20 ms·

I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. It'

I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. It's difficult to see very much positive about this move; certainly there will be some benefits, but I expect greatly outweighed by the negatives (which will include higher prices, lower employment and probably lower standards for UK workers - the EU has consistently been the only organisation willing to drag us out of the dark ages).

ForRealsies 10y ago
The EU is a novelty in human history. The desire for independence, for better or worse, is human nature.
- fao_ 10y ago
  I guess only old Welsh people have "human nature" then...
- bryanrasmussen 10y ago
  Right, this is why there have never been empires, kings, large nations or organized groups that have subsumed smaller groups around them, the United States, Great Britain itself, or any organization of peoples greater than just one lone man standing in a field bellowing 'ME!' at the emptiness.
  - coldtea 10y ago
    "Independence" it's not about some lone man bellowing "ME". It's about like-minded people sharing a common culture (as developed historically up to some point), over a hodge podge of states being united by sheer power or top-down dictum. Empires and kings ruled thanks to tons of bloodshed and continued vigilance and stomping of revolts. The "Great Britain" itself is a bad example -- it lost colony after colony due to wars for independence, and even sibling states like England, Ireland and Scotland have either split, or want to split. And of course it took some wars (and a lot of resentment) to bring down the Scottish into the UK's stable for example.
    - sangnoir 10y ago
      > And of course it took some wars (and a lot of resentment) to bring down the Scottish into the UK's stable for example. It looks like it's going to take Brexit for Scotland to leave the UK. Politically, Scotland and England have very little in common yet they are handcuffed together by "sheer power of top-down dictum"
    - untog 10y ago
      > It's about like-minded people sharing a common culture (as developed historically up to some point) But it's that "some point" that makes everything wishy washy. If I'm in favour of Scottish independence I cite common Scottish culture. If I'm in favour of the UK I cite the hundreds of years of shared culture. If I'm in favour of the EU I cite decades of shared culture. None of these are wrong, despite being in clear disagreement with each other. It's just an excuse for people to cite the opinion they already had and make it sound historically relevant. (and of course, has been the reasoning behind anti immigrant sentiment since time immaterial)
      - unethical_ban 10y ago
        Everything is wishy-washy. If you don't believe in complete individual sovereignty (no State) or in complete governmnent ownership and control of all production and thought, then you believe there are lines between individual freedom and societal coherence. So wishy-washy! It's ALWAYS about the line and where it is. I think sharing a language is an important factor in the ability to share culture and values. So I might put the line closer to the UK than to the EU in your example.
      - coldtea 10y ago
        >But it's that "some point" that makes everything wishy washy. If I'm in favour of Scottish independence I cite common Scottish culture. If I'm in favour of the UK I cite the hundreds of years of shared culture. If I'm in favour of the EU I cite decades of shared culture. None of these are wrong, despite being in clear disagreement with each other. Well, it's up to what the majority likes. Everything is wishy-washy in human affairs -- because opinions differ, people value this or that more etc. But in the end, it's also people who get, or should get, to decide what they want to do.
- TeMPOraL 10y ago
  I wonder if the "desire for independence" is simply born out of the usual ingroup/outgroup dynamics - convince people they're being ruled by an outgroup, and suddenly they want to be independent. The problem with this being that group borders are petty flexible and easily manipulated.
  - agumonkey 10y ago
    It's a balance thing, you cannot survive without your environment, but you have to find a suitable one to avoid dying too.
  - coldtea 10y ago
    >The problem with this being that group borders are petty flexible and easily manipulated. Not that flexible -- it takes long, historical processes to change them. People were living within the same "unified" culture, state mandated et al, forced to be together in USSR and Yugoslavia for 50 to 80 years -- and yet those states exploded into multiple national countries as soon as they had the chance. Some borders are organic (based on culture, shared history, geographical boundaries etc) and some are not (based on colonial rules drawing lines in a map which include groups with different cultures which have historically been enemies in the same "country": the British have done this time and again, and is also the most common cause of tension in Africa etc).
