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Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands
- mullen 9y agoI hate to inject politics into this, but Red States are about to learn that elections have consequences.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- sctb 9y ago> Eschew flamebait. Don't introduce flamewar topics unless you have something genuinely new to say. Avoid unrelated controversies and generic tangents. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- lugg 9y agoBeen watching this for a few days with /r/tropicalweather. Amazing to watch. This site[1] has some really good info and daily videos with the rundown of the latest forecast [1] https://www.tropicaltidbits.com https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
- sathackr 9y agoI really like the amount of info spaghettimodels.com gathers into one place.
- Jazonk 9y agoIt's also pretty fascinating to look at the Satellite images. Here you can check out the latest from the hi-res GOES-16. It's insane to see the scale of the hurricane, all told. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/
- piceas 9y agoThey have a nice loop of Irma's eye. 2017/09/05 - A closeup look at Hurricane Irma's eye via 1-min Band 2 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_of_the_day/ http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_of_the_d... mp4 link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20170905000000/video/20170905000000_irma6.mp4 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/loop_o...
- outoftacos 9y agoHurricanes rotate counter clockwise, so the highest wind speeds and storm surge tend to occur to the "right" or on the east/southeast side of the eye path. Currently Miami looks to be right in the center of this danger zone, so just get out now while you still can. Yes it's a few days out and they can and usually do veer off, but this one is not worth riding out.
- zeep 9y agoa hard steer to the right would be nice... but many of them do a slow steer and would get me right in it... http://www.stuartflelectrician.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/hurricane-paths.png http://www.stuartflelectrician.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/1...
- zeep 9y agosome spaghetti models predict a pretty hard right steer, but a little too late.... http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.png http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.png
- MisterBastahrd 9y agoHasn't Miami been sinking a bit over the past few decades? I would imagine it wouldn't take much storm surge to flood parts of the city. In that case, they really don't wanna be on that side of the storm.
- ftxrcc 9y agoAs a Puerto Rican preparing for Irma, yes, we're pretty freaked.
- winslow 9y agoStay safe and I hope all goes well with minimal damage.
- ftxrcc 9y agoThank you!
- singularity2001 9y agochances are you will just be saved : https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/07/0000Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-60.02,16.20,3000/loc=-64.437,18.539 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/07/0000Z/wind/isobaric...
- TylerE 9y agoThis is shockingly bad "advice". A Category 5 hurricane is not a point source, and storm prediction is far from an exact science.
- ftxrcc 9y agoIt was expected to go north today. Unfortunately, all models were wrong and it actually is coming much faster to our direction, and it keeps getting stronger. I'm legitimately scared.
- rovr138 9y agoWe all are. I’m in Guaynabo. Not close to the coast, so I didn’t have to evacuate. Came down for the weekend, stayed because of the hurricane... Be safe!
- DiNovi 9y agoheart goes out to viaques, which looks like it'll take a worse hit then the main island
- joezydeco 9y agoI've got a Christmas vacation booked in Providenciales and I give it a 50/50 chance the VRBO I booked will still be there. People are trying to get off Grand Turk as fast as they can. The airlines have overbooked outbound flights and the airport is closing on Thursday for 48 hours. I'm hoping the damage is minimal. outoftacos mentions that eastern sides of the islands take more of a hit which gives some solace here.
- leggomylibro 9y agoOof. This is ramping up to be quite the hurricane/monsoon season. I don't know much about meteorology, so I'll post this without comment besides the article's subject; maybe someone else can make an informed value judgement. But apparently as global temperatures rise, the atmosphere is going to be able to hold a lot more water: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/the-strange-future-hurricane-harvey-portends/538557/ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/the-stra...
- JshWright 9y agoThe atmosphere can hold more water, and the oceans hold more heat. Hurricanes thrive on warm water (especially deep warm water, as the hurricane will churn up water from deeper levels, which can weaken it significantly if it's stirring up a lot of cold water). One of the reasons Harvey intensified so quickly is that is passed over a _very_ warm section of the gulf: https://s.w-x.co/wu/ohc_aQG3_2016_237_1200.harvey.int__0.gif https://s.w-x.co/wu/ohc_aQG3_2016_237_1200.harvey.int__0.gif Irma will be passing over similarly warm waters for the next 4-5 days: http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/irma/ohc_aQG3_2017_248_1200.irma.int.gif http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/irma/ohc_aQG3_20... The northern Leewards and Greater Antilles are in for a _really_ rough time. It's likely a direct hit (or close brush) with either Hispaniola or Cuba will weaken Irma before it turns north into Florida, but that's still really bad news for folks in the northern Caribbean, and it's still going to be a very serious storm when it hits Florida.
