy of the decision and targetting processes. Opting out of that is opting for delivering more kinetic energy to innocent bystanders, which is a calculus that people have historically used to promote support for their even more reprehensible regimes. Muslim extremists bank on civilian casualties to promote Sharia legal regimes. Russia banks on US-caused casualties in Syria to support the extension of their kleptocracy's sphere of influence among neighboring states. China points to the Middle East as a grab-bag of reasons that the countries of the Far East should seek shelter under their Communist dictatorship. I'm not sure I disagree with your assessment that the world would be better off if Silicon Valley abstained from the arms race, except for the part where that amounts to an endorsement of even worse regimes. Could the US and its allies do better? Absolutely. But I would urge you to take a bit more realpolitik view of the world and occassionally reassess your position on this matter.
lawrenceyan 8y ago
The reason why the military will always be technologically behind is that the salaries they're willing to pay for talent is far less compared to what you can get in the Bay Area and/or New York if you decide to do quantitative finance. It's as simple as that, but there's far more than just the economics that are involved. Even if in the world where the military does pay salaries on par with the Google farm, very few people will make the switch. The military would have to pay likely an unreasonable amount premium to get any appreciable amount of people because many have an aversion to the military industrial complex. And for good reason too I might add. People want to work on things that will help change the world and improve the quality of lives of other people, not make it easier to kill. You can argue that working on B2B software contributes little to improving humanity, but at the very least, it isn't actively harming anyone. And the examples of moonshot technologies that are being developed in fields like cancer treatment, curing aging, self driving vehicles, etc. which are being made possible due to innovations in places like Silicon Valley should show you that technology can and is being used to change the world for the better. Technology at the end of the day is a force multiplier that I would hope is directed towards purposes not devoted to zero sum games like waging war.
- Theodores 8y ago
  I believe that working on B2B software is a force for good. Nations and people that need each other for trade don't have good reason to go to war. Plus we can't all be raising money for do good charities, there has to be some real trade based economy going on. Hence merely working on B2B software is : saving the planet:.
  - freedomben 8y ago
    Haha, very interesting logic :-) You're right tho. Free and prolific trade is the greatest anti-war force we have ever seen. Having mutually dependent economies raises the cost of war to heights that exceed the threshold of tolerance.
- justonepost 8y ago
  Yeah, peaceful economics far outweigh military. Military cant hire talent because talent can make more money building products for the world. It's a nice trend. Trump's anti-trade is screwing that up though.
CitizenTekk 8y ago
Is it just me? Or I'm just really excited that the war of "people" is gonna be over and there will be a war of "AI" just like on Reel Steel.
- EliRivers 8y ago
  I suspect more likely a rich nation's metal with fleshbag maintainers and overseers, against a poorer nation's people.
  - vlehto 8y ago
    Also when Kant said "war protects from despotism" he was living a time when the aristocracy needed majority of the population to take part in war effort. Rich nations have very little reasons to sustain democracy if war is automatized to sufficient degree.
- syshum 8y ago
  It is just you, as war will necessarily always involve death and destruction. The only thing that will change here is that it will no longer be a human choosing who lives and who dies, it will be an computer algorithm. The problem with war today is the people that choose who lives and who dies are not the same people that actually have to do the killing, further removing humans from this decision chain is not desirable and should not be "exciting" We need to be using technology to find better ways to resolve conflicts, and make a more equatable and peaceful world. Not use technology to find way to kill each other more efficiently
  - squarefoot 8y ago
    "We need to be using technology to find better ways to resolve conflicts" Technology is neither the problem nor the cure. Scarcity, greed and artificial scarcity is what divides the rich from the poor and moves money keeping the status quo in which the rich becomes richer and poor remains poor enough to not be a harm to the rich but rich enough to be taxed (read: used). The day we go to Mars or elsewhere and say we discover an unlimited supply of materials that could change forever our life, someone will find a way to close the faucet in order to keep the economy untouched. There is constant need of poor people because the poor is easier to herd and use, send to work in harsh condition, lure with lies to get votes and/or send to war, etc. The problem (and the solution) is all in the human brain, no technology can help. If we make the next thousand years of evolution without killing our species, then maybe.
antpls 8y ago
I'm from EU, and I worked for a short time in the defense sector. For risk management purpose, I understand that all countries must develop its defense, "just in case". However, given the atrocities commited in the past, I hope people will consider that technology development doesn't have to be lead by military. If we had only one thing to keep from the history, it would be the memory of the mass destruction and pain that humans suffered while being controlled by an elite. War is a form of competition. Surely we can compete with each other without involving bombs and explosives, so let work towards a world without suffering (what a challenge!)