    - osullivj 10y ago
      The USSR was a re-implementation of the Tsarist Russian empire by another name. The peoples yoked together in the USSR had been absorbed by Russian expansion in the 18th & 19th centuries. Yugoslavia was a variation on the same theme. The north had been part of the Austro Hungarian Empire, and the south part of the Ottoman Empire.
      - coldtea 10y ago
        That's what I write. Merely getting people to live together under one "union" doesn't mean it will stick, or that they like it, or that they'll identify with it over their prior and existing identities. Nor (as happened in both cases) that they wont split on the first chance they get.
- fredley 10y ago
  Independence from what? Should England be an Independent state? London? The City of London?
  - mpweiher 10y ago
    Kensington and Chelsea. Definitely!
    - louisswiss 10y ago
      Kensington High Street for the inhabitants of Kensington High Street!
      - mpweiher 10y ago
        You can keep your stinkin' High Street. We Chesterton Roadies don't want any part of it!
        g_k_chesterton 10y ago
        "Do you really mean that you are -- God help me! -- a Notting Hill patriot; that you are --?" from The Napoleon of Notting Hill https://books.google.com/books?id=KajPAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA111 https://books.google.com/books?id=KajPAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA111
  - skylan_q 10y ago
    It is a serious question worth asking. To just discard the desire for independence as backwards and stupid is to go too far.
  - stuaxo 10y ago
    There should probably autonomous regions, the West and the North are neglected, they could have their own governments (but still be part of England).
  - dalore 10y ago
    Each British homeowner should be independent. A man's house is his castle. The could all be lords of their own empire but band together when needed to fight common enemies. Perhaps they could all group together money to help pay for common services like roads etc.
- CPLX 10y ago
  It's really not. The American states were a loosely organized confederacy at outset as well. India has multiple languages. And of course the long history of empires, like the Ottoman, or Spanish control of Latin America. Yes they rise and fall, but often over the course of centuries and well out of the observational abilities of the human lifespan. There's nothing inevitable about the EU, in either direction.
  - enraged_camel 10y ago
    America, as well as all empires in history, were created and then kept together via military force. In contrast, the EU started out peacefully as a trade organization. Membership in it is purely voluntary. This makes it quite unique.
    - CPLX 10y ago
      The original decision by the various states to join together was not at all accomplished by armed conquest.
      - 27182818284 10y ago
        >The original decision That's true but blatantly ignores things like, oh, you know the Civil War that tore the US apart
    - dingaling 10y ago
      > Membership in it is purely voluntary. This makes it quite unique. NATO arose from the ashes of conflict but membership is entirely voluntary, and unlike leaving the EU there is no talk of 'punishing' those who no longer wish to remain. For example France left the NATO integrated military structure in 1996 and rejoined in 2009 without penalty.
      - jbmorgado 10y ago
        What exactly are to "punishments" the EU is giving the UK that you are talking about?
- dalore 10y ago
  The USA is a novelty in human history. The desire for independence, for better or worse, is human nature.
- vidarh 10y ago
  I'd say the desire to build empires is a far more dominant part of human history than fights for independence. As for novelty, apart from drawing parallels to the establishment of the US, consider also the African Union. The African Union includes every country on the African continent - 55 of them (as of Morocco joining/rejoining in January), and includes far more people, and is on a course towards similar levels of integration, with several free trade areas established and gradually coalescing, and several monetary unions being used to gradually pare down the number of currencies with the goal of a single African currency. It has a long way to go to reach EU level integration, but considering how bad their starting point was (starting, in the form of the OAU with a continent that still had numerous wars and civil wars and independence struggles), what they've achieved is quite impressive.
  - ForRealsies 10y ago
    >I'd say the desire to build empires is a far more dominant part of human history than fights for independence. Explaining the state of the EU to any politician in the 1940s, the 1840s, or the 1740s would assume Germany is positioning to make a financial conquest of the entire continent.
- ionised 10y ago
  This is a gross oversimplification.
krona 10y ago
