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Tim Draper defends Theranos and its disgraced founder and CEO, Elizabeth Holmes
- colmvp 8y ago> “Why is [Theranos] worthless? It’s worthless because this writer was like a badger going after her, like a hyena going after her, and then it became a bigger and bigger thing,” he said. “She got bullied into submission,” Draper explained, adding that if it weren’t for Carreyrou and other opponents, Theranos “could have been one of these big, huge winners.” And we would've gotten away with it too, if it weren't for that meddling journalist!!! shakes fist in the air
- arcticfox 8y agoTim clearly has some screws loose. I just learned today that he has a fabulously wealthy father; that explains a lot.
- adventured 8y agoHis father was one of the earliest of the modern venture capitalists. And among the first in California, circa 1959 (just two years after the founding of Fairchild Semi). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Henry_Draper_III https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Henry_Draper_III
- cowsandmilk 8y ago> And among the first in California, circa 1959 His grandfather founded the venture capital firm in 1959. His father was an associate that joined at the time of the founding.
- sarreph 8y agoWhile it's clear that the vast majority of us do not agree with Draper's comments here, let's not attempt to discredit someone based on their (wealthy or otherwise) financial background.
- twic 8y agoI took this to mean something like "that explains how he has been able to become and continue to be a high-profile venture capitalist despite having a screw loose", rather than "that explains why he has a screw loose".
- twic 8y agoSo what he's saying is that the two things he doesn't know anything about are business and badgers.
- rossdavidh 8y agoNot quite, "...two OF the things..."
- blackbagboys 8y agoIt's worth keeping in mind that, by and large, this is how the oligarch class thinks. Their top priorities are protecting and justifying their wealth and power. A journalist who exposes a massive fraud and probably saved lives isn't someone performing a public service - he's an enemy. There is no mea culpa. The relationship between the oligarch's own interests and the public interest is purely predatory and adversarial. These priorities are relatively easy to see when it comes to techno-weirdos like Tim Draper and Peter Thiel or cartoonish megalomaniacs like Bezos, but they govern the behavior of even otherwise staid and conventional oligarchs (see, for instance, Eric Schmidt strong-arming the New America Foundation to fire everyone involved in antitrust policy research).
- zasz 8y agoI like the way you think. Are there any books you recommend on understanding how oligarchs think? What do you think is going through the mind of oligarchs with more geopolitical concerns, like Putin?
- blackbagboys 8y agoThis is a useful academic introduction: https://www.amazon.com/Oligarchy-Jeffrey-Winters/dp/0521182980/ https://www.amazon.com/Oligarchy-Jeffrey-Winters/dp/05211829...
- HarryHirsch 8y agoFor a literary treatment once can read Ernst Jünger - the Mauretanier-Orden pops up every now and then in the course of his writings.
- rdlecler1 8y agoWow—this guy really buys into the hype machine to fix all problems. There was a reason most top VCs turned this down—for most of the use cases proposed there is intrinsically too much natural heterogeneity in blood that you need to use a larger blood draw. Journalists were not going to change that fact that this machine was never going to work.
- dboreham 8y agoThe Scooby Doo defense.
- joering2 8y agoRemind me of my distant friend. He was constantly drink driving and eventually got caught and lost his drivers license. He couldnt get to work on time with buses constantly late, so they fired him. 5 years later he still blames the cop for being fired.
- FooHentai 8y agoI'm also irritated by the condescending, misogynistic undercurrent of claim. It seems doubtful the same assertion would have been made if Theranos had been founded/chaired by a man. This belief that women are without agency is stubbornly persistent and omnipresent.
- aj7 8y agoYes this is true, but you have to admit her story was helped on the up-ramp.
- kemiller2002 8y agoFrom what I understand about biology (which is little), there was no real way this was ever going to work. Am I missing something?
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- amacbride 8y agoWhat they promised is theoretically possible, but they ran afoul of the huge practical problems that made people with actual biology and engineering backgrounds (like myself) very, very skeptical.
- amacbride 8y ago(Oh, and massive financial shenanigans.)
- dnautics 8y agoit's not theoretically possible, due to the statistics of small numbers. You can resolve the nanotainer problem by collecting many of them, but by the time you can measure a statistical difference, you might as well have collected a large volume of blood in the first place.