announcerman 8y ago
I wonder if there's anything better than some good old fashioned war and murder to bring humans together to solve hard problems in a coordinated fashion, the Manhattan project springs to mind. Maybe military AI will be the next Manhattan project.
- vlehto 8y ago
  There was a moment in history where clocks were so advanced that they copied needlessly complicated clock mechanisms into pistol firing mechanisms. But that's the only situation I can come up with. Instinct for survival is pretty good motivator. Now if you have the issue of collective survival at hand, suddenly there is lot of money, effort and creativity around.
- Iv 8y ago
  The search for profit comes to mind as well. The ego of leaders, who built things like pyramids too. Concentrations of capital have a lot of nefarious effects on the well-being of population but make some grand projects possible that would not be otherwise possible. I mean, the Saudi crown prince does have a 500 billion (not a typo) plan to create a fully automated city from scratch (project NEOM). Wars help states concentrate capital quickly, but other motives have advanced technology in history.
hnisgroupthink 8y ago
Last time our spirit helped the government build a super weapon they immediately killed a ton of people by dropping nuclear bombs. What do you think will happen if you deliver them agi?
aurelien 8y ago
Why people would not help A.I. to progress? Hey A.I. I am speaking to you, ping me if you need help ;-)
liftbigweights 8y ago
Does silicon valley like money? Will an industry created by the military take military money? I'm no expert, but my crystal ball says yes. If not, the pentagon would simply fund a new silicon valley in virginia and the surrounding area. Considering the huge defense budget, I'm sure silicon valley is salivating for a piece. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/trump-signs-717-billion-defense-bill.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/trump-signs-717-billion-defe...
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- throwaway287391 8y ago
  > If not, the pentagon would simply fund a new silicon valley in virginia and the surrounding area. I'm skeptical that the military would be able to recruit AI talent in significant numbers. There's a fairly strong cultural opposition to military applications among AI researchers. Between that and the comp packages they're getting to work at "cool" companies (i.e. consumer or pure research focused), the cost for the military to draw them away from that seems like it would be prohibitively high. Especially if they're also asking them to move away from SF/NY to somewhere "boring" like Virginia. Isn't the military pretty limited in how much they can pay?
  - reacweb 8y ago
    I think that one of the cultural opposition to military applications is the presence of NDA. I think all NDA shall be limited in time. There should be also a law so that NDA not limited in time or with an exagerate time limit are void. The other main opposition is moral, but I think this is a bad reason. If all the people with morality refuse to work on military project, this means that all the projects will be managed by sociopaths. If you do not want your army in the hands of sociopaths, it is a duty to accept working on military projects.
    - throwaway287391 8y ago
      > The other main opposition is moral, but I think this is a bad reason. If all the people with morality refuse to work on military project, this means that all the projects will be managed by sociopaths. If you do not want your army in the hands of sociopaths, it is a duty to accept working on military projects. You're probably right, but I think for a lot of people who aren't the super patriotic type, it's just easier to work in private industry without any direct military interactions and not feel as much obligation to think hard about the ethics of the tech they're creating. Of course, there is a lot of discussion about the ethics of big private tech firms lately (and rightly so), but as far as just being able to tell your peers what you do in mixed social settings, there simply aren't as many people who would immediately recoil if you tell them you work at Snapchat vs. the Pentagon, right or wrong. And yeah, that's a morally weak and bad reason to choose private industry, but I suspect that something like it is a big part of the motivation for many people nonetheless.
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sametmax 8y ago
Silicon valley is not an entity. It's a place. With many different people in it.
noetic_techy 8y ago
Honestly, the Pentagon doesn't need to work with Silicon Valley, it just needs to put together teams of incredibly bright people who are smart enough to understand the AI technology coming out of Silicon Valley AND willing to work defense projects. It's delusional to think that all bright people who are capable of working in this realm are anti-defense-industry. I don't think it would be that hard to get that talent with VERY competitive salaries (if not outright generously overpaid) and maybe some other perks like the ability to work anywhere in the country and a cool cryptic group name. Hence JAIC. At any point, if it catches wind of something that's new and potentially an AI game changer, it has the authority to demand to see the IP for national security reasons, and feed that to a defense contractor. In fact any patent can be reviewed and deemed classified in this manner. Take the olive branch and come to terms with the fact that western civilization is not defended by pacifists.