- idlewords 9y agoCliff Mass (whose blog is really worth following) points out that this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards. There is not a big temperature anomaly in the waters fueling these storms: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hurricane-harvey.html http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/08/global-warming-and-hur... In other words, this is the kind of storm season you can expect to get once in a while even before factoring in the effect of warming seas.
- cryptoz 9y agoPlease note that the Cliff Mass blog post you linked to is not about the hurricane discussed here. Also note that your summary of his post ("this is not an abnormal hurricane season by historical standards") is misleading as that is not the topic or conclusion of that piece.
- 0xCMP 9y agoI already bought my flight out of South Florida. The worst should be over by the time it reaches Alabama so I figure anywhere NE/MW is good to hold out.
- ars 9y agoI remember reading a few days ago that European models were predicting a turn to the north, and US models were predicting a high pressure ridge holding the hurricane to the west. Anyone know more about this? Because if true, it's the second time European models were more correct than American ones. Last time they decided we needed more supercomputing power, and they got it. Did it help?
- JshWright 9y agoThe models are converging on a northward turn right around the southern tip of Florida. We're still too far out to be talking about which one was 'right' or 'wrong' (it's common for there to be a lot of variability in the 5+ day forecasts).
- mikeyouse 9y ago> Last time they decided we needed more supercomputing power, and they got it. Did it help? Per a few sources I've seen, no, it didn't. One big cause of the GFS (USA) model's inaccuracy is lack the of computing power, which we've addressed a few times with new supercomputing clusters. The bigger problem is that the GFS model uses bad underlying physics. Decades ago we made several choices to optimize around the current architecture and processing ability, which was probably okay in the mid 1990s. Today, it just results in greatly inferior predictive ability compared to the European models. When you combine the poor model physics with lower resolution compared to the competitors, it becomes clear that we need to reboot the whole thing. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/us-numerical-weather-prediction-is.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/us-numerical-weather-...
- yourapostasy 9y agoThank you very much for pointing this out, TIL. To save others the time to look up which model the US National Weather Service (NWS) chose, they selected the [1] Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) FV-3, which the author of the linked blog article above was opposed to. The US has a "weather modeling gap", which is surprising to me, because of the economic (many futures contracts move on forecasts, though many of the forecasting used by financial firms is increasingly from private sources), public policy, and military applications. [1] http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-national-weather-service-moves-to.html http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-national-weather-s...
- rbritton 9y agoThis site makes an appearance on HN somewhat regularly, but in case it's new to anyone, it tends to be a pretty useful forecast visual for wind: https://www.windy.com/?25.820,-67.720,5 https://www.windy.com/?25.820,-67.720,5
- xrqvt 9y agowindy, ventusky and some of the others do NOT get wind speeds correctly. At no time during the last three days did they even have winds for Hurricane Irma over 80mph. Discussion on their forums[0], most upset that these 'visualizers' are more fiction than fact. Also worth noting... getting wind speeds wrong can cost lives. [0] https://community.windy.com/topic/4415/why-is-wind-speed-in-hurricanes-so-wrong https://community.windy.com/topic/4415/why-is-wind-speed-in-...
- olegkikin 9y agoIt's also interesting to look at the bigger picture. The southern hemisphere has its own level of insanity going on: https://www.windy.com/?-22.513,39.375,3 https://www.windy.com/?-22.513,39.375,3
- rpeden 9y agoI think that's somewhat normal below 40 degrees south. Lots of open ocean without any significant land masses to slow things down. See more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Forties https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Forties
- singularity2001 9y agolest we forget the Furious Fifties
- elbac 9y agoIs that normal?
- jcranmer 9y ago
- dsfyu404ed 9y agoI really need to fill up my truck before there's another post hurricane price hike.
- drewmol 9y agoI think the price hike is mainly due to decreased refining capacity, I doubt a hurricane in Miami/SF would have the same effect.
- dsfyu404ed 9y agoIIRC there's a some refining capacity in NC/SC, also the oil companies know that not everyone knows where there is and isn't refining capacity.
