12 ms·

Canada Is Preparing Steel Quotas, Tariffs on China and Others

106 points by dhruvarora013 8y ago

madengr 8y ago
Try getting moderate and high value MLCC caps on Digikey. Pretty much zero stock on everything. It’s affecting my electronics production. Why the hell would Trump put tariffs on parts where there aren’t even domestic manufacturers?
- Mountain_Skies 8y ago
  Think that's the point. His stated goal is to bring jobs back to the United States. Domestic production for these items don't exist now but if demand can't be satisfied through imports due trade restrictions, domestic suppliers will arise. Of course things aren't quiet that simple as many things have complex supply chains involved in their production so it would take time for such domestic producers to come online. Plus they must be assured somehow that the next administration isn't going to reverse course, opening the market to imports that will undercut the domestic market. My guess is that Digikey will get stock again soon, just at a higher price. It's unlikely there will be anything completely unavailable as this isn't an embargo, just tariffs.
  - blackguardx 8y ago
    Capacitor shortages are a separate issue entirely. Capacitor manufacturers seem to be making less caps, which drive the prices up.
  - kevin_thibedeau 8y ago
    They will just shift production to somewhere else in south east Asia. Low margin manufacturing will never be in-sourced again.
    - 394549 8y ago
      > They will just shift production to somewhere else in south east Asia. To be honest, that might not be a bad outcome. > Low margin manufacturing will never be in-sourced again. I'm actually kinda surprised by some of the low-margin items that are still "Made in the USA." I just noticed that the cheapy-cheap molded-plastic laundry baskets I bought from Wal-Mart were domestically produced.
stuaxo 8y ago
This all seems like the runup to the great depression :/
- danieltillett 8y ago
  In fairness trade protection was an exacibation, not a cause of the Great Depression [1]. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
  - xymor 8y ago
    So, you're saying the 1930 introduced tarrifs didn't create the 1929 depression? I hope you can provide a source for such a bold statement.
    - danmaz74 8y ago
      1929 was the year of the market crash. The depression lasted 12 years, most of them during the 1930s.
  - dustinmoorenet 8y ago
    Yeah, the main reason was rampant stock speculation. I'm glad we don't have that anymore. /s
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- pmontra 8y ago
  The tariffs introduced in 1930 could have been a big factor in making that depression Great. http://americastradepolicy.com/did-the-smoot-hawley-tariff-cause-the-great-depression/ http://americastradepolicy.com/did-the-smoot-hawley-tariff-c... > The economists argued that the tariff increases would raise the cost of living, limit our exports as other countries retaliated, injure U.S. investors since the high tariffs would make it harder for foreign debtors to repay their loans, and damage our foreign relations. Unfortunately, this is what happened. > From 1929 to 1933 American exports declined from about $5.2 billion to $1.7 billion, and the impact was concentrated on agricultural products such as wheat, cotton and tobacco. As a result, many American farmers defaulted on their loans, which in turn particularly affected small rural banks.
Simulacra 8y ago
Fascinating. I've always wanted something to be done about China's trade abuses, particularly dumping, but also the human rights issues. I really don't know enough about trading tariffs but I am very curious: do these tariffs have any chance of improving China's behavior?
- hrktb 8y ago
  Arm chair economist here as well. Historically trade abuses are resolved throught the WTO. That's what happened when the US had a dispute with Brazil over cotton tarifs protection [0], or countless other trade disputes countries have with each other. Even recently there was a chicken dispute case with China [1]. That's not perfect in any way, and that's crazy slow, but doesn't seems worse than playing chicken run through twitter announcements. If the point was really to do something about China's trading behavior, I think it would be done through the WTO, and in particular it would need more buying from the other main countries. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil–United_States_cotton_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil–United_States_cotton_di... [1]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-wto-chicken/united-states-wins-wto-chicken-ruling-against-china-idUSKBN1F722C https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-wto-chicken/uni...
  - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
    > If the point was really to do something about China's trading behavior, I think it would be done through the WTO China’s devolution to dictatorship makes it abundantly clear their acceptance into the WTO was a mistake.
    - gonvaled 8y ago
