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>So if technological change were going to cause elimination of jobs, one presumes we would have seen it by now. ...considering this statement was delivered whi
by 6stringmerc 10y ago
>So if technological change were going to cause elimination of jobs, one presumes we would have seen it by now.
...considering this statement was delivered while the US Workforce Participation is at 30+ year lows while productivity and technological change has made significant inroads during that time (ex: Macintosh 512k vs. iPhone 7), I think he's missing a large chunk of the, uh, big picture.
Then, contrast one of his well reasoned and very telling thoughts about the future:
>All of a sudden you can have the idea that an hour-long commute is actually a big perk because instead of driving and having to sit and focus and lurch through traffic, what if your car is a rolling living room? What if you get to spend that hour playing with your kid or reading the news or watching TV or actually working because you don’t have to worry about driving?
Because in the United States, we should be working even while we are getting to work, because we don't work enough? SMDH. To me, the Working Class has plenty of reason to be cynical about this vision of the future..."playing with your kids in the car" time or not.
- sjg007 10y agoYeah, the problem is you still spend an hour in the car away from your family and friends. Are you taking your kid to work, or dropping them off somewhere (school?).. most kids go to their neighborhood school... I mean self driving cars will be great but the work commute will still be like taking the train. For that 1 hour long commute you can't work on your house, do chores, be present at home... A 10 minute walk or short drive is still far better. However, these commutes should get shorter just because the cars will drive better and maybe at higher speeds. Most people commuting are those with families who live further out for less cost and/or more house because they have families.
- bredren 10y agoThis commute thing is a big deal. Changing the way it feels to commute and what you can do while in motion will reduce housing pressure in urban places and has the potential to lift up previously rural communities. His quotes are more like anecdotal illustrations to a bigger point.
- TarpitCarnivore 10y agoBut why not encourage people to build offices closer to these rural places or places in need up an uptick (Cleveland, Detroit, etc)? Why is the solution always to commute into cities?
- goseeastarwar 10y agoDensity allows communities to be more efficient.
- TarpitCarnivore 10y agoAnd there's a lot of room in some of these mid-west cities and rural areas. It allows for cheaper COL and better space to build. The density will come if the business is there to support it.
- weaksauce 10y agoIt will likely be a race to the bottom where it's expected that you work during your commute as well pushing the urban sprawl further and further away from the main cities. This will be exacerbated by the fact that jobs are going to be more and more scarce with the impending automation of most things.
- taysic 10y agoI have a really hard time believing that jobs will be scarce. There are always new things to build - always new things that people want. People will come up with new products no one ever knew they needed but want - and need to hire people to come up with building something that can't be automated out of the box. I don't think there will be a problem for white collar workers or technical workers at all. Not sure about blue collar workers - I mean you always hear about how there is a shortage of people who are skilled in construction or whatnot. Will that be automated soon? I would be surprised. If not, perhaps some muscle-requiring jobs might even be more in demand.
- erikpukinskis 10y agoVR with eye contact will end commuting as a standard for information jobs. Eye contact is the main reason why teleconferencing doesn't work.
- eanzenberg 10y agoCool, let's stop progress then cause life was so great in the 1980's with healthcare, communications, science and overall knowledge.
- teej 10y agoThere's a difference between making progress and recognizing the impact on real lives vs naively claiming we haven't seen any negative externalities of technology.
- eanzenberg 10y agoThat's right, everytime there's been progress there have been negative externalities of the tech produced for the progress. It's nearly impossible to have both, ie, progress and no negative consequences. So which would you rather have?
- goatlover 10y agoThis might be unrealistic, but it would be nice if the human race acquired some wisdom at some point instead of just blindly rushing ahead into whatever makes money. Maybe we could lessen the negative consequences with a little bit of restraint and foresight. For example, did nobody stop to ask what would happen to all that non-biodegradable plastic meant to service a disposable economy?
- mistermann 10y agoIs that really true? For example, plumbing.
- eanzenberg 10y agoSure, someone will argue that the outhouse makers are out of business. Or the well makers.
- Neliquat 10y ago
- smacktoward 10y agoWhen he talks about "what if you don't have to worry about driving," what I hear is: what if your car is one more place where we can show you ads? Right now we can't show you ads in your car, of course, because you're in command of two tons of steel moving at high speed, so your attention needs to be fully concentrated on that task. But if the car could drive itself, think of all the ways we could monetize that newly tappable reservoir of attention! It'd be a gold rush! He doesn't say that, of course, because the vision of a world where you can spend your commute playing with your kid is a much easier sell than the vision of a world where your car becomes a kind of rolling Skinner box, with you a literally captive audience (what are you going to do, step out of a moving vehicle?) to be bombarded with messages by the highest bidder. But... yeah.
- exclusiv 10y agoI'm sure people would take an ad-subsidized car (or ride). Nielsen pays people to walk around with radio tracking devices.
- goatlover 10y agoIf you own the car, surely you can install the equivalent of an ad-blocker.
- teddyh 10y agoYour would have to jailbreak your car to do that, of course…
- diminoten 10y agoIsn't it a... good thing, that workforce participation is down, assuming other indicators of economic health are holding steady/increasing steadily? Don't we, some day, want to get workforce participation down to zero, while maintaining other prosperity metrics? Also, I believe the theory is (assuming we even still have 8 hour work days), you work an hour in the car, work 6 at work, work an hour driving home.
- TheOtherHobbes 10y ago>assuming other indicators of economic health are holding steady/increasing steadily? They aren't. Which is a problem.
- losteric 10y agoWe want working hours to shrink not participation.... either see shorter working days or fewer days per week.
- Cpoll 10y ago> Because in the United States, we should be working even while we are getting to work, because we don't work enough? No, because if you work-day was originally 8hrs of work + 2hrs of commute, it's now just 6hrs of work + 2hrs of work.
- exclusiv 10y agoExactly. Although I don't think work in the car would be the same quality - if you use that time to handle emails it could be a big boost to get most emails addressed before you get to the office. I live about 12 miles from my office and going to the office removes about 1.5-2 hrs per day. Getting ready, 30 mins each way. I try to schedule phone calls for my commute but I don't always have calls to handle. I've worked with people with families who commuted 1.5 hrs each way every day. So yes, self-driving cars would impact a lot of people in a positive way if they optimize their workflow.
- ryandrake 10y agoI don't know. I've got a 2 hour commute each way. There's no way a company would accept my rolling in at 10AM and leaving at 4PM just because I'm working from 8-10 and 4-6 in my self-driving car. More than likely, self-driving cars will mean workers are still expected to get their 8-to-6 on-premesis face time, and then use their self-driving time to catch some shut-eye.
- goatlover 10y agoI feel like getting to your job should be part of the job, especially when it becomes possible to do your job on the way.
- graycat 10y ago> I feel like getting to your job should be part of the job I agree: I put 200,000+ miles on each of three cars, mostly commuting to work. Soooo, that was a lot of money, all after tax -- buy the car, usually on time so that there was interest, pay for insurance, fuel, maintenance, tolls, parking. All those expenses should have been pre-tax money, "unreimbursed business expenses" like, say, professional text books at least long were.
- tim333 10y agoThe US Workforce Participation figures have some explanations - more old folks retired, students studying longer and the like rather just tech change. https://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/ https://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-t...
- erikpukinskis 10y ago> >So if technological change were going to cause elimination of jobs, one presumes we would have seen it by now. > ...considering this statement was delivered while the US Workforce Participation is at 30+ year lows w... You cropped out "around the world" which was a prominent prepositional phrase in his sentence.