- petra 8y agoI agree that analyzing small volumes of blood is theoretically possible , but afaik it's yet unclear that you can get good samples from blood drawn from fingers, because it's mixed with interstitial fluid.
- dekhn 8y agoThere is no reason the underlying idea of nanotainers being used for blood analysis is fundamentally impossible but it is a hard problem because the volume of blood is so small there can easily be statistical fluctuations that affect the classifier. That said, it's strictly correct that, if engineered properly, it could have provided additional actionable medical data.
- josephjrobison 8y ago> “Amid his mind-boggling defense, the investor did admit that Theranos was now in the “loser column” of his investments list, a list that also includes Tesla and Bitcoin.“ Interestingly, at Collision Conf this year, while on stage being interviewed, he was pumping up Bitcoin like it was going to the moon. Strange investor I guess.
- TelAvivHacker 8y agoCan’t blame him for trying. It puts a seed of an alternate story into our minds. How do other streams of “alternative facts” get started? And many people want to believe that Big Medicine is keeping breakthroughs from us.
- dhimes 8y agoCan’t blame him for trying. I can. I can definitely blame people for being amoral unless they have some brain damage/dysfunction whereby they don't know the difference.
- rossdavidh 8y agoYou were probably just using a common phrase in some non-literal way, but I absolutely _can_ blame someone for lying in an attempt to make money, all the more so when it is around medical and legal issues.
- allisterb 8y agoCan't people stop beating this dead horse already. She screwed up, her company is dead, just let her be.
- perl4ever 8y agoI think "screwing up" has an incorrect connotation that she didn't commit fraud deliberately. People who have never been anywhere near a coal mine express anger at Don Blankenship for contributing to the deaths of dozens of people via deceiving inspectors. So it doesn't seem strange that people would continue to be angry at Holmes, when everybody depends on medical services such as blood tests that they can trust. Ordinary people almost always die in circumstances that only amount to statistics and not a newsworthy outrage, but surely it is an injustice if casualties are deemed irrelevant in a situation like this.
- hycaria 8y agoI thought they didn't release products?
- icebraining 8y agoThey were making blood tests on some Walgreen stores. I'm not exactly sure if those were using their (flawed) process or faking it by using existing processes. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/03/20/595204989/reporters-notebook-theranos-and-the-mysterious-walgreens-fire-alarm https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/03/20/5952049...
- sseth 8y agoThere labs were in the market for years, using a "mix" of their own tests and also standard tests from other manufacturers. What they could not come out with was any FDA approved test of their own except for one (for herpes). The basic issue is that drawing a pin prick of blood from the fingers results in a lot of "interstitial" fluid. The combination of a very small sample and poor quality made it hard to create reliable tests. In reality Theranos labs were mostly taking vials of blood from veins for standard tests, instead of the pin pricks they were touting. Once this became public the bottom fell out. Edit: The worst part of what they did was that they would take smaller samples than normal and then run them diluted on standard machines . This is because the standard machines needed a larger volume. This gave patients less reliable results than they would have had a larger sample been taken in the first place. And i think this is really unforgivable, because it has real life consequences for people.
- dhimes 8y agoThere is so much I'll never understand about business, business people, and people who remain loyal to them. I wonder if I s/business/<different category>/g will I see the same thing?
- fred_is_fred 8y agoI'm guessing this is basic psychology. It's easier to blame a reporter for something you invested in so heavily than to admit on national TV that you screwed up. None of these big shot investors want to admit that they got defrauded, it makes them look foolish.
- jgalt212 8y agoKind of a flyer here, but perhaps Draper has been advised to stake out this position as still being a "true believer" because it minimizes his litigation exposure in the case he sold some of shares before the SEC case/investigation became public knowledge.
- nova22033 8y agoJohn Carreyrou's book is coming out end of May. Already pre-ordered. Can't wait.
- kapauldo 8y agoI'm still not convinced fraud accured at theranos. I think it might be the sec and wsj not understanding how r&d works plus a little bit of bubble think inside the company. I think they went to work every day and worked on blood testing tech. I don't think they went to work every day and plotted a ponzi scheme.
