tliptay

5 ms·

1. 1.▲
   by tliptay 3mo ago

   I'm jealous that this does not refer to us: "I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months." I also talked to him and 100% believe he was able to pul
2. 2.▲
   by tliptay 6mo ago

   Wow! This comment inspired me to dig deeper. After 20+ years in the market, today I learned: "The S&P 500 is a float-adjusted, market-capitalization-weighted index." So presumably an S&P 500 index fund is not disadvantaged
3. 3.▲
   by tliptay 6mo ago

   Grok: lots of competitors & my 4th choice in LLM models. Starship: zero competitors & potentially makes humans inter-planetary. Seems crazy if investors put more value on Grok.
4. 4.▲
   by tliptay 7mo ago

   I've seen something similar with forecasting. I can get more accurate forecasts by having distinct agents do different research tasks, summarize, and then feed those summaries to an agent that uses judgment to forecast. I think it is a
5. 5.▲
   by tliptay 7mo ago

   Is there any lesson here for non-devs (like me) who are using CC to write some pretty long, gnarly notebooks. The problem I have recently run into is that CC vibe codes really long code with lots of checks. But, then when I want to modify i