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UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election
- samdoidge 9y agoSmart timing from May - this will be devastating for Corbyn. Current polling: CON 43, LAB 25 [1] Conservatives won the 2015 Election polling at 34% [2]. [1] https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9828 https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9828 [2] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opini...
- hacker_9 9y agoToo bad polls haven't been accurate for a while now.
- samdoidge 9y agoAs someone who made money betting on a Trump victory - certain topics / polls. Calling Brexit / Trump voters racist leads to a certain % of the population not disclosing their vote, oversampling of Democrats was another issue in the US polls.
- ZeroGravitas 9y agoThat not what oversampling means. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/25/oversampling-is-used-to-study-small-groups-not-bias-poll-results/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/25/oversampling...
- samdoidge 9y agoI'm aware of what oversampling means. I was listing the 'hidden vote' and oversampling as a reason.
- ZeroGravitas 9y agoThat still makes no sense.
- samdoidge 9y agoCan you elaborate on what doesn't make sense?
- ZeroGravitas 9y agoOversampling is a standard thing to do with polling. There's a confused conspiracy theory that it means "adding extra votes to the Democrat column". This doesn't even stand up to the most cursory of examinations, as if that was really happening then people would say "they're intentionally fudging the results to favor the Democrats" and kick up a fuss about it. Instead they say "oversampling Democrats", in the hope that people who don't know what that is will think it sounds like cheating while not actually looking like idiots to people who do know what it means. A classic dogwhistle approach to say two things to two audiences. You claim to know what it is, yet you say it's an "issue" (which it isn't) and you say that at the end of a sentence claiming that there's a "shy voter" factor leading to an undercount of Trump support. Oversampling has no logical connection here unless you mean it in the "Democrats are cheating in the polls" meaning. You claim that you mean it in the actual statistical meaning. The two obvious explanations are that you don't know what it is and have been fooled by all the chatter around it, or that you're trying to fool others despite knowing it's nonsense. I think you don't know what it is, that's why I provided the explanatory link a couple of comment above. Also, the polls did not materially undercount Trump voters. The polls were more accurate than at the last election. Some people badly mapped the accurately predicted 3 million popular vote win to electoral college results, but that's a different thing than polls being bad, Trump voters not wanting to admit who they were voting for, or being intentionally skewed. On a state by state basis polls were wrong in both directions, for various reasons, but that cancelled out overall.
- samdoidge 9y agoOk, so when you were telling me 'that's not what oversampling means', you meant 'I disagree with what you are saying'. I would be more inclined to debate if you approached the disagreement in a more open fashion. Your partisan paragraphs further make me think I will be wasting my time here, so let's just say we have different views on the polls :).
- JCzynski 9y agoPolls were accurate in both those cases. Media coverage of them was wrong, but the polls were right.
- anoonmoose 9y agoBrexit was too close to call and Hillary won the popular vote so it ain't like things in the polling world are all that wild.
- pmyteh 9y agoPolling is hard; there are lots of ways for polls to be inaccurate (see the British Polling Council postmortem of the last general election for the gory details). Those errors don't add up to 20 points. And I say that as a card-carrying member of the Labour party.
- easytiger 9y agoThat's not true. Last Uk election was very close and that was reflected in the polls. Same with brexit.
- steanne 9y ago...but she's gonna refuse scotland the chance for a quick referendum to get THEIR house in order before the brexit?
- sir_throwaway 9y agoMost Scots are against a second referendum, and against independence [1]. May is just giving them what they want. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_indep...
- d4rti 9y agoIf we are citing polls now then most brits were against brexit.
- RugnirViking 9y agoAs if the UK needed more political turmoil.
- chrisseaton 9y agoI think the point is to resolve some of the turmoil and get a new government in place with a new mandate.
- bogle 9y agoI'll lay odds that Scotland at least will not be giving that mandate. Currently the Conservaties have 1 out of 59 MPs in Westminster from north of the border. Of course, that's irrelevant as the Tories can simply continue to completely ignore Scotland.
