33 ms·
Are we alone? Tiny spacecraft will head to Alpha Centauri to find out
- DerekL 8y agoThe link goes to an entirely different article.
- Jaruzel 8y agoSeems fixed now.
- ForHackernews 8y agoCNET has some kind of infinite scroll thing that messes with what "page" you're actually on. I'm not sure if there's a better permalink?
- Cheyana 8y agohttps://www.cnet.com/news/sending-tiny-spacecraft-to-alpha-centauri/ https://www.cnet.com/news/sending-tiny-spacecraft-to-alpha-c...
- karimdag 8y agoRelevant (and quite enjoyable) read: The Three Body Problem (novel) https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-Cixin-Liu/dp/0765382032 https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-Cixin-Liu/dp/07653...
- holman 8y agoThis book series fundamentally changed how I view the question of life in the Universe. I really loved the series. I can see why some others weren’t into it, but I think it’s been my favorite books I’ve read in years and years.
- ajuc 8y agoMy problem with the series is the premise that invasion of another star system is worth it. With all the resources Trisolarians put into colonization of Earth, and all their superior technology - they could've made space habitats that had perfectly safe orbits around whichever star they prefer, and put all of their citizens on them. What's the point of risking mutual destruction by hunter in the dark forest (and we know they were afraid of it since the start), if you can create habitats in your own star system, or choose any nearby uninhabited star system if the 3-body-problem is really making it impossible to put these in your own system (and realistically - it wouldn't be so bad, just make a dyson swarm around the whole system.
- lsadam0 8y agoInvading our Solar System was worth the risk for Tri-Solaris. Because of the Dark Forest nature of the universe they could not just pick a star where they thought there was no life, as life there could just be especially good at hiding. When they found earth they found a luxurious planet containing a race which was ignorant of the true state of the universe and technologically incapable of doing anything about it anyway. On top of all of this, our solar system was very close by :). Their own star system was hellish compared to ours, they needed to leave. The final book in the series does a good job showing why Earth was a good option for them. Tri-Solarians knew far more about Earth than they could reliably determine about most nearby star systems.
- ajuc 8y agoIf you're afraid that a planet will have life, then why choose a planet where you are sure there is life? They were betting their existence on a species they knew already uses MAD as a basis for its' survival not figuring out that it could use MAD to defend themselves. Their system was interesting, but ultimately not much worse than ours, once you leave the planet. And they have to leave the planet anyway. Once you have nanomaterials allowing cheap access to space - putting your population in space habitats is cheap and easy. We could do it now, if we had space elevator. The cost of materials and energy is negligible compared to invasion of another star system. Especially with such conveniently storeable population :) > Tri-Solarians knew far more about Earth than they could reliably determine about most nearby star systems. There's nothing stopping them from figuring it out. You don't have to invade a system, you can send a stealthy probe. I would assume in their circumstances it would be a wise thing to do if they really don't want to live in space further away from the center of gravity of their star system. Besides, if the dark forest is so important - why invade Earth at all and play with fire? You can kill everybody on Earth without bothering to show up or sending any warnings. Send a big meteor their way or make a deadly disease that looks like flu, infect everybody, and on set date kill all hosts. Much cheaper, and no risk of ceasing to exist. What they did in the books was very risky and wasteful for no good reason.
- madeuptempacct 8y agoThis is the one book I have seen praised here endlessly. I am sincerely hoping it can stand with Neal Stephenson's work. I don't think there is any other author I can recommend unequivocally.
- tralarpa 8y ago> hoping it can stand with Neal Stephenson's work Thanks, always looking for new stuff to read. (edit: not really new, but new to me :) Concerning The Three-Body Problem, I found it a bit disappointing. Great build up with a rather traditional solution making some things of the build up looking a little bit silly.
- madeuptempacct 8y agoStart with Snow Crash or Diamond Age - some of Neal Stephen's later work is too focused on the science/history, while neglecting the characters and the story, which is fine for most people here, but it might give the wrong impression of him as an author.
- lsadam0 8y agoI can understand why you say Three-Body has a rather traditional solution, but I would argue said solution is misdirection. The first book is really just setting up the real meat of the story, in the 2nd and 3rd books.
- germinalphrase 8y agoI found the ideas were interesting, but the writing (plotting/characters) to be ho-hum. It’s a translation, of course - but I’m not sure I would rate it quite as highly others here.
