11 ms·

Does anyone ever wonder if these missiles run their path due to glitches/malfunctions in the code rather than what's instructed by the operator? It's just hard

• awinder 9y ago
  Sabre rattling?
• kbenson 9y ago
  I actually had the same thought. What if North Korea had a mishap and wasn't intending to cause an incident (or at least, not one quite this extreme)? Would they feel like they could admit it was an accident, or would they play it off as intentional even if it wasn't?
  • JKCalhoun 9y ago
    Maybe it does not in fact matter what they say.
    • kbenson 9y ago
      Given that at least one nuclear strike was closely averted because of better information being available later during a misclassification of a launch of research rocket1], I think it definitely can matter. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls#1990s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls#19...
• Clubber 9y ago
  You are assuming rational actors. Some of them aren't. Also, know, that as soon as war starts with NK, they will start shelling Seoul with traditional artillery within a few minutes before we could do anything about it. I think Bannon estimated it at 10M deaths within the first 30 minutes with conventional weapons. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-korea-artillery_us_58f631a4e4b0b9e9848eb990 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-korea-artillery_us... Edit: Bannon casualty estimates and link. “Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.” https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/17/16162332/bannon-american-prospect-north-korea-military https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/17/16162332/bannon-american...
  • colordrops 9y ago
    Some aren't, but I've not seen any leaders of nations that are not mostly rational, considering that crazy looking actions may be their best bet when factoring in game theory against more powerful entities.
    • Someone 9y ago
      Indeed. Some people think North Korea _acts_ being irrational because it is the rational thing to do. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/26/kim-jong-un-is-a-survivor-not-a-madman/ http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/26/kim-jong-un-is-a-survivo...: "While North Korea’s nuclear program is defensive, it still makes sense to remind the world about its existence and use what President Richard Nixon once described as “madman strategy,” that is, to appear to one’s opponents to be irrational, volatile, and willing to disregard costs. That’s why North Korean propaganda uses such fiercely colorful language. When North Korean TV promises to “make Seoul into a sea of fire,” or threatens to nuke Canberra, or shows Kim Jong Un in front of a map of the United States with cities marked as targets of nuclear strikes, they are delivering the same message: “we are here, we are volatile, and will stop at nothing if our opponents do something threatening.”" Madman strategy has a Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory, which states Machiavelli wroet sometimes it is "a very wise thing to simulate madness"
      • worldsayshi 9y ago
        There's a fine line between mad and truly irrational though. If your opponents truly believe that you are irrational and volatile then their most rational response should be to do anything in their power to neutralise you before you can harm them.
        • abraae 9y ago
          The best thing is to appear like you are somewhat holding it together most of the time, but when pushed - when your temper flips on - that's when the big crazy comes out. That was more how Nixon used to play it. That's better than just full crazy all the time, which as you say, might draw a more dangerous response from your opponents.
• dep_b 9y ago
  Ask Hamas. Apparently there's some logic in shooting missiles at civilians to an enemy that can and will crush you if provoked too far.
  • saadazzz 9y ago
    The Untold History of Palestine & Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUZaR3op1qw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUZaR3op1qw
    • dep_b 9y ago
      I don't really understand what's still so untold about that story. It's on all mainstream news channels? I think kids learn it at school in most Western European countries. Hamas is a great ally for the colonists on the West Bank, it makes Palestinians look like shit over and over again.
• cirgue 9y ago
  Playing the crazy card is the only thing the NK regime has going for it strategically. Kim Jong Un wants to make sure that the prospect of regime change in NK is as unappealing as possible for the US, China, SK, and anyone else that might want to try. Part of that is demonstrating nuclear and missile capability in ways that seem reckless and dramatic. He wants policy makers to be 100% unsure of what would happen at an NK missile installation if there were a coup or invasion, and he wants them to know that the range of potential outcomes includes some really unpleasant ones.
