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>Why do they assume auto makers will just sit there and do nothing? Because the hype will be with the new, and auto makers will be perceived as "old" even if t

>Why do they assume auto makers will just sit there and do nothing? Because the hype will be with the new, and auto makers will be perceived as "old" even if they release electric cars, which will be tough because they're already behind Tesla. Everyone wants to have that Tesla, and no one wants a Blackberry even if the newer versions have touch and have all the features of an iPhone. It happened in the smartphone industry, with taxi apps etc. etc. It's hard to shake off widespread public perception short of reinventing yourself which is possible, but quite rarely seen.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
maxerickson 10y ago
GM is shipping a (practical) mass market electric platform in a few months. They are apparently behind Tesla when it comes to autonomous features, the Bolt looks to be competitive with the Model 3 as a daily driver and will beat it to market.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >They are apparently behind Tesla when it comes to autonomous features I'm not even sure this is the case. Tesla, with AP2.0, seems to be starting from scratch. New cars will have no autonomous features. I'm not convinced they have a technological lead over other players in what is becoming a saturated space.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    They have a non zero chance of activating it in cars that they are selling now (or at least in the near future). You can't do that trick if you don't commit to the hardware. More broadly I think you are right, it's hard to see where the different groups really stand from the outside.
    - forgetsusername 10y ago
      >You can't do that trick if you don't commit to the hardware. I agree, this was a pretty slick move all around. Add the hardware (which is simple and cheap), collect data, iterate on the technology, and sell it now as a "game-changer" and "upgrade". Elon has a knack for packaging things like this.
- spectrum1234 10y ago
  If only it wasn't ugly as fuck.
  - ams6110 10y ago
    The model 3 is no beauty queen either.
rubber_duck 10y ago
I would have no problem buying an 'old' car if price/performance was right, as would many others, not to mention that outside of hipster circles people value old brands as reliable and trustworthy. You can't comparre brands like VW and BlackBerry.
rgbrenner 10y ago
The difference is that Blackberry spent years ignoring the iphone, pretending they didn't need to change anything. The car manufacturers don't appear to be ignoring tesla at all. In fact, Tesla is being outsold by more than one of the "old" companies electric cars today. If you have to compare it to phones, it's much more similar to iphone vs android. Android might not have been first, but they responded quickly.. a variety of phones/cars allows manufacturers to meet the requirements of more market segments. At the end of the day, Tesla/Apple can only offer a handful of models.. if you don't like it, you're choices are the large variety produced by Android manufacturers. That virtually guarantees Android will have a greater market share than the iphone/Tesla.
- rbanffy 10y ago
  I have a feeling Tesla is a battery company that makes cars to prove a point and generate demand for their batteries.
  - duaneb 10y ago
    That's reductive, even if it does indicate the competitive edge tesla has.
    - rgbrenner 10y ago
      I agree.. but it's interesting to think of Tesla in that way. Powerwall clearly is not a complimentary product of a car. If it was wildly successful, it would have had minimal effect on Tesla's car sales, while having a significant effect on it's battery production. Similarly, SolarCity (which is merging with Tesla) increases demand for batteries.. but again, has little effect on their car sales. In fact, the one thing all of their products share in common (solar, powerwall, cars) is that they increase the demand for batteries. Tesla may be a car manufacturer.. but it would easy to think their primary business is actually batteries.
      - greglindahl 10y ago
        More battery production -> lower battery prices -> lower car price -> more car sales.
grzm 10y ago
> Because the hype will be with the new ... > no one wants a Blackberry even if the newer versions have ... I agree that there is a hype aspect to this, but I don't think it's the whole story. You rightly point out that it's hard to shake off widespread public perception short of reinventing yourself. I think that in many cases the perception is earned. As is often pointed out, there are many aspects of the iPhone that are not original to Apple. Tesla isn't the first company to come out with an electric car. I don't think hype alone is going to have people shelling out tens of thousands of dollars for a new car. What prevented the established companies from putting out compelling products themselves? After all, they already have experience in the industry. Clayton M. Christensen's "The Innovator's Dilemma" discusses this in part. And once you've lost the perception of being competitive, you're playing catch up on both marketing and product. Ouch.
- hilop 10y ago
  Established companies ARE putting out EVs and getting better at them every year.
pattisapu 10y ago
Not necessarily. The Honda Insight hit big Western markets before the Toyota Prius around the turn of the century, but ultimately the Prius became the most popular hybrid vehicle. What customers want in a car is different from what they want in a phone.
- fragmede 10y ago
