2 ms·
Here are some ways that it’s not very far from a market mechanism: 1. How much an organization is willing to invest in X competes against other market opportun
by xpe 1y ago
Here are some ways that it’s not very far from a market mechanism:
1. How much an organization is willing to invest in X competes against other market opportunities.
2. The effective price per share (as part of the latest round of financing) is an implicit negotiation.
It is a matter of degree, sure, but my point still stands: there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation. So an individual should be intellectually humble relative to that. How many people have more information than even an imperfect market-derived quantity?
- fidotron 1y ago> there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation No, there isn't. For example, I would like to legally bet against Anthropic existing as a going concern in five years. Where can I do this? All the information against them is discarded and hidden.
- xpe 1y agoYou misunderstand what I mean by “collective”. If you are charitable, the meaning is easy to see. “Collective” as I used it does not mean that everything or every person gets factored in.
- xpe 1y agoRather than getting sidetracked, I will repeat the central point and question to you again: > How many people have more information than even an imperfect market-derived quantity? I’ll restate the point because I don’t think you’re understanding what I mean. Do you think this funding round was irrational from the point of view of the investors? If so, how can you make such a claim? Do you have information they do not? It is possible you have some bit of knowledge they don’t, but on balance it is unlikely that you are operating from a position of having more relevant information.