- cookiecaper 9y agoReported price gouging to the AG last year after Matthew -- gas station charging over $5/gal. Months later, they sent back a form letter with generic information about the definition of price gouging ("it is unlawful to sell [commodities] for an amount that grossly exceeds the average price for that commodity during the 30 days before the declaration of the state of emergency"). Was not impressed with the enforcement. So yes, good to fill up early.
- pbhjpbhj 9y agoMeanwhile in UK, for example, petrol (aka "gas") is $8.50/gal equivalent (£1.30/litre). >during the 30 days before the declaration of the state of emergency // How's that work. So if you hiked your prices and there's no state of emergency declared it's fine but if the state of emergency is declared 4 weeks later you're acting illegally? Seems like an unworkable regulation. Can you just give people a discount whilst there's no hurricane and remove the discount when you wish; same effect, just legally differentiable??
- maxerickson 9y agoIt looks like the law examines the "trade area": http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0500-0599/0501/Sections/0501.160.html http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Displ... So you just need one joker actually selling gas at market price before the storm and the whole discounting scheme falls apart.
- swasheck 9y agoI know that this is slightly off-topic so feel free to downvote if you feel so inclined: There's a lot of money that goes into disaster relief and recovery. I think that's great and very worthwhile, thoughts on charity accountability notwithstanding. What I wonder, though, is if there are any organizations that provide pre-relief (prelief?) for disasters. For instance, the comment in this discussion about the airlines overbooking for flights out of the Turks made me think, "we've known that this is a possibility for a while, could aid funds be provided to get folks to safety in advance?" I know that there are a lot of logistical problems to solve (where do they go? for how long will they stay? what about their lives/livelihoods at home? how does an organization maintain accountability with donations for a disaster that has yet to happen?) Anyway, it's just a thought. I didn't know if such an organization existed, or if it's even feasible.
- Retric 9y agoYes, but the most common form is infrastructure. Schools for example are often over engineered so they can be used as evacuation shelters. Abstractly, the Red cross for examples also promotes disaster preparedness. http://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/make-a-plan http://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergenc... Simple notification is another, huge but often overlooked step. More immediate things like providing busing to evacuate people is often considered part of the event.
- zanny 9y agoI think the general trick is there are always enough people in the world in need of charity to make pre-funding private disaster relief seem like wasted potential. This is supposed to be something governments account for. They budget for and provide the insurance on giant disasters of this scale. If we want to do anything about improving the preparation and recovery from natural disasters, it will have to be a political engagement. The total costs of some of these incidents push tens of billions of dollars for the whole recovery. If there is anything governments should be accountable for, it is acts of nature.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
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- brianbreslin 9y agoFor those following storms I recommend two sites: http://spaghettimodels.com/ http://spaghettimodels.com/ and http://www.stormpulse.com http://www.stormpulse.com
- ransom1538 9y agoI am (was) in FL. I fled the state. I pray it doesn't hit texas again, in FL we can at least take a huge hit.
- S_A_P 9y agoHaving just lived through Harvey, I cannot stress enough that if you are in a position to evacuate, please do so. We were lucky to narrowly escape flooding in our home, but for 3 days we had no water, septic or power(need power for the other 2). The flooding had us stuck in our neighborhood but we were able to kayak out to safety. In addition to high winds(which Houston fortunately avoided) flooding is very dangerous. Those in the path of Irma should expect both. Again please evacuate if you can.
- agumonkey 9y agoI wonder how flat is the houston area. West indies are often volcanic islands. Meaning the high ground will probably be "safe" from flood, the lower parts on the other hands.. Somehow they're a bit used to storms so they're not going full noob on this.
- wandererer 9y agoHouston is some of the flattest land you'll find in the states, but at least we're not quite below sea level. I'm from Austin, and have lived in Tokyo, and I used to joke while in Tokyo you'd go stir-crazy missing trees and greenery, despite the large parks there; in Houston you go crazy missing hills and topography if you're used to it.
- agumonkey 9y agoHeh, I remember coming back from Martinique, I landed in Paris, and while we were driving I was a bit lost, there were no up and downs anymore; everything was sooo flat.
- triangleman 9y agoYou're thinking of Cuba, who are certainly not noobs at this [1]. West Indies unfortunately are routinely decimated by tropical storms. For instance Hugo in 1989 destroyed almost everything in St. Croix, US Virgin Islands, leading to widespread lawlessness until President Bush deployed troops there [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba_Emergency_Response_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba_Emergency_Response_System [2] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/hawkeye.htm http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/hawkeye.htm
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- nickgravel 9y agoI live in the Turks and Caicos Islands (Providenciales). We were lucky hurricane Matthew missed us last year, I suspect however that we won't be so lucky with Irma. It's worrisome to say the least.
