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...if it happens. So far there's no scientific consensus that such a thing is likely to happen.

carlmr 5y ago
The problem with these events is that we should err on the side of caution, since the other side may well be catastrophic.
- spacemark 5y ago
  That's not good risk analysis. Severity is one axis, likelihood of occurring is another.
  - carlmr 5y ago
    Which is exactly my point. If something is 100x as bad as the alternative and "only" 10% likely, that's still a very high ~10x expectation of badness.
maxlamb 5y ago
Isn’t it already happening? https://earther.gizmodo.com/methane-is-blowing-more-holes-in-the-arctic-1846242991 https://earther.gizmodo.com/methane-is-blowing-more-holes-in...
- spacemark 5y ago
  That article doesn't say anything about how much methane is being released. The fact that it's happening isn't being disputed. The prediction that it will be catastrophic is.
  - titzer 5y ago
    Oh, it will absolutely be catastrophic if the Siberian tundra thaws. Have you seen the estimates for how much carbon is locked in the permafrost? It's more carbon than is in the atmosphere today. [1] [1] https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html
  - maxlamb 5y ago
    17 million tons of methane in 2013 and rapidly increasing. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      So, is that a lot or a little? How much do cows produce? How much does human activity release? (Honest question; I don't know.)
      - knuthsat 5y ago
        It's estimated there's 1300G tons of methane stored in tundra. 1300 * 10^9 is about 100 years of 2020 CO2 activity. 13 * 10^6 is 100/1000 years of 2020 CO2 activity, I guess.
titzer 5y ago
> ...if it happens. Did you mean to write "if it keeps speeding up"? Because it is most definitely happening, it is speeding up [1], and it doesn't look likely to slow down. [1] https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146978/methane-emissions-continue-to-rise https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146978/methane-emis...
- spacemark 5y ago
  The fact that it's happening isn't being disputed. The prediction that it will be catastrophic is. The NASA article you linked is reputable, but pay attention to what it actually says - it makes no predictions of impact severity. What the article DOES say: methane is responsible for 1/4 of all global warming, it's increased 9% in the last decade, and 250% in the last 17 decades (avg 15%/year).

The problem with these events is that we should err on the side of caution, since the other side may well be catastrophic.

spacemark 5y ago
That's not good risk analysis. Severity is one axis, likelihood of occurring is another.
- carlmr 5y ago
  Which is exactly my point. If something is 100x as bad as the alternative and "only" 10% likely, that's still a very high ~10x expectation of badness.

maxlamb 5y ago

Isn’t it already happening? https://earther.gizmodo.com/methane-is-blowing-more-holes-in-the-arctic-1846242991 https://earther.gizmodo.com/methane-is-blowing-more-holes-in...

spacemark 5y ago
That article doesn't say anything about how much methane is being released. The fact that it's happening isn't being disputed. The prediction that it will be catastrophic is.
- titzer 5y ago
  Oh, it will absolutely be catastrophic if the Siberian tundra thaws. Have you seen the estimates for how much carbon is locked in the permafrost? It's more carbon than is in the atmosphere today. [1] [1] https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html
- maxlamb 5y ago
  17 million tons of methane in 2013 and rapidly increasing. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    So, is that a lot or a little? How much do cows produce? How much does human activity release? (Honest question; I don't know.)
    - knuthsat 5y ago
      It's estimated there's 1300G tons of methane stored in tundra. 1300 * 10^9 is about 100 years of 2020 CO2 activity. 13 * 10^6 is 100/1000 years of 2020 CO2 activity, I guess.

titzer 5y ago

> ...if it happens. Did you mean to write "if it keeps speeding up"? Because it is most definitely happening, it is speeding up [1], and it doesn't look likely to slow down. [1] https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146978/methane-emissions-continue-to-rise https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146978/methane-emis...

spacemark 5y ago
The fact that it's happening isn't being disputed. The prediction that it will be catastrophic is. The NASA article you linked is reputable, but pay attention to what it actually says - it makes no predictions of impact severity. What the article DOES say: methane is responsible for 1/4 of all global warming, it's increased 9% in the last decade, and 250% in the last 17 decades (avg 15%/year).