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The Best Thing That Can Happen to Electric Cars Is What Happened to 1990s PCs
- emodendroket 9y agoIt'd be cool but what's the incentive for any of the manufacturers to do this?
- bryanlarsen 9y agoAFAICT, the car makers outsource most of their components to companies like Bosch, Denso, Magna & Delphi. Standardization would allow car makers to avoid single-supplier lock-in. Standardization would allow parts makers to expand their markets.
- emodendroket 9y agoYeah, but surely selling those parts to consumers/shops (or just forcing them to come into authorized service centers) has some economic benefit they'd be loath to give up.
- RealityVoid 9y agoFor what is' worth, I get a feeling part makers, the big ones, are content with the market as it is. They are horribly inefficiend and morally outdated and still make heaps and heaps of money.
- HeyLaughingBoy 9y agoI don't think any part of that last sentence is true...
- emodendroket 9y agoI feel like somebody is making money from crazy expensive OEM parts.
- HeyLaughingBoy 9y agoMaking money? Yes. Making heaps and heaps of money? Probably not. Expensive parts are usually expensive for a good reason. Typical reasons are: time consuming to build; tiny market, so costs are spread over a small number of orders; materials are expensive and cost of mistakes is high; overhead is high because of the loans on expensive machinery and supplies & power to keep them running; combinations of the above! Having talked to people in the automotive supply industry, it's a low-margin, cutthroat way to make money. Not a whole lot of people getting rich making auto parts. At least not in the lower tiers.
- RealityVoid 9y agoMaybe it was an exaggeration from my part with the heaps of money. I don't do budgets, I write software, but I've seen the price the parts we're building come with and I have an ideea what it's worth. I just feel that the way they approach the problem is very inefficient, they could do things better cheaper, more reliable if they had a better approach, but thye don't and I feel, compared to other markets, the presults are very expensive relative to what they deliver.
- pdelbarba 9y agoDoes anyone have any history on what motivated the industry to commoditize PC hardware? The current trend is in the opposite direction, with apple going back to proprietary components and the mobile phone/tablet market is moving further and further from user serviceable designs. Unless there's some economic driver (being able to source from more suppliers?) I don't see this happening.
- JustSomeNobody 9y agoThis may help: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Personal_Computer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Personal_Computer
- combatentropy 9y agoThanks. Shouldn't the clickbait headline to the longwinded article say "1980s"?
- jhbadger 9y agoNo, because it isn't really talking about the actual IBM PC (which was decidedly not a cheap commodity or modular to any real degree), but the PC clones of the 1990s which were. Although to argue with the article, while cheap and modular PCs were great for the consumer, they weren't great for the producers, ultimately leading to IBM itself exiting the PC market due to low margins. So I doubt Tesla et al, want to go down that route.
- mikestew 9y agoI don't understand your question. The original IBM PC was built using as many commercial, off-the-shelf parts as possible in order to shorten time-to-market. The hardware was commoditized from day one, by design.
- pdelbarba 9y agoI'm asking how commoditized hardware come to be over earlier computers with non COTS parts. If this is the first modular computer, why was all that hardware on the shelves in the first place?
- hunterjrj 9y agoI'm kinda-sorta excited by the author's idea, but there are (at least) three major differences facing a would-be do-it-yourselfer between an automobile and a 1990s-era PC that should temper his optimism: 1. For many people, their automobile is their primary mode of transportation. Tinkering with it and potentially making it unavailable for use is not something many will risk. 2. There is a clear difference in tooling requirements between popping in a shiny 14.4k model (90s era, after all) and swapping out a piece of drive train. 3. Component cost
- tekromancr 9y agoI don't buy 1 for a minute. Enthusiasts have been tinkering with cars much, much longer than people have had computers to tinker with.
- ethbro 9y agoIt's true if you're only exposed to places where people think of cars as disposable and don't have machine shops and warehouse space available (read: cities and suburbs). Venture out into more rural environs, on the other hand, and you'll see what an enterprising individual can do with a large air compressor, some air tools, and a stick welder.