- headmelted 9y agoAnd Northern Ireland. We're still here too. .. Not that you'd know as you never call or write anymore. :'-(
- grey-area 9y agoHow likely do you think the unification of Ireland is now and after brexit if a hard border is imposed? Has sentiment shifted in that debate?
- SpeakMouthWords 9y agoVery much still a meme at this point
- grey-area 9y agoWhy do you think it is unrealistic (asking as an outsider to NI and Eire)? I mean on a timescale of decades of course, not in a few years.
- woodylondon 9y agoI knew I should have put a bet on this, we were never going to leave Europe. Which ever parties manifesto says stay in Europe will win - end of story.
- davzie 9y agoYou gotta get out of that echo chamber mate.
- noja 9y agoMaybe he does, but at 48% of those who voted it's not much of an echo chamber.
- davzie 9y agoYes but this is a general election where we're voting for a party, not pro or anti-Brexit. I despise the conservatives, but I support Brexit. So I'm certainly not voting for the lib dems. I actually like every single Liberal Democrat policy besides their hard-line on doing everything they can to ignore the result of the referendum. It's a shame because I don't feel like labour are in a position to really take the country forward right now.
- tonyedgecombe 9y agoGeneral elections are won in the centre ground, you might be in for some disappointment.
- Pamar 9y agoIf this had been the plan, she should have indicted the elections before triggering Article 50 (http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2017-03-29/ http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2017-03-29/).
- davidgerard 9y agoHope hasn't had a very good track record in the last year or so.
- s_kilk 9y agoMay's reasoning is basically that there is an opposition now, and that there should not be. The thought of indefinite unopposed Tory rule is sickening.
- growse 9y agoI think her reasoning is more around the fact that there isn't any effective opposition now, so might as well lock in another 5 years.
- tonyedgecombe 9y agoI suspect it is more about the next election, she doesn't want it just after brexit completes.
- talktime 9y agoThe majority of the English like strong, essentially unopposed governance. They like be to be able to choose the g'vner occasionally, but they don't want multiple powerful factions.
- clearly 9y agoDo we?
- talktime 9y agoNot all of us, but the majority of us do.
- irb 9y agoI think that the majority of the country is generally less comfortable with the idea of coalitions/minority governments/power sharing than many other parliamentary democracies where those things happen more regularly. Consider the run-up to the 2015 GE when it looked like Labour/Lib Dems/SNP might be able to form a majority coalition even though the Conservatives were likely to be the largest party - there was a lot of sneering at the idea of a "coalition of the losers". That circumstance arises quite frequently and is largely accepted in many other countries, as can be seen from the results of Denmark's recent elections.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- headmelted 9y agoActually this is just good business for the Tories, and I've long expected it. The opposition is in disarray under Corbyn, and our prime minister has never won an election. This is as easy a victory as Theresa May will ever be able to bank on, and legitimises her leadership in the eyes of a large section of the public. She can also claim (maybe rightly so) that she has the undisputed majority support of the public for whatever terms she gets for a hard Brexit from the EU. In short; we're screwed.
- wsc981 9y agoI think the UK will be fine, post Brexit, as the UK is a very important trading partner for The Netherlands, Denmark & Ireland. These countries don't want harsh punishments for the UK (as Brussels seems intent on) and they want little trade barriers: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/792782/EU-rebellion-Bloc-members-alliance-Brussels-secure-post-Brexit-trade-deal http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/792782/EU-rebellion-Bloc...
- hazza1 9y agoYou can't use the Express as a source, it's not a creditable newspaper and has it's own agenda here.
- sir_throwaway 9y agoYet the main article is from The Guardian...
- hazza1 9y agoI'm not debating the fact that a general election has been called as the Guardian has reported.
- willyt 9y agoYour comment is over simplistic because many reputable news outlets are reporting the hard observable fact that a general election has been called. Therefore the fact that the Guardian is a source for this is irrelevant. A single newspaper, The Daily Express is reporting comments made by a single Danish MEP, who could be from some mad fringe party for all we know, as if this is the official policy of four nation states. Therefore the Express article is mostly speculation based on a secondary source of information; a person whose personal agenda and relation to the Danish Government's official foreign policy is unknown.
