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Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming
- lobut 9y agoGreat, now I'm scared. What can I do? Shall I learn mandarin and go to China too?
- dman 9y agoYes.
- zxcmx 9y agoWell by political fiat we know the yuan can't go down! We can trust it because we can see how investors act :) Owait it seems like everyone who has the option wants to convert it into rents in "western liberal democracies". Sure, I guess...
- jff 9y agoGiven that the current practice for anyone with money in China is to get that money out of China and converted to foreign currency as quickly as possible... I'd counsel against it.
- xenihn 9y agoLearn Mandarin and go to / stay on the west coast, where the majority of that extracted Chinese money is going
- jff 9y agoBetter get a real estate license while you're at it, since that's where the extracted money ends up.
- petraeus 9y agoHes not saying TAKE his money to china, hes GOING to china and hoping to MAKE money
- justboxing 9y agoDon't know anything about Jim Rogers' creds / authority in this matter. How much should be we concerned / alarmed at these statements? > Rogers: It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something. and > Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime. Most of my little 'nest egg' is in Total Market Index ETFs (ex: SPY, QQQ ). Should I take action, or will that be foolish / premature optimization?
- kartD 9y agoTypical advice is if you're older, say within 10 years of retirement push towards treasury bonds, commodities etc. (ultra safe investments). If you're young, you can try to time it, but even if you screw-up just hold through the crash and it'll recover in a couple of years. Do some more research, you don't want to put stock in random internet comments... including mine!
- uptown 9y ago>you don't want to put stock in random internet comments... including mine Anybody got the ticker for the Internet Comments ETF?
- thesehands 9y agohttp://www.alpsfunds.com/overview/buz http://www.alpsfunds.com/overview/buz
- bbatha 9y agoGiven that the fed is about to start unwinding QE and selling off its massive store of bonds, it may be prudent to wait a year or two before shifting your assets into bonds.
- mcknz 9y agoYes, most importantly, do your own research. There are varying opinions as to the relevance/worth of commodities: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323681904578643822549165446 https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323681904578643...
- autogn0me 9y agoJim has been saying this for past 6-8 years. He will eventually be right.
- tnuc 9y agoHe may die first.
- toss1 9y ago"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes (attrib)
- jokoon 9y agoA broken clock is right twice a day
- tomsthumb 9y agoOne going backwards is right four times. I'm not totally sure this extends your analogy appropriately, but it's an entertaining thought.
- SAI_Peregrinus 9y agoUnless it's a 24-hour clock, then it's only once. Or the break isn't just a stoppage but simply a mis-setting. Or running fast or slow, at which point it will be right with some period other than twice/day. (The original phrase specifies a stopped clock, which eliminates the second two exceptions).
- ckluis 9y agoHow many jobs are we replacing with software annually? It will happen sooner or later.
- joobus 9y agoFirst jobs were replaced by simple tools, then by livestock, then by machines. What makes software any different from any other advancements made throughout history?
- dragonwriter 9y agoAll of the earlier advances require human maintenance that scale with the scope of deployment. The whole reason software is a hot area of investment is that it's support requirements don't scale that way, which means is good for the capitalist from a cost perspective, but bad for the wage-labor dependent class.
- defined 9y agoIt's the only advancement where making a million copies of an item takes a few minutes and no raw material. Try that with tools, livestock and machines. Or anything physical.