      Why? I thought the WTO was a trade organization? It does not need to make value judgement about the internal politics, for those issues we have other international bodies.
      - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
m23khan 8y ago
If anything as a Canadian I rather see Canada openly and aggressive court China, Russia, EU and Mexico+Brazil as trading partners to significantly reduce dependence on US. Canada needs to understand need of the hour is not to engage in moral-schooling with China and not to support ire-invoking causes in China -- our priority is Canada, Canadian economy and Canadians. For too long our courting of USA and India has resulted in both US and India becoming arrogant towards us when it comes to foreign policy and diplomatic protocols. Finally, as a clear signal, Canada should step up border patrol and aggressively stop any intake of folks fleeing to Canada from USA - US needs to understand Canada is not a dumping ground for their unwanted folks.
- microcolonel 8y ago
  > If anything as a Canadian I rather see Canada openly and aggressive court China, Russia, EU and Mexico+Brazil as trading partners to significantly reduce dependence on US. Why? This is worse than working with the U.S. even with the tariffs. Furthermore, Canada is little more than a suburb of the U.S. as far as military projection; whose navy guards the Canadian ships if Canada flips the bird to the U.S? > Canada needs to understand need of the hour is not to engage in moral-schooling with China and not to support ire-invoking causes in China -- our priority is Canada, Canadian economy and Canadians. China is seizing Canadian property from Chinese people for political influence, I don't think this is the time to treat China with no suspicion. > For too long our courting of USA and India has resulted in both US and India becoming arrogant towards us when it comes to foreign policy and diplomatic protocols. > Finally, as a clear signal, Canada should step up border patrol and aggressively stop any intake of folks fleeing to Canada from USA - US needs to understand Canada is not a dumping ground for their unwanted folks. This is pretty limited.
- Azeolus 8y ago
  Less than 10,000 US citizens migrate to Canada annually. Approximately double that number (20,000) Canadians immigrate to the US annually. Seems you're ranting into the wind about nonsense.
  - m23khan 8y ago
hourislate 8y ago
Canada was dumping cheap Chinese steel into the US for ever. Just look at the largest seller of Stainless Steel in NA. It's an outfit that brings Chinese Stainless Steel into Canada and Mexico and then dumps it into the US. Canada was warned about a year ago that they need to stop this dumping but chose to continue to the last possible day they could (May 31, 2018). On June 1st the Trump administration went ahead with sanctions. The Canadians acted to late and worked with the Chinese for too long. When this was brought up to Canada's foreign minister (Chrystia Freeland) and why they didn't act sooner, she had no answer. It could have all been avoided.
- aldoushuxley001 8y ago
  You're getting downvoted but you're right.
- allengeorge 8y ago
  What is the basis for this assertion? By far the largest source of Canadian steel imports is the US (55%). China accounts for only 10% of Canadian steel imports. Even if all the Chinese steel Canada imported (0.8 million metric tons) flowed directly into the US - highly unlikely - this would account for 2% of the steel the US imported (34.6 million metric tons). And this percentage is even smaller considering the overall US steel market. Hell - US production alone is 81.6 million metric tons and increasing. Somehow a max of 0.8 million metric tons destabilized a US steel market of approximately 81.6 mmt or more? All numbers as of 2017 and from the US government: [1] Canadian steel imports: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-Canada.pdf https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-Canada.pd... [2] US steel imports: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
  - hourislate 8y ago
    So why all of a sudden is Canada applying tariffs to Chinese steel if it was never a problem? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/canada-braces-for-diverted-steel-imports.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/canada-braces-for-diverted-s... I'm not an insider but I certainly know enough people in the industry and understand cross-border trade shenanigans.
Consultant32452 8y ago
This is all very complex and I'm having a hard time seeing the big picture. There's trade wars, US foreign policy on North Korea (China plays a significant role), and over the last few years a ramping up of discussions on how to avoid the Thucydides trap. It's worth noting here that China and Russia, and potentially Iran are allies. All these things are connected in complex ways and while it's important to look at an issue like the trade war in isolation, I think it's also important to view it in context. And that big picture context is something I'm having a very hard time pulling together. Can anyone recommend some reading that would illuminate this?

