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What the long-term effects will be: China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. Interesting and useful

What the long-term effects will be: China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. Interesting and useful things are made when people able share and consume information. e.g. Jack Ma's US visit exposed him to Yahoo. Ma Huateng was clearly inspired by his exposure to ICQ. The list goes on. The same thing happens in the West but it happens a lot more often since there are a lot more opportunities to share ideas with much fewer restrictions. The end result is that China's fate as being relegated to being the world's giant copy machine is sealed unless things revert The people who will get ahead in China in the future are the ones who are somehow able to live outside of China to experience new ideas. This is already true, but its importance will grow as China's censorship grows. The more China closes up, the less Western companies have to fear about future tech dominance or crazy innovation from China in the long run To be fair, things may even out since Western governments seem to be doing all they can to copy China's censorship and gov control. SOPA, PIPA, SESTA, and the Digital Economy Bill come to mind. I'm sure others can add more to the list.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
zitterbewegung 9y ago
I think the blocking of foreign corporations also serves as a way to eliminate competition for services that are created inside the country. Obviously they would be able to pressure the in country services to do whatever they want.
- chaostheory 9y ago
  You're right. There's definitely protectionism, but imo moves like limiting VPN's go beyond that.
  - chrischen 9y ago
    A lot of people use VPNs to access foreign services. It's quite popular to use Instagram in China, even though it's blocked.
micaksica 9y ago
> The people who will get ahead in China in the future are the ones who are somehow able to live outside of China to experience new ideas. So in other words, the ruling class continues to rule, as they will be the only ones with the sanctioned political freedoms to study abroad, etc. > China's fate as being relegated to being the world's giant copy machine is sealed unless things revert China being the world's giant copy machine has worked very well for those in power in China. Why not sustain that as long as possible? What other country has the stability and resources to replicate that? Most countries with extremely cheap labor don't have the supply chain.
- princekolt 9y ago
  > China being the world's giant copy machine has worked very well for those in power in China. Yes, but that's not OPs point, I think. What I think OP means is that the west doesn't have to worry (much) about China becoming the world's main innovation spot, because with censorship, the best they can do is copy. In a weird way, this is good for the western world.
  - FabHK 9y ago
    I think that's too optimistic. It seems to me that China manages to control the vast majority of the population. If you have technical expertise and perseverance, you can still circumvent the GFW (great firewall), install WhatsApp, etc., and I think you will continue to be able to - but most people in China don't. (It's a bit like pirating music and movies in the west - you can still do it, but many people now use the legal options (iTunes, Netflix, ...), because it's just not worth the hassle.) But the CCP doesn't care about a small elite knowing things. OP contends that suppressing political discontent and censoring & controlling the communication of the vast majority of people will necessarily impede innovation and economic growth. That's not obvious to me at all, unfortunately.
  - AmIFirstToThink 9y ago
    The best they do is manufacture. The kids growing now in West have lost ability to tinker. If you are into electronics and manufacturing, China is like playground to experiment. In the west, we are losing rights to fix the gadgets we own.
chrischen 9y ago
They're actually blocking to increase innovation and future growth... of domestic products. Not being subject to a foreign chat app monopoly (although Whatsapp wasn't even close to that) is what they're trying to avoid.
627467 9y ago
This is not a new situation. I grew up in a more liberal part of China and always thought their political situation was their bottleneck for economic, cultural and human development. The state of the world right now shows how I was wrong. And as you mentioned, tightening of control by different governments around the world seems to indicate that we have found a common trend and its not the liberal one...
- pishpash 9y ago
  There will be a bottleneck. It took hundreds of years of sea ban for Ming China to fall behind in the Age of Sail; it might take a few decades for a closed society to euthanize itself in a digital age built on free exchange and open discourse.
  - 627467 9y ago
    But thats not the direction communist china has been taking. It has been opening more and more since the 70s
    - chaostheory 9y ago
      Yes, it’s been that way until now. That was my point.
AndrewKemendo 9y ago
Completely agree that they will further cement their power, but it won't be at the cost of innovation and growth IMO. China's access to leading technologies and technologists is absolutely unparalleled. The amount of Chinese students that are publishing some of the leading CS and ML research from the best universities and corporations worldwide is staggering when compared to all other nations. China isn't 'Closing up' they are pushing people to use the services that they control and have insight into. Consider that Tencent, Baidu etc... all have major offices in SV, Seattle, LA etc. Remember the story from yesterday about the Chinese ADTech company giving $3M salaries? That's just growing. Unless the US, Canada, France, Israel etc... closes the visa program for Chinese workers Chinese companies will continue to be relevant and innovative - and they will likely grow faster with more tailored services because, China has the biggest capabilities to mine user data - more than any other nation by far.
- pangfandang 9y ago
  > The amount of Chinese students that are publishing... That's the thing. These are mostly overseas Chinese working for US/European companies who have no desire to return to China. Talk to any of them, and they're always concerned about the status of their visa and are ecstatic when they become a citizen of a democracy. > China isn't 'Closing up' they are pushing people to use the services Tencent and Baidu are used by tiny tiny tiny portions of westerners > Unless the US, Canada, France, Israel etc... closes the visa program There's no need, these Chinese students are staying and not returning to China. By the way, since you think China is doing such a good job of education: remember that Rural households have a per capita income of only 9,892 yuan – about $4 dollars a day. and there's 680 million of these rural households still. "Surveys by Rozelle's team have found that more than half of eighth graders in poor rural areas in China have IQs below 90, leaving them struggling to keep up with the fast-paced official curriculum" http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/one-three-chinese-children-faces-education-apocalypse-ambitious-experiment-hopes-save http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/one-three-chinese-chi...
  - AndrewKemendo 9y ago
    Tencent and Baidu are used by tiny tiny tiny portions of westerners That doesn't matter - they are focused on China and Asia. To think that they can't innovate inside the borders and with a significant number of people inside other companies and abroad is just putting blinders on. since you think China is doing such a good job of education Whoa, never said that. Mainland domestic policies for 1.7B (non official number) people are mediocre at best.
eyeareque 9y ago
I used to think this way too until I went to china. The current batch of US apps are also copies of earlier apps. Remember chatting on bbses? IRC, ICQ, etc? China doesn’t need western internet companies, they have a quarter of the world’s population. Can you blame them for wanting to promote home grown apps to build wealth within their country? Also, they like control, why would you let an foreigner end to end encryption app into your country? I don’t agree with their control but it’s not my country. I’m surprised iMessage worked for me while I was there. I wonder what consessions Apple had to give for that?
- vim_wannabe 9y ago
  The elite still probably likes to use iDevices themselves. Once they get some other luxury brands going its time for the concessions.
  - eyeareque 9y ago
    Could be yeah. But it really makes me wonder. I can’t see china allowing a messaging platform in their country that doesn’t have a way to monitor everything. Maybe the fact that iPhones are all made in china allow them, for the time being.
- jzl 9y ago
  I’m surprised iMessage worked for me while I was there. I wonder what consessions Apple had to give for that? From the article: 'Other services provided by American technology companies are available in mainland China. The country tolerates Microsoft’s Skype service for phone calls, which does not provide end-to-end encryption and as a result is easier for governments to monitor. Beijing also allows Apple’s FaceTime service, which has end-to-end encryption but does not have a WhatsApp-like feature allowing users to exchange secret codes — letting WhatsApp users combat what are known as “man in the middle” attacks.'
  - FabHK 9y ago
    Sorry, but is there any evidence that iMessage or FaceTime has been MITMed? In China or elsewhere? (I wonder whether it's tolerated because of Apple's small market share...)
bitcuration 9y ago
China does have one hope, the need of censor will drive its technology innovation and even takes the bulk of its economy GDP. As you hinted China's leading censorship will inspire the world how much human can revert the process of internet, un-internet is what China will make its name for.
