usaar333

48 ms·

571.
by usaar333 7y ago
thanks for the tip; will edit
572.
by usaar333 7y ago
Do you believe Zhejiang was as widely tested as Iceland? Their fatality rates are lower than the widely tested Iceland (or literally anywhere in the world), which still has a pandemic ongoing. In fact none of the province numbers are belie
573.
by usaar333 7y ago
> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Well, this jibes with reality. I could care less about actual case counts - few countries are clos
574.
by usaar333 7y ago
Again, I don't subscribe to the hypothesis that flu iir = covid iir, but what you are seeing isn't incompatible with that hypothesis. The hypothesis is that iir is the same, but covid has a way higher transmission rate. So what y
575.
by usaar333 7y ago
Right and the "flu iir = covid iir" hypothesis would still lead to the real world pandemic being far worse (that's pretty obvious to anyone). You still have a disease with no vaccine that transmits extremely fast. What would
576.
by usaar333 7y ago
> I.e. once you’re over eighty, you have almost a 1% probability to die within the next month. True absolutely, but not true if you condition on me being fit enough for a cruise today.
577.
by usaar333 7y ago
I actually don't think deep analyses comparing covid to flu are outright bs, even if I'm skeptical covid could have such a low death rate. Reading a lot, I've generally come to the conclusion that IFR of covid-19 is under an
578.
by usaar333 7y ago
Where did you read that? 10/710 infections on the Diamond Princess died. Would you expect flu to kill that many? (Older population but healthier than average older population).
579.
by usaar333 7y ago
Different countries are defining this differently. China uses the type of definition you are using so their deaths from covid (or even flu) are really low. Italy is using the definion of had virus at death, which results in a possible over
580.
by usaar333 7y ago
Sweden is almost certainly growing faster than Norway. Norway is testing more broadly (note the 6x death rate in Sweden) and they have similar case count growth per day (implying Sweden might actually be growing 3x as fast factoring populat
581.
by usaar333 7y ago
Emissions at most were exponential until 2010 or so. The growth rate since then has been drastically lower, in part because developed countries are reducing: https://www.iea.org/articles/global-co2-emissions-in-2019
582.
by usaar333 7y ago
That claim doesn't match reality. Ppm growth by year is sub-exponential even if above linear (looks like quadratic is a better first order approximation): https://datahub.io/core/co2-ppm Actual temperature rise is
583.
by usaar333 7y ago
605 per million, not absolutely. King County has 2.2 million people.
584.
by usaar333 7y ago
in what way? King County, WA is at 605 and growth has flatlined (without an SIP in place). Manhattan is 2.5x that at 1500+ and probably growing much faster (very high testing rate true positives compared to WA). Westchester is the worst i
585.
by usaar333 7y ago
The measures that have in place in both states have drastically clamped down on infection rates - the growth in WA is barely above linear at this point (and remember you are always looking 10 days backward). CA is also sub-exponential. Loo
586.
by usaar333 7y ago
> ,New York and Washington are not struggling Completely different worlds. New York is in some serious trouble. No one is going to even remember Washington has an outbreak in a week's time - it's probably already past peak new
587.
by usaar333 7y ago
That rate is highly unlikely to hold. There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so. FWIW, at this point, it looks like NYC is going to take a huge hit and the other outbreaks (Seattle, C
588.
by usaar333 7y ago
Do most adults prefer WFH? I mean sure, I prefer WFH if I have a 2 hour round trip commute, but on a 30 minute or less? The office interactions are worth it.
589.
by usaar333 7y ago
Well for kids under 12 or so, we move them to a classroom in part because it offers babysitting. It also works better. My almost 4 year old isn't learning much with remote learning and it's also just taking out parent productivit
590.
by usaar333 7y ago
https://covid-19.direct/state/NY
591.
by usaar333 7y ago
Well yes, but they also almost certainly have it the worst. Their testing rate is not even particularly high - Washington State has tested more per capita and has a drastically lower positive rate https://covid-19.direct/sta
592.
by usaar333 7y ago
Huh? "R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population."
593.
by usaar333 7y ago
Travel certainly will be hurt. All said, my guess is the hardest hit travel industry will be cruises, followed by resorts, followed by business travel (we've all learned to work remotely better). Vacation rentals will take a hit but
594.
by usaar333 7y ago
> At some point we do have to consider that shutting down the majority of the economy will ruin more lives than letting the virus infect everyone. At $10M/life, 1M deaths in the US is a $10 trillion cost. That's 50% of GDP - I
595.
by usaar333 7y ago
I don't see any scenario where you could hit 60% of the population that fast. I mean sure, if you held up the same R0, yes, that math works out, but people aren't trees. They'll voluntarily socially distance, dropping R0 sign
596.
by usaar333 7y ago
Economically - if it all happened immediately, probably less than you think given it's mostly concentrated in an older age group past working age. Second order effects would be huge though and you'd still take all sorts of economi
597.
by usaar333 7y ago
really? I just walked by a residential construction site near my house today and saw it proceeding as usual.
598.
by usaar333 7y ago
This is a great move, but I'm not sure how this will hold up unless the state seals its border. If the entire country doesn't follow suite, is that the next step?
599.
by usaar333 7y ago
A lot of those jobs are exempted as essential workers. Even residential housing construction workers are exempted.
600.
by usaar333 7y ago
Didn't NY (Cuomo) argue that their restrictions are almost exactly the same as California's? In fact, in what way is NY more permissive at this point?

More ›