106 points by dhruvarora013 8y ago

Try getting moderate and high value MLCC caps on Digikey. Pretty much zero stock on everything. It’s affecting my electronics production. Why the hell would Trump put tariffs on parts where there aren’t even domestic manufacturers?

Mountain_Skies 8y ago
Think that's the point. His stated goal is to bring jobs back to the United States. Domestic production for these items don't exist now but if demand can't be satisfied through imports due trade restrictions, domestic suppliers will arise. Of course things aren't quiet that simple as many things have complex supply chains involved in their production so it would take time for such domestic producers to come online. Plus they must be assured somehow that the next administration isn't going to reverse course, opening the market to imports that will undercut the domestic market. My guess is that Digikey will get stock again soon, just at a higher price. It's unlikely there will be anything completely unavailable as this isn't an embargo, just tariffs.
- blackguardx 8y ago
  Capacitor shortages are a separate issue entirely. Capacitor manufacturers seem to be making less caps, which drive the prices up.
- kevin_thibedeau 8y ago
  They will just shift production to somewhere else in south east Asia. Low margin manufacturing will never be in-sourced again.
  - 394549 8y ago
    > They will just shift production to somewhere else in south east Asia. To be honest, that might not be a bad outcome. > Low margin manufacturing will never be in-sourced again. I'm actually kinda surprised by some of the low-margin items that are still "Made in the USA." I just noticed that the cheapy-cheap molded-plastic laundry baskets I bought from Wal-Mart were domestically produced.

stuaxo 8y ago

This all seems like the runup to the great depression :/

danieltillett 8y ago
In fairness trade protection was an exacibation, not a cause of the Great Depression [1]. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
- xymor 8y ago
  So, you're saying the 1930 introduced tarrifs didn't create the 1929 depression? I hope you can provide a source for such a bold statement.
  - danmaz74 8y ago
    1929 was the year of the market crash. The depression lasted 12 years, most of them during the 1930s.
- dustinmoorenet 8y ago
  Yeah, the main reason was rampant stock speculation. I'm glad we don't have that anymore. /s
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
pmontra 8y ago
The tariffs introduced in 1930 could have been a big factor in making that depression Great. http://americastradepolicy.com/did-the-smoot-hawley-tariff-cause-the-great-depression/ http://americastradepolicy.com/did-the-smoot-hawley-tariff-c... > The economists argued that the tariff increases would raise the cost of living, limit our exports as other countries retaliated, injure U.S. investors since the high tariffs would make it harder for foreign debtors to repay their loans, and damage our foreign relations. Unfortunately, this is what happened. > From 1929 to 1933 American exports declined from about $5.2 billion to $1.7 billion, and the impact was concentrated on agricultural products such as wheat, cotton and tobacco. As a result, many American farmers defaulted on their loans, which in turn particularly affected small rural banks.

Simulacra 8y ago

Fascinating. I've always wanted something to be done about China's trade abuses, particularly dumping, but also the human rights issues. I really don't know enough about trading tariffs but I am very curious: do these tariffs have any chance of improving China's behavior?

hrktb 8y ago
Arm chair economist here as well. Historically trade abuses are resolved throught the WTO. That's what happened when the US had a dispute with Brazil over cotton tarifs protection [0], or countless other trade disputes countries have with each other. Even recently there was a chicken dispute case with China [1]. That's not perfect in any way, and that's crazy slow, but doesn't seems worse than playing chicken run through twitter announcements. If the point was really to do something about China's trading behavior, I think it would be done through the WTO, and in particular it would need more buying from the other main countries. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil–United_States_cotton_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil–United_States_cotton_di... [1]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-wto-chicken/united-states-wins-wto-chicken-ruling-against-china-idUSKBN1F722C https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-wto-chicken/uni...
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > If the point was really to do something about China's trading behavior, I think it would be done through the WTO China’s devolution to dictatorship makes it abundantly clear their acceptance into the WTO was a mistake.
  - gonvaled 8y ago
    Why? I thought the WTO was a trade organization? It does not need to make value judgement about the internal politics, for those issues we have other international bodies.
    - JumpCrisscross 8y ago

