spacemark

12 ms·

91.
by spacemark 5y ago
As someone who has worked on NASA contracts pretty much my whole career, you're quite right. Starship is still extremely unproven. If you look at the history of rockets, mayyyybe 1 in 5 that make it to an orbital launch debut (which
92.
by spacemark 5y ago
>My puzzle is why don't we? We are. >What's preventing the rapid and widespread application of ecological knowledge and practice? Nothing. It's happening. In so many ways. It's just that it looks different than you
93.
by spacemark 5y ago
Despite the rude response from the previous commenter, I agree with the general response. It seems like you're suggesting we all revert to subsistence living by growing our own food on little family farms or something. Fact is people a
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by spacemark 5y ago
So basically, engineers estimate complexity and the manager converts that to time? Still sounds like estimating with time to me.
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by spacemark 5y ago
Bingo, great read. Thanks for linking!
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by spacemark 5y ago
Back when I flew gliders, every educated pilot knew that the intermediate (aka "avid") pilots killed themselves the most. This is well established statistically. Overconfidence, complaisance with risk, etc.
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by spacemark 5y ago
Very well put. Hans Rosling (RIP) in his book "Factfulness" talks about how the leaders of a nation or even the system of government make very little difference in the rising standard of living in a given country. What makes the d
98.
by spacemark 5y ago
...or the fact that the only way to get this information is a HN comment from an independent Amazon consultant.
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by spacemark 5y ago
Please tell me this comment is satire... honestly can't tell these days.
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by spacemark 5y ago
Meh, I don't really have a dog in this fight, but the tone of this thread is pretty clear. First or second-level comments from the first page most upvoted responses. There are unsubstantiated claims, needlessly hyperbolic descriptors,
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by spacemark 5y ago
The fact that it's happening isn't being disputed. The prediction that it will be catastrophic is. The NASA article you linked is reputable, but pay attention to what it actually says - it makes no predictions of impact severity.
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by spacemark 5y ago
Stop listening to people who have no idea what they're talking about, have an agenda, or are otherwise compromised in their rational position. If you do that, this entire idea that all is lost will become much more tempered - we have a
103.
by spacemark 5y ago
Can you link to some sources on point B? From what I've read you'll find broad scientific consensus on your point A but your point B is not even close to widely accepted among climate scientists. That said I've learned the sc
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by spacemark 5y ago
Those phrases are taken directly from comments in this thread. I agree that we should discuss all possible scenarios. But a lot of the extreme scenarios being parroted are just bonkers, scientifically speaking.
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by spacemark 5y ago
That article doesn't say anything about how much methane is being released. The fact that it's happening isn't being disputed. The prediction that it will be catastrophic is.
106.
by spacemark 5y ago
Yes, let's stick to the science. Which says we have problems, yes, but the narrative so many on here are parroting (all is lost, the gun has already gone off, the world will be uninhabitable) is not remotely close to the predictions ev
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by spacemark 5y ago
Sorry, where are climate change deniers being forced to convert "by the sword?" There are elements of your comment that are worth listening to, others give into hyperbole which reduces your credibility.
108.
by spacemark 5y ago
That's not good risk analysis. Severity is one axis, likelihood of occurring is another.
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by spacemark 5y ago
...if it happens. So far there's no scientific consensus that such a thing is likely to happen.
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by spacemark 5y ago
Yup, it's a heuristic that doesn't work all the time, but it works a lot better than concluding there are no answers.
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by spacemark 5y ago
In the case of a question or topic of research that does not yet have a consensus answer among experts, the answer usually lies near the median of reasonable expert positions. Most "news" stories of Carrington Event-type catastrop
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by spacemark 5y ago
There are other options in this class, such as the Nyx Tracker at $125.
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by spacemark 6y ago
For sure. You'll find that our notions of our own world and societies are also very outdated on average due to how rapidly they're changing (and by and large improving). A wonderful, easy to read book on this that I recommend is F
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by spacemark 6y ago
Absolutely, very well said. Our understanding of the cosmos has changed dramatically in the past 100 years. People forget that we were still debating whether galaxies beyond our own existed (!!!!!!!) just 100 years ago. https://e
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by spacemark 6y ago
So are you saying the assertion that rich countries spend far more CO2 per capita than poorer countries is incorrect? What studies would you point to that offer a more accurate estimate?
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by spacemark 6y ago
As with most categories, labels, and taxonomy, the dichotomy is a human construct. Of course it's not true absolutely. But it still has utility to ponder, and when applied to specific contexts can be powerful.
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by spacemark 6y ago
Nope, Molnaya orbits appear to dwell for a very long time at their apogee. That's why they're popular for Russian spy satellites.
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by spacemark 6y ago
Oh, good. So the next time WW2 rolls around we'll all be prepared.
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by spacemark 6y ago
When I was younger I thought it absolutely baffling that some of my educated, reasonable friends and relatives elected for home births, given the obvious increases in risk. It wasn't until I realized how absolutely terrible the hospi
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by spacemark 6y ago
Belief has nothing to do with forming and testing hypotheses. You don't "believe" in evolution or the big bang or an old earth. Scientific inquiry 101. And sure, I get your overall point. I was Christian until age 26. I worke

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