- convolvatron 9y agobut before that you have to go through several iterations of failure with a bunch of costly entitled developers before you get something which sort of approximates what you wanted and is so internally broken its almost impossible to extend not really ragging on the developers, but its not a cheap or risk free process. and if you aren't actively investing in maintenance it will die. the costs are all just per-type not so much per-instance
- defined 9y ago> but before that you have to go through several iterations of failure with a bunch of costly entitled developers before you get something which sort of approximates what you wanted and is so internally broken its almost impossible to extend This is too often true, subject to the following observations: - Project failure is almost always a management failure (no citations needed, really), because: - The thing to be built is poorly conceived and explained by the leadership/stakeholders, who are seldom the devs - The delivery schedule is wildly optimistic or infeasible, because unrealistic promises were made to customers or investors - The operational parameters of the system (peak users, load, transactions, data size, availability, etc) are overestimated by the leadership by a couple of orders of magnitude and pushback tends to be career-limiting - When the leadership eventually realizes the failure of its vision, it "pivots", and keeps pivoting at the speed of a turbine, "reframing" the so-called vision. - The "costly, entitled" developers often come from some body shop which pays them $25/hour and charges $75 (illustrative values only) - Costly, unentitled, competent developers probably ran for the hills or were rejected because they weren't "with the program" - they said something realistic in the interview. - The process is not cheap or easy or risk free, yet many companies hire and pay as if it is. - The mere act of getting cohesive requirements out of people is one of the hardest parts of software, and one of the largest reasons for failure. - The rest isn't easy, either, unless it's a conceptual copy of some vanilla CRUD system that does nothing novel or "web scale" (whatever that is). OTOH, I read some devs stating that software development is just bolting legos together, what's the problem? If you are referring to these devs, I see your point, but they and their ilk are the creations of corporates and startups who pushed the view that devs are commodity items - resources - who aren't really skilled and can be churned out of bootcamps and will be good enough to meet the deadlines. Now I am not criticizing bootcamps or the people who make it through them. There are many smart people who have no formal CS background who could make good devs, given time and experience. There are even more people who should not be allowed near a computer, sadly, who IMO are more commonly encountered. I am criticizing the social forces that put money above useful education, profit above knowledge, ideology above science and engineering, the short term against the entire future.
- mullen 9y agoA fringe nobody screaming the world is going to collapse for the last 30 years. The only thing this guy can predict is that if he yells and screams the sky is falling loud enough, his next book will do well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
- jeffdavis 9y ago"admired about you as an investor is that you don’t talk about what should be" Kind of a cynical view. Investors can change the future, so the idea that they are passive players is disappointing. In fact, if they are on the sidelines, what purpose do they serve?
- petulla 9y ago2011: 100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers 2012: Jim Rogers: It’s Going To Get Really “Bad After The Next Election” 2013: Jim Rogers Warns: “You Better Run for the Hills!” 2014: JIM ROGERS – Sell Everything & Run For Your Lives 2015: Jim Rogers: “We’re Overdue” for a Stock Market Crash 2016: $68 TRILLION “BIBLICAL CRASH” Dead Ahead? Jim Rogers Issues a DIRE WARNING 2017: THE BOTTOM LINE: Legendary investor Jim Rogers expects the worst crash in our lifetime https://www.fool.com.au/2017/06/14/why-you-should-totally-ignore-jim-rogers-worst-crash-in-our-lifetime-call/ https://www.fool.com.au/2017/06/14/why-you-should-totally-ig...
- grzm 9y agoHe's nothing if not consistent.
- psychometry 9y agoSo what's he shorting? Everything?
- dws 9y agoEventually, in the stopped-clock sense, if he lives long enough he might be right.
- melling 9y ago“Being Right but Being Early Simply Means That You Are Wrong”
- qxzw 9y agoBoy who cried 'wolf'...
- pizza 9y agoP(economy(t+1) > economy(t)) ~ 1 and ∫economy(t) dt | 0..t + E[economy(t+1)] < 0 are not at all mutually exclusive. The market is not a normal distribution of i.i.d. samples or anything similarly wrangleable absence of evidence (not proven correct yet) < evidence of absence (if/whenever the hypothesis is observed). This just shows that for 6 years he was not yet right, not that he's a 'broken clock', implying he isn't adapting to evidence (, which, I don't know and may be true -- but I can't say either way). He can't claim anything beyond what's been observed, but neither can we claim the prediction (or any) not being yet observed as suggesting it'll never happen, regardless of how clickbait-y it can be packaged and whatever the intentions are behind that decision..
