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The Dangers of Setting VR Expectations and Valuations Too High

21 points by kawera 11y ago

stesch 11y ago
I'm learning a bit of Unity 3D on the side and wait. 2016 won't be the year of Linux on the desktop and maybe not the year of VR or AR.
mark_l_watson 11y ago
I helped found the VR Systems Lab at my company in the 1990s and later was the lead on a contracted project for Disney. I think that long term, VR will be huge, but I expect slow growth, agreeing with this article.
cma 11y ago
There have been 30million PS4s sold, by next Christmas that number will be even higher. He doesn't think Oculus, Valve, and Sony will ship more than 3 million combined. Oculus has already shipped >200k dev kits. Assuming Oculus and Valve/HTC ship at least a million (>5X the number of enthusiast/dev kits), the 3 million total would have to mean Sony only gets a <5% attachment rate. Not likely. Sony's headset will be competitive to with the Rift recommended PC specs (a GTX 970), even though it has way less power: the PSVR is primarily targeted at 60Hz reprojected to 120Hz, and it has a 1080p display that is RGB stripe instead of the Rift and Vive's pentile-esque 90Hz 1200x1080x2 displays. These two combine to mean PSVR will only have to push half as many pixels, for similar quality levels (PSVR actually has more subpixels than Rift and Vive; they throw away 33% of the subpixels you spent gobs of GPU power rendering). You aren't going to play games with fidelity of console TV stuff, but you aren't going to at the Oculus recommended spec either. He doesn't explain why he thinks it will take until 2018 for Sony to get into the millions. We know the PSVR is design is finalized. As long as it is out significantly before Christmas 2016, they should get into the millions much earlier than 2018.
- bane 11y ago
  VR has far more physical constraints and problems than normal videogames/computer usage. There's likely to be a big hype-wave [1] growth curve if it's very good because of those reasons. It's going to take a long time for people to simply reconfigure their living rooms and home offices to take advantage of VR in any numbers, even longer in a corporate environment. Plus it's unclear if people will physically want to spend lots of time moving around so they can properly interact with virtual environments. Even fairly prosaic use-cases are going to suffer from gorilla arm type interactions, and just sitting at a desk with a keyboard/mouse and headset may not be enough of an improvement over today's desktops for people to bother -- and may in fact be an interactivity downgrade in many use cases. 1 - https://gridjumper.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/picture-5.png https://gridjumper.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/picture-5.png
  - cma 11y ago
    Rift and PSVR are both targeting pretty limited mobility, neither will track the motion controllers 360 degrees in their default configuration (PSVR has only one stereo camera, Oculus is recommending two forward facing cameras, both headsets have rear LEDs so can be tracked 360 degrees, but the motion controllers can't be). I have a Vive dev kit and it is amazing, but I agree the amount space is going to be an issue. However, since Oculus and Sony aren't going to support the same freeform movement, there will be plenty of experiences that get ported to Vive that don't need a lot of space either. I haven't found gorilla arm to be an issue; most interfaces seem to be going with laser-pointer style where you don't have to have your arms out. It's more like a gyromouse. I've had no issues with pretty long sessions inside Tilt brush, which is probably the most demanding in that regard. Several new locomotion techniques are coming on line from all the experimenting that are solving the sea-sickness issue without having to dedicate an entire room to physically walking around. Here's one of the most promising ones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKnM5gC-XpY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKnM5gC-XpY , seems to have pretty much fixed things for sensitive people. The initial Oculus release with gamepad only and no motion controllers is going to be a bit of a let-down; you are right that just playing the same games seated with a gamepad or mouse and keyboard in VR probably isn't going to be enough for it to be a mass phenomenon.
- padobson 11y ago
  [...] the 3 million total would have to mean Sony only gets a <5% attachment rate. Not likely. Attach rates for hardware add-on to a video game console are historically horrible. They might be lucky to get 5%. And for gaming, it's always about the killer app. Given that we're still in a learning curve for VR game development, it's not unreasonable to say there won't be one next year.
  - cma 11y ago
    Even PS Move had a higher attach rate than that. Granted, it was cheaper than PSVR will be (especiallly since PSVR might be bundled with Move), but I would still be surprised if PSVR is very far under 5%. The main way I see it not happening is if it doesn't make it out in time for holidays with enough in stock.
  - mlonkibjuyhv 11y ago
    Stick a gran turismo in there and they are golden.
wpietri 11y ago
The thing I'm still looking for: proof that VR has crossed from novelty to something useful. Maybe somebody here has seen it? Take drones as an example. For years, people were buying them purely on novelty value. But now you can see actual commercial demand in agriculture and in filmmaking. As a counterexample, take Google Glass. Tens or hundreds of thousands of units sold. But every time I asked somebody what they were using it for, I got answers like "it's so cool!" Once the novelty value wore off, they got put in drawers and never used again. As a third, take smartwatches. When the Pebble came out, it was all novelty hype. But gradually people found uses. It's not a massive revolution, but there's enough of a market there for a small number of companies to have modest success. So far, everything I've seen for VR mirrors the '90s wave of VR enthusiasm: lots of "erhmegerd 3D" and "think of the future", but no evidence of workaday value. People have theories of what that will be, but no proof. It could be too early, of course; sometimes technologies take time to find markets. But by now with hundreds of thousands of devices in circulation, I'd expect to see some proof from early commercial adopters. Is it out there?
- danielvf 11y ago
  Elite Dangerous is really fun with a Rift. It's not a novelty that you tire if after an hour, it's fundamentally a better experience. Taking of the rift after an hour or two in Elite Dangerous makes everything on your screen feel flat and lifeless. It's like the difference between the color and black and white portions of the Wizard of Oz.
  - wpietri 11y ago
    Ah, this is in the neighborhood of what I'm after, thanks. Personal testimonial is good, but what I'm looking for is evidence that a significant number of people are paying up for this experience and continue to do so. As an example, consider 3D movies and television sets. For a while, many vendors were touting them as the next big thing, and you could find plenty of people who'd talk about well done 3D as an amazing experience. But now it's the rare movie that bothers with 3D, and manufacturers have mostly given up. There just was never the significant consumer enthusiasm that there was around, say, color film and color television.
intenscia 11y ago
Great article, I'm really enjoying the R&D going into vr at the moment and are even investing in the field myself by making VRDB.com. Despite that I believe there is going to be significant pressure from investors who are not necessarily VR enthusiasts and might not enjoy the ride as much. Let's just hope it isn't to the detriment of the future potential of VR

