8 ms·

Every year around this time we get the singles day news that yet another record has been broken. I'm going to guess it's going to be the same next year and the

by lunaru 9y ago

Every year around this time we get the singles day news that yet another record has been broken. I'm going to guess it's going to be the same next year and the year after that since the Chinese middle class is growing (and adopting Western debt-driven spending). Not really a surprise. If anyone in the US wants to partake in the frenzy, I believe aliexpress is doing a Singles Day thing (using US timezone, so it hasn't started yet as of this writing), but be careful with the shipping timelines on the products. I've had situations where items didn't arrive until weeks later and I had already forgotten that I'd bought anything.

rrhd 9y ago
> If anyone in the US wants to partake in the frenzy because we should totally turn veterans day into a ridiculous spend a lot day.
taurath 9y ago
I really don't think the US is prepared for what happens when the entire world turns towards Chinese consumers and away from them.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  At what percentage of the global economy do you think the US will become uninteresting? (it's currently between ¼ and ⅕ of the global economy)
  - crdoconnor 9y ago
    Once China reverses its mercantilist policy that % will plummet and the US will suffer very high levels of inflation. That will probably happen once corruption in China becomes manageable, the Chinese stop moving their assets offshore and the US has no industrial technological advantage any more (i.e. once China can make equivalently good airplanes and microprocessors).
    - justrobert 9y ago
      You mean the Chinese government will stop protecting their currency and hurt their export? That isn't likely to happen soon even though other governments want them to float freely rather than in a price band. China doesn't hold enough USD to hurt the US economy without hurting themselves even more seeing as the bonds are non-callable by the buyer.
      - crdoconnor 9y ago
        >You mean the Chinese government will stop protecting their currency and hurt their export? Right. Exactly like the US does right now. >China doesn't hold enough USD to hurt the US economy It isn't about who holds the little green bits of paper. It's about who can turn off the wealth spigot. The US would experience a huge bout of inflation right now if China decided to just float, it's just that China would probably suffer too. Once the US has nothing China wants (soon) they will have no reason to keep giving us a bargain on their imports.
        lamontcg 9y ago
        I've been reading this argument since at least 2003.
        crdoconnor 9y ago
        And? In 2003 they weren't even close to technological and industrial parity but even then it was fairly evident that they would be within < 25 years. Now they're not far off parity - maybe 5-7 years before they can manufacture anything the US can. Trends that continue for a long time do not continue forever. That goes double for things that look like a free lunch.
        craftyguy 9y ago
        Exactly. People seem to forget that the fastest (publicly known) supercomputer in the world is made of components that are 100% chinese made (including the CPUs). They are catching up fast, and yet folks continue to bury their heads in the sand.
- oblio 9y ago
  Why would this happen? Are French markets ignored because the US exists? Nobody wants to leave billions on the table...
  - onlyrealcuzzo 9y ago
    When you're designing an iPhone, the French market is an afterthought. The US and Chinese markets are not. In a decade or two, the Chinese and Indian markets could get so huge that the US market becomes an afterthought. Although unlikely, it's a definite possibility.
nullnilvoid 9y ago
This is interesting because the US was the record holder less than five years ago. Five years later, China's Single's Day is several times that of the US's Black Friday. Very soon, it will be an order of magnitude bigger than the Black Friday of the US.
- taobility 9y ago
  More reasonable reason, the online shopping experience in China is much much better than in US. In China, if you are living some metropolis, the logistic is really faster than in US without any prime membership (normally within two days). And also the price is much cheaper compared with physical retail store. So, most people would prefer online shopping if possible.
  - geomark 9y ago
    I live in Thailand and buying from US online merchants is usually a nonstarter because of shipping costs which are often much more than the price of the item itself. When I buy something from Aliexpress it is usually free shipping, or something reasonable for heavier items. There is no Amazon here but there are a couple local versions, Lazada being one. They usually have shorter delivery times but cost more than Aliexpress, though not always. US online merchants aren't even in the ballpark.
    - voltagex_ 9y ago
      How long does it take for packages to get to you? In Australia I had a run of less than two weeks but it's been back up to a month recently.
      - geomark 9y ago
        It varies a lot. Sometimes 2 weeks, more often 3 to 4. Currently a number of items seem overdue at more than 5 weeks.
    - curun1r 9y ago