- KGIII 9y ago
  Tithe GFW has been around since 1998. I'm not sure it's going to eat the bulk of their GDP and it doesn't appear to have stopped them from innovating. It's a horrible idea, don't get me wrong, it is just that it doesn't look like it is going to be the end of them.
Certhas 9y ago
Alternative: Innovation happens within the context of Chinas censorship and political regime. Blocking of entrenched western competitors allows home grown solutions to spring up, and local technological know how to develop faster. Capitalism and innovation turn out to work within the context of an illiberal society just fine. Especially as China avoids the mistake of closing itself off to the rest of the world, but stays integrated in the markets, as well as the academic exchanges. The Chinese government doesn't stop high tech investment, but only blocks a few select companies that have products that are, at their core, easy to replicate (WhatsApp, Facebook, to a lesser degree Google) at a sufficient level of quality. Rather than free markets pushing towards a more liberal politics, the Chinese government develops means to make the market optimize for political obedience [1]. Most people individually will consider themselves "free enough", and not care about politics as long as the country is well managed. Nothing stops you from starting to research or trying to build self-driving cars in China [2]. China will continue to manage to hire western talent for its firms [3] until whatever skill gap still exists is filled. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/01/goldman-says-china-has-talent-data-and-infrastructure-to-embrace-ai.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/01/goldman-says-china-has-talen... [3] https://qz.com/1062035/half-of-the-top-10-employers-of-ai-talent-in-china-are-american/ https://qz.com/1062035/half-of-the-top-10-employers-of-ai-ta...
- starchand 9y ago
  100% this. And occasionally these apps out innervate their western counterparts. WeChat is better than WhatsApp, Facebook.
  - cdelsolar 9y ago
    out innervate? nice astroturfing
  - drraid0 9y ago
    How is it better than whatsapp?
emiliobumachar 9y ago
On the other hand, the West seems to take Copywright and Patents much more seriously, which also dampens creativity a lot. (The chilling effects from software patents alone seem to be very large) I wonder how the effects compare.
alexasmyths 9y ago
"their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth" Partly. The exception is that the Chinese are pretty good at this stuff, and that 'blocking foreign companies' simply let's local companies dominate. 'SnapChat' and 'What's App' are no innovation. For the most part. They are mostly just 'chat apps'. That's it. Ok, Snapchat does a 'really good job' at the 'visual storytelling part'. But China does not need that cutting-edge level of social interaction for a few years until someone copies it well. They'll do fine. China is actually big enough - and their techies are talented/aggressive enough - that they can get away with a lot of these shenanigans. You obviously have a good point though.
- FabHK 9y ago
  > 'blocking foreign companies' simply let's local companies dominate. Yes - in particular, consider that China has more people than North America and Europe together, so a Chinese "domestic" firm has quite a market.
  - seppin 9y ago
    > Yes - in particular, consider that China has more people than North America and Europe together, so a Chinese "domestic" firm has quite a market. India has +1 billion too but no one to sell to
flexie 9y ago
I think censorship is only part of the reason. Protectionism and national security probably plays a role aswell. Look at the list of websites they block: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Websites_blocked_in_mainland_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Websites_blocked_in_mainland... Google, facebook, instagram, twitter etc. Those are one-way streets that provide next to no jobs, little tech transfer and no tax revenue to the countries they do business in, but tend to outcompete the local rivals if left to it, and are proven to provide a convenient surveillance platform for American intelligence. It's surprising that any country would allow that to continue unchecked. The Chinese solution is certainly not great but I doubt the US would allow Chinese companies to keep a daily log on the activities of most US citizens and businesses. Or to replace entire industries like advertising without providing jobs or taxes in return.
- KGIII 9y ago
  I don't know that the United States has any legal mechanism to prevent an online Chinese company from holding the top position and doing what American-native companies do with the data. At least I can't think of any such mechanism? Perhaps someone here is a legal scholar?
  - RobertoG 9y ago
    If the last years have show us anything it is that the USA government (and others) can create the legality that they think more convenient. For instance, you can invent a new category in order to avoid detaining people like criminals or war enemies if none of the laws applying to those are convenient.
    - KGIII 9y ago
      True, and I wouldn't put it past them, but I know of no current legal mechanism for that. Emphasis on legal, of course. It does make me wonder what they'd use for justification - prior to the current administration. The current administration would just use nationalism and protectionism, I'd think. I'm not sure how the previous administration would have framed it in order to make it politically feasible.
princetontiger 9y ago
China hasn't invented anything. Why would this change today? I'm not sure why you're surprised. For a billion people, I think the WSJ says there is maybe 1 or 2 patents assigned to the country.
- nylonstrung 9y ago
  What about paper, bitch?
- sctb 9y ago
  Since you continue to violate the guidelines with inflammatory nationalistic rants, we've banned the account.
lumberjack 9y ago
Sorry, I have to disagree. How do you suppose more innovation would have happened if instead of China, blocking US tech, they let them have the whole market from the get go and instead of WeChat there would be Whatsapp and instead of Baidu, there would be Google? How is that more innovation? You can just look at Europe. I'm not advocating any policies or supporting anyone. I am just disputing the claim that free markets maximise innovation in this particular instance.
- wybiral 9y ago
  > instead of WeChat there would be Whatsapp and > instead of Baidu, there would be Google I think that's the kind of thing that the parent poster meant with this phrase: > The end result is that China's fate as being > relegated to being the world's giant copy machine
- chaostheory 9y ago
  > How do you suppose more innovation would have happened if instead of China, blocking US tech, they let them have the whole market from the get go and instead of WeChat there would be Whatsapp and instead of Baidu, there would be Google? 1. Competition breeds innovation. Monopolies and the like encourage stagnation. 2. How do you know Google would win in China if China didn't block them? Unlike Europe, China is extremely nationalistic. Even if the home brand was slightly worse, it would still probably win the majority of the market. Of course, the only thing stronger than Chinese nationalism is Chinese pessimism so we'll never know.
  - capisce 9y ago
    Sometimes trade protectionism is good for an economy. In fact it's the strategy all the somewhat successful Asian nations (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China) used to get ahead, whereas the countries who followed the neoliberalist model of the west too closely (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, etc) lagged behind. Suggest reading 'How Asia Works' by Joe Studwell.
iliketosleep 9y ago
This situation is more nuanced that you might think. They are not preventing everybody from gaining access to outside ideas. In fact, they are actually encouraging their top students to spend time at elite universities abroad; they are aggressively pushing for more "partnerships" with top Western universities. Additionally, they have special Internet lines for approved entities, giving unrestricted access. In theory, selectively giving access to information this way is the best of both worlds; protecting the masses from "dangerous" foreign ideas that might challenge the Party's authority, whilst still gaining full advantage of the west's technical progress. In fact, what they've taken from the West has enabled their surveillance state. Western governments have being underestimating China for years, at their own peril. Sadly, China has not underestimated the West's thirst for money, and has used this to their own advantage.
natural219 9y ago
I've been reading Westerners talk about how China is doomed for 10 years now. Every "mean" or disagreeable thing they do seemingly spells doom for their regime, but they keep getting bigger and more powerful. Maybe I should read less English-language media on the subject.
eurticket 9y ago
> China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. The same thing happens in the U.S on another level. This isn't necessarily a case the choking of the free flow of information and censorship, but I think we've all seen a steady increase in the future being delayed for the now. Around a month ago, there was an question on HN discussing train automation and why it isn't already done as it seems much easier to automate than other forms of transportation. A first-hand account commented that it was because unions have been fighting to block it to keep their jobs; stalling innovation and future growth.
Dolores12 9y ago
>China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. Talking about innovations, there are few areas where China is ahead of the whole world - like AliPay and WeChat payment systems. I am wondering how you gonna explain China's success when its GDP surpass United States one.
IncRnd 9y ago