> which will include higher prices Interesting. I was in a UK supermarket the other day and the asparagus on offer was from Spain and Mexico. The Mexican variety was cheaper, and just as good. Currently, Mexico pays a 14.4% common external tariff on this product, and it's still cheaper than what the EU (with it's massive array of agricultural subsidy) can produce. I imagine this is just the tip of the iceberg.
- louisswiss 10y ago
  *heart of the iceberg (lettuce) - tip of the asparagus.
- JamesMcMinn 10y ago
  Given that Spain is still recovering from flooding, cold weather and a bunch of other issues [1] that have made growing vegetables impossible in many areas, that's not really a surprise. [1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38666752 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38666752
  - ktzar 10y ago
    That's an article from almost 2 months ago.
    - JamesMcMinn 10y ago
      ...yes, it is. So what? Vegetables don't just magically appear in minutes - they take weeks or months to grow, so bad winter has an effect which can last for most of the year.
  - pvaldes 10y ago
    > Spain is still recovering from flooding This was only in a small part of Spain, mostly turistic. Those places full of english expatriates are always overrepresented in english newspapers IMHO, giving a false impression. It can seem worst that it is also. Free water means literally free money fallen from the sky and of course those big companies have enough muscle and resources to replace the plastic greenhouses and restart quickly. The winter was not particularly hard. I remember a bad couple of weeks. Not much more. A little chill is good for most fruits. Casually, I has aubergines for dining today. It seems that the problem to find spanish vegetables in the market is solved.
bontoJR 10y ago
These are pretty much the same forecasts Switzerland and Norway were supposed to face when they rejected to join the EU... people losing jobs, Swiss Franc falling, export collapsing, etc... well, it went a little bit in a different way. OFC leaving is totally a different thing from not being in at all, but still... there are going to be pro and cons, but the economy will adapt as happened in Switzerland and Norway. Some will gain, some will lose, but the general picture can be valid only in 3-5 years after the Kingdom is out, so not before 2022.
- lhopki01 10y ago
  What? Norway is a member of the EEA and Switzerland has bilateral agreements that come to the same thing. Nothing changed for them they just don't get a say in the rules.
  - TheArcane 10y ago
    And they still have to foot the membership fees.
- hocuspocus 10y ago
  The UK is putting itself in a much tougher situation, this is absolutely not comparable to Switzerland and Norway. And some of the forecasts about Switzerland turned out very real. We have to agree and comply with Europe on most things, without much bargaining power. And the EURCHF swings can literally put businesses to the ground overnight.
  - folli 10y ago
    This could also be construed as the EU acting as a hegemony and abusing their economic power to force smaller countries to accept their terms. The same can be currently observed when some EU exponents demand that the Brits get punished for pulling out.
    - prodmerc 10y ago
      Yeah, no shit, that's the whole point of a strong economic union.
agumonkey 10y ago
It's also a very weakly motivated experiment. At least based on the morning after TV appearance of Nigel Farrage. I've rarely seen such a buffon face on someone. Less than 24h after celebrating the "win".
- gambiting 10y ago
  Don't forget that in an interview yesterday he said that if Brexit turns out to be a failed experiment, he will leave UK and live somewhere else. I'm sure his buddy Donald Trump will offer him a place to live.
  - Xylakant 10y ago
    AFAIR he wanted to emigrate to one of the eastern EU states. Irony is truly broken.
    - prodmerc 10y ago
      Oh no, the secret is out - Eastern Europe has sun, booze, food, mountains, snow and greenery and absolutely huge houses. The English invasion is imminent :D
folli 10y ago
I absolutely see the advantages of having common standards, tariff agreements etc. to make trade across borders easier (i.e. something akin to the European Economic Area). I'm however also a proponent of federalism, because I believe that for a democracy to truly work it is necessary that the people still feel responsible for their votes and their decisions. This is something which I'm missing in centralised and unitary states after they reach a certain size and heterogenity. I'm aware that the European Union is not (yet) a unitary state, but it is certainly shifting away democratic power from a more regional democratic system to a centralised government. I agree that the UK's decision to leave the EU is not an optimal one (and potentially costly), but I believe it's long term the right one, given the current state. An alternative would be to change the EU within, to force it to focus on its core competencies (which I mainly see as a trade union, and leave most of the political decisions to its nation states); however I'm not sure that this would happen without any big bang, such as the Brexit might have been.
