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I'm still completely convinced that this whole scandal will not damage Facebook a bit, in the long term. Yeah, the stock is going to be a bit lower for some wee

by akuji1993 9y ago

I'm still completely convinced that this whole scandal will not damage Facebook a bit, in the long term. Yeah, the stock is going to be a bit lower for some weeks, some people will leave, but the largest part of the Facebook users has not even realised the scandal in full scale. They're not going anywhere, they're going to continue as is, since there really is not alternative for Facebook right now and tbh they would just probably do the same thing to their users so why bother. The only solution for people concerned with this is giving up on social media all together. The majority however won't care at all and still continue using Facebook.

mk89 9y ago
Wait until GDPR is here, then we might discuss about it. I really wonder how they will pass all those "privacy checks".
- adventured 9y ago
  It doesn't matter. They have the money, people and time to throw at compliance. GDPR won't dent Facebook in the least. They'll bend where they have to, and no further. They'll pay occasional fines and that won't matter either. If you take it to an extreme and the only thing they can do is show non-personalized advertising and do zero tracking, they'll still print billions in profit in the EU market. That's what owning most of Europe does for you. Their gross profit margin globally is just under ~87%. Cut that in half and they still have a very profitable business with margins comparable to Google. Facebook could run entirely untargeted advertising on their platform globally and still yield enviable profit margins. Their platform is extremely tightly run on costs compared to most tech giants. People talking about doom on this, aren't discussing facts or using logic, they're projecting a revenge fantasy out of emotion. It's driven by a desire to punish Facebook.
  - aje403 9y ago
    Please stop, what you’re saying is too accurate. Could you potentially edit some pitchforks and such into your comment?
  - HenryBemis 9y ago
    "occasional fines"? Living in EU, and I am thrilled at the party we will have, when 1-2 million people/facebook users will send this letter to FB [1]. I strongly believe that this will hurt them financially (where it actually matters/hurts). I (try to) sinkhole every tracker, advertiser etc. on my PC and jailbroken iphone. I am sure that I don't block every one, but 90% is better than 0%. It may keep me busy, but when I start receiving the answers that FB, Amazon, etc. have provided my data to XYZ broker, and then I will be more thrilled when I send THOSE guys the same letter. Of course after every inquiry they will be receiving a "right to be forgotten" letter. Hurt them where it does until they learn to respect people and not see them as items to be traded. [1]: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nightmare-letter-subject-access-request-under-gdpr-karbaliotis/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nightmare-letter-subject-acce... Ps: I am not a hater. I enjoyed FB until it started to try to manipulate me e.g. altering my timeline and showing me what THEY deemed is 'good for me' (profitable for them). Pps: They make enough from advertising. It was excessive greed that got them to start the sell-out.
    - evgen 9y ago
      The idea that a GDPR request will cause Facebook any significant financial harm is laughable. They already have a facility to enable you to download your data, expect a similar tool or portal to appear that will provide you with access to this data. No more, no less, and a couple of months work of a few engineers and interns.
    - jsjohnst 9y ago
      > and jailbroken iphone As someone who’s Jailbroken dozens of iPhones, I understand the appeal. That said, you seem to prefer privacy/security, and I can unequivocally state having a jail broken iphone is a huge step backwards on both.
    - cowkingdeluxe 9y ago
      Do you think it will be possible for US citizens to take advantage of GDPR by just saying they live or are a citizen of the EU? Will Facebook even check or will they just play it safe and accept most requests?
  - rando444 9y ago
    It does matter because if/when they comply with these new regulations, it diminishes large portions of reasons to be mad at them because it will help curb all of the shady stuff they have been doing for more than a decade. So yes, it does matter, and them being compliant is a good thing.
  - mk89 9y ago
    Sometimes it's not about "oh I am gonna crush you financially" but "if you want to play, you need to play by the rules".
austincheney 9y ago
It is an easily testable premise. Ask anybody if they have deleted their Facebook account. If they are hesitating they probably won't.
- briandear 9y ago