> The people who will get ahead in China in the future are the ones who are somehow able to live outside of China to experience new ideas. There are more people in China than in the United States, Europe, and Russia combined. China already manufactures your clothes, chips, computers, phones, and missile chips. I don't think it's correct, given the world's dependence on China, to say China is somehow behind the times (wrt computer innovation).
- davemp 9y ago
  manufacturing =/= innovation
  - IncRnd 9y ago
    Who do you think writes all the software for those manufacturing facilities? Yahoo? Who has launched satellites into orbit to test quantum communications? Uber? Don't get caught up in association fallacies about who is able to innovate. A quarter of the world lives in China.
  - bigbugbag 9y ago
    Please elaborate on this, as history tells a different story.
- tim333 9y ago
  I had to Google the missile thing. Bit of a shocker: "Last year, the U.S. Navy bought 59,000 microchips for use in everything from missiles to transponders and all of them turned out to be counterfeits from China." (http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-chinese-microchips-weapons-could-have-been-shut-off-2011-6?IR=T http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-chinese-microchips-weapo...)
  - IncRnd 9y ago
    It's really a touchy situation, no matter the angle you look at it.
hhw 9y ago
China has a long and proud tradition as being at the forefront of civilization, and they see the last 100+ years or so just as a temporary setback. The current ruling class may not see the need to share with the outside world. This may sadly result in the decline of China's competitiveness on the world stage, but those in the ruling class may be more concerned with consolidating their power within the country. This is not a new problem for the Chinese; it's just repeating the cycle of every dynasty that came before. On a separate note, Whatsapp has been copying WeChat's features rather than the other way around for years. So perhaps China thinks they can innovate enough on their own to match or outpace the outside world. While I don't think that's impossible, I don't think they've taken into account how much the cultural revolution wiped out a lot of culture and collective wisdom built up over the centuries, and that will put them at much more of a disadvantage than they realize.
- teknologist 9y ago
  WeChat's "features"? Come on people, these chat apps are pretty basic I use both WeChat and WhatsApp extensively
  - paradite 9y ago
    Wechat = WhatsApp + Facebook + PayPal Unless you mean Facebook and PayPal are nothing, you are wrong.
  - newen 9y ago
    Wechat had audio messages way before whatsapp. And the animated emojis way before facebook. Both used to be the shit when I was using wechat a couple of years ago. Also you can use wechat to as essentially a credit card. It's like a blob app that has everything in it.
fspeech 9y ago
Just for context, Chinese made 122 millon overseas trips last year https://www.travelchinaguide.com/tourism/2016statistics/outbound.htm https://www.travelchinaguide.com/tourism/2016statistics/outb... The censorship of social media is mainly to prevent collective action: "The study showed that, contrary to western conventional wisdom, Chinese social media is as raucous and chaotic as it is everywhere else, so the Daily Mail’s idea of a country full of timid, faceless people with only banal opinions is baloney. The study also revealed, though, that these outlets are ruthlessly but astutely censored: what gets taken down, apart from the usual suspects such as Falun Gong, pornography, democracy etc, are any posts that could conceivably stimulate collective action, even when the posts are favourable towards the government. You can say more or less what you like in China, in other words, as long as nothing you say might have the effect of getting people out on to the streets." https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/22/chinese-internet-censorship-uses-distraction https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/22/chines...
- seppin 9y ago
  doesn't sound like a ticketing time bomb at all..
smegel 9y ago
> What the long-term effects will be: China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. Yeah blocking a foreign competitor is going to be terrible for innovative Chinese startups.
Fluid_Mechanics 9y ago
I disagree - I think having some control over the self-destructive urges of a population during times of economic trouble is a positive thing. Several democracies with cancerous social media networks are teetering on the brink of right-wing proto-fascist parties as a result of the recent recession and perceived immigration issues. The mob needs to be controlled for progress to be protected.
- phyller 9y ago
  This would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic. You realize this is exactly what every evil dictator in history thought? They didn't wake up one morning and decide to be evil, they were trying to do what they thought was right. In their minds they were good, they were actually trying to make the world a better place, according to their world view. They had great plans, and the foolish mob didn't know what was best for them. And one thing led to another. So what if the right-wing people in charge had the same ideas as you? Several democracies with cancerous social media networks have been teetering on the brink of left-wing national socialism, the mob needs to be controlled. What we dislike about fascists and their ilk is not the right-wing or left-wing part, it is how they deal with those they disagree with. Stalin was responsible for more deaths than Hitler, Mao for more than Stalin, neither of them right wing. If you were able to enforce what you suggest, you would be worse than those you oppose. But you are right about democracies devolving in certain times of stress. How about this statement instead? "The mob needs to be inspired by the self-sacrificial service of good leaders for progress to be made"
- pishpash 9y ago
  Or, there could be some genuine redistribution so the mobs wouldn't have to be suppressed by the hording, greedy bourgeoisie.
- IncRnd 9y ago
  You really should read about fascism. You're the fascist, trying to control people, because you think you know what's best for them.
afpx 9y ago
Are there historical examples of states imposing social control while also succeeding technologically? I can only think of the counter examples.
sytelus 9y ago
I don't think there is virtually any impact on innovations in China because of western social media censorships. China is on track to match US in AI research paper output, for example. Same goes for other fields in medicine and manufacturing. Also, you have to look at Chinese view point to understand why there is no revolt in China around blocking Google or Facebook. The argument that government has successfully made is that China is not ready for democracy, the democracy usually means incompetent politicians coming to power because of their ability to fool people and that lot of developing countries which adopted democracy have managed to make only a tiny fraction of progress that China has made (for example, compare India with China in metrics like GDP, research output or army).
- throwaway1984_ 9y ago
  High-output of research papers from China is not surprising at all: considering they pay hundreds of thousands of dollars per paper published in a prestigious journal[1]. [1]: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/chinese-scholars-win-ps127000-for-papers-in-top-journals https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/chinese-scholars-w...
  - newen 9y ago
    It's not too different from the publish or perish culture in US academia, only with a solid cash reward for publishing in peer reviewed journals. I mean professors here are filtered for number of articles here too. Considering the amount of funding that goes to research groups in some universites with the same amount of quality research output as research groups in smaller universities with drastically lower funding, I don't even think it's economically wasteful.
alexasmyths 9y ago
side note: People decry Trump for his words on 'starting a trade war' with China. I am no fan of Trump or Bannon - but on this they are right: we are already in a trade war. Blocking companies from participating arbitrarily, making it 'very difficult' for others, currency manipulation, capital controls, outright theft of IP. This, in any other situation is a trade war. Imagine the EU just says 'no Google in Europe'. That's crazy. It's a trade war. Because back in the 1980's, the world basically let China do as they please because they were 'rebuilding' (think Japan or Korea after their wars) - we sort of got used to it. But if China is going to play this game (hey, it's their right), then there should be a response of some kind. Responding to 'trade intransigence' is not a 'trade war' - it's just tit for tat. Won't happen though - as big USA corps are so greedy to want a big massive slice of the magic unicorn dangled in front of the by the Chinese gov, they shut up and 'kow-tow' :). It's changing maybe a little bit though, what I'm saying is not new, it's just not spoken that much publicly. For some interesting insight see Charlie Rose w/Richard McGregor: https://charlierose.com/videos/30937 https://charlierose.com/videos/30937
AmIFirstToThink 9y ago
Why wouldn't the Chinese hear about the next best mouse trap if whatsapp is banned? Why wouldn't the manufacturer of next best mouse trap like to sell the product in China if whatsapp is banned? As far as Chinese government is concerned there is no downside to banning whatsapp. It's not like whatsapp has turned into substitute for Nature for scientific publication. Many capitalist companies like the controls of communist China. They find it easier to do business in. Does that make China more innovative for new businesses compared to open monitoring in the western world? Is Apple going to move manufacturing to USA because China banned whatsapp? hell, no. China gets to make an example out of whatsapp to make smaller players play by their rules, giving auditing powers and speech controls to Chinese government, or get locked out of 15% of world's emerging market population. Lesson to progressive liberals of western world, appreciate what you got here and work to protect it, instead of insulting western values at every opportunity.
