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As Zika virus spreads, El Salvador asks women not to get pregnant until 2018
- macintux 11y agoIf this pope, and this crisis in his own back yard, aren't sufficient to compel a change in Catholic teachings on birth control, I think it's safe to assume it'll not happen for generations.
- paulddraper 11y agoI don't think that's how it works. It's God's mind you have to "change", not the Pope's. At least, if I understand Catholicism correctly.
- ninjin 11y agoI am not sure how it "works" either. But, if the Catholic church could gradually change its position on slavery [1], surely it should be possible to do so on other matters as well. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_and_slavery#The_movement_towards_abolition_of_slavery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_and_slavery#Th...
- archimedespi 11y ago95% of Catholicism is re-interpretation by the Church of their holy documents. Changing the mind of the church is definitely a thing - see heliocentrism.
- knughit 11y agoHeliocentricism is not a religious belief.
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- archimedespi 11y agoHeliocentrism was a religiously-derived belief. There are certainly other examples - for some verses in the bible, there are hundreds of interpretations.
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- ars 11y agoIt doesn't have to cause any change. They could say "In order to preserve life and health, use birth control during this crisis. But otherwise don't." After all, most people use birth control for economic reasons, not health reasons.
- detaro 11y agoThat would be a change to the principle that sex only is allowed if it can lead to procreation, on which the ban of birth control is based.
- ars 11y agoInteresting. So you would expect them to say "don't have sex" - even for a married couple, rather than birth control? Are you sure that's really what they would prefer?
- detaro 11y agoThat's the official line of the catholic church, yes. Not without internal protests, and not without quite a few people, including clergy, ignoring it, but still. No active birth control, married or not. The fact that (unlike e.g. AIDS, where this policy also has been under fire) this isn't sexually transmitted and supposedly temporary might make it easier to change the line? I think the GP is right that now seems to be a prime moment for it to happen.
- ufo 11y agoZika is mainly transmited by mosquito but it can also be transmited sexually, in fact.
- geertj 11y agoTerrifying. Doing some quick back of the envelope calculations: 1,000,000 people in Brazil got the virus, and there are 4,000 cases of microcephaly. Let's assume that most of these are caused by the virus (pre-virus level of microcephaly were very low) and assume half of the people are women. Also assume roughly two pregnancies over a women's life, and an average life expectancy of 73 years. This would mean that of the 500,000 women that got the virus, roughly 2% of these women were pregnant while getting the virus, which equates to 10,000 women, resulting in 4,000 cases of microcephaly. This would be a 40% chance of microcephaly when a woman catches the virus during pregnancy. That is absurdly high for a virus that is starting to become (or already is) an epidemic. There's many assumptions in the calculation and I'm sure the medical profession has much better numbers. As I said it's a back of the envelope. But even if the chances are 20% or 10%, that is still extremely high and worrying. The recommendation not to get pregnant in countries where the virus is active suddenly makes sense.
- aikah 11y ago> The recommendation not to get pregnant in countries where the virus is active suddenly makes sense How is one going to implement such a policy ? one can't make people stop having sex and AFAIK El Salvador is very religious (no abortions...) and poor (no contraceptives ...). This epidemic concerns the whole world IMHO and we should put a maximum of resources into finding a cure or a vaccine (if none exist yet) ASAP. Now i'm even hearing that this virus might be a STD ... scary.
- snegu 11y agoIt's not a policy, it's a recommendation. Women can do with it what they will.
- meagain20000 11y agoIndeed. Hope the government educates them at least on how to prevent pregnancy and also provides the resources. In reality man should also be educated and provided with lots of condoms.
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- dexwiz 11y agoTruly a terrible disease. The fear associated with it must be horrible for pregnant women. I wonder if the warning would be the same if the virus had killed or disfigured 4000 newborns instead of affecting fetuses. We seem to put more emphasis on the health of a fetus than anything (prenatal supplements, mother's habits, etc).
- paulddraper 11y agoI don't understand. This does affect newborns.
- dexwiz 11y agoIt affects newborns because it affects fetuses. But if a newborn gets the disease (I assume) it won't result in the same level of brain damage.
- sandworm101 11y agoIt isn't so much that it is killing many. It isn't. The problem is that these babies are being born relatively healthy, but with debilitating mental/brain deficiencies that will follow them and their families for decades.