  Actually deleting the account doesn't matter -- if you don't use the account, that's what matters more and here's why. Facebook's revenue is almost exclusively from advertising. Advertising costs on Facebook depend on reach, PPM, and/or PPC. Facebook advertisers don't pay for "active users" or even "users" -- they pay for PPM/PPC. In other words, your data is relatively worthless if you aren't around to be targeted based upon it. Despite having a profile, if a user isn't there to see the ads, that means less reach and fewer clicks. When advertisers realize the apparent ineffectiveness of FB advertising, ad rates will decline, reducing revenues for FB. It's unlikely FB would actually run out of money because with reduced scale comes reduced costs -- eventually the entire platform might be operated by Zuckerberg at at a WeWork rented desk after having laid off everyone else. My point is that your data is pretty much useless if you aren't there to be exploited because of it. Facebook and Google are huge really for one main reason -- self-service advertising. Some local bike shop can experiment with $200 in PPC super-easily. That local bike shop can't as easily run a radio ad or TV ad and measure the results as easily. So Google and FB have made advertising something that is accessible to those with both lower budgets and lower sophistication. The Coca Colas and General Motors of the world don't care about FB or Google at all -- they have the resources to sponsor the Olympics or national TV shows or pro baseball teams.
  - austincheney 9y ago
    Technically that is correct, but I don't really agree in reality. Most users lack the discipline to simply walk away from a still available account when Facebook is a savage drug addiction for so many people. I downloaded my Facebook archive this weekend and it was a massive 12kb. I know entirely what it means to have a living account and not feed the beast, but I am also the rarest exception that disproves the norm. Deleting a Facebook account means the drug addict cannot relapse.
  - 9y ago
baalimago 9y ago
Many look to Twitter as their new social media platform, that together with IG (which is owned by facebook sure, but it's "harder" to be political there, which it all comes down to in the end) and Snapchat as a messenger. Google plus failed, so why wouldn't Facebook eventually do so also? The youth don't have Facebook, it's mostly the 20-40 year olds who do. This 20-40 generation follow the mainstream media news and most of them are capable of realizing the harm in not protecting ones own privacy. Also, the current theme of news regarding social media is that it's being seen as a threat to democracy due to the ease of massive manipulation through political propaganda. A huge attack! Threaten democracy and the people will hate it.
- fibers 9y ago
  Except instas sponsored ads are more pernicious (from a mobile ux pov) than fbs including the fact that fb still tracks you on every site. All credit to the Zucc for buying insta and whatsapp since the entire world (especially on whatsapp) are locked in that ecosystem.
- r3bl 9y ago
  Google+ had all the necessary requirements to be successful, but it failed at creating the network effect. Facebook does have the network effect, so killing its network effect will be much more difficult.
  - ams6110 9y ago
    If Google+ were launching today, they might have a better chance. More people are interested in Facebook alternatives. At the time, Facebook had already supplanted MySpace and Google+ didn't offer anything attractive enough to switch again.
    - randomsearch 9y ago
      No point swapping Facebook for another advertising-driven social network in the same vein. If a company like Apple were running it and people were paying for it, that would be a different matter. Google have contributed to privacy issues, e.g. with poor permission management.
wruwew8uu9 9y ago
because they make it so easy to join but difficult to leave. It's basically a cult
shanghaiaway 9y ago
Every company's destiny is decided by revenue and profit. Facebook will be fine as long as the advertising money keeps coming in. Will it? I don't see why not. Companies don't care about user privacy.
- rqs 9y ago
  Agreed. Many people didn't realize that we still living in a global society that pretty much made by many super large sized Black Pearl[0]s and Jack Sparrow(s) is the captain. Dear Captain Jack is cool sometimes, and could bring you to the treasure, but you should never trust him that he will taking care of you. In fact, regardless what he said, he don't care about you even a little, all he care about is himself. If you fell off board, he will not bother to save you, unless it's out of coincidence. So yes, you may follow him closely for an amazing adventure if you want to, but whether or not you will survive in the end, it's all depends on you. [0] Yes, that pirate ship.
- gm-conspiracy 9y ago
  Companies do care about being associated with negative PR, though. Plus, how effective is the advertising in motivating purchase versus sowing seeds of discontent? It has utility, yes, but what the majority seem to consider, "not good".
  - pbhjpbhj 9y ago
    Pure Capitalists, whose values most of the larger companies are run under, care only about the profit. Sometimes negative PR brings additional profit, there is no remorse in such cases. Facebook's controlling minds don't care about you, they care about if there's reduction in profit [or profit generating ability].
    - kolbe 9y ago
      You don't have to abstract this too much. Facebook's "controlling minds" are just one mind: Mark's. Facebook does what Zuckerberg wants it to do. And if he doesn't want to maximize profit, he doesn't have to.
OliverJones 9y ago
