8 ms·

Didn't the US auto industry make this same mistake before? Gas was ~$1/gallon in the 90s, so they neglected everything to focus on the (truck-based) SUVs that

Didn't the US auto industry make this same mistake before? Gas was ~$1/gallon in the 90s, so they neglected everything to focus on the (truck-based) SUVs that were then popular and profitable. Then gas prices went up and they were totally unprepared.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
vvanders 8y ago
Yup. Although they're rolling out a half-ton diesel F150 which will help a bit. Still I'd wager that most people who buy one rarely put it to use. The number of commuters in the city I see with F150s/1500s/etc is pretty staggering.
jjeaff 8y ago
Since that time, the gas mileage on an f-150 has gone from around 15-16mpg up to as high as 22 mpg. So they have that going for them.
- flubert 8y ago
  Only tangentially related, but at the ARPA-E Summit this year, there was a company demonstrating an opposed cylinder, 2-stroke, compression ignition engine that they had placed in an F-150 as a test bed. They were claiming something like 37 MPG. https://www.energy.gov/articles/transformative-tech-2018-arpa-e-energy-innovation-summit https://www.energy.gov/articles/transformative-tech-2018-arp...
  - ericd 8y ago
    Was it less polluting than most other 2 stroke engines? Because they're generally horrible polluters compared to 4 stroke engines.
    - flubert 8y ago
      That is the claim anyway. http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171308_API_2017.pdf http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171... http://achatespower.com/ http://achatespower.com/
  - walshemj 8y ago
    "compression ignition" presumably different to a Diesel?
    - flubert 8y ago
      Yes, a gasoline engine. "ABSTRACT: Achates Power has spent the past 12 years modernizing this historically efficient engine architecture to deliver a step-wise improvement in brake thermal efficiency (BTE) over the most advanced conventional four-stroke engines. In addition, with the elimination of parts such as the cylinder head and valve train, it is also less complex and less costly to produce - making it even more appealing to manufacturers. This paper highlights the work done, to date, on the Opposed-Piston Gasoline Compressions Ignition engine and discusses the advantages of the OP engine as an ideal platform for incorporating gasoline compression ignition (GCI) technology, the study of which recently was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy." http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171308_API_2017.pdf http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171...
- almost_usual 8y ago
  Unless you bought a first gen F-150 Raptor.
  - mi100hael 8y ago
    But then you'd have a Raptor so you'd have that going for you.
look_lookatme 8y ago
A 2018 F-150 with EcoBoost will essentially get the same MPG as a 2018 Ford Taurus. I suspect the Focus Active will be their high efficiency vehicle and they'll continue to increase the MPG on SUVs and certain trucks. I'm in the market for an SUV or crew cab truck for weekend road trips (I walk to work) and have been impressed with the 2015+ F-150s. If I actually did commute every day I could just buy a 10 year old Honda or Toyota and have the best of both worlds.
- ebbv 8y ago
  That’s not so much saying the F150 is efficient as it is saying the 2018 Taurus is sadly inefficient. The F150 is a huge and heavy vehicle. While the current model is more efficient than other recent models it is not an efficient car. Not remotely.
- kasey_junk 8y ago
  But what about the focus and fiesta? It's true that the Taurus is a ridiculous fuel burner but to get the same fuel inefficiency out of the focus you have to move to the rs super hot hatch.
  - mcguire 8y ago
    This move would take Ford out of the introductory/small vehicle market. Bizarre.
- SwellJoe 8y ago
  And, that EcoBoost will haul as much as an F250 from a few years ago, which is pretty incredible. It's my next truck, if I keep hauling an RV around (currently in an old F250, but it needs enough work now to where I'm shopping for something else rather than repairing it).
- Johnny555 8y ago
  But how does that mileage compare to a Taurus with Ecoboost (I don't even know what that is -- a fuel efficient engine or a hybrid drivetrain?) -- surely any technology that improves gas mileage in a 5000lb, 80" wide x 78" high truck would do even more to improve mileage in a 4000 lb 76" wide x 60" high sedan? Comparing an efficient truck to an inefficient car seems like an unfair comparison unless your goal is to justify buying the truck.
slededit 8y ago
They'll still be selling their cars in Europe. The latest gen Focus and Fiestas all came from their European divisions, if problems occur they could theoretically reintroduce them quickly - although they would have lost all their brand momentum in the small car market.
- pfranz 8y ago
  From what I've heard the safety standards are so different and often conflict that it would be difficult for the exact same car to sell in both markets. Bumpers are mandated to be higher in the US because the average car is much bigger. I remember hearing a few others due to Americans being fatter on average and Americans tending to drive longer distances (maybe it was EU focusing more on pedestrian collisions where as the US focused more on car-to-car?)
  - slededit 8y ago
    There are differences but they currently share the same platform right now so clearly they are not insurmountable. It's possible over time the smaller platforms will evolve and lose their compatibility. But it's not a guarantee.
- opencl 8y ago
  I think the fact that the Focus and Fiestas sold from 2011-2016 had defective transmissions (complete with class action settlement) already destroyed their brand momentum in the small car market.
  - solarkraft 8y ago
    what destroys the brand momentum for me is that the cars look dated (even in the updated versions) and the company seems technologically behind (no real electric car).