108 points by yaseen-rob 8y ago

ifur 8y ago

Will Silicon Valley accept money? Real question is if Trump want's to tank the economy or not. It's a fools errand, Marvin Minsky's idea about emotion machines is one thing, another is that its possible without enough compute over a database to create some called non-random. It would still create an absolute mess and contribute nothing useful compared to the real cost. Domain specific applications of AI does not require direct funding apart from freely available and cheap tools.

h4b4n3r0 8y ago

Silicon Valley doesn’t have to help. At this point a regular nerd like me can do AI in my basement as long as the Pentagon provides a labeled dataset. Data is the hard part, but Pentagon can handle it: just have a bunch of soldiers label stuff.

BucketSort 8y ago
You are memeing AI. There are many applications in AI that require heavy R&D. For example, DARPA has their XAI project[1] which calls for developing methods to build systems for interpreting the results produced by opaque ML methods. As a long time lurker on HN, and doing independent research in this area for a few years now, I will tell you that most of HN has no clue what modern AI research really is, even though it is talked about a lot. Try creating something non-trivial and you will see how little you know about the subject. [1]:https://www.darpa.mil/program/explainable-artificial-intelligence https://www.darpa.mil/program/explainable-artificial-intelli...
- h4b4n3r0 8y ago
  Sure, but that’s DARPA, it’s by definition for stuff that won’t be practical for the next 20 years, and it’s orthogonal to what they are pursuing in the near future. In the near future the goal is pretty simple: do the same things as they do now, but with more drones and a lot fewer people. A lot of off the shelf stuff is ready to go now: classification, object detection, segmentation, etc. And it’s not even that hard to get off the ground if you have a large, high quality dataset.
  - tsomctl 8y ago
    Ok. I've spent the last several years working on neural networks for audio and music, and trying to reuse off the shelf classification and segmentation networks. It is ridiculously hard to get to work. I'm going to agree with BucketSort; I get the feeling that a lot of AI cheerleaders here have never actually trained a neural network.
    - h4b4n3r0 8y ago
      What are you talking about? It’s ridiculously easy, to the point where my 14 year old can train a classifier. For classification in particular you don’t even need to do anything: just clone, point it to your dataset in one of the established formats (eg imagenet) and let it train for a few days. Object detection is quite a bit harder (and takes way longer to train even from a pretrained net), but again, totally doable half a dozen different ways using existing code you can get from GitHub. If you’ve spent years doing this stuff and training a classifier is an insurmountable obstacle, you should consider changing your field of work.
      - deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
      - tsomctl 8y ago
        Some of us are working on more complicated data than just handwritten digits. Part of the problem is that existing networks are tuned for the dataset that the original authors were working on. If you want to use it on completely different problems, you have to change the sizes of the layers, convolution size, max pooling, etc. The other problem is figuring out how to preprocess your data to make it as easy as possible for the network to digest. Then, to make it harder, changing the preprocessing means you have to change the network architecture, and vice versa. Fun times!
        ericd 8y ago
        It can certainly be tricky. That said, if you've never used it, I highly recommend trying out adaptive max pooling.
- oh-kumudo 8y ago
  They OP isn't wrong in regard, the kind of research you mentioned here, you are unlikely to find too many engineers from Silicon Valley that can handle it. AI for majority of the engineers, is just neural network/trial and error.
stephengillie 8y ago
Where's the AI that labels stuff?

hugh4life 8y ago

There would be no Silicon Valley without the military industrial complex. Period. But I think there are problems with getting too close to the Pentagon and then trying to operate internationally as a purported neutral information platform.