> the largest part of the Facebook users has not even > realized the scandal in full scale. Exactly. That's why they must be regulated. Pharma companies, food companies, and airlines, to mention three, have the same sorts of characteristics in their businesses. Examples: Airlines have regulations because the typical user has no way to evaluate maintenance regimes or navigation procedures. The big information-hoovering dotcoms need the same sorts of regulations for the same sorts of reasons. "We obtained user permission" needs to be a stronger claim than "we tricked users into checking a box."
- Fiahil 9y ago
  Regulation come in many forms, and I believe the first step will be GDPR.
  - nojvek 9y ago
    GDPR is a god send. It would never have come out of the US, the corporate funded politicians would have just ate it alive. But because European politicians have some integrity left and internet is inherently global, most internet companies need to do these for everyone. Yes, it’s not perfect, but a great first step.
    - madez 9y ago
      The internet is as inherently global as the postal services are. What differentiates it is that it's faster, cheaper, and immaterial. In principle, the legal situation hasn't changed compared to before the internet was a thing. If you just want to do business in one country over the internet, you can do so. What has changed is that a company and a customer can reach each other easily, cheaply and fast aross national borders, using the internet. The drawback to international business is laws, rules and policies compliance. Having that in mind, the project Gutenberg lawsuit makes sense. Imagine a service that copies a requested book and sends you that copy, all by postal services. If that company shipped into a country where the book in question stills protected by copyright, then it is clear that there will be legal action.
- 9y ago
BDGC 9y ago
Anecdote here: I was talking to a college student who hadn’t heard about the whole Cambridge Analytica to-do. Why? She uses Facebook to check the news, and unsurprisingly it wasn’t coming up on trending news.
- patrickaljord 9y ago
  It came up a lot on my newsfeed, including the post by Mark Zuckerberg about it which went viral https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10104712037900071 https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10104712037900071 Is your friend into tech news a lot? If not maybe that's why it wasn't shown. The only people I know who care about this story are tech people.
- yndoendo 9y ago
  That is the whole issue, using one source for news when knowing any source has a percent of bias. Only way around the issue to keep an open mind and actually view new sources that you might or might not like to get a whole picture. Don't like CNN nor FOX but still skim them for news, articles not TV nor videos.
meddlepal 9y ago
I don't have a single non-technical friend who cares. Theyve assumed FB has been doing this all along and that's just the tradeoff for using the service. To that end they're not wrong.
dwighttk 9y ago
put your money where your mouth is and buy that stock
stult 9y ago
I don't know that it's that simple. Facebook survives because of network effects. Which means it is vulnerable to mass exodus, sort of like a run on the bank. So maybe no one single scandal will bring it down, but a slow, steady trickle of controversy will chip away at the user base until it hits a critical point and spirals to nothing. The continuous publication of evidence about its negative mental health effects, the scandals about political manipulation, and the terrible privacy practices seem to be driving away many of the trend setters, which means the apathetic masses will eventually follow.
JustSomeNobody 9y ago
It won't. Outside of TechCrunch, HN and NYT, nobody's talking about it. My wife and I are both software engineers, and nobody is talking about it at our respective work places. We were socializing with a large group this weekend, and while FB was brought up, it was only in the context of following a group. Nobody mentioned the "scandal" going on. Not a single person. Ok, fine, this is anecdata. But we're talking heavily tech leaning people and we didn't hear anything from them. Nothing is going to come of this.
kolbe 9y ago
Intelligent and wealthy people care. That's the group of people who made facebook what is it today, and everyone else will eventually leave if the people they admire have left.
Slansitartop 9y ago
> I'm still completely convinced that this whole scandal will not damage Facebook a bit, in the long term. Yeah, the stock is going to be a bit lower for some weeks, some people will leave, but the largest part of the Facebook users has not even realised the scandal in full scale They'll probably be damaged if FB becomes a downmarket social network only used by those who are unsophisticated and unaware. It may not be apparent now, but it will be when some new product captures those users and starts building social momentum that FB can't counter. That's literally how FB got big, and I think they've only been able to so far prevent it happening to them because they've been allowed to buy their competition.
api 9y ago
I'm afraid that I agree. Convenience and network effects are the two most awesomely powerful drivers of adoption and retention and Facebook has both.