- louisswiss 9y agoPM Theresa May on her reasoning for the snap election: "In recent weeks Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union. "The Liberal Democrats said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill. "The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain's membership of the European Union. "And un-elected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. "If we do not hold a general election now, their political game playing will continue." -------- I for one hope their 'political game playing' will only intensify in the future. After all, it's their job to provide opposition. Dark and scary times indeed.
- trollied 9y agoTheresa May, 6 months ago: "“I’m not going to be calling a snap election. I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability, to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020.”"
- cm2187 9y agoCalling an election is dark and scary times?
- blowski 9y agoDemocracy is about more than one party winning a popular vote.
- TheOtherHobbes 9y agoThis is the last chance the UK has to avoid fascism. I wish that was hyperbole. But I really don't think it is.
- NetStrikeForce 9y agoI hear you. You even see people openly embracing Enoch Powell's ideas again. Brexit and Trump removed the taboo on fascism and those long time closeted fascists are now very openly pushing their propaganda. The rest of us are too busy defending their right to destroy our society and our values.
- Slamchunk 9y agoWorst possible timing, who do I vote for? I live in a tory safe seat currently.
- mocko 9y agoHave you considered spoiling your ballot paper?
- vjvj 9y agoWhat effect does this have? AFAIK spoiled ballot papers counts are not announced at all (or not very widely if they are) so what's the point?
- chrisseaton 9y ago> spoiled ballot papers counts are not announced at all That's not true. Returning officers announce the number of rejected ballot papers, and explain why they were rejected, at the same time as this winner is announced. For example: https://youtu.be/jbDgT3b-M44?t=117 https://youtu.be/jbDgT3b-M44?t=117
- tonyedgecombe 9y agoMost people who don't vote do so out of laziness, by spoiling your ballet paper you can refute that.
- DanBC 9y agoEither register for a vote-swap site, or if the second place runner is paletable to you campaign and vote for them. But yes, I agree it sucks.
- iaskwhy 9y agoVote swapping is possible, there was at least a major platform for the last General Election and it got quite popular. Consider reading about it. A quick Google search found this but I'm sure there's much more than that: http://voteswap.org/ http://voteswap.org/
- 9y ago
- Silhouette 9y agoShe's announced her intention to call a general election. Before it can actually happen, she needs 2/3s of MPs to agree, according to the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Otherwise, it's a five-year term whether the current PM likes it or not. This is an odd one, because if we have the election then it's likely to be a Tory landslide, but the Tories have only a narrow majority in the House of Commons and so need the turkeys to vote for Christmas. On the other hand, Labour is currently led by Jeremy Corbyn, so it's entirely possible that enough of the turkeys will vote for every day of the year to be Christmas.
- tonyedgecombe 9y agoLabour have already announced they will support it.
- thenomad 9y agoI believe Jeremy Corbyn has announced Labour will support it. That's not really the same thing at this point.
- pmontra 9y agoAccording to what I read here the Labour is going to lose many seats. Are those Labour MPs so eager to lose their job? Amazing.
- timrichard 9y agoMore amazing if they voted against an election, with the inevitable implication that the current regime is doing a good job and they don't want to take over right now, thanks all the same for asking.
- nicky0 9y agoThis is why I have always thought the fixed term parliaments act is a nonsense. What opposition would ever vote against the motion to call an election?
- lordnacho 9y ago"Simple" explanation is this: - May isn't going to lose to Corbyn - May has a slim majority, meaning she has to negotiate with people within the Conservative Party who might not agree with her on the Brexit terms. - She'll likely get a larger majority, so it makes it easier to deal with the rebels. - For Corbyn, it's interesting. He might be facing another leadership challenge if polls keep looking crap. - He wants to have an actual attempt at a GE, where he can make his case to the public. - He won the leadership challenge last year, so he knows his fans are at least loyal for now. - Why does Corbyn's opinion matter? Well back when Cameron did a deal with Clegg, they did a fixed terms act, meaning elections had to happen every 5 years. This one is within 5 years of the previous, so you actually need a two-thirds majority in Parliament to trigger it.
