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Update: I edited my comment to focus on the mindset of making predictions (including recognizing the uncertainty and being comprehensive about possible scenario

by xpe 1y ago

Update: I edited my comment to focus on the mindset of making predictions (including recognizing the uncertainty and being comprehensive about possible scenarios) I made a new top-level comment mentioning the 2006 YouTube acquisition only to show that many people were shocked, but -surprise- markets are usually better predictors than individual hunches.

fidotron 1y ago
This isn't a market in that sense though - it's very much one sided what Anthropic tells us and they are privately traded. It is very far from a situation where the price discovery mechanism is allowed to work.
- xpe 1y ago
  Here are some ways that it’s not very far from a market mechanism: 1. How much an organization is willing to invest in X competes against other market opportunities. 2. The effective price per share (as part of the latest round of financing) is an implicit negotiation. It is a matter of degree, sure, but my point still stands: there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation. So an individual should be intellectually humble relative to that. How many people have more information than even an imperfect market-derived quantity?
  - fidotron 1y ago
    > there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation No, there isn't. For example, I would like to legally bet against Anthropic existing as a going concern in five years. Where can I do this? All the information against them is discarded and hidden.
    - xpe 1y ago
      You misunderstand what I mean by “collective”. If you are charitable, the meaning is easy to see. “Collective” as I used it does not mean that everything or every person gets factored in.
    - xpe 1y ago
      Rather than getting sidetracked, I will repeat the central point and question to you again: > How many people have more information than even an imperfect market-derived quantity? I’ll restate the point because I don’t think you’re understanding what I mean. Do you think this funding round was irrational from the point of view of the investors? If so, how can you make such a claim? Do you have information they do not? It is possible you have some bit of knowledge they don’t, but on balance it is unlikely that you are operating from a position of having more relevant information.

by xpe 1y ago

fidotron 1y ago

This isn't a market in that sense though - it's very much one sided what Anthropic tells us and they are privately traded. It is very far from a situation where the price discovery mechanism is allowed to work.

xpe 1y ago
Here are some ways that it’s not very far from a market mechanism: 1. How much an organization is willing to invest in X competes against other market opportunities. 2. The effective price per share (as part of the latest round of financing) is an implicit negotiation. It is a matter of degree, sure, but my point still stands: there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation. So an individual should be intellectually humble relative to that. How many people have more information than even an imperfect market-derived quantity?
- fidotron 1y ago
  > there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation No, there isn't. For example, I would like to legally bet against Anthropic existing as a going concern in five years. Where can I do this? All the information against them is discarded and hidden.
  - xpe 1y ago
    You misunderstand what I mean by “collective”. If you are charitable, the meaning is easy to see. “Collective” as I used it does not mean that everything or every person gets factored in.
  - xpe 1y ago
    Rather than getting sidetracked, I will repeat the central point and question to you again: > How many people have more information than even an imperfect market-derived quantity? I’ll restate the point because I don’t think you’re understanding what I mean. Do you think this funding round was irrational from the point of view of the investors? If so, how can you make such a claim? Do you have information they do not? It is possible you have some bit of knowledge they don’t, but on balance it is unlikely that you are operating from a position of having more relevant information.