- coredog64 9y ago> 2. There is a clear difference in tooling requirements between popping in a shiny 14.4k model (90s era, after all) and swapping out a piece of drive train. You'd be surprised at how easy it is to swap out weird and wonderful drivetrain parts [0]. People put water-cooled drivetrains into vehicles that were originally air-cooled. People put GM V8s into foreign cars that only ever had small V6s or inline 6s. There's a burgeoning industry in creating swap kits for putting EV drivetrains into cars as well [1]. It's mostly settling on standardized components. [0] http://www.engineswapdepot.com/ http://www.engineswapdepot.com/ [1] http://www.evwest.com/catalog/index.php?cPath=40 http://www.evwest.com/catalog/index.php?cPath=40
- dsp1234 9y ago
- mzakharo1 9y agoSafety, risk of losing lives, is a factor missing from the constraints imposed on PC manufacturers. Safety may play a larger role as an obstacle on this idea getting real traction.
- mi100hael 9y agoThat factor is already imposed on individual auto manufacturers. If anything, standardized part designs would probably increase safety and lower manufacturer risk.
- emodendroket 9y agoI don't see how designing cars in such a way that, say, batteries are interchangeable would compromise safety.
- acuozzo 9y agoThe problem is that far too many people don't do product research beyond "Does it fit?". I've seen a good amount of destroyed audio equipment resulting from the owner failing to do compatibility research beyond verifying that two components could be connected together. "What's an ohm? Do I need one of those?" I've seen people get the most baffled faces from not being able to pass a high bandwidth signal through the hundreds of feet of hilariously thin uncertified HDMI cable that they just ran through their walls. "But the box said high speed!" Interchangeable batteries in cars would mean that drivers are only one el cheapo Amazon third party generic out-of-spec "compatible" battery away from stopping at a red light next to a moving bomb.
- emodendroket 9y agoI don't see how this is any different from now when any yahoo can buy car parts from wherever and try installing them.
- acuozzo 9y agoI suppose it depends on how easy it is to change. When I read "interchangeable batteries" I imagine a pretty simple procedure: open hatch, pop out old battery, put in new battery, close hatch. When I read "install car parts" I imagine a procedure at least an order of magnitude more difficult requiring knowledge and experience working on automobiles. Changing batteries is a task nearly all people have done at least once by the time they start driving. If changing the batteries in your car is as easy as changing the AAs in your Game Boy then I imagine many people would be willing to do it without thinking twice.
- JustSomeNobody 9y agoPeople have in some ways been talking about this for quite some time. I think I remember reading something about having hot swappable batteries about a decade ago. This way you drive up to a station, it lifts your vehicle into the air, robots swap out your battery with another, fully charged one, and you're off again. I can't image Tesla, GM or anyone else getting on board with the idea though. Much less extending it to include other parts.
- ferongr 9y agoThe issue I think is that battery packs are designed as stressed members of the unibody to save space and weight, so they can't be made universal without compromising on capacity and weight. With frequent replacement you'd run into problems with fasteners and threads and liability issues in case of incorrect assembly.
- emodendroket 9y ago> liability issues in case of incorrect assembly How is this different from a car today? If you go to replace the brakes and you do it wrong it would be unsafe too.
- ferongr 9y agoGenerally, you only do brake-jobs one every some 10s of thousands of miles, while battery replacements would be not only more often but also performed at "charging stations" that would probably employ less skilled persons ("It's only 20 bolts")
- emodendroket 9y agoI don't know that battery replacements would be that frequent, nor do I think gas station mechanics are unheard of now.
- jdlshore 9y agoTesla actually had a pilot battery swap station, usable by regular Tesla Model S drivers (by invite only). They shut it down, though. http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-shuts-down-battery-swap-program-for-superchargers/ http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-shuts-down-battery-swap-progr...
- tyingq 9y ago400 volts at 60 amps floating around in there though.
- madengr 9y agoAt least the charging ports are standardized, somewhat. Remember when car stereos used to be a standard size (DIN chassis), and you could easily swap in new hardware? That went away with the advent of nav systems. Stuff is now too intertwined to be standardized.
- marcosdumay 9y agoAt least around here, that went away because thieves wouldn't go after non-standard stereos, so people wanted the non-standard ones.