- danmaz74 9y agoFrom the Guardian: 30m ago 11:44 Corbyn confirms Labour will vote for early election Jeremy Corbyn has put out this statement about Theresa May’s announcement. I welcome the prime minister’s decision to give the British people the chance to vote for a government that will put the interests of the majority first. Labour will be offering the country an effective alternative to a government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and damaging cuts to our schools and NHS. In the last couple of weeks, Labour has set out policies that offer a clear and credible choice for the country. We look forward to showing how Labour will stand up for the people of Britain. Labour confirms it will vote for early election.
- simonswords82 9y ago> Labour has set out policies that offer a clear and credible choice for the country Has it?? Where exactly? I've not heard a thing from Labour for months
- easytiger 9y agoIncreased taxes for all bastards and increase the deficit at all costs.
- 9y ago
- skdotdan 9y agoSome people criticize May whatever she does. If she calls election, because she wants to destroy opposition or because the election will cause more political instability, and if she doesn't, because she is afraid of democracy or something. Honestly, this makes no sense at all.
- anodin3 9y agoOf course it does... just read this thread. Everybody just wants to stop and destroy the tories because they are the tories and, you know, fuck right-wingers because they are right-wingers and we have to stop conservatives because fuck the tories because they are right-wingers and tories Obviously such mindset has only accelerated the downfall of labour under that spineless sissy Corbyn. And even that they are trying to ruin because now labour guys are antisemitic and pro-brexit and whatever the hell. Tiring, tiring. Politics is getting tiring.
- majortennis 9y agoI criticise her because she relentlessly tried to comply with an american extradition request for a fellow student of mine that had merely made a website.
- Neil44 9y agoExactly. I really wouldn't want her job. Her job description is to fly the plane into the mountain and afterwards be cricified for the outcome. Tactically this is her best move.
- GordonS 9y agoI criticise her because of her strong authoritarian views and desire to turn the UK into an Orwelian nightmare...
- JCzynski 9y agoDon't worry. 4chan has already prepared their opposing-British-Orwellian-government outfits.
- nthcolumn 9y agoShe is really counting on there not being enough time for the opposition to turn this into another vote on Brexit or a vote on Scotland or a vote on the NHS or a vote on all of the above. We live in interesting times.
- Nursie 9y agoIn my fantasy of UK politics, the centre and centre-left parties would form an opposition coalition ahead of the poll, proposing some radical reforms like PR, as well as some socially progressive policies like reigning in the surveillance state, thoroughly reviewing the drug laws, reviewing basic income as an idea and instituting some sort of evidence-basis mandate for law-making. I realise this is a pipe-dream, however.
- majortennis 9y agoi'm with you.
- hacker_9 9y agoNot with Brexit overshadowing everything.
- Nursie 9y agoPerhaps they could oppose that too... Would be an interesting legal position, now article 50 has been notified.
- hacker_9 9y agoThis is effectively what Lib Dems would do, call another EU Referendum. Perhaps the only reason I am considering voting for them, after we've seen at how inept the current govt are at dealing with Brexit.
- davzie 9y agoI think opposing it is a really bad idea. As a supporter of Brexit and someone who actually doesn't like the Conservatives, any party thinking they'll get votes by opposing Brexit will certainly not win them from me. I'll just not vote.
- DonaldFisk 9y agoAbsolutely, though we perhaps disagree on what's meant by "centre" (see Political Compass). The SNP (and the one Green MP) support Basic Income. I think John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, also supports Basic Income, but it's now too short a timescale for Labour to get a policy in place and convince the general public. The Liberal Party supported a variant of it, but the Lib Dems now oppose it.
- iaskwhy 9y agoMy quick (and probably off) analysis: Tories found this timing to be the best one to call an election based on the disarray of UKIP and Labour. Tories are again playing politics, they want to get a good slice of UKIP vote and keep Labour at the current level at best. I believe the only real alternative to another May government is for Lib Dems, Labour, Green, to make a coalition against this Tory initiative. Otherwise, should be an easy win for May.
- hacker_9 9y agoYeah it is a bit dirty, especially when she calls out all the other parties for playing 'political games'.