- Svip 10y ago
  But the EU does have a directly elected parliament? So where's the lack of democracy in the EU?
  - folli 10y ago
    My point is that the more people feel detached from the political process, the less responsible they feel to take an active part in the process. This is why I believe that a regional government is to be preferred over a centralistic government. I'm aware that not all problems can be solved on a regional level, but those that can, should. This is especially true on a cultural more diverse landscape such as Europe compared to e.g. the US. Regarding your second question, lack of democracy: one thing that comes to mind is the lack of binding referendums and initiatives, as it happens e.g. in Switzerland on a regular basis.
    - zelos 10y ago
      Subsidiarity is one of the founding tenets of the EU: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/subsidiarity.html http://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/subsidiarity.html Whether that's true in practice is a matter of opinion.
nicky0 10y ago
> which will include higher prices, lower employment and probably lower standards for UK workers I often see this kind of sweeping statement here on HN as if the consequences of Brexit are an already an established fact. How do you substantiate these predicitons? Are you aware of the term "project fear"[0]? 0:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics...
- nthcolumn 10y ago
  Maybe the small matter that every single economic authority on the matter from our foreign allies like Barack Obama, to the IMF, the Bank Of England, the Confederation of British Industry, (and endless list) said it would be an unmitigated disaster... and then there are the people who think it is a good idea... Trump, Putin, Lafarge, Gove, and not even the the PM thought it was a good idea to start off with. Project Fear? - more like Project Shit Your Pants Now...
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - gutnor 10y ago
    You could say that all those people have been wrong before and therefore could be wrong this time. But, the problem you don't mention is that there is an element of self-fulfilling prophecy to those statements. There is no absolute objective metric that measure your country in a negotiation, it is more a market type thing. There is an element of irrationality and if all your partners think you are in trouble, then they will act toward you are if you were in trouble which may well be cause you to be in trouble. That works at all level too. If enough people living in the UK think the UK is doomed, they will start saving money or investing in foreign countries. A slowing of consumption is a crisis, it does not matter if the slowness was caused by objective and rationale reason or not. You can already see the effect. The last budget was another austerity budget with cuts and no investment. Despite the supposed economic nirvana that is only a few months away, the government is nevertheless bracing for trouble and that will affect the British people negatively regardless.
  - 10y ago
hosker4u 10y ago
On those negatives: "higher prices" our food prices are rather high due to EU Tarrifs from none-eu countries. Food Prices can fall as the UK free to make trade deals with others. (Specific meat and Australia) "lower employment" we have low-unemployment and a plan to reduce immigration. Employment will perhaps rise which may not be a good thing. "lower standards for UK workers" labour opposition myth, its a good one "nasty tories". If they lower standards we elect labour in again to raise them. yey democracy
lkrubner 10y ago
But, but, but, the Daily Mail says Brexit is good! It's absolutely true if it's written in the Daily Mail! I'm sure you've heard this song already, but it is worth a listen again to remember how Britain got here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI
tomjen3 10y ago
Hopefully there will be some sort of negotiation whereby workers in the UK can work in the EU, just like people who hold Swiss citizenship can. Then, if the experiment turns out horrible, which it probably will, you will at least have the opportunity to move abroad for a better life. I will extend to my condolences, but give it five years and I may very well be in your boat, and even if I'm not let's face it you can't use my condolences to anything.
99_00 10y ago
> It takes fairly heroic assumptions to make this into a specific number, but 2-3 percent lower income in perpetuity seems plausible. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconomics-of-brexit-motivated-reasoning/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconom...
golemotron 10y ago
> I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. Have you tried flipping that? The EU was an experiment, not the status quo.