m23khan 8y ago

If anything as a Canadian I rather see Canada openly and aggressive court China, Russia, EU and Mexico+Brazil as trading partners to significantly reduce dependence on US. Canada needs to understand need of the hour is not to engage in moral-schooling with China and not to support ire-invoking causes in China -- our priority is Canada, Canadian economy and Canadians. For too long our courting of USA and India has resulted in both US and India becoming arrogant towards us when it comes to foreign policy and diplomatic protocols. Finally, as a clear signal, Canada should step up border patrol and aggressively stop any intake of folks fleeing to Canada from USA - US needs to understand Canada is not a dumping ground for their unwanted folks.

microcolonel 8y ago
> If anything as a Canadian I rather see Canada openly and aggressive court China, Russia, EU and Mexico+Brazil as trading partners to significantly reduce dependence on US. Why? This is worse than working with the U.S. even with the tariffs. Furthermore, Canada is little more than a suburb of the U.S. as far as military projection; whose navy guards the Canadian ships if Canada flips the bird to the U.S? > Canada needs to understand need of the hour is not to engage in moral-schooling with China and not to support ire-invoking causes in China -- our priority is Canada, Canadian economy and Canadians. China is seizing Canadian property from Chinese people for political influence, I don't think this is the time to treat China with no suspicion. > For too long our courting of USA and India has resulted in both US and India becoming arrogant towards us when it comes to foreign policy and diplomatic protocols. > Finally, as a clear signal, Canada should step up border patrol and aggressively stop any intake of folks fleeing to Canada from USA - US needs to understand Canada is not a dumping ground for their unwanted folks. This is pretty limited.
Azeolus 8y ago
Less than 10,000 US citizens migrate to Canada annually. Approximately double that number (20,000) Canadians immigrate to the US annually. Seems you're ranting into the wind about nonsense.
- m23khan 8y ago

hourislate 8y ago

Canada was dumping cheap Chinese steel into the US for ever. Just look at the largest seller of Stainless Steel in NA. It's an outfit that brings Chinese Stainless Steel into Canada and Mexico and then dumps it into the US. Canada was warned about a year ago that they need to stop this dumping but chose to continue to the last possible day they could (May 31, 2018). On June 1st the Trump administration went ahead with sanctions. The Canadians acted to late and worked with the Chinese for too long. When this was brought up to Canada's foreign minister (Chrystia Freeland) and why they didn't act sooner, she had no answer. It could have all been avoided.

aldoushuxley001 8y ago
You're getting downvoted but you're right.
allengeorge 8y ago
What is the basis for this assertion? By far the largest source of Canadian steel imports is the US (55%). China accounts for only 10% of Canadian steel imports. Even if all the Chinese steel Canada imported (0.8 million metric tons) flowed directly into the US - highly unlikely - this would account for 2% of the steel the US imported (34.6 million metric tons). And this percentage is even smaller considering the overall US steel market. Hell - US production alone is 81.6 million metric tons and increasing. Somehow a max of 0.8 million metric tons destabilized a US steel market of approximately 81.6 mmt or more? All numbers as of 2017 and from the US government: [1] Canadian steel imports: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-Canada.pdf https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-Canada.pd... [2] US steel imports: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/imports-us.pdf
- hourislate 8y ago
  So why all of a sudden is Canada applying tariffs to Chinese steel if it was never a problem? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/canada-braces-for-diverted-steel-imports.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/canada-braces-for-diverted-s... I'm not an insider but I certainly know enough people in the industry and understand cross-border trade shenanigans.

Consultant32452 8y ago

This is all very complex and I'm having a hard time seeing the big picture. There's trade wars, US foreign policy on North Korea (China plays a significant role), and over the last few years a ramping up of discussions on how to avoid the Thucydides trap. It's worth noting here that China and Russia, and potentially Iran are allies. All these things are connected in complex ways and while it's important to look at an issue like the trade war in isolation, I think it's also important to view it in context. And that big picture context is something I'm having a very hard time pulling together. Can anyone recommend some reading that would illuminate this?