xpe

43 ms·

511.
by xpe 1y ago
Do you think some arbitrary multiple defines a bubble?
512.
by xpe 1y ago
It helps me to know that there are other people noticing this. Like Fox News, a lot of comments here probably make us dumber.
513.
by xpe 1y ago
I see what you are getting at, but it is important to understand the context for my example and the argument I’m making. I’ve explained various points at length in other comments: (i) why I selected this example (simply to show that folk wi
514.
by xpe 1y ago
Rather than getting sidetracked, I will repeat the central point and question to you again: > How many people have more information than even an imperfect market-derived quantity? I’ll restate the point because I don’t think you’re under
515.
by xpe 1y ago
You misunderstand what I mean by “collective”. If you are charitable, the meaning is easy to see. “Collective” as I used it does not mean that everything or every person gets factored in.
516.
by xpe 1y ago
You seem to think that one selected analogy proves that there’s no other explanation by which something is sensible? Example: I could also make up dozens of reasons why something permitted by the laws of physics seems ridiculous.
517.
by xpe 1y ago
I think you mean hypocritical. To answer: no, and even if it was a “yes” it wouldn’t affect the argument I was making. I’ll explain. I was wondering how long it would take for this kind of meta-critique would pop up. Meta critiques are inte
518.
by xpe 1y ago
I don’t interpret the above as mean-spirited comment, but it does miss the point of the example I gave; namely, people second-guessing a market (or information heavily influenced by markets, like a new funding round) tend to lose. (Of cours
519.
by xpe 1y ago
A painting on a wall is merely an inanimate object. A company has agency; it seeks to add economic value to itself over time including changing people’s perceptions. I don’t see how your comments have any bearing to the point I was making
520.
by xpe 1y ago
Here are some ways that it’s not very far from a market mechanism: 1. How much an organization is willing to invest in X competes against other market opportunities. 2. The effective price per share (as part of the latest round of financing
521.
by xpe 1y ago
Update: I edited my comment to focus on the mindset of making predictions (including recognizing the uncertainty and being comprehensive about possible scenarios) I made a new top-level comment mentioning the 2006 YouTube acquisition only t
522.
by xpe 1y ago
Remember the YouTube acquisition? Many probably don’t since it was 2006. $1.65B. To many, it seemed bonkers. Narrow point: In general, one person’s impression of what is crazy does not fare well against market-generated information. Broader
523.
by xpe 1y ago
I don’t like to think of predicting the future as “a conclusion” of some assumptions. I don’t think it puts you in a frame of mind such that you’re genuinely curious.
524.
by xpe 1y ago
Compare with “I predict people are going to die.” Clear, testable predictions are possible if you try.
525.
by xpe 1y ago
Does someone care about this alternative speculative history? Why? If there was something called the sunk death fallacy, I would invoke it.
526.
by xpe 1y ago
> Everyone knows how to build these models now, it just takes a ton of cash to do it. This ignores differential quality, efficiency, partnerships, and lots more.
527.
by xpe 1y ago
No disrespect to anyone in particular*, but I don’t care about one person’s armchair quarterback “feelings” about investment levels, bubbles, or <vague term that you won’t define>. Give me something I can learn from. * I’m an equal o
528.
by xpe 1y ago
Perhaps there are salient differences between art on a wall and a company.
529.
by xpe 1y ago
> There is a ton of bias on Wikipedia. I would rephrase the question as "what kinds of bias systemically point in a particular direction?" - If by "bias" one means "following the principles set out in Wikipedia&#
530.
by xpe 1y ago
> Sending the National Guard into DC is in fact a distraction. Depends what you mean. It also plays in to Trump's "tough on crime" message, which appeals to a fairly broad group of voters. It also appeals to MAGA fanatics
531.
by xpe 1y ago
Have you weighed factors that would push in the other direction? This requires a synthesis, and it requires breaking out of the tendency to only think about factors that support one narrative. To the extent watermarking technology builds tr
532.
by xpe 1y ago
Are you expecting a distilled model to be sufficiently powerful to capture the watermark? I wouldn’t. Additionally, I don’t think the watermark has to be deterministic.
533.
by xpe 1y ago
Maybe as the direct effect, maybe not. Also think about second order effects: how would various interests respond? The desire for privacy is strong and people will search for ways to get it. Have you looked into kinds of mitigations that c
534.
by xpe 1y ago
You aren’t specifying your point of comparison. A nightmare relative to what? You might be saying a nightmare relative to what we have now. Are you? We once considered text to be generated exclusively by humans, but this assumption must be
535.
by xpe 1y ago
I did a LOT of road bike racing a while back. Out of a large starting group (often 60+), one person wins.* Being prepared helps -- you want your fitness dialed and your equipment in good shape. But then Shih Tzu happens, even if you have th
536.
by xpe 1y ago
I would expect most of us here have faced many rejections, some of which were deeply painful. When you care about something, some say, losing it hurts. (But was there ever a guarantee? Or was it only an expectation?) Some people find ways t
537.
by xpe 1y ago
> While this post doesn't directly demonstrate a victim mentality, it suggests internalizing the rejection ("My best wasn't good enough. I'm not good enough.")... Well said. While it might have only been the reco
538.
by xpe 1y ago
This claim is exaggerated too far in the other direction. I try to spiral in towards the gravity well of truth rather than slingshot out of the solar system.
539.
by xpe 1y ago
> Unless they did something truly bizarre there wasn't room for being subjective Without having been there, I have a sense of what you mean, but I do want to add: 1. Statistically speaking, there will misinterpretation and even outr
540.
by xpe 1y ago
I feel you, but there is a big difference between (a) "justification" in the overall cost versus benefit to all parties involved and (b) the narrowly self-interested thing to do.

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