- zengid 8y agoIf you like Neal Stephenson, you'll like Cixin Liu (especially when translated by Ken Liu), but you'll have to give Liu a fresh chance and let his work be its own thing. I love NS's work, and I've really enjoyed Cixin Liu's trilogy. Three Body Problem is very thrilling to read; fast paced with a lot of cliff hangers, and excellent world building. The sci-fi/speculative bits are extrodinary, and although the characters can sometimes feel like their only role is to give a 'first person perspective' of the science, Liu can surprise you with the emotional depth that his characters exude. The Dark Forest is in my opinion harder to get through than Three Body Problem, but the payoff is extraordinary. The pacing is slower with more world-building, and the perspective bounces around between a lot of characters without much forward movement. I had to put it down for a while and read some other books before I built up the motivation to finish it (it helped that I already bought the next book, so I felt guilty not finishing). Deaths End, the third book, is unbelievably amazing. The pacing is more similar to Three Body Problem, and the science is astounding. All of the patience necessary for Dark Forest pays off because Liu is able to bring his world-elements into a mesmerizing display of action and conflict. I'm only half-way through and I've lost count of the number of times I've had to take pause and simply exclaim "Wow!".
- test6554 8y agoYes, if there's other life in the universe, then we absolutely don't want to announce our presence to it. Due to exponential growth in technology and the old age of the universe, we are the plankton of the universe and they are likely the fish.
- jerf 8y agoI used to worry about that a bit when we discussed this a year or two ago, but then I realized that Earth has been broadcasting the fact that it is inhabited to any civilization only slightly more sophisticated than ours (like, literally only by a couple of years) who can see spectroscopy of our atmosphere when we transit in front of the Sun. Earth has been broadcasting that it has free oxygen for nearly two and a half billion years and we have no evidence of any attack.
- magduf 8y ago>Earth has been broadcasting that it has free oxygen for nearly two and a half billion years and we have no evidence of any attack. Have you forgotten about the K-T event? :-) The dinosaurs learned the hard way the danger of not having a significant space program. It seems we're not doing that much better.
- jerf 8y agoI run on the theory that if an alien civilization intended to destroy Earth, they would have succeeded. An alien civilization that reaches out once every few dozen million years years to sorta kinda whack the Earth seems about as likely as aliens hopping in their FTL spaceships and traveling the vast distances across the cosmos to our primitive little dirt ball, only to constantly crash into mountains located near secret military bases.
- lolc 8y agoThat analogy doesn't work for me. Why would somebody that can cross space stop by us? They don't need to eat exactly, do they?
- nategri 8y agoThe part where the Trisolarians try to make the Special Thing was hands down one of the dumbest things I've ever read in science fiction. The first 3rd of the book that dealt with cultural revolution fallout was awesome, though. But yeah---back half was bad enough to ruin the whole thing for me.
- salutonmundo 8y agoSurely nothing can top the latter half of Orson Scott Card's Xenocide.
- Semiapies 8y agoI thought it was hilarious, myself. The Amazing Artifact treated as a government project.
- salutonmundo 8y agoI liked that book, but if anything, it made me of the opinion that life in the Centauri system (or any three-body star system) is extremely unlikely.
- Semiapies 8y agoI liked the novel, but the whole setup is written under an inaccurate understanding of how the Centauri system is arranged. Proxima is a long way out from Alpha Centauri A and B (0.21 light years), orbiting their mutual center of mass, and A and B themselves are a fair distance apart (from 11.2 to 35.6 AU). Any of the three stars could have planets in close stable orbits; we already know Proxima has one. ETA: Actually, we know of another one around B. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Centauri#Planets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Centauri#Planets
- tinnet 8y agohope the space dust does not wipe off the writing on the front: "this is not a laser powered bullet to destroy your planet, should totally just fly past, we did the math"
- lolc 8y agoHaha, any atmosphere at all would disintegrate those things. Earth sees that calibre every minute. We'll totally aim right at the planets and won't hit them anyway. Edit: Well, I forgot the relativistic speed that ball would be traveling at. So if the planet's inhabitants actually lived in the upper atmosphere some might actually get burned.
- mattferderer 8y agoThis article introduces more questions than it answers to me. How do you travel that fast & not disintegrate or crash into something? Was Mr Manchester's experiment done using a laser to launch? Has this been done before at any scale? Even pushing an item a few hundred feet up? Is there a timeline for this to even get attempted? I think it sounds really awesome but that makes me wonder if any of this is feasible soon. Sending tiny Raspberry Pi like devices into space at fast speeds that could do cheap experiments more quickly, that would be nice.