mk89 9y ago

Wait until GDPR is here, then we might discuss about it. I really wonder how they will pass all those "privacy checks".

adventured 9y ago
It doesn't matter. They have the money, people and time to throw at compliance. GDPR won't dent Facebook in the least. They'll bend where they have to, and no further. They'll pay occasional fines and that won't matter either. If you take it to an extreme and the only thing they can do is show non-personalized advertising and do zero tracking, they'll still print billions in profit in the EU market. That's what owning most of Europe does for you. Their gross profit margin globally is just under ~87%. Cut that in half and they still have a very profitable business with margins comparable to Google. Facebook could run entirely untargeted advertising on their platform globally and still yield enviable profit margins. Their platform is extremely tightly run on costs compared to most tech giants. People talking about doom on this, aren't discussing facts or using logic, they're projecting a revenge fantasy out of emotion. It's driven by a desire to punish Facebook.
- aje403 9y ago
  Please stop, what you’re saying is too accurate. Could you potentially edit some pitchforks and such into your comment?
- HenryBemis 9y ago
  "occasional fines"? Living in EU, and I am thrilled at the party we will have, when 1-2 million people/facebook users will send this letter to FB [1]. I strongly believe that this will hurt them financially (where it actually matters/hurts). I (try to) sinkhole every tracker, advertiser etc. on my PC and jailbroken iphone. I am sure that I don't block every one, but 90% is better than 0%. It may keep me busy, but when I start receiving the answers that FB, Amazon, etc. have provided my data to XYZ broker, and then I will be more thrilled when I send THOSE guys the same letter. Of course after every inquiry they will be receiving a "right to be forgotten" letter. Hurt them where it does until they learn to respect people and not see them as items to be traded. [1]: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nightmare-letter-subject-access-request-under-gdpr-karbaliotis/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nightmare-letter-subject-acce... Ps: I am not a hater. I enjoyed FB until it started to try to manipulate me e.g. altering my timeline and showing me what THEY deemed is 'good for me' (profitable for them). Pps: They make enough from advertising. It was excessive greed that got them to start the sell-out.
  - evgen 9y ago
    The idea that a GDPR request will cause Facebook any significant financial harm is laughable. They already have a facility to enable you to download your data, expect a similar tool or portal to appear that will provide you with access to this data. No more, no less, and a couple of months work of a few engineers and interns.
  - jsjohnst 9y ago
    > and jailbroken iphone As someone who’s Jailbroken dozens of iPhones, I understand the appeal. That said, you seem to prefer privacy/security, and I can unequivocally state having a jail broken iphone is a huge step backwards on both.
  - cowkingdeluxe 9y ago
    Do you think it will be possible for US citizens to take advantage of GDPR by just saying they live or are a citizen of the EU? Will Facebook even check or will they just play it safe and accept most requests?
- rando444 9y ago
  It does matter because if/when they comply with these new regulations, it diminishes large portions of reasons to be mad at them because it will help curb all of the shady stuff they have been doing for more than a decade. So yes, it does matter, and them being compliant is a good thing.
- mk89 9y ago
  Sometimes it's not about "oh I am gonna crush you financially" but "if you want to play, you need to play by the rules".

austincheney 9y ago

It is an easily testable premise. Ask anybody if they have deleted their Facebook account. If they are hesitating they probably won't.