21 points by kawera 11y ago

I'm learning a bit of Unity 3D on the side and wait. 2016 won't be the year of Linux on the desktop and maybe not the year of VR or AR.

mark_l_watson 11y ago

I helped found the VR Systems Lab at my company in the 1990s and later was the lead on a contracted project for Disney. I think that long term, VR will be huge, but I expect slow growth, agreeing with this article.

cma 11y ago

There have been 30million PS4s sold, by next Christmas that number will be even higher. He doesn't think Oculus, Valve, and Sony will ship more than 3 million combined. Oculus has already shipped >200k dev kits. Assuming Oculus and Valve/HTC ship at least a million (>5X the number of enthusiast/dev kits), the 3 million total would have to mean Sony only gets a <5% attachment rate. Not likely. Sony's headset will be competitive to with the Rift recommended PC specs (a GTX 970), even though it has way less power: the PSVR is primarily targeted at 60Hz reprojected to 120Hz, and it has a 1080p display that is RGB stripe instead of the Rift and Vive's pentile-esque 90Hz 1200x1080x2 displays. These two combine to mean PSVR will only have to push half as many pixels, for similar quality levels (PSVR actually has more subpixels than Rift and Vive; they throw away 33% of the subpixels you spent gobs of GPU power rendering). You aren't going to play games with fidelity of console TV stuff, but you aren't going to at the Oculus recommended spec either. He doesn't explain why he thinks it will take until 2018 for Sony to get into the millions. We know the PSVR is design is finalized. As long as it is out significantly before Christmas 2016, they should get into the millions much earlier than 2018.