ForRealsies 10y ago

The EU is a novelty in human history. The desire for independence, for better or worse, is human nature.

fao_ 10y ago
I guess only old Welsh people have "human nature" then...
bryanrasmussen 10y ago
Right, this is why there have never been empires, kings, large nations or organized groups that have subsumed smaller groups around them, the United States, Great Britain itself, or any organization of peoples greater than just one lone man standing in a field bellowing 'ME!' at the emptiness.
- coldtea 10y ago
  "Independence" it's not about some lone man bellowing "ME". It's about like-minded people sharing a common culture (as developed historically up to some point), over a hodge podge of states being united by sheer power or top-down dictum. Empires and kings ruled thanks to tons of bloodshed and continued vigilance and stomping of revolts. The "Great Britain" itself is a bad example -- it lost colony after colony due to wars for independence, and even sibling states like England, Ireland and Scotland have either split, or want to split. And of course it took some wars (and a lot of resentment) to bring down the Scottish into the UK's stable for example.
  - sangnoir 10y ago
    > And of course it took some wars (and a lot of resentment) to bring down the Scottish into the UK's stable for example. It looks like it's going to take Brexit for Scotland to leave the UK. Politically, Scotland and England have very little in common yet they are handcuffed together by "sheer power of top-down dictum"
  - untog 10y ago
    > It's about like-minded people sharing a common culture (as developed historically up to some point) But it's that "some point" that makes everything wishy washy. If I'm in favour of Scottish independence I cite common Scottish culture. If I'm in favour of the UK I cite the hundreds of years of shared culture. If I'm in favour of the EU I cite decades of shared culture. None of these are wrong, despite being in clear disagreement with each other. It's just an excuse for people to cite the opinion they already had and make it sound historically relevant. (and of course, has been the reasoning behind anti immigrant sentiment since time immaterial)
    - unethical_ban 10y ago
      Everything is wishy-washy. If you don't believe in complete individual sovereignty (no State) or in complete governmnent ownership and control of all production and thought, then you believe there are lines between individual freedom and societal coherence. So wishy-washy! It's ALWAYS about the line and where it is. I think sharing a language is an important factor in the ability to share culture and values. So I might put the line closer to the UK than to the EU in your example.
    - coldtea 10y ago
      >But it's that "some point" that makes everything wishy washy. If I'm in favour of Scottish independence I cite common Scottish culture. If I'm in favour of the UK I cite the hundreds of years of shared culture. If I'm in favour of the EU I cite decades of shared culture. None of these are wrong, despite being in clear disagreement with each other. Well, it's up to what the majority likes. Everything is wishy-washy in human affairs -- because opinions differ, people value this or that more etc. But in the end, it's also people who get, or should get, to decide what they want to do.
TeMPOraL 10y ago
I wonder if the "desire for independence" is simply born out of the usual ingroup/outgroup dynamics - convince people they're being ruled by an outgroup, and suddenly they want to be independent. The problem with this being that group borders are petty flexible and easily manipulated.
- agumonkey 10y ago
  It's a balance thing, you cannot survive without your environment, but you have to find a suitable one to avoid dying too.
- coldtea 10y ago
  >The problem with this being that group borders are petty flexible and easily manipulated. Not that flexible -- it takes long, historical processes to change them. People were living within the same "unified" culture, state mandated et al, forced to be together in USSR and Yugoslavia for 50 to 80 years -- and yet those states exploded into multiple national countries as soon as they had the chance. Some borders are organic (based on culture, shared history, geographical boundaries etc) and some are not (based on colonial rules drawing lines in a map which include groups with different cultures which have historically been enemies in the same "country": the British have done this time and again, and is also the most common cause of tension in Africa etc).
  - osullivj 10y ago