briandear 9y ago
Actually deleting the account doesn't matter -- if you don't use the account, that's what matters more and here's why. Facebook's revenue is almost exclusively from advertising. Advertising costs on Facebook depend on reach, PPM, and/or PPC. Facebook advertisers don't pay for "active users" or even "users" -- they pay for PPM/PPC. In other words, your data is relatively worthless if you aren't around to be targeted based upon it. Despite having a profile, if a user isn't there to see the ads, that means less reach and fewer clicks. When advertisers realize the apparent ineffectiveness of FB advertising, ad rates will decline, reducing revenues for FB. It's unlikely FB would actually run out of money because with reduced scale comes reduced costs -- eventually the entire platform might be operated by Zuckerberg at at a WeWork rented desk after having laid off everyone else. My point is that your data is pretty much useless if you aren't there to be exploited because of it. Facebook and Google are huge really for one main reason -- self-service advertising. Some local bike shop can experiment with $200 in PPC super-easily. That local bike shop can't as easily run a radio ad or TV ad and measure the results as easily. So Google and FB have made advertising something that is accessible to those with both lower budgets and lower sophistication. The Coca Colas and General Motors of the world don't care about FB or Google at all -- they have the resources to sponsor the Olympics or national TV shows or pro baseball teams.
- austincheney 9y ago
  Technically that is correct, but I don't really agree in reality. Most users lack the discipline to simply walk away from a still available account when Facebook is a savage drug addiction for so many people. I downloaded my Facebook archive this weekend and it was a massive 12kb. I know entirely what it means to have a living account and not feed the beast, but I am also the rarest exception that disproves the norm. Deleting a Facebook account means the drug addict cannot relapse.
- 9y ago

baalimago 9y ago

Many look to Twitter as their new social media platform, that together with IG (which is owned by facebook sure, but it's "harder" to be political there, which it all comes down to in the end) and Snapchat as a messenger. Google plus failed, so why wouldn't Facebook eventually do so also? The youth don't have Facebook, it's mostly the 20-40 year olds who do. This 20-40 generation follow the mainstream media news and most of them are capable of realizing the harm in not protecting ones own privacy. Also, the current theme of news regarding social media is that it's being seen as a threat to democracy due to the ease of massive manipulation through political propaganda. A huge attack! Threaten democracy and the people will hate it.

fibers 9y ago
Except instas sponsored ads are more pernicious (from a mobile ux pov) than fbs including the fact that fb still tracks you on every site. All credit to the Zucc for buying insta and whatsapp since the entire world (especially on whatsapp) are locked in that ecosystem.
r3bl 9y ago
Google+ had all the necessary requirements to be successful, but it failed at creating the network effect. Facebook does have the network effect, so killing its network effect will be much more difficult.
- ams6110 9y ago
  If Google+ were launching today, they might have a better chance. More people are interested in Facebook alternatives. At the time, Facebook had already supplanted MySpace and Google+ didn't offer anything attractive enough to switch again.
  - randomsearch 9y ago
    No point swapping Facebook for another advertising-driven social network in the same vein. If a company like Apple were running it and people were paying for it, that would be a different matter. Google have contributed to privacy issues, e.g. with poor permission management.

wruwew8uu9 9y ago

because they make it so easy to join but difficult to leave. It's basically a cult

shanghaiaway 9y ago

Every company's destiny is decided by revenue and profit. Facebook will be fine as long as the advertising money keeps coming in. Will it? I don't see why not. Companies don't care about user privacy.

rqs 9y ago
Agreed. Many people didn't realize that we still living in a global society that pretty much made by many super large sized Black Pearl[0]s and Jack Sparrow(s) is the captain. Dear Captain Jack is cool sometimes, and could bring you to the treasure, but you should never trust him that he will taking care of you. In fact, regardless what he said, he don't care about you even a little, all he care about is himself. If you fell off board, he will not bother to save you, unless it's out of coincidence. So yes, you may follow him closely for an amazing adventure if you want to, but whether or not you will survive in the end, it's all depends on you. [0] Yes, that pirate ship.
gm-conspiracy 9y ago
Companies do care about being associated with negative PR, though. Plus, how effective is the advertising in motivating purchase versus sowing seeds of discontent? It has utility, yes, but what the majority seem to consider, "not good".
- pbhjpbhj 9y ago
  Pure Capitalists, whose values most of the larger companies are run under, care only about the profit. Sometimes negative PR brings additional profit, there is no remorse in such cases. Facebook's controlling minds don't care about you, they care about if there's reduction in profit [or profit generating ability].
  - kolbe 9y ago
    You don't have to abstract this too much. Facebook's "controlling minds" are just one mind: Mark's. Facebook does what Zuckerberg wants it to do. And if he doesn't want to maximize profit, he doesn't have to.