- hacker_9 9y agoI used to be a Conservative supporter, but now I just look at Westminster and wonder what the hell happened. Didn't David Cameron basically do this very same thing only a year ago? He expected everyone to be with him and vote Remain, and look how that turned out. Now Theresa May is literally following in his footsteps, thinking everyone is on her side. I'm so confused. I'm actually thinking of voting for Lib Dems for the first time in my life, only because they said they'd hold another EU Referendum. And I say this because I honestly don't trust any party actually want's to take us through Brexit anymore, nor will any of them do a good job of it. I feel like a Lib Dem government is currently the best of a bad bunch.
- caoilte 9y agoDon't rule out the very real possibility that this is about heading off the unprecedented police investigation that could lead to twenty Conservative MPs (larger than their working majority) being sent to prison. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-election-scandal-victory-2015-expenses https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-el...
- tonyedgecombe 9y agoUnless those MPs don't stand again that problem still stands. Also it seems extremely unlikely anybody will go to prison.
- hackerboos 9y agoThe great thing about a GE is that the media forgets about the election expenses scandal. Only those of us that follow Michael Crick on Twitter are kept up to date.
- pmyteh 9y agoIt's very unlikely that anybody would go to prison, even if the charges were proved. What this will do is remove any risk of the tainted elections being voided, resulting in a string of difficult by-elections.
- johnlbevan2 9y agoA useful article to those who think "aside from saying 'Brexit means brexit' a lot, what has Theresa May done since taking power?": http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-first-100-days-prime-minister-in-power-rated-successes-failures-nhs-refugees-a7371471.html http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-first... NB: The article's from October 2016 so slightly dated, but still useful
- gpvos 9y agoSo... how big is the chance that the LibDems will promise to try to reverse Brexit, or at least go for the softest possible Brexit, and everyone who wants to remain votes for them, and they would get 51%, or at least enough to force a coalition government? Probably zero, especially given the weirdo FPTP system, but I'm curious anyway.
- golergka 9y agoIf you don't like the idea of an election because your preferred party is going to loose, democracy isn't for you.
- pluma 9y agoConspiracy theory: May expects the Art 50 talks to not go well and having the election after Brexit has fully played out over the next two years will damage her approval rate. Having the election now means she doesn't have to worry about her approval throughout the negotiations and won't have to face an election right at the time the consequences of Brexit are felt by most voters.
- IshKebab 9y agoThat's less of a conspiracy and more of an obvious observation.
- alkonaut 9y agoLibDems/Labour should just go into these elections saying "we'll keep the kingdom together". I think there is a fair chunk of people who voted leave who didn't actually realize they were voting for England and Wales to leave Scotland and Northern Ireland, rather than voting for the UK to leave the EU. If Labour and LibDems play their cards right, couldn't they make these elections about the mandate for Conservatives the break the United Kingdom apart, rather than a mandate to negotiate with the EU. Under those circumstances: how big an upset is needed for the election results to be seen as a complete disqualification of the Brexit vote?
- Nursie 9y agoAll parties will say that though. Plus it's not clear the Scots would actually vote to leave and the talk about NI leaving the UK is nonsense. They voted, narrowly, to remain in the EU. Not to remain in the EU even if that meant leaving the UK.
- alkonaut 9y ago> All parties will say that though. I don't think conservatives say that "We aren't leaving if Scotland or Northern ireland poll even close to 50% for leaving the UK in order to remain in the EU after a brexit vote". That would have been useful information before the referendum. > it's not clear the Scots wouldnactually vote Exactly, it's very uncertain. And having a referendum with that uncertainty was very strange. And if it does become clear that the leave vote actually did break up the UK, then the consequences should (and could!) have been known to voters in the referendum.
- Nursie 9y agoAll parties will indeed say that they are pro-union and that they will do what they can to keep things together. Making promises on EU membership based on ideas about union seems unwarranted though - we have no idea what the result of polls would be where it is explicit that the choice is between UK and EU membership. Nor do the respective parties know that "Stay in the EU outside of the UK" is even an option - Scotland is likely to have multiple years as part of neither one while it establishes an economic track record and a stable set of government institutions.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]