      I ordered from Amazon while I was in Thailand and it actually worked pretty well. The shipping wasn't cheap, but it wasn't prohibitive. The most expensive part was the import duties charged by Thai customs. It still ended up being cheaper than if I'd bought the items locally. Though I was on an island in the south, so that might not have been the case in Bangkok. Still...it's definitely not a non-starter. And with the exception of shipping updates which were non-existent once Thai post got their hands on the package, everything worked surprisingly well. All told, it took 7 days to arrive, shipping was ~$50 and customs was ~$65 on a ~$300 order that would have cost over $500 locally where the selection would've meant getting something that wasn't exactly what I wanted.
a1371 9y ago
That is typical for the order times, it takes weeks. Now that it is the singles day, it would take even longer. An easy solution is to look for the ones with ePacket shipping. It is tracked and you'd normally expect it in two weeks. Some give it for free, some charge about a dollar for it.
tunetine 9y ago
If you're in the U.S. just wait a few more years because this is what Amazon models their Prime day after.
PhasmaFelis 9y ago
> I've had situations where items didn't arrive until weeks later and I had already forgotten that I'd bought anything. I love that! It's like getting a present from myself. (Depending on how important the item was, of course...)
- cjsuk 9y ago
  I do this with Chinese electronic modules. I order a bunch of interesting things and get mailbombed about a month later. $10 spent is hours of fun! Granted most of it is crap but it’s fun finding that out and tutting and shaking my head in disgust.
geomark 9y ago
I added a few dollars to the frenzy. Been adding items to my Aliexpress shopping cart for the last week. Mostly small electronics hobbyist items and Arduino compatible boards and sensor modules. Pulled the trigger after the 11.11 sale opened up.
- voltagex_ 9y ago
  Just out of interest, can you check a couple of prices on Dealextreme, Gearbest and Banggood to see if they're comparable?
  - geomark 9y ago
    Among the items I ordered today: HC-06: Dealextreme $5.50, Banggood $5.99, Gearbest $6.57, Aliexpress $2.58 Arduino Nano v3.0: Dealextreme $3.46, Banggood $2.77, Gearbest $4.27, Aliexpress $1.66
    - voltagex_ 9y ago
      Wow! I haven't seen that kind of differential for a while. I wonder if it's just because of 11.11
      - geomark 9y ago
        I made a mental note of some of the prices before the 11.11 discount kicked in. The discounts were around 10%, sometimes less. So the Aliexpress regular prices were already way lower. The thing is, on Aliexpress there are many, many sellers of each of those items and there is often a significant price difference among them. If that is due to quality or delivery times I have not figured it out yet. So I usually buy from the cheapest who has a fair number of sales and few if any complaints in the reviews.
    - duckwheat 9y ago
      Man, can you share some more of your shopping list for those of us with similar interests?
Hurtak 9y ago
Are the sales numbers inflation adjusted?
throwaway613834 9y ago
> I've had situations where items didn't arrive until weeks later and I had already forgotten that I'd bought anything. This might be a good litmus test for whether you actually need what you're buying :-)
shalmanese 9y ago
It's still a hugely significant number. $18B is $13.20USD for every man, woman and child in China. Considering China's GDP is $8000USD, that's basically 60% of a single day's earnings for every person in China being spent at just one company in 12 hours. It would be the same as everyone in the US spending $100 on the same day or $32B in a single day (which is almost half of US online spending for a year).
- adventured 9y ago
  US consumers spend over $32 billion every day of the year. The average American adult spends $57,000 per year as of 2016. The consumer economy in the US is around $13 trillion. http://www.businessinsider.com/13-trillion-us-consumer-getting-bigger-2016-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/13-trillion-us-consumer-getti... China's GDP is $11.x trillion for 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...
  - shalmanese 9y ago
    That's a bit of a misleading stat since most consumer spending is on stuff like housing/transportation/food/utilities.
    - adventured 9y ago
      That's not misleading at all. That's how consumer spending is measured. How would you go about explaining that water, electricity and food are not consumption goods, but an iPad is?
      - OJFord 9y ago
        It's misleading here because it has nothing really to do with Alibaba or Amazon; of course there are differences in cost of living in the USA and China, the interesting figure here is online spending, or luxury spending, etc.
      - pwinnski 9y ago
seanmcdirmid 9y ago
Singles day is way too close to Black Friday, I don’t see room for both shopping frenzies in November. Besides, most cultures aren’t into numerology as much as Chinese are (they don’t think 11/11 is that interesting), so the gimmick doesn’t really translate well outside of china.
abc03 9y ago
And your prediction will certainly be true because Chinese are usually not very honest and like to brag that they have just set another new record (I'm married to a Chinese and she says the same).