- vvanders 9y agoIt's a nice dream but I'd probably look to what's been happening in the Cell Phone/Laptop space instead. Weight and therefore efficiency is at a premium for EVs so deep vertical integration will probably be preferred method of assembly.
- squarefoot 9y agoFrom the article: "I want a future where someone can go to a junkyard and yank a motor from a Tesla Model H (you know, the one with the T-top) and plan to pop it into their Reatta EV knowing that the connections will fit. " Good luck with that, and it has nothing to do with safety since even safety can be standardized: there are no chances one can stick a HP cartridge into an Epson printer; cars are no different. The tap based economics we live in is based exactly on the opposite: find a potential source of revenue, then once you have got/patented/bought it, close it behind a faucet and start asking money to open it. Openness would destroy that practice, and the legal system in every "western" country fights to enforce this exact behaviour. Also, being called a communist after decades of well crafted negative propaganda doesn't help.
- Animats 9y ago"I want a future where someone can go to a junkyard and yank a motor from a Tesla Model H (you know, the one with the T-top) and plan to pop it into their Reatta EV knowing that the connections will fit." There's no market for that capability in cars. Some heavy trucks do have it; you can buy some heavy trucks and put in a Cummins or Caterpillar Diesel engine. But for smaller cars, it's not worth the headaches. Powertrain switches are not impossible. A routine student exercise in serious automotive schools is to put an engine and transmission from one car into another car, making the necessary parts. Stanford and Renovo put an electric powertrain into a DeLorean and made it capable of autonomous drifting.[1] Even in PCs, there's no market for that. 80% of desktop PCs are never opened during their operating life, and the fraction for laptops is probably lower. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNIDcT0Zdj4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNIDcT0Zdj4
- LeifCarrotson 9y ago> there are no chances one can stick a HP cartridge into an Epson printer This is true, but printers are among the most poorly standardized items of PC hardware. There is a very good chance that you can remove a motherboard, processor, RAM stick, hard drive, graphics card, power supply, fan, or case from one computer manufacturer and use it with another. And while I agree that our economic system isn't helping in several ways, IBM PC standardization happened much closer in time to the red scare than anything EV related.
- payne92 9y agoNice concept, BUT, when cars fail, people are hurt and/or lose jobs because they can't reliably make it to work. Cars are two orders of magnitude more expensive than PCs, and are not surfing Moore's law.
- emodendroket 9y agoI'm not sure I see why interchangeable parts talking to each other using a standard interface means "unsafe."
- pwthornton 9y agoThis is the worst of the technological glibness from "car guys." Modern cars are incredibly sophisticated devices with many different computer systems running a lot of code. They all run real time OSes, which are quite distinct from an operating system like Windows. They have to do their functions correctly 100% of the time. Now cars are getting tons and tons of sensors. RADAR, LIDAR, visual cameras, etc., all running sophisticated algorithms. There are massive safety reasons (not just to yourself, but to your fellow man) to not tinkering with these systems. I know a lot of car guys lament that it's harder to work on a car today, but your average consumer is delighted by this. Cars are much more reliable today than they were before. Most people don't want the freedom to work on a car that constantly needs to be worked on because it is always breaking. They want something that is reliable and with minimal maintenance just works every single day. Cars are also much safer, with much more robust safety technology. I'm a fan of Jalopnik, and I like to stay up on the latest in car technology, but my interest is from an average user standpoint. Electric cars with self-driving technology is really exciting. I'm excited for this future. I'm going to support it. I don't need a car to tinker with for my everyday needs, nor do the vast majority of people. If I want a car to tinker with, I'll get a project car for track use.
- RealityVoid 9y ago> Modern cars are incredibly sophisticated devices with many different computer systems running a lot of code. They all run real time OSes, which are quite distinct from an operating system like Windows. They have to do their functions correctly 100% of the time. Now cars are getting tons and tons of sensors. RADAR, LIDAR, visual cameras, etc., all running sophisticated algorithms. While that is true, PC's were very sophisticated back in the day also. We're at a different level of sofistication currently, but I feel like that sophistication can be abstracted away. After all, currently you plug a GPU card, an incredibly sofisticated piece of technology in your PC, and it mostly just works. Why sould it not be the same for cars? I say this as someone currently writing firmware for cars and wondering why this does not happen. Mechanical complexity is one reason, but once that goes away, what's to stop us then? Maybe just the power of habbit.