- ars 11y agoIt might be killing fetuses. That would show up in elevated levels of miscarriages - do they track that though?
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- dfuzwer 11y agoChildren of Men.
- rogeryu 11y agoIf they want this, they should give them the means to do that: birth control! For free!
- GFK_of_xmaspast 11y agoEl Salvador can't even manage to legalize miscarriages.
- navaati 11y agoThis, on top of all the other mosquito-born diseases, may finally convince the authorities/ethical commitees/whoever has the decision power to use this CRISPR specie-killing scheme talked about some time ago. It's scary, but it's badly needed. Because as sibling comment said, asking people not to get pregnant will never work, anytime anywhere in the world.
- bayesianhorse 11y agoAsking people to delay pregnancies will reduce some of the burden. I don't think the mosquito-killing gene editing technology is ready for deployment yet...
- sandworm101 11y ago>> mosquito-killing gene editing technology. That cannot be allowed to be a thing. Mosquitoes fill an important niche in a great many ecologies. Any society capable of creating such a thing will surely be able to create a vaccine or treatment. That is where energies should be focused.
- jf 11y agoCan you go into detail on what you mean by "Mosquitoes fill an important niche in a great many ecologies"?
- DiabloD3 11y agoImportant food source for fish and birds for quite a few species. Wiping them out would be a serious error.
- alextgordon 11y agoImportant food source or only food source?
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- protomyth 11y agoSo, what's the current best bet to kill that type of mosquito?
- ams6110 11y agoDDT. We were in sight of eliminating malaria when it was banned.
- ceejayoz 11y agoIn certain areas, but resistance to the chemical was observed even in early usage. It's highly unlikely malaria would've been eliminated by DDT use in the long run.
- ufo 11y agoRight now, the best response we have is to target mosquito breeding sites. Mosquitos need still water to lay eggs, which it typically found in drains, plant pots, uncovered debris (bottles, tires), swimming pools, etc.
- sandworm101 11y agoWhat is the rate of ultrasounds in these countries? This deformity is very detectable. I know that the only treatment, if one can call it that, is termination, but this may be important in coming years. In many communities mothers would commonly opt to terminate these pregnancies. It's harsh and vicious, but it does happen. We need to think about such sociological differences when predicting this disease. The wave of birth defects hitting Brazil may not be replicated in countries where ultrasounds are standard and attitudes to termination differ.
- dexwiz 11y agoLatin America in general is very Catholic and very Pro Life. Abortions are often illegal or only legal in select cases. Even if the disease was detectable, they mothers may not terminate.
- sandworm101 11y agoThat's precisely my point. The rate of birth defects is dependant on more than the spread of the disease. The epidemiologists predicting the long term situation will have to account for this.
- WildUtah 11y agoEl Salvador has the Marco Rubio/Ted Cruz abortion policy. It's illegal even if the fetus is unviably sick, even as a result of rape, and even if the mother will die from the pregnancy.
- bpodgursky 11y agoThese defects are often not detectable via ultrasound until late second / early third trimester, where abortions are more expensive, more emotionally scarring, and more illegal.
- DanBC 11y agoEl Salvador has a total ban on any abortion. Some women who miscarried have been imprisoned. Maybe this disease will make them change their repressive law, but it's not likely.
- openforce 11y agoDiseases transmitted by mosquitos have increased tremendously in the last decade, Especially in developing nations. I am from India and we never used to hear about cases of Dengue or Chikungunya 10-15 years ago. Now its all too common. Looks like this is a similar disease, now with links to microcephaly. Dramatic increase in city populations, poor infrastructure result in increased mosquito breeding grounds These nations need to heavily invest in taking out disease carrying mosquitoes or situations like these are only going to increase.
- bayesianhorse 11y agoI sometimes wonder how much of "we never heard of x/y/z disease 10-15 years ago" is due to less frequent testing.
- ufo 11y agoDiseases like this are something that forces you go to the doctor, where its gonna gain a diagnosis. With diseases like Zika and Chikungunya the big problem is globalization and air travel.
- bayesianhorse 11y agoHow is a doctor supposed to diagnose a Virus like Zika without advanced lab tests? The symptoms are non-specific and often non-obvious. In fact, I doubt Zika virus was regularly tested for.