by lunaru 9y ago

rrhd 9y ago

> If anyone in the US wants to partake in the frenzy because we should totally turn veterans day into a ridiculous spend a lot day.

taurath 9y ago

I really don't think the US is prepared for what happens when the entire world turns towards Chinese consumers and away from them.

maxerickson 9y ago
At what percentage of the global economy do you think the US will become uninteresting? (it's currently between ¼ and ⅕ of the global economy)
- crdoconnor 9y ago
  Once China reverses its mercantilist policy that % will plummet and the US will suffer very high levels of inflation. That will probably happen once corruption in China becomes manageable, the Chinese stop moving their assets offshore and the US has no industrial technological advantage any more (i.e. once China can make equivalently good airplanes and microprocessors).
  - justrobert 9y ago
    You mean the Chinese government will stop protecting their currency and hurt their export? That isn't likely to happen soon even though other governments want them to float freely rather than in a price band. China doesn't hold enough USD to hurt the US economy without hurting themselves even more seeing as the bonds are non-callable by the buyer.
    - crdoconnor 9y ago
      >You mean the Chinese government will stop protecting their currency and hurt their export? Right. Exactly like the US does right now. >China doesn't hold enough USD to hurt the US economy It isn't about who holds the little green bits of paper. It's about who can turn off the wealth spigot. The US would experience a huge bout of inflation right now if China decided to just float, it's just that China would probably suffer too. Once the US has nothing China wants (soon) they will have no reason to keep giving us a bargain on their imports.
      - lamontcg 9y ago
        I've been reading this argument since at least 2003.
        crdoconnor 9y ago
        And? In 2003 they weren't even close to technological and industrial parity but even then it was fairly evident that they would be within < 25 years. Now they're not far off parity - maybe 5-7 years before they can manufacture anything the US can. Trends that continue for a long time do not continue forever. That goes double for things that look like a free lunch.
        craftyguy 9y ago
        Exactly. People seem to forget that the fastest (publicly known) supercomputer in the world is made of components that are 100% chinese made (including the CPUs). They are catching up fast, and yet folks continue to bury their heads in the sand.
oblio 9y ago
Why would this happen? Are French markets ignored because the US exists? Nobody wants to leave billions on the table...
- onlyrealcuzzo 9y ago
  When you're designing an iPhone, the French market is an afterthought. The US and Chinese markets are not. In a decade or two, the Chinese and Indian markets could get so huge that the US market becomes an afterthought. Although unlikely, it's a definite possibility.

nullnilvoid 9y ago

This is interesting because the US was the record holder less than five years ago. Five years later, China's Single's Day is several times that of the US's Black Friday. Very soon, it will be an order of magnitude bigger than the Black Friday of the US.

taobility 9y ago
More reasonable reason, the online shopping experience in China is much much better than in US. In China, if you are living some metropolis, the logistic is really faster than in US without any prime membership (normally within two days). And also the price is much cheaper compared with physical retail store. So, most people would prefer online shopping if possible.
- geomark 9y ago
  I live in Thailand and buying from US online merchants is usually a nonstarter because of shipping costs which are often much more than the price of the item itself. When I buy something from Aliexpress it is usually free shipping, or something reasonable for heavier items. There is no Amazon here but there are a couple local versions, Lazada being one. They usually have shorter delivery times but cost more than Aliexpress, though not always. US online merchants aren't even in the ballpark.
  - voltagex_ 9y ago
    How long does it take for packages to get to you? In Australia I had a run of less than two weeks but it's been back up to a month recently.
    - geomark 9y ago
      It varies a lot. Sometimes 2 weeks, more often 3 to 4. Currently a number of items seem overdue at more than 5 weeks.
  - curun1r 9y ago
    I ordered from Amazon while I was in Thailand and it actually worked pretty well. The shipping wasn't cheap, but it wasn't prohibitive. The most expensive part was the import duties charged by Thai customs. It still ended up being cheaper than if I'd bought the items locally. Though I was on an island in the south, so that might not have been the case in Bangkok. Still...it's definitely not a non-starter. And with the exception of shipping updates which were non-existent once Thai post got their hands on the package, everything worked surprisingly well. All told, it took 7 days to arrive, shipping was ~$50 and customs was ~$65 on a ~$300 order that would have cost over $500 locally where the selection would've meant getting something that wasn't exactly what I wanted.