    The USSR was a re-implementation of the Tsarist Russian empire by another name. The peoples yoked together in the USSR had been absorbed by Russian expansion in the 18th & 19th centuries. Yugoslavia was a variation on the same theme. The north had been part of the Austro Hungarian Empire, and the south part of the Ottoman Empire.
    - coldtea 10y ago
      That's what I write. Merely getting people to live together under one "union" doesn't mean it will stick, or that they like it, or that they'll identify with it over their prior and existing identities. Nor (as happened in both cases) that they wont split on the first chance they get.
fredley 10y ago
Independence from what? Should England be an Independent state? London? The City of London?
- mpweiher 10y ago
  Kensington and Chelsea. Definitely!
  - louisswiss 10y ago
    Kensington High Street for the inhabitants of Kensington High Street!
    - mpweiher 10y ago
      You can keep your stinkin' High Street. We Chesterton Roadies don't want any part of it!
      - g_k_chesterton 10y ago
        "Do you really mean that you are -- God help me! -- a Notting Hill patriot; that you are --?" from The Napoleon of Notting Hill https://books.google.com/books?id=KajPAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA111 https://books.google.com/books?id=KajPAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA111
- skylan_q 10y ago
  It is a serious question worth asking. To just discard the desire for independence as backwards and stupid is to go too far.
- stuaxo 10y ago
  There should probably autonomous regions, the West and the North are neglected, they could have their own governments (but still be part of England).
- dalore 10y ago
  Each British homeowner should be independent. A man's house is his castle. The could all be lords of their own empire but band together when needed to fight common enemies. Perhaps they could all group together money to help pay for common services like roads etc.
CPLX 10y ago
It's really not. The American states were a loosely organized confederacy at outset as well. India has multiple languages. And of course the long history of empires, like the Ottoman, or Spanish control of Latin America. Yes they rise and fall, but often over the course of centuries and well out of the observational abilities of the human lifespan. There's nothing inevitable about the EU, in either direction.
- enraged_camel 10y ago
  America, as well as all empires in history, were created and then kept together via military force. In contrast, the EU started out peacefully as a trade organization. Membership in it is purely voluntary. This makes it quite unique.
  - CPLX 10y ago
    The original decision by the various states to join together was not at all accomplished by armed conquest.
    - 27182818284 10y ago
      >The original decision That's true but blatantly ignores things like, oh, you know the Civil War that tore the US apart
  - dingaling 10y ago
    > Membership in it is purely voluntary. This makes it quite unique. NATO arose from the ashes of conflict but membership is entirely voluntary, and unlike leaving the EU there is no talk of 'punishing' those who no longer wish to remain. For example France left the NATO integrated military structure in 1996 and rejoined in 2009 without penalty.
    - jbmorgado 10y ago
      What exactly are to "punishments" the EU is giving the UK that you are talking about?
dalore 10y ago
The USA is a novelty in human history. The desire for independence, for better or worse, is human nature.
vidarh 10y ago
I'd say the desire to build empires is a far more dominant part of human history than fights for independence. As for novelty, apart from drawing parallels to the establishment of the US, consider also the African Union. The African Union includes every country on the African continent - 55 of them (as of Morocco joining/rejoining in January), and includes far more people, and is on a course towards similar levels of integration, with several free trade areas established and gradually coalescing, and several monetary unions being used to gradually pare down the number of currencies with the goal of a single African currency. It has a long way to go to reach EU level integration, but considering how bad their starting point was (starting, in the form of the OAU with a continent that still had numerous wars and civil wars and independence struggles), what they've achieved is quite impressive.
- ForRealsies 10y ago
  >I'd say the desire to build empires is a far more dominant part of human history than fights for independence. Explaining the state of the EU to any politician in the 1940s, the 1840s, or the 1740s would assume Germany is positioning to make a financial conquest of the entire continent.
ionised 10y ago
This is a gross oversimplification.