- blowski 11y agoAlso, social media and the 24 hour rolling news cycle give a lot more coverage than 20th Century TV news bulletins and newspapers.
- openforce 11y agoSignificant number, maybe. Penetration of medical services in these countries has increased quite a lot in the same time span. But, impact of this depends on the type of disease. Significant increase in breast cancer cases for example is I believe a direct result of increased diagnosis. But, for the increase in cases of viral diseases, I believe the majority cause is due to things like more dense population, unsanitary conditions and poor infrastructure.
- blowski 11y agoI wonder what the political fallout will be from this. It's easy to imagine Chavista and Peronist style politicians using this to their advantage.
- beambot 11y agoJust wait for the Olympics to make this a worldwide epidemic...
- threesixandnine 11y agoI was thinking the same earlier today......
- Gustomaximus 11y agoReally? In what way would this happen?
- beambot 11y agoI thought it was obvious... 2016 Summer Olympic games are being held in Brazil, the epicenter of the Zika virus pandemic. Aedes aegypti (a mosquito) is the disease vector. Tourists traveling to Brazil for the olympics will be at risk on contracting the disease and returning home. There are no known treatments or vaccines. The CDC has already issued warnings against traveling to these locations. Aedes aegypti seems to be spreading in the US, with recent sightings in Sounthern and Central California -- not to mention natural populations in the South. So yeah, it could be really bad.
- Gustomaximus 11y agoYes but catching this in Brazil and pandemic are not necessarily linked. In this article I didn't see any reference that being infected in brazil will mean is a mosquito or other transmission in your home country is likely. I know in my country of Australia only one species of mosquito can potentially carry this virus, and they exist is in a remote region itself even if they can get this virus from the human that caught it and returned to a non-infected country. Do you see where I'm coming from? I'm not saying this couldn't be a point to spread this virus around the world. However I'm not seeing any information that confirms this is a real risk other than people from around the world will be going into a live infection region. It takes much more that people simply visiting this area to make this into a Zika virus pandemic.
- JangoSteve 11y agoIt's mind-boggling to think of the societal effects this will have at the nationwide level for the countries where this is so prevalent. Entire programs that will need to be increased or completely created anew to handle the amount of people affected with microcephaly. Likewise, depending on how effective the government's urging will be, imagine being one of the few children born during those two years, having only 3 other children in your class through your entire primary and secondary education (I'm not sure what the El Salvador schooling program actually is, so these are large assumptions; but I imagine at this point, not entirely outside the realm of possibility).
- xyzzy4 11y agoSeems like a good population control. Too many people would lead to all the rainforests being cut down.
- lkrubner 11y agoLet's all remember that abortion is illegal in El Salvador, even in cases of rape. A woman who is raped and who also gets the Zika virus has no recourse. This is a very Catholic country. Access to birth control is extremely difficult. This new government recommendation is in conflict with dozens of other laws that the El Salvador government has passed, all of which are designed to maximize pregnancy.
- sago 11y agoIndeed, let's not forget that their anti-abortion laws are so strict that women have been imprisoned for more than a decade for having miscarriages, and premature (healthy) births.[0] Seems a high risk if you get pregnant in El Salvador at any time. [0]: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/dec/17/el-salvador-anti-abortion-law-premature-birth-miscarriage-attempted-murder http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/dec/17/el...
- wlievens 11y agoThat's abhorrent. As a father of three-months early twins, this hits home. It's pretty much Saudi-Arabia levels of cultural villainy.
- Justsignedup 11y agoThe real question is: Is the virus just like the flu where we kill it and life goes on? Or is the virus like herpes where it gets repressed but permanently there?
- ars 11y agoDoes anyone know if getting sick with Zika produces lifetime immunity? Because if so then women should get sick on purpose, wait to get better. Then not have to worry anymore.
- truebosko 11y agoWe just cancelled our trip to Guatemala and Belize (planned leaving date was Feb 2nd.) Just not worth the risk to go down there (Yes, my wife is pregnant) Horrifying and I hope the impact can be reduced for the people living in the affected countries.
- anonbanker 11y agoCould you imagine if China had the threat of a virus to ensure people stopped breeding for two years? Imagine the help that would've done to their depopulation campaign!
- bobthechef 11y agoFrom what I hear, the link between microcephaly and the disease is still a matter of debate.