a1371 9y ago

That is typical for the order times, it takes weeks. Now that it is the singles day, it would take even longer. An easy solution is to look for the ones with ePacket shipping. It is tracked and you'd normally expect it in two weeks. Some give it for free, some charge about a dollar for it.

tunetine 9y ago

If you're in the U.S. just wait a few more years because this is what Amazon models their Prime day after.

PhasmaFelis 9y ago

> I've had situations where items didn't arrive until weeks later and I had already forgotten that I'd bought anything. I love that! It's like getting a present from myself. (Depending on how important the item was, of course...)

cjsuk 9y ago
I do this with Chinese electronic modules. I order a bunch of interesting things and get mailbombed about a month later. $10 spent is hours of fun! Granted most of it is crap but it’s fun finding that out and tutting and shaking my head in disgust.

geomark 9y ago

I added a few dollars to the frenzy. Been adding items to my Aliexpress shopping cart for the last week. Mostly small electronics hobbyist items and Arduino compatible boards and sensor modules. Pulled the trigger after the 11.11 sale opened up.

voltagex_ 9y ago
Just out of interest, can you check a couple of prices on Dealextreme, Gearbest and Banggood to see if they're comparable?
- geomark 9y ago
  Among the items I ordered today: HC-06: Dealextreme $5.50, Banggood $5.99, Gearbest $6.57, Aliexpress $2.58 Arduino Nano v3.0: Dealextreme $3.46, Banggood $2.77, Gearbest $4.27, Aliexpress $1.66
  - voltagex_ 9y ago
    Wow! I haven't seen that kind of differential for a while. I wonder if it's just because of 11.11
    - geomark 9y ago
      I made a mental note of some of the prices before the 11.11 discount kicked in. The discounts were around 10%, sometimes less. So the Aliexpress regular prices were already way lower. The thing is, on Aliexpress there are many, many sellers of each of those items and there is often a significant price difference among them. If that is due to quality or delivery times I have not figured it out yet. So I usually buy from the cheapest who has a fair number of sales and few if any complaints in the reviews.
  - duckwheat 9y ago
    Man, can you share some more of your shopping list for those of us with similar interests?

Hurtak 9y ago

Are the sales numbers inflation adjusted?

throwaway613834 9y ago

> I've had situations where items didn't arrive until weeks later and I had already forgotten that I'd bought anything. This might be a good litmus test for whether you actually need what you're buying :-)

shalmanese 9y ago

It's still a hugely significant number. $18B is $13.20USD for every man, woman and child in China. Considering China's GDP is $8000USD, that's basically 60% of a single day's earnings for every person in China being spent at just one company in 12 hours. It would be the same as everyone in the US spending $100 on the same day or $32B in a single day (which is almost half of US online spending for a year).

adventured 9y ago
US consumers spend over $32 billion every day of the year. The average American adult spends $57,000 per year as of 2016. The consumer economy in the US is around $13 trillion. http://www.businessinsider.com/13-trillion-us-consumer-getting-bigger-2016-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/13-trillion-us-consumer-getti... China's GDP is $11.x trillion for 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...
- shalmanese 9y ago
  That's a bit of a misleading stat since most consumer spending is on stuff like housing/transportation/food/utilities.
  - adventured 9y ago
    That's not misleading at all. That's how consumer spending is measured. How would you go about explaining that water, electricity and food are not consumption goods, but an iPad is?
    - OJFord 9y ago
      It's misleading here because it has nothing really to do with Alibaba or Amazon; of course there are differences in cost of living in the USA and China, the interesting figure here is online spending, or luxury spending, etc.
    - pwinnski 9y ago

seanmcdirmid 9y ago

Singles day is way too close to Black Friday, I don’t see room for both shopping frenzies in November. Besides, most cultures aren’t into numerology as much as Chinese are (they don’t think 11/11 is that interesting), so the gimmick doesn’t really translate well outside of china.

abc03 9y ago

And your prediction will certainly be true because Chinese are usually not very honest and like to brag that they have just set another new record (I'm married to a Chinese and she says the same).