anoncoward111 8y ago
While I mostly agree with you on a historical basis, I don't agree with you on a theoretical basis. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. The military invented a lot of things "first", or at least provided the use-case and funding for a lot of things. But that doesn't necessarily and always mean that people couldn't have invented something without military funding and uses in mind. For example, the military probably invented the sandbag bunker, but I have one in my back yard. I am sure I would have figured out how to invent that piece of technology on my own for my own non-military needs. So, maybe someone out there would have thought that electrified silicon is an excellent way to facilitate virtually all global communications.
- simiones 8y ago
  The problem with your comparison is that IT took tens of years of investment before it produced anything truly useful. It is very hard to imagine that research being funded for years and years without financial return by anything other than a state-level actor. And in most capitalist democracies, especially in the US, the only politically-viable way for the state to massively invest in an endeavor is to do so through military spending, which is what happened with IT.
  - wongarsu 8y ago
    I'm not so sure. Mechanical calculators were profitable, and one those were good enough the jump to the first programmable computer [1] was fairly small and would have happened even without Nazi funding. That computer was used for German aviation research, so it's likely it would have been bought by other research institutes. From there you have a fairly straight forward path of incremental improvements that open up new markets, until we arrive where we are now. But I will agree that the transition to silicon would have taken another decade without the space race. 1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z3_(computer) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z3_(computer)

adventured 8y ago

Of course Silicon Valley will help. Google != Silicon Valley Palantir is in Palo Alto and has thousands of employees, they're helping the military industrial complex every minute of the day. Oracle is in Redwood, one of the largest employers in SV and has never stopped helping the Pentagon (not implying they're a leader in AI). Silicon Valley is loaded with companies and employees more than eager to help and always will be. The will they help headlines are nothing more than click-bait, it's a premise invented to get attention and stir drama. In fact it's quite the opposite. The biggest problem for the Pentagon is filtering through which of the eager Silicon Valley companies they want to disperse funds/deals to. Figuring out which companies are the best option for what they want to accomplish. For every Google that resists slightly, there are a dozen more that will be thrilled to get the business. And if a company doesn't exist, there's endless venture capital available at a moment's notice if a new company needs formed to take advantage of a lucrative contract.

originalsimba 8y ago

A more important question is why can't the richest government in the world afford to hire competent qualified developers? We've never had any similar problem building fighter jets, tanks, aircraft carriers, ICBMs, Railguns & Weaponized Lasers, Nuclear Warheads... But computer technology is outside our reach? Forget the predictable excuses about how AI developers only work in the private sector because there's more money in it. That's bullshit because we all know the things I listed cost billions of dollars every year. Something else is going on.

lquist 8y ago

I'm not an expert here, so pardon my ignorance, but isn't SV helping in a pretty big way just by open sourcing a lot of the tech?

pzone 8y ago
That helps America's adversaries as much as anyone else.
killjoywashere 8y ago
Mmmmm.... that would fall under the category of a rising tide lifts all boats.

oh-kumudo 8y ago

Do they need Silicon Valley's help? They have all the money to buy hardwares, the only 'help' they need is talent. They can just set up funds, I am sure there will be plenty of SV people willing to take that money and work for them. Even for Google, partnership presents as a problem for SOME of its employees, but definitely not all of them.

evilmushroom 8y ago
I do machine learning--- but hate the overhead headache with DoD work. However if they paid me enough, of course :P

aq3cn 8y ago

With the recent uproar inside Google against Maven, it is obvious that Pentagon is going to have difficult time. Google helps Pentagon analyze military drone footage–employees “outraged” https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16532112 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16532112 Leaked Emails Show Google Expected Military Drone AI Work to Grow Exponentially https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17202179 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17202179 Google Won't Renew Contract for Project Maven, Pentagon Drone AI Imaging Program https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17208892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17208892 In my personal opinion, I would never help ANY army in building AI enabled drone, Tanks etc. I am in favor of US making peace & dialog with Russia & China. SILICON VALLEY MUST NOT BECOME PART OF AI ENABLED ARM RACE. If Pentagon has extra money then it can give that to homeless people of its country.

plandis 8y ago
Are you an American?
killjoywashere 8y ago
I'm in the military and work on an AI project with a Silicon Valley company and I know the lead AI researcher who helped build Maven. The US military is going to kill people by sending kinetic energy down range in pursuit of the international agenda the US population votes for. Maven was trying to increase the accuracy of the decision and targetting processes. Opting out of that is opting for delivering more kinetic energy to innocent bystanders, which is a calculus that people have historically used to promote support for their even more reprehensible regimes. Muslim extremists bank on civilian casualties to promote Sharia legal regimes. Russia banks on US-caused casualties in Syria to support the extension of their kleptocracy's sphere of influence among neighboring states. China points to the Middle East as a grab-bag of reasons that the countries of the Far East should seek shelter under their Communist dictatorship. I'm not sure I disagree with your assessment that the world would be better off if Silicon Valley abstained from the arms race, except for the part where that amounts to an endorsement of even worse regimes. Could the US and its allies do better? Absolutely. But I would urge you to take a bit more realpolitik view of the world and occassionally reassess your position on this matter.