    - opencl 8y ago
      The quality is really bad. Maybe they've improved in the past few years but one of my friends has a 5 year old Focus that he bought new and is total garbage. The doors don't lock half the time, the transmission craps out once every 6 months, sometimes the engine won't start without wiggling the battery cables, the plastic trim around the windows keeps falling off.
mschaef 8y ago
SUV's are a lot different now than they were then... many of them are basically station wagons stretched up a bit, and the truck-style body-on-frame designs much less common. (For many good reasons.)
unit91 8y ago
The fuel economy situation today is vastly different though. Sticking with the Ford line, In 2000: Taurus sedan: 20/28 Taurus wagon: 19/27 F-150: 16/21 In 2018: Escape SE: 23/30 Edge SE: 21/29 F-150: 20/26 There are (not all, for sure) crossovers and pickups today doing, fuel-wise, what sedans did when gas was $1 a gallon. Note: I don't work for Ford, never have, no plans to. I don't own one, never have, but I do have plans to.
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  > There are (not all, for sure) crossovers and pickups today doing, fuel-wise, what sedans did when gas was $1 a gallon. Gas prices crossed $1 around 1989-1990 and never crossed back, so your description doesn't match your vehicle comparison.
  - war1025 8y ago
    I know for a fact that gas was $0.98/gallon in the late 90s, at least in my hometown. We went on a trip to Montana and I remember wondering how people afforded to drive with gas at the $1.28/gallon or whatever it was there.
    - StudentStuff 8y ago
      Perhaps you were using 82 octane gas? When you get into parts of the Southwest, gas stations down there offer some really low octane gas. I personally always go for premium (92 octane) at a large chain like Costco when going cross country if the local gas stations are slinging anything below 87 octane gas (which is the lowest commonly offered on the West Coast), as it leads me to think the gas offered at that station/in that city is all of lower caliber. Obvs not selling lots of high or normal octane gas at least!
      - war1025 8y ago
        87 / 89 were the two options (Iowa).
SwellJoe 8y ago
The US car industry has made that mistake multiple times. But, even when gas prices were climbing, Ford made most of their profits on trucks. They kinda own the US truck market, making about a third of all trucks sold (as I recall, anyway), and more than any other make, by far. I don't know what it is in the international market, but I think Ford trucks are strong in a lot of other markets, too. I don't know that you're wrong, but I am holding some F lately (mostly because it went on sale on disappointing earnings last quarter), so I kinda think that in the short term it's a good move. The writing has been on the wall for a while about this move, though it's more dramatic than I expected. I thought they'd drop to a lineup of four cars, instead of just two. They have begun focusing on hybrid and electric drive trains for their trucks, and they already have probably the best economy option in pickups with the EcoBoost 6 cylinder that tows like a big V8 (an F150 with EcoBoost and tow package has a tow capacity similar to my older diesel F250), and gets car-like MPG. So, it's not that they're ignoring efficiency, it's just that they're acknowledging that American consumers like big-ass vehicles for their big asses to ride around in (I make fun of American consumer culture and its dumb choices, but I have an F250 for towing my house, so I'm included in that demographic). So...it could play out like the 70s and early 80s did, but I'm not so sure it will. I think we're going to see car makers take a beating on other fronts, but I dunno exactly how it'll play out. Fewer young people are buying cars and more are opting for transit and Lyft/Uber. More young people are moving to cities where that's a feasible lifestyle choice. So, the pool of people buying cars is looking like it's gonna shrink. Cars are lasting longer, too, and quality has gotten pretty good across the board. So, cars made today might make it through to the end of car ownership as we know it. Again, I don't know how it'll change exactly, but it's looking like fleets of self-driving cars owned by Lyft/Uber/Tesla/GM/etc. are gonna replace a lot of current car ownership within the next decade. One other point about trucks: People outside of cities buy trucks at a much higher rate. Vehicle ownership in rural areas is still very, very, high, by necessity, due to no mass transit and inconvenience and expense of ride sharing services when the trips are very long and far out. So, Ford may just be acknowledging that city driving by individuals is on the way out, while we have a few more years with a solid rural truck market.
- walshemj 8y ago
  Presumably Ford could repurpose their European models quickly.
pg_bot 8y ago
Ford caters more to the business market who are buying these vehicles due to their usage in heavy duty hauling. The fact that they are focusing on trucks/SUVs doesn't have to exclude moving to electric vehicles in the future. It's the same as any company focusing on enterprise customers rather than consumers.
duxup 8y ago
They still have the Focus and as I understand it the margins on the other vehicles are just crazy high that hedging your bets with other models about possible fuel prices .... would cost a lot.
- Fomite 8y ago
  They're billing the "Focus Active" as a crossover, not the Focus-style hot hatch, aren't they?
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
ebbv 8y ago
Yep. And not having many affordable models as well. When the economy inevitably “corrects” they will be saying “Oh crap who could have seen this coming!” Again.
briandear 8y ago
When gas prices are high, people still want and need trucks. It’s the large passenger SUVs that take the biggest hit on gas prices.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