bane 11y ago
VR has far more physical constraints and problems than normal videogames/computer usage. There's likely to be a big hype-wave [1] growth curve if it's very good because of those reasons. It's going to take a long time for people to simply reconfigure their living rooms and home offices to take advantage of VR in any numbers, even longer in a corporate environment. Plus it's unclear if people will physically want to spend lots of time moving around so they can properly interact with virtual environments. Even fairly prosaic use-cases are going to suffer from gorilla arm type interactions, and just sitting at a desk with a keyboard/mouse and headset may not be enough of an improvement over today's desktops for people to bother -- and may in fact be an interactivity downgrade in many use cases. 1 - https://gridjumper.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/picture-5.png https://gridjumper.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/picture-5.png
- cma 11y ago
  Rift and PSVR are both targeting pretty limited mobility, neither will track the motion controllers 360 degrees in their default configuration (PSVR has only one stereo camera, Oculus is recommending two forward facing cameras, both headsets have rear LEDs so can be tracked 360 degrees, but the motion controllers can't be). I have a Vive dev kit and it is amazing, but I agree the amount space is going to be an issue. However, since Oculus and Sony aren't going to support the same freeform movement, there will be plenty of experiences that get ported to Vive that don't need a lot of space either. I haven't found gorilla arm to be an issue; most interfaces seem to be going with laser-pointer style where you don't have to have your arms out. It's more like a gyromouse. I've had no issues with pretty long sessions inside Tilt brush, which is probably the most demanding in that regard. Several new locomotion techniques are coming on line from all the experimenting that are solving the sea-sickness issue without having to dedicate an entire room to physically walking around. Here's one of the most promising ones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKnM5gC-XpY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKnM5gC-XpY , seems to have pretty much fixed things for sensitive people. The initial Oculus release with gamepad only and no motion controllers is going to be a bit of a let-down; you are right that just playing the same games seated with a gamepad or mouse and keyboard in VR probably isn't going to be enough for it to be a mass phenomenon.
padobson 11y ago
[...] the 3 million total would have to mean Sony only gets a <5% attachment rate. Not likely. Attach rates for hardware add-on to a video game console are historically horrible. They might be lucky to get 5%. And for gaming, it's always about the killer app. Given that we're still in a learning curve for VR game development, it's not unreasonable to say there won't be one next year.
- cma 11y ago
  Even PS Move had a higher attach rate than that. Granted, it was cheaper than PSVR will be (especiallly since PSVR might be bundled with Move), but I would still be surprised if PSVR is very far under 5%. The main way I see it not happening is if it doesn't make it out in time for holidays with enough in stock.
- mlonkibjuyhv 11y ago
  Stick a gran turismo in there and they are golden.

wpietri 11y ago

The thing I'm still looking for: proof that VR has crossed from novelty to something useful. Maybe somebody here has seen it? Take drones as an example. For years, people were buying them purely on novelty value. But now you can see actual commercial demand in agriculture and in filmmaking. As a counterexample, take Google Glass. Tens or hundreds of thousands of units sold. But every time I asked somebody what they were using it for, I got answers like "it's so cool!" Once the novelty value wore off, they got put in drawers and never used again. As a third, take smartwatches. When the Pebble came out, it was all novelty hype. But gradually people found uses. It's not a massive revolution, but there's enough of a market there for a small number of companies to have modest success. So far, everything I've seen for VR mirrors the '90s wave of VR enthusiasm: lots of "erhmegerd 3D" and "think of the future", but no evidence of workaday value. People have theories of what that will be, but no proof. It could be too early, of course; sometimes technologies take time to find markets. But by now with hundreds of thousands of devices in circulation, I'd expect to see some proof from early commercial adopters. Is it out there?

danielvf 11y ago
Elite Dangerous is really fun with a Rift. It's not a novelty that you tire if after an hour, it's fundamentally a better experience. Taking of the rift after an hour or two in Elite Dangerous makes everything on your screen feel flat and lifeless. It's like the difference between the color and black and white portions of the Wizard of Oz.
- wpietri 11y ago
  Ah, this is in the neighborhood of what I'm after, thanks. Personal testimonial is good, but what I'm looking for is evidence that a significant number of people are paying up for this experience and continue to do so. As an example, consider 3D movies and television sets. For a while, many vendors were touting them as the next big thing, and you could find plenty of people who'd talk about well done 3D as an amazing experience. But now it's the rare movie that bothers with 3D, and manufacturers have mostly given up. There just was never the significant consumer enthusiasm that there was around, say, color film and color television.

intenscia 11y ago

Great article, I'm really enjoying the R&D going into vr at the moment and are even investing in the field myself by making VRDB.com. Despite that I believe there is going to be significant pressure from investors who are not necessarily VR enthusiasts and might not enjoy the ride as much. Let's just hope it isn't to the detriment of the future potential of VR