- neurobashing 8y agoNot to mention, where are all the other Bracewell probes from all the other interstellar civilizations? If there's life shouldn't the local area be teeming with them, since they're cheap and easy for any culture that can do spaceflight? (also, for fans of The Expanse, something something protomolecule)
- snowwrestler 8y agoHow the heck would we detect a 3 foot spacecraft that weighs a few grams, passing anywhere through the Solar System at speeds over 10% of light? We might be getting them once a week and we would have no idea. We can't even find or track most of our own asteroids, and they're already in solar orbit.
- sp332 8y agoThe KickSat was deployed as a 3U cubesat into orbit. The point was just to launch a ton of satellites at once, not to test some kind of propulsion tech. The relevant propulsion research was the Ikaros http://global.jaxa.jp/press/2010/07/20100709_ikaros_e.html http://global.jaxa.jp/press/2010/07/20100709_ikaros_e.html It accelerated at 1/10 G using only solar radiation.
- bumholio 8y agoThis century, it will not. We are very far from a technology capable of achieving what Starshot proposes. Accelerating the spacecraft to a fraction of the speed of light using a laser would require power densities that would instantanously turn all known materials to plasma. The best mirrors and coatings are many orders of magnitude too dark. The required laser and energy bank would be, for all intents and purposes, a comics megaweapon capable of blowing spacecrafts from orbit, or, with proper space reflectors, incinerate enemy installations anywhere on the globe in seconds. The craft would be completely unable to brake so it will pass past the target planets in a matter of minutes. It's unclear what kind of sensors could be employed to detect anything and we certainly lack the technology to beam and receive back signals sent by a postage stamp craft 5 light years away. Let me rephrase that: we haven't got even a theoretical model of a system that would allow communication at such vast distances with milliwatt power sources. Needless to say, nobody is seriously working on this, nor will they for many decades at least.
- Razengan 8y agoIf the craft is packed with instructions on how to get back to us, maybe we could get some sort of exchange going over multiple centuries. On the other hand, if someone were to sent similar craft to us, would we even have a reasonable chance of detecting something that small without knowing exactly where, when and what to look for? ʻOumuamua may have been a probe, yet even with our suspicions about it being something out of the ordinary, we more-or-less collectively yawned and went about our daily strife without making any effort to collect it. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ʻOumuamua https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ʻOumuamua
- madeuptempacct 8y agoI have been obsessing over Oumuamua as well, but there's just not that much information, and we won't be getting more. Then there was the fact that it was tumbling and wasn't emitting anything - one would expect radar scans or radio transmissions, or at least something.
- 8y ago
- Razengan 8y agoThere is no way that we are "alone" in a universe estimated to have practically infinite planets. However, the distances between stars and the very short windows of time in which life may thrive (remember that we may have never known about the dinosaurs on our very own planet if we didn't discover their bones, and we will never see them again) means that we may never meet any other life.
- metalliqaz 8y agoIt's certainly possible if the probability of developing intelligent life is Infinitesimal.
- Razengan 8y agoWe don't know all the forms that "life" or "intelligence" can take. We certainly do not have any proof that it's impossible for life to be different from us, and we're already in the process of creating intelligence that's different from ours. Our understanding of where life can thrive still gets challenged by discoveries on our own planet, or the experiments in our own labs, like the one on metal-based "cells" [0] that I read about recently. [0] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20906-life-like-cells-are-made-of-metal/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20906-life-like-cells...
- zimablue 8y agoYour basic argument is just not solid, sorry. You're pointing out that one variable in the Drake equation is large and admitting that we literally have __no clue__ about several others. No clue means no clue, we don't know the mechanism by which they happened. They could under present knowledge turn out to be precisely as small as space is big, or even smaller. The "space is big argument" is not good but hopefully it leads you down the rabbit hole of more interesting arguments. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
- Razengan 8y ago
- robodale 8y agoIt's "stories" like these I would read as a kid very early 80's, probably in Popular Mechanics magazines or similar. Depicted in these magazine articles and artist renditions: in the future (certainly by the 2020s!), we will have bases on the Moon, maybe even Mars, and rotating space stations... all the while wearing stylish futuristic fashions (yet still looking very much 70's), the women sipping from glasses of champagne and laughing to each other while in the background the men play some yet-to-be-invented handball game.