vvanders 8y ago

Yup. Although they're rolling out a half-ton diesel F150 which will help a bit. Still I'd wager that most people who buy one rarely put it to use. The number of commuters in the city I see with F150s/1500s/etc is pretty staggering.

jjeaff 8y ago

Since that time, the gas mileage on an f-150 has gone from around 15-16mpg up to as high as 22 mpg. So they have that going for them.

flubert 8y ago
Only tangentially related, but at the ARPA-E Summit this year, there was a company demonstrating an opposed cylinder, 2-stroke, compression ignition engine that they had placed in an F-150 as a test bed. They were claiming something like 37 MPG. https://www.energy.gov/articles/transformative-tech-2018-arpa-e-energy-innovation-summit https://www.energy.gov/articles/transformative-tech-2018-arp...
- ericd 8y ago
  Was it less polluting than most other 2 stroke engines? Because they're generally horrible polluters compared to 4 stroke engines.
  - flubert 8y ago
    That is the claim anyway. http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171308_API_2017.pdf http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171... http://achatespower.com/ http://achatespower.com/
- walshemj 8y ago
  "compression ignition" presumably different to a Diesel?
  - flubert 8y ago
    Yes, a gasoline engine. "ABSTRACT: Achates Power has spent the past 12 years modernizing this historically efficient engine architecture to deliver a step-wise improvement in brake thermal efficiency (BTE) over the most advanced conventional four-stroke engines. In addition, with the elimination of parts such as the cylinder head and valve train, it is also less complex and less costly to produce - making it even more appealing to manufacturers. This paper highlights the work done, to date, on the Opposed-Piston Gasoline Compressions Ignition engine and discusses the advantages of the OP engine as an ideal platform for incorporating gasoline compression ignition (GCI) technology, the study of which recently was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy." http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171308_API_2017.pdf http://achatespower.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JSAE_s171...
almost_usual 8y ago
Unless you bought a first gen F-150 Raptor.
- mi100hael 8y ago
  But then you'd have a Raptor so you'd have that going for you.