  • KGIII 9y ago
    If you ever get to go to SK, you may notice that the average citizen doesn't really fear NK. Why? Because they have been subjected to this for a long time. Hell, in the past decade, NK has sent a threat to SK - by fax. In other words, it's pretty reasonable to believe this is just Un trying to rile people up until someone sends them some more aid. As we haven't sent any, the behavior gets more and more outlandish. Inside the Hermit Kingdom, I'm pretty sure the leaders are well aware of the futility of actual war. Mr. Un is just doing what his father and grandfather have done. They are basically screaming until mommy buys them some candy.
    • ddoolin 9y ago
      When writing Korean names, like Chinese and probably others, the last name comes first, and more often than not that holds true when they're written in English, too. So his last name is Kim and his given name is Jong-Un. Separating the two syllables of the given name makes no sense, as in "Mr. Un". Mr. Jong-Un would be more appropriate, but Mr. Kim would be even more appropriate, as in Korean you don't refer to someone as "Mr. GivenName".
      • KGIII 9y ago
        Thanks. I will keep that in mind for the future, however. Mr. Kim has a nice ring to it. Edited because I read your post more carefully.
      • LyndsySimon 9y ago
• jamestimmins 9y ago
  You may be interested in the novel Fail Safe, which is about exactly this issue during the cold war. What happens when you've built extremely complex technological failsafes around your nuclear arsenal to prevent error, and suddenly they fail. How do various nations and actors respond. Very solid read. https://www.amazon.com/Fail-Safe-Eugene-Burdick/dp/088001654X https://www.amazon.com/Fail-Safe-Eugene-Burdick/dp/088001654...
  • neilellis 9y ago
    Right, thanks for the push. Going to watch the movie now. FYI: Both the film Fail-Safe and 'Dr Strangelove' are based on that book.
    • knorker 9y ago
      No, Dr Strangelove was based on "Red Alert". See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove#Fail_Safe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove#Fail_Safe
  • artur_makly 9y ago
    full movie : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Nzij8x-604 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Nzij8x-604
• colanderman 9y ago
  North Korea is absolutely at, or very near, a strategic position wherein attacking better-armed foes is a winning strategy. Consider: 1. NK's economy is in shambles. The regime has almost nothing to lose. 2. NK's regime does not care about human life (as evidenced by abuses against the people of NK). They would have no qualms about killing many many foreign civilians. 3. NK's populace/military would either not know about such an attack, would be convinced by state media that it was a justified attack on a military target, or would not be in a position to do anything about it. 4. Every country which NK has threatened (US, Japan, SK) is in all ways the opposite of the above: economically robust; government/military respecting of human life (of course there is room for debate there); populace respecting of human life and wary of war. That means that any attack from NK against one of the above countries plays out as follows: 1. NK obliterates a population center. It has now demonstrated a capable threat. 2. NK makes demands (food, money, land, autonomy, whatever). 3. Victim country (say Japan) can either retaliate with precision strikes, retaliate in kind, retaliate with massive force, do nothing, or give in to demands. 3.a. Retaliating with precision strikes takes too long. NK launches another devastating attack. It is clearly not an option for the victim to lose another population center. 3.b. Retaliating in kind would be unacceptable to the government and populace of the victim country and the world at large. And if it were, it would not be worth the chance of a second attack from NK. 3.c. Retaliating with massive force (the "Trump" option) is absolutely not an option. Like the previous response, it would be completely unacceptable to the rest of the world, but most importantly, you would now be in a war with China who has to contend with a flood of refugees from a destroyed country. 3.d. Do nothing. Another city gets destroyed. NK is desperate, and there are lots of cities it can blow up until it gets its way. 3.e. Give in to demands. This is the only outcome that is all-around tenable. NK is happy, and further massive loss of human life is prevented. NK is in an even better position if they can win their demands by merely demonstrating capability of destroying – or accidentally destroying – a city (e.g. by launching missiles over Japan), because they can repeat that trick more frequently than by actually destroying a city.
  • maxerickson 9y ago
    I've wondered if the best strategy might be to flood them with material goods. Just an absolute torrent of everything they could want. Or maybe do insane things like put really nice billion dollar ships offshore and blow them up once a month. Somehow demonstrate the asymmetry to a larger portion of the population.