panzer_wyrm 9y ago
WeChat is pretty innovative
rorykoehler 9y ago
Chinese have no problem sharing. If you've used wechat you'll know it's western tech that has fallen behind.
- vixen99 9y ago
  Wiki says (though who wrote it?) 'It (wechat) is widely known as one of the world's most innovative and versatile app, as well as China's "App For Everything", with numerous unique functions and platforms ranging from 'payment' to 'social media' to 'services' to 'shopping' and more, that are equivalent to multiple Google Play or App Store's apps, but merged into one. Is it that impressive vis a vis Western Tech?
  - rorykoehler 9y ago
    Yes. Look at the iPhone for example. All the tech existed before but not in one package. WeChat is the future. Even Facebook are scrambling to copy features now.
Iv 9y ago
The CCP congress is next month. They have always cracked down on censorship before it. Their 5-years plan for 2016-2020 is about transitioning from the basic industry to more advanced industry and services. They want more research, they want more IT. Chinese IT workers are very critical of the Great Firewall and depend on VPNs to do a lot of things. I think many are realizing that the Firewall is a handicap, but it is also undeniable that it is a very useful political tool. They will have to put that into the balance in front of their will to innovate. They are also moving toward global leadership. In ecology, in foreign relations, they are willing to take the leadership that US is leaving. After being largely dismissive of it, if enough international pressure builds up, they may realize that opening up will help them reach these goals. Sadly, thanks in no small part to Trump, they are probably realizing how dangerous it is to let people vote in a place where medias are not controlled, so my bet is that we will see either some more voting or some more openness in information exchange, but not both. > To be fair, things may even out since Western governments seem to be doing all they can to copy China's censorship and gov control. USA is jailing more of its citizens than China. Even in absolute numbers. USA kills more non-citizens abroad than China. In EU we tend to side with USA anyway because it is a democracy but the last president had less votes than his opponent and is a white supremacist. Understand that for most of the world, accepting USA as a good guy is already a hell of a compromise. Seeing China as acceptable is not more far-fetched.
- elefanten 9y ago
  If they actually open in response to some of the forces you name, great! More power to them. I, personally, think that would be their best move in terms of global competitiveness over the next 100 years. But it takes some major cynicism to actually consider the moral impact of USA vs China on a global stage comparable. They are much quieter about their international adventurism, but they have a decades long history of protecting and supporting bad actors. Whatever the failure of the USA, North Korea would not be a new breakout nuclear power threatening to become the most likely scenario for nuclear war without major backing and even encouragement from China. China also has multiple ongoing, top-down, programmed genocides happening in several territories, including cultural and institutional colonization of Hong Kong and Taiwan. And that's not even raising the question of who's political values are better, both morally and strategically, for the human race. I understand why cynicism with the US (and the whole West in general) is high... but let's keep things in perspective here.
maxwin 9y ago
This kind of policy definitely hinders China's long term innovation. But in this specific case, wechat is way ahead of what'sapp in terms of innovation and utility.
maxwin 9y ago
This kind of policy hinders China's innovation in the long term. But in this specific case, wechat is way ahead (years ahead I would say) of what's app in terms of innovation or utility.
lyrachord 9y ago
1, Chrome complains the newtimes link illegal. 2, Don't say what you don't know. The copy machine stating is the old fashion. Didn't you know china and typography thousands years ago? fine. there is a little thing. at jroller/qinxianscript, there is a antialias tec, no none knows the better one, even Nvidia and AMD. sigh, looking at your mouth pronounce trends, maybe you wanna say China maybe copy the benefit from the little place GBE colonization. Did you know the civil servants system of English copied from where? So from a man view, there should be developing and applying, should not be evil. Din't you know you live in a les miserables?
rdlecler1 9y ago
That is totally wrong. If you think that China lacks innovation then you clearly have never been there. China is one of the most dynamic capitalistic countries in the world and there is no shortage of innovation. Even if then they have 1/3rd the innovators as the US, they still have 40% more innovators than the U.S. Innovation will just happen within the context of Chinese political constraints. The real threat is not to innovators in China, but to the rest of the tech world who are locked out of the Chinese market because of assymetric market conditions.
- chaostheory 9y ago
  ok, I understand that this is an emotional subject (I can relate), so please re-read the comment that you're responding to. 1. It didn't say China lacks innovation. 2. It is not critical of China as a whole. It is critical of the ones making stupid, selfish laws in China out of fear, which imo will hurt growing innovation in China. 3. If there's no shortage of Chinese innovation, why is there so much fear of 'inferior' outside competition?
  - IncRnd 9y ago
    Yet, the comment does say China lacks innovation. > The end result is that China's fate as being relegated to being the world's giant copy machine is sealed unless things revert Why do you think that China has "fear of 'inferior' outside competition"?
    - chaostheory 9y ago
      No the comment says China WILL lose its current momentum for innovation. It’s a prediction of the future It’s pretty evident China fears outside competition when they block competitors from entering their market. They have no confidence in their home grown companies surviving contrary to hard evidence
      - IncRnd 9y ago
        You assume facts not in evidence and write as if your biases are evident as the truth. China has a history of blocking outside influence in order to control the populace, so fear of competition with apps may not be the motivation.
xbmcuser 9y ago
This is just a temporary ban saudia just allowed use of whatsapp calling as they were given access and allowed to monitor. China will also allow once it gets access.
Taek 9y ago
Putting citizens in the strict climate that China has created almost certainly causes a chilling effect for some ideas. But what if the ideas that it chills are ones that generally detract from the goal of China becoming a world power? I'm not ready to rule out the idea that China has become a global power because of, and not in spite if, the way that it controls citizens.
jansho 9y ago
> The more China closes up, the less Western companies have to fear about future tech dominance or crazy innovation from China in the long run. Not sure about this, they're pretty prolific at sending their students out to learn from others. They've also invested a lot in their universities recently. Also maybe innovation is a bit overrated? So far China's been doing well being the "world's giant copy machine", and learning from our mistakes to see what really works.
StreamBright 9y ago
I know another copying machine that works very well: https://thehustle.co/rocket-internet-oliver-samwer https://thehustle.co/rocket-internet-oliver-samwer
briandear 9y ago
The west is nowhere near China enough it comes to censorship and government control. It’s an entirely different league.
- chaostheory 9y ago
  My comment was about the future and not the past or present
samfisher83 9y ago
China has gone from basically poverty to the second largest economy in the world in roughly 25 years. You have to give them a little credit for doing something right. As long as people have food to eat and people 's lives are getting better they will put up with government. Once that stops happening problems will start happening. Are there negatives? Yes. Lack of freedom. Corruption. At the same time people are able to get job not worry about food etc. You have to look at the baseline of where they where.
- chaostheory 9y ago
  To clear things up, my comment has nothing to do the accomplishments of Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping. It's not a criticism of China as a whole, it's just criticism of the policies of the current CCP faction in power, which will likely erase some of the gains that you mention in the long run. The difference between back then and today is that in the past China couldn't always enforce dumb laws. Now they can.
bogomipz 9y ago
>"What the long-term effects will be: China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. They are are the bread basket of the Western tech world's hardware though. Does anyone else have the facilities and expertise to churn out that hardware that the dominant West tech giants rely on? Couldn't you argue that they are already innovating? With Huawei, Xiaomi and BBK they don't need the West's hardware designs. And being able to cherry pick successful ideas of the West's tech companies they have the best of both worlds. And with a population of over a billion people it seems like the West's tech giants need them more than the other way around. I am not saying I agree with their polices just that I don't see how they don't find those policies concerning.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