- bena 8y agoI mean, the biggest failure of prediction is that women seem to laugh at salad rather than champagne. It always seems as if we're just 50 - 100 years from "the future". Lost in Space takes place in 1997 when we were about to colonize space. Or as we know it, 21 years ago. The original Blade Runner takes place next year. When we'll have space colonies and humanoid androids to work them. And according to Star Trek, we've weathered the Eugenics War and have 31 years before World War III and the post-atomic horror. But in just 45 years, Zefram Cochrane will invent the warp drive. Not to mention the countless flying cars we'll have as we go eat all of our meals in pill form.
- brightball 8y agoThe 80s Transformers movie takes place in “It is the year 2005”
- mnw21cam 8y agoThe Flight of the Conchords' song "The Humans are Dead" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1BdQcJ2ZYY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1BdQcJ2ZYY starts with "It is the distant future, the year 2000". It was released in 2008. I mean, yeah it's a piss-take, but there was always this big thing about the year 2000 being the distant future when robots would be ruling the Earth.
- perl4ever 8y ago
- maxxxxx 8y agoAre they planning on sending signals back? Also how much observation can you do with a little spacecraft that moves through a solar system at that speed?
- darkstar999 8y agoRead the article to find out!
- maxxxxx 8y agoI read it but it seemed very light on detail. How would they use the laser to get a signal back?
- antonvs 8y agoSee "How will Breakthrough Starshot probes send their reports back to Earth?" in the article at: https://www.popsci.com/three-questions-for-breakthrough-starshot https://www.popsci.com/three-questions-for-breakthrough-star...
- maxxxxx 8y agoSounds interesting but way out there. I wonder if they will prototype the system with a flyby of an asteroid or similar to see if it even works shorter distances.
- throwaway456321 8y agoThey're dreaming !
- lucb1e 8y agoTLDR for those who are already familiar with the idea and just want to know the details: it'll travel at .2C, taking 20 years (4ly*.2), and there is no launch date. It seems all still theoretical at this stage, though they're pushing some serious funding. To report back they "hope" the spacecraft can use lasers and we will "probably" hear a few when a bunch of them report their measurements back.
- repler 8y agoI don't recall there being any exoplanets within the habitable zone at Alpha Centauri.
- mothsonasloth 8y agoWill the probes be able to detect psychic worms?
- Grue3 8y agoIf it's going to fly at such a large speed, what is the proposed mechanism to stop it? This thing would instantly burn as soon as it reaches any planet's atmosphere. Could Alpha Centauri's gravity field capture this spacecraft somehow? Doesn't seem likely.
- DowsingSpoon 8y agoI don't believe there is an intention to slow down or stop.
- zamalek 8y agoI wonder if the laser could be used to clear space debris.
- wlesieutre 8y agoProbably yes, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_broom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_broom Finding and tracking very small/fast debris is a different matter, but if you can find the debris and keep a laser aimed at it you can alter its orbit.
- HillaryBriss 8y agoThis article has many insights I've never seen before. This is my favorite: "If the dinosaurs had a giant laser, maybe they'd still be here"
- HillaryBriss 8y agoGiven that an approach like this could be implemented even on a lower power basis, wouldn't we use it first for super fast, super frequent investigation of planets and their moons within the solar system? Isn't that the low hanging fruit here?
- SubiculumCode 8y agoIt seems that while traveling that fast it would be hard to collect good data from the system, but I am no physicist.
- ChuckMcM 8y agoI always wonder about programs that require building a 100GW laser that can target any point in the sky above it. While I"m sure there are many uses for such a device, clearly one of them is disabling satellites. Which makes the creation and operation of such a device destabilizing at a minimum and more likely fairly provocative.
- walterbell 8y ago100GW laser governed by Facebook CEO and VC. What could go wrong?
- Roboprog 8y agoOh, on the ground? I thought the article mentioned having the lasers in orbit, presumably to avoid atmospheric blurring. So it’s not just things in orbit that are targets, it’s stuff on the ground, as well. Be the first on your block to have one, I guess.
- ChuckMcM 8y agoGround is where the power supply is. Although an orbital laser with enough solar panels would probably work as well. Same issue though, except now you have a 100GW laser that is able to point to many different places on the ground from where its orbital position. Even if it is short duration, 1mS @ 100GW imparts as much energy as 100MW over 1 second, or 1 MW for a bit longer than a minute and a half.
- travisoneill1 8y agoSeems like overkill for shooting down satellites. IIRC the US and China have already demonstrated this ability so I don't think it would add that much as a weapon.