look_lookatme 8y ago

A 2018 F-150 with EcoBoost will essentially get the same MPG as a 2018 Ford Taurus. I suspect the Focus Active will be their high efficiency vehicle and they'll continue to increase the MPG on SUVs and certain trucks. I'm in the market for an SUV or crew cab truck for weekend road trips (I walk to work) and have been impressed with the 2015+ F-150s. If I actually did commute every day I could just buy a 10 year old Honda or Toyota and have the best of both worlds.

ebbv 8y ago
That’s not so much saying the F150 is efficient as it is saying the 2018 Taurus is sadly inefficient. The F150 is a huge and heavy vehicle. While the current model is more efficient than other recent models it is not an efficient car. Not remotely.
kasey_junk 8y ago
But what about the focus and fiesta? It's true that the Taurus is a ridiculous fuel burner but to get the same fuel inefficiency out of the focus you have to move to the rs super hot hatch.
- mcguire 8y ago
  This move would take Ford out of the introductory/small vehicle market. Bizarre.
SwellJoe 8y ago
And, that EcoBoost will haul as much as an F250 from a few years ago, which is pretty incredible. It's my next truck, if I keep hauling an RV around (currently in an old F250, but it needs enough work now to where I'm shopping for something else rather than repairing it).
Johnny555 8y ago
But how does that mileage compare to a Taurus with Ecoboost (I don't even know what that is -- a fuel efficient engine or a hybrid drivetrain?) -- surely any technology that improves gas mileage in a 5000lb, 80" wide x 78" high truck would do even more to improve mileage in a 4000 lb 76" wide x 60" high sedan? Comparing an efficient truck to an inefficient car seems like an unfair comparison unless your goal is to justify buying the truck.

slededit 8y ago

They'll still be selling their cars in Europe. The latest gen Focus and Fiestas all came from their European divisions, if problems occur they could theoretically reintroduce them quickly - although they would have lost all their brand momentum in the small car market.

pfranz 8y ago
From what I've heard the safety standards are so different and often conflict that it would be difficult for the exact same car to sell in both markets. Bumpers are mandated to be higher in the US because the average car is much bigger. I remember hearing a few others due to Americans being fatter on average and Americans tending to drive longer distances (maybe it was EU focusing more on pedestrian collisions where as the US focused more on car-to-car?)
- slededit 8y ago
  There are differences but they currently share the same platform right now so clearly they are not insurmountable. It's possible over time the smaller platforms will evolve and lose their compatibility. But it's not a guarantee.
opencl 8y ago
I think the fact that the Focus and Fiestas sold from 2011-2016 had defective transmissions (complete with class action settlement) already destroyed their brand momentum in the small car market.
- solarkraft 8y ago
  what destroys the brand momentum for me is that the cars look dated (even in the updated versions) and the company seems technologically behind (no real electric car).
  - opencl 8y ago
    The quality is really bad. Maybe they've improved in the past few years but one of my friends has a 5 year old Focus that he bought new and is total garbage. The doors don't lock half the time, the transmission craps out once every 6 months, sometimes the engine won't start without wiggling the battery cables, the plastic trim around the windows keeps falling off.

mschaef 8y ago

SUV's are a lot different now than they were then... many of them are basically station wagons stretched up a bit, and the truck-style body-on-frame designs much less common. (For many good reasons.)

unit91 8y ago

The fuel economy situation today is vastly different though. Sticking with the Ford line, In 2000: Taurus sedan: 20/28 Taurus wagon: 19/27 F-150: 16/21 In 2018: Escape SE: 23/30 Edge SE: 21/29 F-150: 20/26 There are (not all, for sure) crossovers and pickups today doing, fuel-wise, what sedans did when gas was $1 a gallon. Note: I don't work for Ford, never have, no plans to. I don't own one, never have, but I do have plans to.