zitterbewegung 9y ago

I think the blocking of foreign corporations also serves as a way to eliminate competition for services that are created inside the country. Obviously they would be able to pressure the in country services to do whatever they want.

chaostheory 9y ago
You're right. There's definitely protectionism, but imo moves like limiting VPN's go beyond that.
- chrischen 9y ago
  A lot of people use VPNs to access foreign services. It's quite popular to use Instagram in China, even though it's blocked.

micaksica 9y ago

> The people who will get ahead in China in the future are the ones who are somehow able to live outside of China to experience new ideas. So in other words, the ruling class continues to rule, as they will be the only ones with the sanctioned political freedoms to study abroad, etc. > China's fate as being relegated to being the world's giant copy machine is sealed unless things revert China being the world's giant copy machine has worked very well for those in power in China. Why not sustain that as long as possible? What other country has the stability and resources to replicate that? Most countries with extremely cheap labor don't have the supply chain.

princekolt 9y ago
> China being the world's giant copy machine has worked very well for those in power in China. Yes, but that's not OPs point, I think. What I think OP means is that the west doesn't have to worry (much) about China becoming the world's main innovation spot, because with censorship, the best they can do is copy. In a weird way, this is good for the western world.
- FabHK 9y ago
  I think that's too optimistic. It seems to me that China manages to control the vast majority of the population. If you have technical expertise and perseverance, you can still circumvent the GFW (great firewall), install WhatsApp, etc., and I think you will continue to be able to - but most people in China don't. (It's a bit like pirating music and movies in the west - you can still do it, but many people now use the legal options (iTunes, Netflix, ...), because it's just not worth the hassle.) But the CCP doesn't care about a small elite knowing things. OP contends that suppressing political discontent and censoring & controlling the communication of the vast majority of people will necessarily impede innovation and economic growth. That's not obvious to me at all, unfortunately.
- AmIFirstToThink 9y ago
  The best they do is manufacture. The kids growing now in West have lost ability to tinker. If you are into electronics and manufacturing, China is like playground to experiment. In the west, we are losing rights to fix the gadgets we own.

chrischen 9y ago

They're actually blocking to increase innovation and future growth... of domestic products. Not being subject to a foreign chat app monopoly (although Whatsapp wasn't even close to that) is what they're trying to avoid.

627467 9y ago

This is not a new situation. I grew up in a more liberal part of China and always thought their political situation was their bottleneck for economic, cultural and human development. The state of the world right now shows how I was wrong. And as you mentioned, tightening of control by different governments around the world seems to indicate that we have found a common trend and its not the liberal one...

pishpash 9y ago
There will be a bottleneck. It took hundreds of years of sea ban for Ming China to fall behind in the Age of Sail; it might take a few decades for a closed society to euthanize itself in a digital age built on free exchange and open discourse.
- 627467 9y ago
  But thats not the direction communist china has been taking. It has been opening more and more since the 70s
  - chaostheory 9y ago
    Yes, it’s been that way until now. That was my point.

AndrewKemendo 9y ago

Completely agree that they will further cement their power, but it won't be at the cost of innovation and growth IMO. China's access to leading technologies and technologists is absolutely unparalleled. The amount of Chinese students that are publishing some of the leading CS and ML research from the best universities and corporations worldwide is staggering when compared to all other nations. China isn't 'Closing up' they are pushing people to use the services that they control and have insight into. Consider that Tencent, Baidu etc... all have major offices in SV, Seattle, LA etc. Remember the story from yesterday about the Chinese ADTech company giving $3M salaries? That's just growing. Unless the US, Canada, France, Israel etc... closes the visa program for Chinese workers Chinese companies will continue to be relevant and innovative - and they will likely grow faster with more tailored services because, China has the biggest capabilities to mine user data - more than any other nation by far.

pangfandang 9y ago
> The amount of Chinese students that are publishing... That's the thing. These are mostly overseas Chinese working for US/European companies who have no desire to return to China. Talk to any of them, and they're always concerned about the status of their visa and are ecstatic when they become a citizen of a democracy. > China isn't 'Closing up' they are pushing people to use the services Tencent and Baidu are used by tiny tiny tiny portions of westerners > Unless the US, Canada, France, Israel etc... closes the visa program There's no need, these Chinese students are staying and not returning to China. By the way, since you think China is doing such a good job of education: remember that Rural households have a per capita income of only 9,892 yuan – about $4 dollars a day. and there's 680 million of these rural households still. "Surveys by Rozelle's team have found that more than half of eighth graders in poor rural areas in China have IQs below 90, leaving them struggling to keep up with the fast-paced official curriculum" http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/one-three-chinese-children-faces-education-apocalypse-ambitious-experiment-hopes-save http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/one-three-chinese-chi...
- AndrewKemendo 9y ago
  Tencent and Baidu are used by tiny tiny tiny portions of westerners That doesn't matter - they are focused on China and Asia. To think that they can't innovate inside the borders and with a significant number of people inside other companies and abroad is just putting blinders on. since you think China is doing such a good job of education Whoa, never said that. Mainland domestic policies for 1.7B (non official number) people are mediocre at best.

eyeareque 9y ago

I used to think this way too until I went to china. The current batch of US apps are also copies of earlier apps. Remember chatting on bbses? IRC, ICQ, etc? China doesn’t need western internet companies, they have a quarter of the world’s population. Can you blame them for wanting to promote home grown apps to build wealth within their country? Also, they like control, why would you let an foreigner end to end encryption app into your country? I don’t agree with their control but it’s not my country. I’m surprised iMessage worked for me while I was there. I wonder what consessions Apple had to give for that?

vim_wannabe 9y ago
The elite still probably likes to use iDevices themselves. Once they get some other luxury brands going its time for the concessions.
- eyeareque 9y ago
  Could be yeah. But it really makes me wonder. I can’t see china allowing a messaging platform in their country that doesn’t have a way to monitor everything. Maybe the fact that iPhones are all made in china allow them, for the time being.
jzl 9y ago
I’m surprised iMessage worked for me while I was there. I wonder what consessions Apple had to give for that? From the article: 'Other services provided by American technology companies are available in mainland China. The country tolerates Microsoft’s Skype service for phone calls, which does not provide end-to-end encryption and as a result is easier for governments to monitor. Beijing also allows Apple’s FaceTime service, which has end-to-end encryption but does not have a WhatsApp-like feature allowing users to exchange secret codes — letting WhatsApp users combat what are known as “man in the middle” attacks.'
- FabHK 9y ago
  Sorry, but is there any evidence that iMessage or FaceTime has been MITMed? In China or elsewhere? (I wonder whether it's tolerated because of Apple's small market share...)

bitcuration 9y ago

China does have one hope, the need of censor will drive its technology innovation and even takes the bulk of its economy GDP. As you hinted China's leading censorship will inspire the world how much human can revert the process of internet, un-internet is what China will make its name for.

KGIII 9y ago
Tithe GFW has been around since 1998. I'm not sure it's going to eat the bulk of their GDP and it doesn't appear to have stopped them from innovating. It's a horrible idea, don't get me wrong, it is just that it doesn't look like it is going to be the end of them.