krona 10y ago

> which will include higher prices Interesting. I was in a UK supermarket the other day and the asparagus on offer was from Spain and Mexico. The Mexican variety was cheaper, and just as good. Currently, Mexico pays a 14.4% common external tariff on this product, and it's still cheaper than what the EU (with it's massive array of agricultural subsidy) can produce. I imagine this is just the tip of the iceberg.

louisswiss 10y ago
*heart of the iceberg (lettuce) - tip of the asparagus.
JamesMcMinn 10y ago
Given that Spain is still recovering from flooding, cold weather and a bunch of other issues [1] that have made growing vegetables impossible in many areas, that's not really a surprise. [1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38666752 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38666752
- ktzar 10y ago
  That's an article from almost 2 months ago.
  - JamesMcMinn 10y ago
    ...yes, it is. So what? Vegetables don't just magically appear in minutes - they take weeks or months to grow, so bad winter has an effect which can last for most of the year.
- pvaldes 10y ago
  > Spain is still recovering from flooding This was only in a small part of Spain, mostly turistic. Those places full of english expatriates are always overrepresented in english newspapers IMHO, giving a false impression. It can seem worst that it is also. Free water means literally free money fallen from the sky and of course those big companies have enough muscle and resources to replace the plastic greenhouses and restart quickly. The winter was not particularly hard. I remember a bad couple of weeks. Not much more. A little chill is good for most fruits. Casually, I has aubergines for dining today. It seems that the problem to find spanish vegetables in the market is solved.

bontoJR 10y ago

These are pretty much the same forecasts Switzerland and Norway were supposed to face when they rejected to join the EU... people losing jobs, Swiss Franc falling, export collapsing, etc... well, it went a little bit in a different way. OFC leaving is totally a different thing from not being in at all, but still... there are going to be pro and cons, but the economy will adapt as happened in Switzerland and Norway. Some will gain, some will lose, but the general picture can be valid only in 3-5 years after the Kingdom is out, so not before 2022.

lhopki01 10y ago
What? Norway is a member of the EEA and Switzerland has bilateral agreements that come to the same thing. Nothing changed for them they just don't get a say in the rules.
- TheArcane 10y ago
  And they still have to foot the membership fees.
hocuspocus 10y ago
The UK is putting itself in a much tougher situation, this is absolutely not comparable to Switzerland and Norway. And some of the forecasts about Switzerland turned out very real. We have to agree and comply with Europe on most things, without much bargaining power. And the EURCHF swings can literally put businesses to the ground overnight.
- folli 10y ago
  This could also be construed as the EU acting as a hegemony and abusing their economic power to force smaller countries to accept their terms. The same can be currently observed when some EU exponents demand that the Brits get punished for pulling out.
  - prodmerc 10y ago
    Yeah, no shit, that's the whole point of a strong economic union.

agumonkey 10y ago

It's also a very weakly motivated experiment. At least based on the morning after TV appearance of Nigel Farrage. I've rarely seen such a buffon face on someone. Less than 24h after celebrating the "win".

gambiting 10y ago
Don't forget that in an interview yesterday he said that if Brexit turns out to be a failed experiment, he will leave UK and live somewhere else. I'm sure his buddy Donald Trump will offer him a place to live.
- Xylakant 10y ago
  AFAIR he wanted to emigrate to one of the eastern EU states. Irony is truly broken.
  - prodmerc 10y ago
    Oh no, the secret is out - Eastern Europe has sun, booze, food, mountains, snow and greenery and absolutely huge houses. The English invasion is imminent :D

folli 10y ago

I absolutely see the advantages of having common standards, tariff agreements etc. to make trade across borders easier (i.e. something akin to the European Economic Area). I'm however also a proponent of federalism, because I believe that for a democracy to truly work it is necessary that the people still feel responsible for their votes and their decisions. This is something which I'm missing in centralised and unitary states after they reach a certain size and heterogenity. I'm aware that the European Union is not (yet) a unitary state, but it is certainly shifting away democratic power from a more regional democratic system to a centralised government. I agree that the UK's decision to leave the EU is not an optimal one (and potentially costly), but I believe it's long term the right one, given the current state. An alternative would be to change the EU within, to force it to focus on its core competencies (which I mainly see as a trade union, and leave most of the political decisions to its nation states); however I'm not sure that this would happen without any big bang, such as the Brexit might have been.