- pg_bot 8y agoListen to the full interview here: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/10/early-theranos-investor-tim-draper-defends-elizabeth-holmes-and-her-vision.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/10/early-theranos-investor-tim-... As the founder of a healthcare company, Tim's statement here is the one that I found the most dangerous "If all she had to do was say this was a beta or whatever and all of us would be using it, would be loving it." When it comes to people's health you must have concrete evidence that your product works and is robust. Blood testing is not a field where people accept mistakes. Anyone working in this field is used to scrutiny, it is your burden to prove that what you are working on is safe and useful. There are a lot of quacks, hucksters, and fakes out there proceed with caution.
- johndevor 8y ago> Blood testing is not a field where people accept mistakes. I don't think this is true. There are blood tests that don't always work. Lyme disease is one that is not accurately detected.
- hycaria 8y agoMost blood tests are imperfect by nature (specificity and sensitivity are almost never equal to one). No need to point out a specific and very questionable example.
- pg_bot 8y agoTo clarify, a mistake is an error which causes the tests to be invalidated. Theranos had to throw out all Edison test results for 2014 and 2015. Clinical decisions were made as a result of these tests and it is not unreasonable to believe that patients may have been harmed as a result of faulty information. This would be the equivalent of a plane crash for an airliner. False positives and false negatives will occur with all testing and there are protocols in place to detect false readings. While most tests are accurate, an inaccurate result is not considered a mistake since the tests themselves are not perfect. (Given that you followed proper procedure)
- rdiddly 8y agoRidiculous - you're not allowed to release a "beta" in medicine. (I don't use "healthcare" because it doesn't carry any connotation of standards or responsibility.) I guess this guy is from a universe where everything is software, and a dead human being can be rebooted?
- a-dub 8y agoThe Drapers are weird. I guess the family has been rich for a long time and they've made a lot of investments, but I don't really see a clear track record of being particularly good at picking winners. I was at a Bitcoin trade show a few years ago and his son was there pumping his Bitcoin specific venture fund. Quite honestly, he struck me as an enormous asshole. He was on a few panels with people who actually knew how that stuff works and he would just talk right over them again and again in an almost derogatory capacity. It was like zany high school shit. Also these are the crazy people that want to split California up, well you know, just 'cause.
- perl4ever 8y agoAccording to the BBC, Russia has been funding and promoting the California secessionists, among other similar movements. See: http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-41853131 http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-41853131 Edit: This is a direct explanation of why "just 'cause" is misleading or incomplete, based on public information from mainstream media.
- zasz 8y agoDunno why you're getting downvoted. It's true, and it only adds to the Drapers being enormous assholes; it doesn't contradict that. The leader of the #calexit campaign was an American who was living in Russia. Plus Russia's been funding far-right parties in Europe.
- icebraining 8y agoDunno why you're getting downvoted Because splitting up into multiple states is not the same as seceding.
- perl4ever 8y agoThis is true. On the other hand, just because it is well publicized the Russians are promoting one movement to disrupt California is not a definitive argument that they aren't involved in another. The pattern has been to promote multiple sides of any possible conflict. Draper was reportedly going to get some assistance[1] from Nigel Farage, of Brexit fame, and Farage has been denying[2] Russian connections recently. [1] http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article141291273.html http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert... [2] http://www.newsweek.com/trump-russia-jewish-farage-brexit-698486 http://www.newsweek.com/trump-russia-jewish-farage-brexit-69...
- Molaxx 8y agoWhy is this an AMP link and not a direct link?
- luckydata 8y agoMan, every time I think I ran out of reasons to think poorly of Tim Draper he opens his mouth and gives me one more.
- onetimemanytime 8y ago>>“Why is [Theranos] worthless? It’s worthless because this writer was like a badger going after her, like a hyena going after her, and then it became a bigger and bigger thing,” He has a point: if it weren't for the press discovering her fraud, Theranos would still be going and still be valued billions. WSJ should have stood back. Yeah, maybe thousands would have died due to bad blood tests but hey, it's a great idea that decades from now might work. And Tim would have made even more money. /sarcasm, if it's not obvious
- marcoperaza 8y agoJust because someone has a lot of money or a fancy title doesn’t mean they’re smarter or more capable than anyone else. Time and chance happen to them all.
- erik_landerholm 8y agoRemember this gem: https://www.quora.com/What-is-your-review-of-Draper-University https://www.quora.com/What-is-your-review-of-Draper-Universi... I know people that did it, total joke/scam.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- al2o3cr 8y ago"And I woulda gotten away with it, if it wasn't for you meddling kids!"