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- yuhong 9y agoI should also mention highway guardrails, where incompatiblity can harm people: http://kdvr.com/2016/11/22/colorado-inspecting-every-guardrail-system-for-installation-errors/ http://kdvr.com/2016/11/22/colorado-inspecting-every-guardra...
- internalfx 9y agoThe comments here seem pretty anti-build-your-own. I really hope people don't start legislating that you can't build your own car. I build personal electric vehicles now, and I have aspirations of building a car. I hope legislators don't derail me.
- ams6110 9y ago> it’s already being realized that electric drivetrains are becoming something of a commodity, and not the huge differentiator that drivetrains are in ICE cars There's a big difference between the drivetrain in a Tesla and a Leaf. Even if there weren't, I don't agree with the premise. The basic ICE engine and drivetrain in a car is not a differentiator either, at least as far as normal "family" cars are concerned.
- shostack 9y agoThis article seems to start with what may end up being a false assumption. Namely that we will own cars as individuals vs. renting them from a subscription service. We see where Tesla is going with that, and I guarantee others are considering the same approach. And to a degree, it makes some sense. Of course "owning a car" is a concept that is deeply engrained in American culture and society. So those who grew up with that will likely lament or fight its loss. Even people like myself who understand the massive benefits to the environment, safety, traffic, economy etc. will still miss the feel of driving down a windy mountain road. But those who will grow up in a world of self-driving cars? They largely won't care. That time will be freed up for being on their mobile devices, chatting with friends, sleeping, or doing whatever else it is they would do with that time back. Depending on how our economy goes, it could also make less and less sense to own as has been the trend for a bit now. If you live in a dense urban area, there's a decent chance today that you already decided to forego owning a car in favor of public transit, car sharing services, or ride sharing like Uber/Lyft because of the costs. So in a world where reliable, well-paying employment is harder to come by, and cost of living increases are outpacing wage increases, owning a car might just not be as much of a necessity. That of course brings its own set of issues when everything becomes a subscription or on-demand services with regards to lock-in, privacy, monopolies, etc., but that's another debate.
- emodendroket 9y agoA network of rental self-driving cars? Isn't this just a more wasteful version of buses?
- zardo 9y agoNo. Unless the bus in your town picks you up wherever you are and takes you directly where you want to go.
- emodendroket 9y agoIt seems like it would be way less wasteful for these cars to take you to a hub and then you ride a bus then just having them operate a car the whole way through. I mean, hell, put privacy booths in the bus if you want.
- squozzer 9y agoThis isn't a bad idea. Beyond the concerns raised by other commenters, building a personal car from commodity components may not happen because we'll no longer own cars, but instead subscribe to a transportation service. The cost of which might depend heavily upon the cost and serviceability of the service provider's fleet. If your market doesn't mind riding around in automotive version of a no-name PC, the Lego approach might work very well.
- itomato 9y agoThere are parallels with what has happened with Kit Cars since The Fuel Crisis, at least. You could build one today with plans from a Popular Mechanics if inclined. What we have today with tech advancents, build-out of infrastructure and acceptance of the technology seems to have little impact on that "kit" approach. I think a better analogy might be the Pre-War Automobile Coach-builder. The body was made by a different company than the drive train. Economies of scale and the demand for cars changed that. A new class of Automobile could arise if a company could farm styling out to a famous house; Ghia for example, build a body from that design, and have an opportunity to provide interior fitment and design to the degree of Bentley and Rolls Royce, or down-spectrum toward Kia and Suzuki. In any case, we're likely to see eddies like Water-cooled, UV-reactive power converters and fiberglass monstrosities as seen at a 1970's Autorama.
- notadoc 9y agoBecome cheap, widely adopted, and commodified? Or become big heavy unwieldy pieces of plastic loaded with stickers and coming with a large tech spec sheet?
- lazyjones 9y agoYMMV, but I don't want the average car owners to replace their hardware with whatever they found on Aliexpress, especially if those cars are supposed to drive autonomously at some point.