  > Honda Insight The (original) Honda Insight was a tiny 2-seater of a car, more tech demo than "ordinary" car, and perhaps it's the gift of hindsight but the Prius' popularity for with people that own one car, as a 4-door 5-seater car vs a non-sportscar 2-door 2-seater car seems all but guaranteed. (How many people do you know that own 2-seaters vs 5-seaters?) Similarly, the vast majority of smartphones these days are (unfortunately) glass bricks, as first popularized by Apple. There were other interesting designs out there, but ultimately the iPhone design became the most popular smartphone design.
  - pattisapu 10y ago
    Good point.
  - coredog64 10y ago
    The first generation Prius wasn't exactly a hot-seller. It was still a compact car and the battery pack reduced the utility even more. The second-gen was the home-run for Toyota. It was about the same size as a Camry for not much more money and a lot of additional utility, especially around 2008-2009 when gas prices were absolutely crazy.
  - hilop 10y ago
    What are the other interesting designs?
forgetsusername 10y ago
>Everyone wants to have that Tesla ...in Silicon Valley. Tesla is far smaller than you think. The market and mind share outside of extremely wealthy sectors of the country is miniscule. Nobody where I live has even heard of them (unless, of course, you are a technically inclined forum reader). HN seems to think Tesla has already won (even though they can't profitably produce a vehicle), and that everyone working for the auto majors are old, stodgy, and stupid. But I'm betting otherwise. I think they see that the writing is on the wall, and they're allowing Tesla to do much of the leg work.
- daodedickinson 10y ago
  I've seen a lot of electric cars. I've seen one Tesla ever, and I saw it at the end of a long road trip to the Bay Area.
  - WalterBright 10y ago
    I see a lot of Teslas around Seattle.
- dirtyaura 10y ago
  On the other hand, here in the Northern Europe, people even outside of tech circles talk about Teslas and recognize them on the streets. But I very rarely hear people talking about other electric car models. I think Tesla has already tremendous global brand for such a young company.
  - izacus 10y ago
    And how many people recognise Teslas direct competitors? Audi, BMW, Mercedes, etc.? :)
    - dirtyaura 10y ago
      Of course more people recognise the old guard, but that wasn't the point. The point is that Tesla already has a significant global mindshare in electric cars despite the fact that they have only sold less than 200K cars to date. I bet I'm not far off when claiming that almost everyone who is considering of buying a full electric car has heard about Tesla.
Animats 10y ago
Chevy will probably be the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in a year or two. They're #2 right now, and the Chevy Bolt comes out soon. The Bolt is a useful car, the price is affordable, it has more range than the Tesla Model 3, and the Chevrolet Division of General Motors has a track record of building large numbers of cars at low cost.
- drcross 10y ago
  I think range anxiety is over-played because 1. people don't drive for long distances all the much anyway and 2. battery capacity improves 8% year on year, within 9 years it will have doubled and it will be a moot point.
  - dsfyu404ed 10y ago
    But what about when you do want to drive a long distance? Unless you just want to drive in circles around a major metropolitan area where charging stations are plentiful it's going to require having a planned route/schedule and sticking to it. That's a huge decrease in utility compared to a vehicle you can fuel up anywhere. Unless chargers become close to as common as gas stations EV range will have to be greater than that of traditional vehicles.
    - beambot 10y ago
      > Unless chargers become close to as common as gas stations [...] If an EV supports 120V outlets, then chargers are already more common than gas stations by many orders of magnitude. Fast charging is a different story... But for long road trips, taking a break for a couple hours every 400 miles doesn't sound like a bad idea, and we already have ample rest stops along most highways.
      - Yaggo 10y ago
        Charging a 60 kWh battery in two hours requires average power of 30 kilowatts, i.e. about ten times more power than available from a regular household outlet. So you really need proper fast charging infrastructure.
jacques_chester 10y ago
> Because the hype will be with the new, and auto makers will be perceived as "old" even if they release electric cars, which will be tough because they're already behind Tesla. Much like how Red Bull completely replaced Coca-Cola. Or that time Microsoft was replaced on the desktop by Ubuntu. Or that occasion when the Segway killed off bicycles.
- jacquesm 10y ago
  No, more like Apple almost accidentally killed Nokia (with a little help from Microsoft and Samsung).
  - jacques_chester 10y ago
    The point being: Sometimes the incumbent wins. Sometimes they don't. Making sweeping generalisations across all competitive landscapes in all industries isn't a very effective method of forecasting in particular industries.
danmaz74 10y ago
Nobody wants a Blackberry... but hundreds of millions want Samsung, LG etc. etc. etc.
ams6110 10y ago
Not everyone wants a Tesla, that's just absurd. There will be plenty of buyers across the price range from cheap Asian commuter cars to mainstream Ford and GM to luxury BMW and Mercedes EVs.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

maxerickson 10y ago

GM is shipping a (practical) mass market electric platform in a few months. They are apparently behind Tesla when it comes to autonomous features, the Bolt looks to be competitive with the Model 3 as a daily driver and will beat it to market.