Certhas 9y ago

Alternative: Innovation happens within the context of Chinas censorship and political regime. Blocking of entrenched western competitors allows home grown solutions to spring up, and local technological know how to develop faster. Capitalism and innovation turn out to work within the context of an illiberal society just fine. Especially as China avoids the mistake of closing itself off to the rest of the world, but stays integrated in the markets, as well as the academic exchanges. The Chinese government doesn't stop high tech investment, but only blocks a few select companies that have products that are, at their core, easy to replicate (WhatsApp, Facebook, to a lesser degree Google) at a sufficient level of quality. Rather than free markets pushing towards a more liberal politics, the Chinese government develops means to make the market optimize for political obedience [1]. Most people individually will consider themselves "free enough", and not care about politics as long as the country is well managed. Nothing stops you from starting to research or trying to build self-driving cars in China [2]. China will continue to manage to hire western talent for its firms [3] until whatever skill gap still exists is filled. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/01/goldman-says-china-has-talent-data-and-infrastructure-to-embrace-ai.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/01/goldman-says-china-has-talen... [3] https://qz.com/1062035/half-of-the-top-10-employers-of-ai-talent-in-china-are-american/ https://qz.com/1062035/half-of-the-top-10-employers-of-ai-ta...

starchand 9y ago
100% this. And occasionally these apps out innervate their western counterparts. WeChat is better than WhatsApp, Facebook.
- cdelsolar 9y ago
  out innervate? nice astroturfing
- drraid0 9y ago
  How is it better than whatsapp?

emiliobumachar 9y ago

On the other hand, the West seems to take Copywright and Patents much more seriously, which also dampens creativity a lot. (The chilling effects from software patents alone seem to be very large) I wonder how the effects compare.

alexasmyths 9y ago

"their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth" Partly. The exception is that the Chinese are pretty good at this stuff, and that 'blocking foreign companies' simply let's local companies dominate. 'SnapChat' and 'What's App' are no innovation. For the most part. They are mostly just 'chat apps'. That's it. Ok, Snapchat does a 'really good job' at the 'visual storytelling part'. But China does not need that cutting-edge level of social interaction for a few years until someone copies it well. They'll do fine. China is actually big enough - and their techies are talented/aggressive enough - that they can get away with a lot of these shenanigans. You obviously have a good point though.

FabHK 9y ago
> 'blocking foreign companies' simply let's local companies dominate. Yes - in particular, consider that China has more people than North America and Europe together, so a Chinese "domestic" firm has quite a market.
- seppin 9y ago
  > Yes - in particular, consider that China has more people than North America and Europe together, so a Chinese "domestic" firm has quite a market. India has +1 billion too but no one to sell to

flexie 9y ago

I think censorship is only part of the reason. Protectionism and national security probably plays a role aswell. Look at the list of websites they block: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Websites_blocked_in_mainland_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Websites_blocked_in_mainland... Google, facebook, instagram, twitter etc. Those are one-way streets that provide next to no jobs, little tech transfer and no tax revenue to the countries they do business in, but tend to outcompete the local rivals if left to it, and are proven to provide a convenient surveillance platform for American intelligence. It's surprising that any country would allow that to continue unchecked. The Chinese solution is certainly not great but I doubt the US would allow Chinese companies to keep a daily log on the activities of most US citizens and businesses. Or to replace entire industries like advertising without providing jobs or taxes in return.

KGIII 9y ago
I don't know that the United States has any legal mechanism to prevent an online Chinese company from holding the top position and doing what American-native companies do with the data. At least I can't think of any such mechanism? Perhaps someone here is a legal scholar?
- RobertoG 9y ago
  If the last years have show us anything it is that the USA government (and others) can create the legality that they think more convenient. For instance, you can invent a new category in order to avoid detaining people like criminals or war enemies if none of the laws applying to those are convenient.
  - KGIII 9y ago
    True, and I wouldn't put it past them, but I know of no current legal mechanism for that. Emphasis on legal, of course. It does make me wonder what they'd use for justification - prior to the current administration. The current administration would just use nationalism and protectionism, I'd think. I'm not sure how the previous administration would have framed it in order to make it politically feasible.

princetontiger 9y ago

China hasn't invented anything. Why would this change today? I'm not sure why you're surprised. For a billion people, I think the WSJ says there is maybe 1 or 2 patents assigned to the country.

nylonstrung 9y ago
What about paper, bitch?
sctb 9y ago
Since you continue to violate the guidelines with inflammatory nationalistic rants, we've banned the account.

lumberjack 9y ago

Sorry, I have to disagree. How do you suppose more innovation would have happened if instead of China, blocking US tech, they let them have the whole market from the get go and instead of WeChat there would be Whatsapp and instead of Baidu, there would be Google? How is that more innovation? You can just look at Europe. I'm not advocating any policies or supporting anyone. I am just disputing the claim that free markets maximise innovation in this particular instance.

wybiral 9y ago
> instead of WeChat there would be Whatsapp and > instead of Baidu, there would be Google I think that's the kind of thing that the parent poster meant with this phrase: > The end result is that China's fate as being > relegated to being the world's giant copy machine
chaostheory 9y ago
> How do you suppose more innovation would have happened if instead of China, blocking US tech, they let them have the whole market from the get go and instead of WeChat there would be Whatsapp and instead of Baidu, there would be Google? 1. Competition breeds innovation. Monopolies and the like encourage stagnation. 2. How do you know Google would win in China if China didn't block them? Unlike Europe, China is extremely nationalistic. Even if the home brand was slightly worse, it would still probably win the majority of the market. Of course, the only thing stronger than Chinese nationalism is Chinese pessimism so we'll never know.
- capisce 9y ago
  Sometimes trade protectionism is good for an economy. In fact it's the strategy all the somewhat successful Asian nations (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China) used to get ahead, whereas the countries who followed the neoliberalist model of the west too closely (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, etc) lagged behind. Suggest reading 'How Asia Works' by Joe Studwell.

iliketosleep 9y ago

This situation is more nuanced that you might think. They are not preventing everybody from gaining access to outside ideas. In fact, they are actually encouraging their top students to spend time at elite universities abroad; they are aggressively pushing for more "partnerships" with top Western universities. Additionally, they have special Internet lines for approved entities, giving unrestricted access. In theory, selectively giving access to information this way is the best of both worlds; protecting the masses from "dangerous" foreign ideas that might challenge the Party's authority, whilst still gaining full advantage of the west's technical progress. In fact, what they've taken from the West has enabled their surveillance state. Western governments have being underestimating China for years, at their own peril. Sadly, China has not underestimated the West's thirst for money, and has used this to their own advantage.

natural219 9y ago

I've been reading Westerners talk about how China is doomed for 10 years now. Every "mean" or disagreeable thing they do seemingly spells doom for their regime, but they keep getting bigger and more powerful. Maybe I should read less English-language media on the subject.

eurticket 9y ago

> China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. The same thing happens in the U.S on another level. This isn't necessarily a case the choking of the free flow of information and censorship, but I think we've all seen a steady increase in the future being delayed for the now. Around a month ago, there was an question on HN discussing train automation and why it isn't already done as it seems much easier to automate than other forms of transportation. A first-hand account commented that it was because unions have been fighting to block it to keep their jobs; stalling innovation and future growth.

Dolores12 9y ago

>China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. Talking about innovations, there are few areas where China is ahead of the whole world - like AliPay and WeChat payment systems. I am wondering how you gonna explain China's success when its GDP surpass United States one.