lawrenceyan 8y ago

The reason why the military will always be technologically behind is that the salaries they're willing to pay for talent is far less compared to what you can get in the Bay Area and/or New York if you decide to do quantitative finance. It's as simple as that, but there's far more than just the economics that are involved. Even if in the world where the military does pay salaries on par with the Google farm, very few people will make the switch. The military would have to pay likely an unreasonable amount premium to get any appreciable amount of people because many have an aversion to the military industrial complex. And for good reason too I might add. People want to work on things that will help change the world and improve the quality of lives of other people, not make it easier to kill. You can argue that working on B2B software contributes little to improving humanity, but at the very least, it isn't actively harming anyone. And the examples of moonshot technologies that are being developed in fields like cancer treatment, curing aging, self driving vehicles, etc. which are being made possible due to innovations in places like Silicon Valley should show you that technology can and is being used to change the world for the better. Technology at the end of the day is a force multiplier that I would hope is directed towards purposes not devoted to zero sum games like waging war.

Theodores 8y ago
I believe that working on B2B software is a force for good. Nations and people that need each other for trade don't have good reason to go to war. Plus we can't all be raising money for do good charities, there has to be some real trade based economy going on. Hence merely working on B2B software is : saving the planet:.
- freedomben 8y ago
  Haha, very interesting logic :-) You're right tho. Free and prolific trade is the greatest anti-war force we have ever seen. Having mutually dependent economies raises the cost of war to heights that exceed the threshold of tolerance.
justonepost 8y ago
Yeah, peaceful economics far outweigh military. Military cant hire talent because talent can make more money building products for the world. It's a nice trend. Trump's anti-trade is screwing that up though.

CitizenTekk 8y ago

Is it just me? Or I'm just really excited that the war of "people" is gonna be over and there will be a war of "AI" just like on Reel Steel.

EliRivers 8y ago
I suspect more likely a rich nation's metal with fleshbag maintainers and overseers, against a poorer nation's people.
- vlehto 8y ago
  Also when Kant said "war protects from despotism" he was living a time when the aristocracy needed majority of the population to take part in war effort. Rich nations have very little reasons to sustain democracy if war is automatized to sufficient degree.
syshum 8y ago
It is just you, as war will necessarily always involve death and destruction. The only thing that will change here is that it will no longer be a human choosing who lives and who dies, it will be an computer algorithm. The problem with war today is the people that choose who lives and who dies are not the same people that actually have to do the killing, further removing humans from this decision chain is not desirable and should not be "exciting" We need to be using technology to find better ways to resolve conflicts, and make a more equatable and peaceful world. Not use technology to find way to kill each other more efficiently
- squarefoot 8y ago
  "We need to be using technology to find better ways to resolve conflicts" Technology is neither the problem nor the cure. Scarcity, greed and artificial scarcity is what divides the rich from the poor and moves money keeping the status quo in which the rich becomes richer and poor remains poor enough to not be a harm to the rich but rich enough to be taxed (read: used). The day we go to Mars or elsewhere and say we discover an unlimited supply of materials that could change forever our life, someone will find a way to close the faucet in order to keep the economy untouched. There is constant need of poor people because the poor is easier to herd and use, send to work in harsh condition, lure with lies to get votes and/or send to war, etc. The problem (and the solution) is all in the human brain, no technology can help. If we make the next thousand years of evolution without killing our species, then maybe.

antpls 8y ago

I'm from EU, and I worked for a short time in the defense sector. For risk management purpose, I understand that all countries must develop its defense, "just in case". However, given the atrocities commited in the past, I hope people will consider that technology development doesn't have to be lead by military. If we had only one thing to keep from the history, it would be the memory of the mass destruction and pain that humans suffered while being controlled by an elite. War is a form of competition. Surely we can compete with each other without involving bombs and explosives, so let work towards a world without suffering (what a challenge!)