forgetsusername 10y ago
>They are apparently behind Tesla when it comes to autonomous features I'm not even sure this is the case. Tesla, with AP2.0, seems to be starting from scratch. New cars will have no autonomous features. I'm not convinced they have a technological lead over other players in what is becoming a saturated space.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  They have a non zero chance of activating it in cars that they are selling now (or at least in the near future). You can't do that trick if you don't commit to the hardware. More broadly I think you are right, it's hard to see where the different groups really stand from the outside.
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    >You can't do that trick if you don't commit to the hardware. I agree, this was a pretty slick move all around. Add the hardware (which is simple and cheap), collect data, iterate on the technology, and sell it now as a "game-changer" and "upgrade". Elon has a knack for packaging things like this.
spectrum1234 10y ago
If only it wasn't ugly as fuck.
- ams6110 10y ago
  The model 3 is no beauty queen either.

rubber_duck 10y ago

I would have no problem buying an 'old' car if price/performance was right, as would many others, not to mention that outside of hipster circles people value old brands as reliable and trustworthy. You can't comparre brands like VW and BlackBerry.

rgbrenner 10y ago

The difference is that Blackberry spent years ignoring the iphone, pretending they didn't need to change anything. The car manufacturers don't appear to be ignoring tesla at all. In fact, Tesla is being outsold by more than one of the "old" companies electric cars today. If you have to compare it to phones, it's much more similar to iphone vs android. Android might not have been first, but they responded quickly.. a variety of phones/cars allows manufacturers to meet the requirements of more market segments. At the end of the day, Tesla/Apple can only offer a handful of models.. if you don't like it, you're choices are the large variety produced by Android manufacturers. That virtually guarantees Android will have a greater market share than the iphone/Tesla.

rbanffy 10y ago
I have a feeling Tesla is a battery company that makes cars to prove a point and generate demand for their batteries.
- duaneb 10y ago
  That's reductive, even if it does indicate the competitive edge tesla has.
  - rgbrenner 10y ago
    I agree.. but it's interesting to think of Tesla in that way. Powerwall clearly is not a complimentary product of a car. If it was wildly successful, it would have had minimal effect on Tesla's car sales, while having a significant effect on it's battery production. Similarly, SolarCity (which is merging with Tesla) increases demand for batteries.. but again, has little effect on their car sales. In fact, the one thing all of their products share in common (solar, powerwall, cars) is that they increase the demand for batteries. Tesla may be a car manufacturer.. but it would easy to think their primary business is actually batteries.
    - greglindahl 10y ago
      More battery production -> lower battery prices -> lower car price -> more car sales.

grzm 10y ago

> Because the hype will be with the new ... > no one wants a Blackberry even if the newer versions have ... I agree that there is a hype aspect to this, but I don't think it's the whole story. You rightly point out that it's hard to shake off widespread public perception short of reinventing yourself. I think that in many cases the perception is earned. As is often pointed out, there are many aspects of the iPhone that are not original to Apple. Tesla isn't the first company to come out with an electric car. I don't think hype alone is going to have people shelling out tens of thousands of dollars for a new car. What prevented the established companies from putting out compelling products themselves? After all, they already have experience in the industry. Clayton M. Christensen's "The Innovator's Dilemma" discusses this in part. And once you've lost the perception of being competitive, you're playing catch up on both marketing and product. Ouch.

hilop 10y ago
Established companies ARE putting out EVs and getting better at them every year.

pattisapu 10y ago

Not necessarily. The Honda Insight hit big Western markets before the Toyota Prius around the turn of the century, but ultimately the Prius became the most popular hybrid vehicle. What customers want in a car is different from what they want in a phone.