IncRnd 9y ago

> The people who will get ahead in China in the future are the ones who are somehow able to live outside of China to experience new ideas. There are more people in China than in the United States, Europe, and Russia combined. China already manufactures your clothes, chips, computers, phones, and missile chips. I don't think it's correct, given the world's dependence on China, to say China is somehow behind the times (wrt computer innovation).

davemp 9y ago
manufacturing =/= innovation
- IncRnd 9y ago
  Who do you think writes all the software for those manufacturing facilities? Yahoo? Who has launched satellites into orbit to test quantum communications? Uber? Don't get caught up in association fallacies about who is able to innovate. A quarter of the world lives in China.
- bigbugbag 9y ago
  Please elaborate on this, as history tells a different story.
tim333 9y ago
I had to Google the missile thing. Bit of a shocker: "Last year, the U.S. Navy bought 59,000 microchips for use in everything from missiles to transponders and all of them turned out to be counterfeits from China." (http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-chinese-microchips-weapons-could-have-been-shut-off-2011-6?IR=T http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-chinese-microchips-weapo...)
- IncRnd 9y ago
  It's really a touchy situation, no matter the angle you look at it.

hhw 9y ago

China has a long and proud tradition as being at the forefront of civilization, and they see the last 100+ years or so just as a temporary setback. The current ruling class may not see the need to share with the outside world. This may sadly result in the decline of China's competitiveness on the world stage, but those in the ruling class may be more concerned with consolidating their power within the country. This is not a new problem for the Chinese; it's just repeating the cycle of every dynasty that came before. On a separate note, Whatsapp has been copying WeChat's features rather than the other way around for years. So perhaps China thinks they can innovate enough on their own to match or outpace the outside world. While I don't think that's impossible, I don't think they've taken into account how much the cultural revolution wiped out a lot of culture and collective wisdom built up over the centuries, and that will put them at much more of a disadvantage than they realize.

teknologist 9y ago
WeChat's "features"? Come on people, these chat apps are pretty basic I use both WeChat and WhatsApp extensively
- paradite 9y ago
  Wechat = WhatsApp + Facebook + PayPal Unless you mean Facebook and PayPal are nothing, you are wrong.
- newen 9y ago
  Wechat had audio messages way before whatsapp. And the animated emojis way before facebook. Both used to be the shit when I was using wechat a couple of years ago. Also you can use wechat to as essentially a credit card. It's like a blob app that has everything in it.

fspeech 9y ago

Just for context, Chinese made 122 millon overseas trips last year https://www.travelchinaguide.com/tourism/2016statistics/outbound.htm https://www.travelchinaguide.com/tourism/2016statistics/outb... The censorship of social media is mainly to prevent collective action: "The study showed that, contrary to western conventional wisdom, Chinese social media is as raucous and chaotic as it is everywhere else, so the Daily Mail’s idea of a country full of timid, faceless people with only banal opinions is baloney. The study also revealed, though, that these outlets are ruthlessly but astutely censored: what gets taken down, apart from the usual suspects such as Falun Gong, pornography, democracy etc, are any posts that could conceivably stimulate collective action, even when the posts are favourable towards the government. You can say more or less what you like in China, in other words, as long as nothing you say might have the effect of getting people out on to the streets." https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/22/chinese-internet-censorship-uses-distraction https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/22/chines...

seppin 9y ago
doesn't sound like a ticketing time bomb at all..

smegel 9y ago

> What the long-term effects will be: China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. Yeah blocking a foreign competitor is going to be terrible for innovative Chinese startups.

Fluid_Mechanics 9y ago

I disagree - I think having some control over the self-destructive urges of a population during times of economic trouble is a positive thing. Several democracies with cancerous social media networks are teetering on the brink of right-wing proto-fascist parties as a result of the recent recession and perceived immigration issues. The mob needs to be controlled for progress to be protected.

phyller 9y ago
This would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic. You realize this is exactly what every evil dictator in history thought? They didn't wake up one morning and decide to be evil, they were trying to do what they thought was right. In their minds they were good, they were actually trying to make the world a better place, according to their world view. They had great plans, and the foolish mob didn't know what was best for them. And one thing led to another. So what if the right-wing people in charge had the same ideas as you? Several democracies with cancerous social media networks have been teetering on the brink of left-wing national socialism, the mob needs to be controlled. What we dislike about fascists and their ilk is not the right-wing or left-wing part, it is how they deal with those they disagree with. Stalin was responsible for more deaths than Hitler, Mao for more than Stalin, neither of them right wing. If you were able to enforce what you suggest, you would be worse than those you oppose. But you are right about democracies devolving in certain times of stress. How about this statement instead? "The mob needs to be inspired by the self-sacrificial service of good leaders for progress to be made"
pishpash 9y ago
Or, there could be some genuine redistribution so the mobs wouldn't have to be suppressed by the hording, greedy bourgeoisie.
IncRnd 9y ago
You really should read about fascism. You're the fascist, trying to control people, because you think you know what's best for them.

afpx 9y ago

Are there historical examples of states imposing social control while also succeeding technologically? I can only think of the counter examples.

sytelus 9y ago

I don't think there is virtually any impact on innovations in China because of western social media censorships. China is on track to match US in AI research paper output, for example. Same goes for other fields in medicine and manufacturing. Also, you have to look at Chinese view point to understand why there is no revolt in China around blocking Google or Facebook. The argument that government has successfully made is that China is not ready for democracy, the democracy usually means incompetent politicians coming to power because of their ability to fool people and that lot of developing countries which adopted democracy have managed to make only a tiny fraction of progress that China has made (for example, compare India with China in metrics like GDP, research output or army).

throwaway1984_ 9y ago
High-output of research papers from China is not surprising at all: considering they pay hundreds of thousands of dollars per paper published in a prestigious journal[1]. [1]: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/chinese-scholars-win-ps127000-for-papers-in-top-journals https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/chinese-scholars-w...
- newen 9y ago
  It's not too different from the publish or perish culture in US academia, only with a solid cash reward for publishing in peer reviewed journals. I mean professors here are filtered for number of articles here too. Considering the amount of funding that goes to research groups in some universites with the same amount of quality research output as research groups in smaller universities with drastically lower funding, I don't even think it's economically wasteful.

alexasmyths 9y ago

side note: People decry Trump for his words on 'starting a trade war' with China. I am no fan of Trump or Bannon - but on this they are right: we are already in a trade war. Blocking companies from participating arbitrarily, making it 'very difficult' for others, currency manipulation, capital controls, outright theft of IP. This, in any other situation is a trade war. Imagine the EU just says 'no Google in Europe'. That's crazy. It's a trade war. Because back in the 1980's, the world basically let China do as they please because they were 'rebuilding' (think Japan or Korea after their wars) - we sort of got used to it. But if China is going to play this game (hey, it's their right), then there should be a response of some kind. Responding to 'trade intransigence' is not a 'trade war' - it's just tit for tat. Won't happen though - as big USA corps are so greedy to want a big massive slice of the magic unicorn dangled in front of the by the Chinese gov, they shut up and 'kow-tow' :). It's changing maybe a little bit though, what I'm saying is not new, it's just not spoken that much publicly. For some interesting insight see Charlie Rose w/Richard McGregor: https://charlierose.com/videos/30937 https://charlierose.com/videos/30937

AmIFirstToThink 9y ago

Why wouldn't the Chinese hear about the next best mouse trap if whatsapp is banned? Why wouldn't the manufacturer of next best mouse trap like to sell the product in China if whatsapp is banned? As far as Chinese government is concerned there is no downside to banning whatsapp. It's not like whatsapp has turned into substitute for Nature for scientific publication. Many capitalist companies like the controls of communist China. They find it easier to do business in. Does that make China more innovative for new businesses compared to open monitoring in the western world? Is Apple going to move manufacturing to USA because China banned whatsapp? hell, no. China gets to make an example out of whatsapp to make smaller players play by their rules, giving auditing powers and speech controls to Chinese government, or get locked out of 15% of world's emerging market population. Lesson to progressive liberals of western world, appreciate what you got here and work to protect it, instead of insulting western values at every opportunity.

panzer_wyrm 9y ago

WeChat is pretty innovative

rorykoehler 9y ago

Chinese have no problem sharing. If you've used wechat you'll know it's western tech that has fallen behind.

vixen99 9y ago
Wiki says (though who wrote it?) 'It (wechat) is widely known as one of the world's most innovative and versatile app, as well as China's "App For Everything", with numerous unique functions and platforms ranging from 'payment' to 'social media' to 'services' to 'shopping' and more, that are equivalent to multiple Google Play or App Store's apps, but merged into one. Is it that impressive vis a vis Western Tech?
- rorykoehler 9y ago
  Yes. Look at the iPhone for example. All the tech existed before but not in one package. WeChat is the future. Even Facebook are scrambling to copy features now.