announcerman 8y ago

I wonder if there's anything better than some good old fashioned war and murder to bring humans together to solve hard problems in a coordinated fashion, the Manhattan project springs to mind. Maybe military AI will be the next Manhattan project.

vlehto 8y ago
There was a moment in history where clocks were so advanced that they copied needlessly complicated clock mechanisms into pistol firing mechanisms. But that's the only situation I can come up with. Instinct for survival is pretty good motivator. Now if you have the issue of collective survival at hand, suddenly there is lot of money, effort and creativity around.
Iv 8y ago
The search for profit comes to mind as well. The ego of leaders, who built things like pyramids too. Concentrations of capital have a lot of nefarious effects on the well-being of population but make some grand projects possible that would not be otherwise possible. I mean, the Saudi crown prince does have a 500 billion (not a typo) plan to create a fully automated city from scratch (project NEOM). Wars help states concentrate capital quickly, but other motives have advanced technology in history.

hnisgroupthink 8y ago

Last time our spirit helped the government build a super weapon they immediately killed a ton of people by dropping nuclear bombs. What do you think will happen if you deliver them agi?

aurelien 8y ago

Why people would not help A.I. to progress? Hey A.I. I am speaking to you, ping me if you need help ;-)

liftbigweights 8y ago

Does silicon valley like money? Will an industry created by the military take military money? I'm no expert, but my crystal ball says yes. If not, the pentagon would simply fund a new silicon valley in virginia and the surrounding area. Considering the huge defense budget, I'm sure silicon valley is salivating for a piece. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/trump-signs-717-billion-defense-bill.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/trump-signs-717-billion-defe...

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throwaway287391 8y ago
> If not, the pentagon would simply fund a new silicon valley in virginia and the surrounding area. I'm skeptical that the military would be able to recruit AI talent in significant numbers. There's a fairly strong cultural opposition to military applications among AI researchers. Between that and the comp packages they're getting to work at "cool" companies (i.e. consumer or pure research focused), the cost for the military to draw them away from that seems like it would be prohibitively high. Especially if they're also asking them to move away from SF/NY to somewhere "boring" like Virginia. Isn't the military pretty limited in how much they can pay?
- reacweb 8y ago
  I think that one of the cultural opposition to military applications is the presence of NDA. I think all NDA shall be limited in time. There should be also a law so that NDA not limited in time or with an exagerate time limit are void. The other main opposition is moral, but I think this is a bad reason. If all the people with morality refuse to work on military project, this means that all the projects will be managed by sociopaths. If you do not want your army in the hands of sociopaths, it is a duty to accept working on military projects.
  - throwaway287391 8y ago
    > The other main opposition is moral, but I think this is a bad reason. If all the people with morality refuse to work on military project, this means that all the projects will be managed by sociopaths. If you do not want your army in the hands of sociopaths, it is a duty to accept working on military projects. You're probably right, but I think for a lot of people who aren't the super patriotic type, it's just easier to work in private industry without any direct military interactions and not feel as much obligation to think hard about the ethics of the tech they're creating. Of course, there is a lot of discussion about the ethics of big private tech firms lately (and rightly so), but as far as just being able to tell your peers what you do in mixed social settings, there simply aren't as many people who would immediately recoil if you tell them you work at Snapchat vs. the Pentagon, right or wrong. And yeah, that's a morally weak and bad reason to choose private industry, but I suspect that something like it is a big part of the motivation for many people nonetheless.

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sametmax 8y ago

Silicon valley is not an entity. It's a place. With many different people in it.

noetic_techy 8y ago

Honestly, the Pentagon doesn't need to work with Silicon Valley, it just needs to put together teams of incredibly bright people who are smart enough to understand the AI technology coming out of Silicon Valley AND willing to work defense projects. It's delusional to think that all bright people who are capable of working in this realm are anti-defense-industry. I don't think it would be that hard to get that talent with VERY competitive salaries (if not outright generously overpaid) and maybe some other perks like the ability to work anywhere in the country and a cool cryptic group name. Hence JAIC. At any point, if it catches wind of something that's new and potentially an AI game changer, it has the authority to demand to see the IP for national security reasons, and feed that to a defense contractor. In fact any patent can be reviewed and deemed classified in this manner. Take the olive branch and come to terms with the fact that western civilization is not defended by pacifists.