fragmede 10y ago
> Honda Insight The (original) Honda Insight was a tiny 2-seater of a car, more tech demo than "ordinary" car, and perhaps it's the gift of hindsight but the Prius' popularity for with people that own one car, as a 4-door 5-seater car vs a non-sportscar 2-door 2-seater car seems all but guaranteed. (How many people do you know that own 2-seaters vs 5-seaters?) Similarly, the vast majority of smartphones these days are (unfortunately) glass bricks, as first popularized by Apple. There were other interesting designs out there, but ultimately the iPhone design became the most popular smartphone design.
- pattisapu 10y ago
  Good point.
- coredog64 10y ago
  The first generation Prius wasn't exactly a hot-seller. It was still a compact car and the battery pack reduced the utility even more. The second-gen was the home-run for Toyota. It was about the same size as a Camry for not much more money and a lot of additional utility, especially around 2008-2009 when gas prices were absolutely crazy.
- hilop 10y ago
  What are the other interesting designs?

forgetsusername 10y ago

>Everyone wants to have that Tesla ...in Silicon Valley. Tesla is far smaller than you think. The market and mind share outside of extremely wealthy sectors of the country is miniscule. Nobody where I live has even heard of them (unless, of course, you are a technically inclined forum reader). HN seems to think Tesla has already won (even though they can't profitably produce a vehicle), and that everyone working for the auto majors are old, stodgy, and stupid. But I'm betting otherwise. I think they see that the writing is on the wall, and they're allowing Tesla to do much of the leg work.

daodedickinson 10y ago
I've seen a lot of electric cars. I've seen one Tesla ever, and I saw it at the end of a long road trip to the Bay Area.
- WalterBright 10y ago
  I see a lot of Teslas around Seattle.
dirtyaura 10y ago
On the other hand, here in the Northern Europe, people even outside of tech circles talk about Teslas and recognize them on the streets. But I very rarely hear people talking about other electric car models. I think Tesla has already tremendous global brand for such a young company.
- izacus 10y ago
  And how many people recognise Teslas direct competitors? Audi, BMW, Mercedes, etc.? :)
  - dirtyaura 10y ago
    Of course more people recognise the old guard, but that wasn't the point. The point is that Tesla already has a significant global mindshare in electric cars despite the fact that they have only sold less than 200K cars to date. I bet I'm not far off when claiming that almost everyone who is considering of buying a full electric car has heard about Tesla.

Animats 10y ago

Chevy will probably be the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in a year or two. They're #2 right now, and the Chevy Bolt comes out soon. The Bolt is a useful car, the price is affordable, it has more range than the Tesla Model 3, and the Chevrolet Division of General Motors has a track record of building large numbers of cars at low cost.

drcross 10y ago
I think range anxiety is over-played because 1. people don't drive for long distances all the much anyway and 2. battery capacity improves 8% year on year, within 9 years it will have doubled and it will be a moot point.
- dsfyu404ed 10y ago
  But what about when you do want to drive a long distance? Unless you just want to drive in circles around a major metropolitan area where charging stations are plentiful it's going to require having a planned route/schedule and sticking to it. That's a huge decrease in utility compared to a vehicle you can fuel up anywhere. Unless chargers become close to as common as gas stations EV range will have to be greater than that of traditional vehicles.
  - beambot 10y ago
    > Unless chargers become close to as common as gas stations [...] If an EV supports 120V outlets, then chargers are already more common than gas stations by many orders of magnitude. Fast charging is a different story... But for long road trips, taking a break for a couple hours every 400 miles doesn't sound like a bad idea, and we already have ample rest stops along most highways.
    - Yaggo 10y ago
      Charging a 60 kWh battery in two hours requires average power of 30 kilowatts, i.e. about ten times more power than available from a regular household outlet. So you really need proper fast charging infrastructure.

jacques_chester 10y ago

> Because the hype will be with the new, and auto makers will be perceived as "old" even if they release electric cars, which will be tough because they're already behind Tesla. Much like how Red Bull completely replaced Coca-Cola. Or that time Microsoft was replaced on the desktop by Ubuntu. Or that occasion when the Segway killed off bicycles.

jacquesm 10y ago
No, more like Apple almost accidentally killed Nokia (with a little help from Microsoft and Samsung).
- jacques_chester 10y ago
  The point being: Sometimes the incumbent wins. Sometimes they don't. Making sweeping generalisations across all competitive landscapes in all industries isn't a very effective method of forecasting in particular industries.

danmaz74 10y ago

Nobody wants a Blackberry... but hundreds of millions want Samsung, LG etc. etc. etc.

ams6110 10y ago

Not everyone wants a Tesla, that's just absurd. There will be plenty of buyers across the price range from cheap Asian commuter cars to mainstream Ford and GM to luxury BMW and Mercedes EVs.