- apo 8y agoAmid his mind-boggling defense, the investor did admit that Theranos was now in the “loser column” of his investments list, a list that also includes Tesla and Bitcoin. The Silk Road assets are likely up 10x or more: https://www.coindesk.com/tim-draper-revealed-silk-road-bitcoin-auction-winner/ https://www.coindesk.com/tim-draper-revealed-silk-road-bitco... If Draper has lost on Bitcoin, it would mean he's done an abysmal job of investing in cryptocurrency since the government auction.
- Aditya_Garg 8y agoSince Tesla hasn't dipped or crashed recently, Im assuming that the "list" refers to his investment list, not the loser column. It's just a poorly written sentence.
- NelsonMinar 8y agoTheranos' fraud endangered peoples' health. It's shameful that someone like Draper would defend that.
- michaelcampbell 8y agoHe's only defending his money. That it was Theranos is just a minor side effect to him.
- sk5t 8y agoEven doomsday cults find ways to rationalize their mistakes when the apocalypse misses its schedule--why should an investor born into his money be any different?
- marze 8y agoSo I haven’t really followed this, but were tests performed that directly compared Theranos blood testing vs existing blood testing? What were the results?
- MS-DDOS 8y agoThe Theranos folks discussed some results using the mini-lab vs Siemens equipment during a presentation to the AACC: [1] My understanding is that their ability to perform some tests, and to do it accurately was real, such as their FDA approved herpes test. However the number of tests they could perform on a single sample (primarily due to volume?) was drastically lower than they claimed. They were also found to be diluting samples, and had poor lab practices in a number of instances: [2] [3] [4] When dealing with people's health there is no room for inaccuracy as other's lives and well-fare potentially hang in the balance. [1]: https://youtu.be/n6JRG733ReQ https://youtu.be/n6JRG733ReQ [2]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/28/study-raises-questions-about-accuracy-of-theranos-blood-testing-services/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/28/study... [3]: http://www.businessinsider.com/theranos-study-compares-blood-tests-to-quest-and-labcorp http://www.businessinsider.com/theranos-study-compares-blood... [4]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-devices-often-failed-accuracy-requirements-1459465578 https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-devices-often-failed-a...
- aerovistae 8y ago> "Theranos is now in the loser column of his investments, a list which includes Tesla" What? WHY IS THAT SLIPPED IN THERE? Tesla hasn't crashed nor dropped substantially in value. I am just so confused by this statement.
- Zhenya 8y agoPossibly, the writer meant that Tesla is one of his investments.
- md2be 8y agoTim Draper and the VCs of his generation were born on the technological equivalent of 3rd base.
- guiomie 8y agoAm I not the only one who feels like Tim Draper is like the Trump of the VC world?
- pkaye 8y ago"And I would have gotten away with it if not for you meddling kids."
- bertjk 8y agoTim Draper probably understands, privately, that Theranos is an unrecoverable loss. Privately, he has probably learned a lesson about doing better due diligence going forward. Publicly, he is doing what he thinks will benefit him the most: he is signalling to all prospective future investments, that, "If you take my money, I will stand by you through thick and thin." Some future founders might be turned off by this, but some will probably see it as invaluable.
- anitil 8y agoWow I like the way you think! Hit me in a blind spot I never knew I had.
- mlevental 8y agothat people have public and private opinions and they know when and where to express both?
- anitil 8y agoYou've stumped me here, I've been wondering what I meant for a day now. I think its more a combination of the fact that he was simultaneously saying things to both parties, and the fact that he was willing to look foolish in the process. I'm not expressing it well.
- sbg123 8y agoBanging her, or trying?
- jl2718 8y ago“Loser” doesn’t mean “lost money”. His shares were liquid and increased ~1000x in value. If he hadn’t sold already, he would have held a board seat at the end. Tim Draper understands the hype machine better than anybody else. He knows how it works, and when it will stop working.
- matchagaucho 8y agoI still believe in the Theranos vision of walking into a CVS Pharmacy (or 7Eleven) and letting a machine instantly tell me my iron is low and recommending certain supplements. The approach to achieving this vision, unfortunately, used the Silicon Valley "fake it till you make it" playbook that clearly crossed both ethical and moral lines.