OliverJones 9y ago

> the largest part of the Facebook users has not even > realized the scandal in full scale. Exactly. That's why they must be regulated. Pharma companies, food companies, and airlines, to mention three, have the same sorts of characteristics in their businesses. Examples: Airlines have regulations because the typical user has no way to evaluate maintenance regimes or navigation procedures. The big information-hoovering dotcoms need the same sorts of regulations for the same sorts of reasons. "We obtained user permission" needs to be a stronger claim than "we tricked users into checking a box."

Fiahil 9y ago
Regulation come in many forms, and I believe the first step will be GDPR.
- nojvek 9y ago
  GDPR is a god send. It would never have come out of the US, the corporate funded politicians would have just ate it alive. But because European politicians have some integrity left and internet is inherently global, most internet companies need to do these for everyone. Yes, it’s not perfect, but a great first step.
  - madez 9y ago
    The internet is as inherently global as the postal services are. What differentiates it is that it's faster, cheaper, and immaterial. In principle, the legal situation hasn't changed compared to before the internet was a thing. If you just want to do business in one country over the internet, you can do so. What has changed is that a company and a customer can reach each other easily, cheaply and fast aross national borders, using the internet. The drawback to international business is laws, rules and policies compliance. Having that in mind, the project Gutenberg lawsuit makes sense. Imagine a service that copies a requested book and sends you that copy, all by postal services. If that company shipped into a country where the book in question stills protected by copyright, then it is clear that there will be legal action.
9y ago

BDGC 9y ago

Anecdote here: I was talking to a college student who hadn’t heard about the whole Cambridge Analytica to-do. Why? She uses Facebook to check the news, and unsurprisingly it wasn’t coming up on trending news.

patrickaljord 9y ago
It came up a lot on my newsfeed, including the post by Mark Zuckerberg about it which went viral https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10104712037900071 https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10104712037900071 Is your friend into tech news a lot? If not maybe that's why it wasn't shown. The only people I know who care about this story are tech people.
yndoendo 9y ago
That is the whole issue, using one source for news when knowing any source has a percent of bias. Only way around the issue to keep an open mind and actually view new sources that you might or might not like to get a whole picture. Don't like CNN nor FOX but still skim them for news, articles not TV nor videos.

meddlepal 9y ago

I don't have a single non-technical friend who cares. Theyve assumed FB has been doing this all along and that's just the tradeoff for using the service. To that end they're not wrong.

dwighttk 9y ago

put your money where your mouth is and buy that stock

stult 9y ago

I don't know that it's that simple. Facebook survives because of network effects. Which means it is vulnerable to mass exodus, sort of like a run on the bank. So maybe no one single scandal will bring it down, but a slow, steady trickle of controversy will chip away at the user base until it hits a critical point and spirals to nothing. The continuous publication of evidence about its negative mental health effects, the scandals about political manipulation, and the terrible privacy practices seem to be driving away many of the trend setters, which means the apathetic masses will eventually follow.

JustSomeNobody 9y ago

It won't. Outside of TechCrunch, HN and NYT, nobody's talking about it. My wife and I are both software engineers, and nobody is talking about it at our respective work places. We were socializing with a large group this weekend, and while FB was brought up, it was only in the context of following a group. Nobody mentioned the "scandal" going on. Not a single person. Ok, fine, this is anecdata. But we're talking heavily tech leaning people and we didn't hear anything from them. Nothing is going to come of this.

kolbe 9y ago

Intelligent and wealthy people care. That's the group of people who made facebook what is it today, and everyone else will eventually leave if the people they admire have left.

Slansitartop 9y ago

> I'm still completely convinced that this whole scandal will not damage Facebook a bit, in the long term. Yeah, the stock is going to be a bit lower for some weeks, some people will leave, but the largest part of the Facebook users has not even realised the scandal in full scale They'll probably be damaged if FB becomes a downmarket social network only used by those who are unsophisticated and unaware. It may not be apparent now, but it will be when some new product captures those users and starts building social momentum that FB can't counter. That's literally how FB got big, and I think they've only been able to so far prevent it happening to them because they've been allowed to buy their competition.

api 9y ago

I'm afraid that I agree. Convenience and network effects are the two most awesomely powerful drivers of adoption and retention and Facebook has both.