Svip 10y ago
But the EU does have a directly elected parliament? So where's the lack of democracy in the EU?
- folli 10y ago
  My point is that the more people feel detached from the political process, the less responsible they feel to take an active part in the process. This is why I believe that a regional government is to be preferred over a centralistic government. I'm aware that not all problems can be solved on a regional level, but those that can, should. This is especially true on a cultural more diverse landscape such as Europe compared to e.g. the US. Regarding your second question, lack of democracy: one thing that comes to mind is the lack of binding referendums and initiatives, as it happens e.g. in Switzerland on a regular basis.
  - zelos 10y ago
    Subsidiarity is one of the founding tenets of the EU: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/subsidiarity.html http://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/subsidiarity.html Whether that's true in practice is a matter of opinion.

nicky0 10y ago

> which will include higher prices, lower employment and probably lower standards for UK workers I often see this kind of sweeping statement here on HN as if the consequences of Brexit are an already an established fact. How do you substantiate these predicitons? Are you aware of the term "project fear"[0]? 0:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics...

nthcolumn 10y ago
Maybe the small matter that every single economic authority on the matter from our foreign allies like Barack Obama, to the IMF, the Bank Of England, the Confederation of British Industry, (and endless list) said it would be an unmitigated disaster... and then there are the people who think it is a good idea... Trump, Putin, Lafarge, Gove, and not even the the PM thought it was a good idea to start off with. Project Fear? - more like Project Shit Your Pants Now...
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- gutnor 10y ago
  You could say that all those people have been wrong before and therefore could be wrong this time. But, the problem you don't mention is that there is an element of self-fulfilling prophecy to those statements. There is no absolute objective metric that measure your country in a negotiation, it is more a market type thing. There is an element of irrationality and if all your partners think you are in trouble, then they will act toward you are if you were in trouble which may well be cause you to be in trouble. That works at all level too. If enough people living in the UK think the UK is doomed, they will start saving money or investing in foreign countries. A slowing of consumption is a crisis, it does not matter if the slowness was caused by objective and rationale reason or not. You can already see the effect. The last budget was another austerity budget with cuts and no investment. Despite the supposed economic nirvana that is only a few months away, the government is nevertheless bracing for trouble and that will affect the British people negatively regardless.
- 10y ago

hosker4u 10y ago

On those negatives: "higher prices" our food prices are rather high due to EU Tarrifs from none-eu countries. Food Prices can fall as the UK free to make trade deals with others. (Specific meat and Australia) "lower employment" we have low-unemployment and a plan to reduce immigration. Employment will perhaps rise which may not be a good thing. "lower standards for UK workers" labour opposition myth, its a good one "nasty tories". If they lower standards we elect labour in again to raise them. yey democracy

lkrubner 10y ago

But, but, but, the Daily Mail says Brexit is good! It's absolutely true if it's written in the Daily Mail! I'm sure you've heard this song already, but it is worth a listen again to remember how Britain got here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI

tomjen3 10y ago

Hopefully there will be some sort of negotiation whereby workers in the UK can work in the EU, just like people who hold Swiss citizenship can. Then, if the experiment turns out horrible, which it probably will, you will at least have the opportunity to move abroad for a better life. I will extend to my condolences, but give it five years and I may very well be in your boat, and even if I'm not let's face it you can't use my condolences to anything.

99_00 10y ago

> It takes fairly heroic assumptions to make this into a specific number, but 2-3 percent lower income in perpetuity seems plausible. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconomics-of-brexit-motivated-reasoning/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconom...

golemotron 10y ago

> I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. Have you tried flipping that? The EU was an experiment, not the status quo.