- ChuckMcM 8y agoDon't under estimate the value of being able to shoot down a satellite with no advance warning. Existing anti-sat weapons are typically launched from a platform that is visible/trackable long before it can actually kill a satellite.
- shmerl 8y agoWhat about using ion thrusters for such purpose?
- acqq 8y agoAlso see: "Is Humanity About To Accidentally Declare Interstellar War On Alien Civilizations?" https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/08/07/is-humanity-about-to-accidentally-declare-interstellar-war-on-alien-civilizations https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/08/07/is-h... "aiming to the level-of-precision needed to pass close to (but not collide with) a target planet is virtually impossible. The “cone of uncertainty” for any trajectory will include the planet we’re aiming for." "A planet getting hit by a ~1 gram spacecraft moving at 60,000 km/s is going to experience the same level of catastrophic effects as a planet getting hit by a ~1 tonne asteroid moving at ~60 km/s, the equivalent of which happens on Earth just once per decade. Each strike would hit their world with the same energy that the Chelyabinsk meteorite struck Earth: the most energetic collision of the decade."
- lolc 8y agoI don't think a meteorite can be compared to such a tiny ball. The ball will disintegrate when it's still 100km up. You get an intense flash. But I don't think shock waves travel much up there.
- S_A_P 8y agoI am curious as to how the radio tech will work for these things. Im skeptical that something super low power will be able to send us back some pictures from that distance? Is our current tech that good?
- clarkmoody 8y agoIt will use lasers to send the data. An interesting proposal to use the sail as an antenna here: http://breakthroughinitiatives.org/forum/13?page=4 http://breakthroughinitiatives.org/forum/13?page=4
- espinchi 8y agoHere's a bunch of startup ideas: http://breakthroughinitiatives.org/challenges/3 http://breakthroughinitiatives.org/challenges/3 I'm mostly kidding. These are hard, hard problems, much better suited to research organizations. Exciting stuff!
- salutonmundo 8y ago"If the dinosaurs had a giant laser, maybe they’d still be here. - S. Pete Worden" aaaand it's going right in the quotes file.
- georgeecollins 8y agoA giant laser might also have saved the Aztec civilization.
- pfdietz 8y agoIf there is intelligent life on the star next door, the Fermi Paradox would bite extremely hard. So, no, we're not going to find intelligent life there.
- ufmace 8y agoWhat I want to know is how they plan on steering these things. How do you get a multi-gigawatt laser on Earth to not only hit a ping-pong ball sized thing in space, but propel it in a particular direction, precisely enough that it will pass through the inner solar system of a star system 4 light-years away? Wouldn't an encounter with a tiny bit of gas or something near our solar system cause it to be like a few billion miles off target?
- 0bfus 8y agoIf they're passively propelled, then it can just become a numbers game. Send a thousand and hope for the best maybe?
- mLuby 8y agoRecommend reading TFA: >Think of it as a large pingpong ball with computers and cameras pointing in different directions. The big advantage? The spherical shape, coupled with a "hollow" laser beam that's stronger toward its outside edge, could be naturally centered on the beam throughout the acceleration. >"Imagine blowing a piece of paper straight up. It's going to fly off the beam unless it's perfectly aligned," says Zac Manchester, a Stanford professor and Starshot engineer who's researched the subject and already launched a 1.4-inch square spacecraft into Earth's orbit.
- istjohn 8y agoBut also from TFA, the lasers will stop after the spacecraft travels about ten times the distance between the Earth and moon. I think the question still stands, is it possible to expect anywhere near the needed precision without some kind of active steering over the four light years (minus ten moons) of space that must be traversed? It certainly must be a limiting factor in the utility of this scheme. I can't imagine using this tech to execute a planned fly-by of an extra-solar moon, for example.
- bumholio 8y ago10 times the distance to the Moon at an average speed of 0.1c takes about two minutes. So you would launch thousands of these crafts in the general direction of the target system and hope that at least one survives the micrometeorite onslaught and passes close enough to the target planet to snatch a few pictures. Or maybe even aero brake in the very thin heliosphere or gas giant upper atmosphere and enter a highly elliptical Centauri-centric orbit. Or accidentally start an interstellar war.
- MichaelMoser123 8y agoi wonder how they deal with the possibility of collision - at this speed and distance you will have a significant chance of bumping into something in interstellar space. Also you will have to slow down the spacecraft somehow, how would they go about it?