Iv 9y ago

The CCP congress is next month. They have always cracked down on censorship before it. Their 5-years plan for 2016-2020 is about transitioning from the basic industry to more advanced industry and services. They want more research, they want more IT. Chinese IT workers are very critical of the Great Firewall and depend on VPNs to do a lot of things. I think many are realizing that the Firewall is a handicap, but it is also undeniable that it is a very useful political tool. They will have to put that into the balance in front of their will to innovate. They are also moving toward global leadership. In ecology, in foreign relations, they are willing to take the leadership that US is leaving. After being largely dismissive of it, if enough international pressure builds up, they may realize that opening up will help them reach these goals. Sadly, thanks in no small part to Trump, they are probably realizing how dangerous it is to let people vote in a place where medias are not controlled, so my bet is that we will see either some more voting or some more openness in information exchange, but not both. > To be fair, things may even out since Western governments seem to be doing all they can to copy China's censorship and gov control. USA is jailing more of its citizens than China. Even in absolute numbers. USA kills more non-citizens abroad than China. In EU we tend to side with USA anyway because it is a democracy but the last president had less votes than his opponent and is a white supremacist. Understand that for most of the world, accepting USA as a good guy is already a hell of a compromise. Seeing China as acceptable is not more far-fetched.

elefanten 9y ago
If they actually open in response to some of the forces you name, great! More power to them. I, personally, think that would be their best move in terms of global competitiveness over the next 100 years. But it takes some major cynicism to actually consider the moral impact of USA vs China on a global stage comparable. They are much quieter about their international adventurism, but they have a decades long history of protecting and supporting bad actors. Whatever the failure of the USA, North Korea would not be a new breakout nuclear power threatening to become the most likely scenario for nuclear war without major backing and even encouragement from China. China also has multiple ongoing, top-down, programmed genocides happening in several territories, including cultural and institutional colonization of Hong Kong and Taiwan. And that's not even raising the question of who's political values are better, both morally and strategically, for the human race. I understand why cynicism with the US (and the whole West in general) is high... but let's keep things in perspective here.

maxwin 9y ago

This kind of policy definitely hinders China's long term innovation. But in this specific case, wechat is way ahead of what'sapp in terms of innovation and utility.

maxwin 9y ago

This kind of policy hinders China's innovation in the long term. But in this specific case, wechat is way ahead (years ahead I would say) of what's app in terms of innovation or utility.

lyrachord 9y ago

1, Chrome complains the newtimes link illegal. 2, Don't say what you don't know. The copy machine stating is the old fashion. Didn't you know china and typography thousands years ago? fine. there is a little thing. at jroller/qinxianscript, there is a antialias tec, no none knows the better one, even Nvidia and AMD. sigh, looking at your mouth pronounce trends, maybe you wanna say China maybe copy the benefit from the little place GBE colonization. Did you know the civil servants system of English copied from where? So from a man view, there should be developing and applying, should not be evil. Din't you know you live in a les miserables?

rdlecler1 9y ago

That is totally wrong. If you think that China lacks innovation then you clearly have never been there. China is one of the most dynamic capitalistic countries in the world and there is no shortage of innovation. Even if then they have 1/3rd the innovators as the US, they still have 40% more innovators than the U.S. Innovation will just happen within the context of Chinese political constraints. The real threat is not to innovators in China, but to the rest of the tech world who are locked out of the Chinese market because of assymetric market conditions.

chaostheory 9y ago
ok, I understand that this is an emotional subject (I can relate), so please re-read the comment that you're responding to. 1. It didn't say China lacks innovation. 2. It is not critical of China as a whole. It is critical of the ones making stupid, selfish laws in China out of fear, which imo will hurt growing innovation in China. 3. If there's no shortage of Chinese innovation, why is there so much fear of 'inferior' outside competition?
- IncRnd 9y ago
  Yet, the comment does say China lacks innovation. > The end result is that China's fate as being relegated to being the world's giant copy machine is sealed unless things revert Why do you think that China has "fear of 'inferior' outside competition"?
  - chaostheory 9y ago
    No the comment says China WILL lose its current momentum for innovation. It’s a prediction of the future It’s pretty evident China fears outside competition when they block competitors from entering their market. They have no confidence in their home grown companies surviving contrary to hard evidence
    - IncRnd 9y ago
      You assume facts not in evidence and write as if your biases are evident as the truth. China has a history of blocking outside influence in order to control the populace, so fear of competition with apps may not be the motivation.

xbmcuser 9y ago

This is just a temporary ban saudia just allowed use of whatsapp calling as they were given access and allowed to monitor. China will also allow once it gets access.

Taek 9y ago

Putting citizens in the strict climate that China has created almost certainly causes a chilling effect for some ideas. But what if the ideas that it chills are ones that generally detract from the goal of China becoming a world power? I'm not ready to rule out the idea that China has become a global power because of, and not in spite if, the way that it controls citizens.

jansho 9y ago

> The more China closes up, the less Western companies have to fear about future tech dominance or crazy innovation from China in the long run. Not sure about this, they're pretty prolific at sending their students out to learn from others. They've also invested a lot in their universities recently. Also maybe innovation is a bit overrated? So far China's been doing well being the "world's giant copy machine", and learning from our mistakes to see what really works.

StreamBright 9y ago

I know another copying machine that works very well: https://thehustle.co/rocket-internet-oliver-samwer https://thehustle.co/rocket-internet-oliver-samwer

briandear 9y ago

The west is nowhere near China enough it comes to censorship and government control. It’s an entirely different league.

chaostheory 9y ago
My comment was about the future and not the past or present

samfisher83 9y ago

China has gone from basically poverty to the second largest economy in the world in roughly 25 years. You have to give them a little credit for doing something right. As long as people have food to eat and people 's lives are getting better they will put up with government. Once that stops happening problems will start happening. Are there negatives? Yes. Lack of freedom. Corruption. At the same time people are able to get job not worry about food etc. You have to look at the baseline of where they where.

chaostheory 9y ago
To clear things up, my comment has nothing to do the accomplishments of Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping. It's not a criticism of China as a whole, it's just criticism of the policies of the current CCP faction in power, which will likely erase some of the gains that you mention in the long run. The difference between back then and today is that in the past China couldn't always enforce dumb laws. Now they can.

bogomipz 9y ago

>"What the long-term effects will be: China's ruling class further cement their power at the cost of China's innovation and future growth. They are are the bread basket of the Western tech world's hardware though. Does anyone else have the facilities and expertise to churn out that hardware that the dominant West tech giants rely on? Couldn't you argue that they are already innovating? With Huawei, Xiaomi and BBK they don't need the West's hardware designs. And being able to cherry pick successful ideas of the West's tech companies they have the best of both worlds. And with a population of over a billion people it seems like the West's tech giants need them more than the other way around. I am not saying I agree with their polices just that I don't see how they don't find those policies concerning.