- idlewords 9y agoGood luck out there, and stay safe.
- DarkTree 9y agoYou can see a visualization of the approaching hurricane here: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-62.10,15.50,976/loc=-51.028,21.881 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/ort...
- erobbins 9y agoI have been through 5 hurricanes in south florida, and always stayed put. Wilma was a strong 2/weak 3, and it was no joke. Afterwards there were trees uprooted everywhere, concrete power poles snapped like toothpicks. This storm's winds have 2.5x the energy of Wilma's currently. I would GTFO for this one, it looks really bad.
- MaxScheiber 9y agoI second this. Wilma's eye passed over us, which was my first time ever experiencing the eye wall of a hurricane. I vividly remember watching our house's patio enclosure get destroyed from my parents' bedroom. I wouldn't stick around for this one if I were still in Florida.
- rovr138 9y agoI’m in Puerto Rico. Came down for Labor Day weekend to visit family. I’m stuck here with my wife and our dog. At least we have been able to help family out.
- mikesickler 9y agoAs the models are updated, I'm starting to get more and more concerned about Tampa Bay: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.3ca651d0fb2a https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environm...
- jason_slack 9y agoWindy.com is pretty fun to use! But I have to ask something.... Irma is 180mph. Scroll the Windy.com map to between South America and Antartica. Is that really 330mph winds? https://www.windy.com/?-63.273,-79.277,3,m:YTadQA https://www.windy.com/?-63.273,-79.277,3,m:YTadQA screenshot, just in case: https://imgur.com/a/Jm2ir https://imgur.com/a/Jm2ir Still looking at Windy.com, Alaska is getting hit with 150mph winds right now. I haven't heard about that, but Irma is huge news on the back of Harvey. I guess I might be sheltered a bit. I seldom think about the weather much.
- razster 9y agoYou're looking at kt, knots, so roughly 45+mph winds. http://imgur.com/a/7sIIU http://imgur.com/a/7sIIU
- jason_slack 9y agoah, that explains a lot! Thank you for clarifying.
- devrandomguy 9y agoThe first number is the wind direction, in degrees, not velocity in a different unit. The UX could be improved with a ° symbol.
- Xoros 9y agoWinds started here in Guadeloupe. The sea is bumpy but not that much. Waiting for the night to come to see that will be. Big thoughts for all those who will be less lucky than us.
- rovr138 9y agoYou safe? Any updates? How’s it been? Expecting it here today/tonight (Puerto Rico)
- Xoros 9y agoThank for asking. Guadeloupe Island is now safe, without major damages, but the French northern islands (St Martin and St Barthélémy) have been heavily impacted. Don't have much news by now, but I saw video feeds that were very concerning. Stay safe, I wish you the best. And tell us if you're ok tomorrow.
- will_brown 9y agoI was 10 living in Miami during Hurricane Andrew, and I'm still here if that's were Irma hits. After Andrew we bought an RV and live in that outside our house for months while our home was repaired/rebuilt; I can't recall exactly but I'd say it was at least a month before power was restored to power refridge/deep freezer; for months my elementary school was shared with another school that was destroyed (we had half days); houses literally had "looters will be shot" spray painted on them; eventually national guard began patrolling the neighborhood for a couple months; it wasn't unusual for kids at school to be living off military MREs (meals ready to eat). And we always considered ourselves lucky.
- Aron 9y agoI got a question! What sets the upper bound of ~185mph on hurricanes?
- Sandorie 9y agoI was born and raised in Cuba. I lived through Katrina, Wilma, and many others (while in cuba). For the most part, everytime theres any climate discrepancy the primate part of the brain activates -chaos and disorganization arise- Which is, in part related to the amount of casualties. Key things to do: -keep calm -seek higher ground -gather dry food, and non-perishable food (nuts, dry meat, canned fish, etc) -water -detachment of any material things. (Countless lives have been lost because people refuse to let go of their belongings) -dont wait until the last minute to take action. In Cuba we didn't have nearly a quarter of the resources available in the U.S. We managed to minimize casualties because we kept our cool and didnt give in into despair.