dragonwriter 8y ago
> There are (not all, for sure) crossovers and pickups today doing, fuel-wise, what sedans did when gas was $1 a gallon. Gas prices crossed $1 around 1989-1990 and never crossed back, so your description doesn't match your vehicle comparison.
- war1025 8y ago
  I know for a fact that gas was $0.98/gallon in the late 90s, at least in my hometown. We went on a trip to Montana and I remember wondering how people afforded to drive with gas at the $1.28/gallon or whatever it was there.
  - StudentStuff 8y ago
    Perhaps you were using 82 octane gas? When you get into parts of the Southwest, gas stations down there offer some really low octane gas. I personally always go for premium (92 octane) at a large chain like Costco when going cross country if the local gas stations are slinging anything below 87 octane gas (which is the lowest commonly offered on the West Coast), as it leads me to think the gas offered at that station/in that city is all of lower caliber. Obvs not selling lots of high or normal octane gas at least!
    - war1025 8y ago
      87 / 89 were the two options (Iowa).

SwellJoe 8y ago

The US car industry has made that mistake multiple times. But, even when gas prices were climbing, Ford made most of their profits on trucks. They kinda own the US truck market, making about a third of all trucks sold (as I recall, anyway), and more than any other make, by far. I don't know what it is in the international market, but I think Ford trucks are strong in a lot of other markets, too. I don't know that you're wrong, but I am holding some F lately (mostly because it went on sale on disappointing earnings last quarter), so I kinda think that in the short term it's a good move. The writing has been on the wall for a while about this move, though it's more dramatic than I expected. I thought they'd drop to a lineup of four cars, instead of just two. They have begun focusing on hybrid and electric drive trains for their trucks, and they already have probably the best economy option in pickups with the EcoBoost 6 cylinder that tows like a big V8 (an F150 with EcoBoost and tow package has a tow capacity similar to my older diesel F250), and gets car-like MPG. So, it's not that they're ignoring efficiency, it's just that they're acknowledging that American consumers like big-ass vehicles for their big asses to ride around in (I make fun of American consumer culture and its dumb choices, but I have an F250 for towing my house, so I'm included in that demographic). So...it could play out like the 70s and early 80s did, but I'm not so sure it will. I think we're going to see car makers take a beating on other fronts, but I dunno exactly how it'll play out. Fewer young people are buying cars and more are opting for transit and Lyft/Uber. More young people are moving to cities where that's a feasible lifestyle choice. So, the pool of people buying cars is looking like it's gonna shrink. Cars are lasting longer, too, and quality has gotten pretty good across the board. So, cars made today might make it through to the end of car ownership as we know it. Again, I don't know how it'll change exactly, but it's looking like fleets of self-driving cars owned by Lyft/Uber/Tesla/GM/etc. are gonna replace a lot of current car ownership within the next decade. One other point about trucks: People outside of cities buy trucks at a much higher rate. Vehicle ownership in rural areas is still very, very, high, by necessity, due to no mass transit and inconvenience and expense of ride sharing services when the trips are very long and far out. So, Ford may just be acknowledging that city driving by individuals is on the way out, while we have a few more years with a solid rural truck market.

walshemj 8y ago
Presumably Ford could repurpose their European models quickly.

pg_bot 8y ago

Ford caters more to the business market who are buying these vehicles due to their usage in heavy duty hauling. The fact that they are focusing on trucks/SUVs doesn't have to exclude moving to electric vehicles in the future. It's the same as any company focusing on enterprise customers rather than consumers.

duxup 8y ago

They still have the Focus and as I understand it the margins on the other vehicles are just crazy high that hedging your bets with other models about possible fuel prices .... would cost a lot.

Fomite 8y ago
They're billing the "Focus Active" as a crossover, not the Focus-style hot hatch, aren't they?
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

ebbv 8y ago

Yep. And not having many affordable models as well. When the economy inevitably “corrects” they will be saying “Oh crap who could have seen this coming!” Again.

briandear 8y ago

When gas prices are high, people still want and need trucks. It’s the large passenger SUVs that take the biggest hit on gas prices.