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That rate is highly unlikely to hold. There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so. FWIW, at this point, it lo
by usaar333 7y ago
That rate is highly unlikely to hold. There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so.
FWIW, at this point, it looks like NYC is going to take a huge hit and the other outbreaks (Seattle, California) will look mild comparitively.
- joe_the_user 7y agoWashington state doesn't have a statewide lockdown, I don't know if even Seattle has a lockdown. California is doing the best but there are still crowds defying the lockdown at beaches and parks. Just as much, grocery stores are open as usual and even with most people trying to do social distancing, I'm doubtful you're clamping that hard on the infection, unfortunately. I think the best is that when fatalities spike here in California, we're in better shape to intensify the lockdown.
- rbritton 7y agoWashington does as of 5:00 pm PDT today.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- DoreenMichele 7y agoI've dug through everything I can find. I'm feeling really stupid at the moment, but I cannot find a confirmation of that 5pm start time, though it does appear to start today and "immediately." It runs through April 6, but could be extended. Tweet is from 6:50pm: https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1242267557295321090 https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1242267557295321090 https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-stay-home-stay-healthy-order-4891a7511f5e https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-stay-home-sta... https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamations/20-25%20Coronovirus%20Stay%20Safe-Stay%20Healthy%20%28tmp%29%20%28002%29.pdf https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamation...
- rbritton 7y agoThat’s when the announcement of it was broadcast, which is why I used that time.
- DoreenMichele 7y agoThanks.
- usaar333 7y agoThe measures that have in place in both states have drastically clamped down on infection rates - the growth in WA is barely above linear at this point (and remember you are always looking 10 days backward). CA is also sub-exponential. Look at the data (in the presence of high testing): https://covid-19.direct/state/WA https://covid-19.direct/state/WA If you look at thermometer data (less accurate, but a good predictor), there's little problem going forward in either state. (but serious problems in the NY metro area): https://healthweather.us/ https://healthweather.us/
- joe_the_user 7y agoTo my eyes, California just looks slower exponential and Washington is ambiguous. A few days of non-growth can be randomness or reporting problems. But I hope you're right! We all need to do our parts. I'd also note that things are getting "hot" in other states and each has it's problems.
- int_19h 7y agoAt least some of WA's lower numbers recently were due to fewer tests performed.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- cma 7y agoDeaths lag measures by more than that. We might see Washington’s measures kicking in strong by then but NY will probably be some time.
- joe_the_user 7y agoYes, death lags and testing is inaccurate. We're flying blind.
- droithomme 7y agoI wonder. Willing to admit incorrect if parent prediction proves true? Or pivot if not to a new supposition and declare victory? (I'd say 3.5 weeks myself.)
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Zombieball 7y ago> There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so. Why do you think that?
- ccktlmazeltov 7y agoI have no strong opinion but I really hope that the fact that the US is not dense, and people are not very tactile, compared to European cities will help us.