- outsidetheparty 9y agoThe entirety of his supporting evidence: > We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one. Well I'm certainly convinced!
- WalterSear 9y agoIt's why I won't fly Qantas Airways.
- santoshalper 9y agoHe would be a lot more credible if he could explain what will cause a crash. Basically, he is just betting on a crash every year for whatever reason. Doubtlessly, he is selling something.
- AnimalMuppet 9y agoHe kind of did. He expects the market to become a bubble. Bubbles always crash. What is a bubble? Here's my definition: A bubble is an asset going up because it's been going up. It works like this: Something (the stock market, say) looks good because of fundamentals: because earnings are up, or because interest rates are down, or whatever. People take note: Hey, the stock market looks good. So people buy stocks, so stocks go up. Then more people take note: Hey, the stock market's going up. So more people buy stocks, because they want to own stuff that's going up. So stocks go up more. So more people buy stocks. That's the start of a bubble. But it doesn't get truly dangerous until people are buying stocks with borrowed money. Then a drop means that people sell in a panic, because they can't take a loss, so the price drops more, so more people sell in a panic, and so on. And the people that lose money, lost (at least in part) borrowed money, which means that it can ruin not just the borrower, but also the lender. Now: Are stocks currently in this territory? My impression is no, not yet, but I don't know for sure. Is there a good measure of how much borrowed money is invested in the stock market?
- Lost_BiomedE 9y ago"But it doesn't get truly dangerous until people are buying stocks with borrowed money. " Currently, the borrowed money is nearly free money via low interest rates. A lot of games are being played to juice out every cent that can be made on being able to get cheap money. When the value of assets used to play these games are ignored vs. the diminishing profit. It becomes musical chairs. I doubt we get your everyday Joe betting on margin like the dotcom bubble, but we have the same effect, just different users.
- clamprecht 9y agoIsn't his statement a tautology?
- SoMisanthrope 9y agoold news
- tryingagainbro 9y agoI bet everything thing I have that Jim Rogers will be right--one day. He doesn't know it either when
- pascalxus 9y agoWell, the shiller CAPE 10 year averge is at 30 right now, which is as high as it was in 1929 right before the great depression. But, If you look at the CAPE graph for the last 30 years, the average seems a bit higher than normal. I wonder if we're heading for a new normal where the CAPE averages higher due long term changes in allocation of capital, and long term reduced productivity gains. all the technical analysis says the next 10 years won't be pretty but that doesn't mean it's going to be a steep drop, we could just be going sideways for a long time.
- crdoconnor 9y ago>long term reduced productivity gains the robots aren't taking over then?
- jasonmaydie 9y agoThe market has been going up at record pace. It's going to come down at some point, of course none of this is benefiting us average Joe's
- ringaroundthetx 9y agoEveryone buying put options, expecting doom and gloom, is contributing to keeping the markets high. When you buy a put, the market maker sells a put and stays delta neutral by buying shares (or more generally, goes long the underlying asset). When everyone buys puts, everyone is making shares get bought. The puts expire worthless and no affect was done to the market except keeping it bullish. edit: I got that wrong, way wrong. Is there any way that hedging is having the effect of buoying the market?
- misja111 9y agoThat's only half the story. To stay completely delta and gamma neutral, the market maker typically buys not just the share but additionally shorts a call with the same strike as the put. When he shorts the call it means that someone else buys it. Probably another market maker, who might want to hedge as well, this time by selling the share and buying a put, etc..
- lukewink 9y agoIf a market maker sells a put and wants to stay delta neutral, they would need to sell shares -- not buy. Selling a put is a long position, not a short.
- petraeus 9y agoThe market will remain irrational longer than he will remain solvent (if in fact he is even playing the contrarian game)
- yuhong 9y agoMy favorite right now is the ad bubble: https://twitter.com/BrendanEich/status/912750677331283968 https://twitter.com/BrendanEich/status/912750677331283968