skepticATX

6 ms·

31.
by skepticATX 2y ago
There are more oddities for sure. For example, when they cancel a multi-year contract they are considering the entire value of the contract as savings even if a significant chunk of the money has already been distributed.
32.
by skepticATX 2y ago
I think this was an honest mistake. But it demonstrates exactly why it’s so dangerous for Elon Musk and our president to make sweeping accusations before understanding the situation. Lives are being ruined right now - federal employees, cit
33.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Yes, there’s practically no chance that this is true.
34.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Clearly it's not happening tomorrow, but eventually Democrats (and maybe even Republicans who want to uphold the constitution!) will be in the majority.
35.
by skepticATX 2y ago
I think you're specifically referring to the Pentagon. I'd like to see Elon attempt to force his way into that building next.
36.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Not a lawyer, but it would seem that Elon and Doge employees are exposing themselves up to significant legal liability here. Maybe Trump pardons Elon (if they don't fall out before then), but is he going to pardon everyone who has a ha
37.
by skepticATX 2y ago
All life is due respect and consideration. Of course, a human life gets the maximum consideration, and an insect life much less. Plant life even less, but some. Capability to feel pain doesn’t have anything to do with this, in my mind.
38.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Here's why I know that OpenAI is stuck in a hype cycle. For all of 2024, the cry from employees was "PhD level models are coming this year; just imagine what you can do when everyone has PhD level intelligence at their beck and ca
39.
by skepticATX 2y ago
You have hit on something that really bothers me about recent AGI discourse. It’s common to claim that “all” researchers agree that AGI is imminent, and yet when you dive into these claims “all” is a subset of researchers that excludes ever
40.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Interestingly, there seems to be no actual government involvement aside from the announcement taking place at the White House. It all seems to be private money.
41.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Why are corporations announcing business deals from the White House? There doesn’t seem to be any public ownership/benefit here, aside from potential job creation. Which could be significant. But the American public doesn’t seem to gai
42.
by skepticATX 2y ago
It’s interesting to me that a certain type of person is so susceptible to buying into this fable of wokeness, especially when it pertains to universities. Almost like there is a woke mind virus, but it’s not infecting the people they think
43.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Great catch. Super disappointing that AI companies continue to do things like this. It’s a great result either way but predictably the excitement is focused on the jump from o1, which is now in question.
44.
by skepticATX 2y ago
I felt this same way as image generation was rapidly improving, but I've been caught by surprise and impressed with how resilient we have been in the face of it. Turns out it's surprisingly, at least for me, to tune out the slop.
45.
by skepticATX 2y ago
It’s not an exact figure, but plenty of employees claimed that after we train a model with 2-3 orders of magnitude of compute over GPT-4 we’d reach AGI, which puts us at $10-$100 billion. See Situational Awareness for one example of this.
46.
by skepticATX 2y ago
What frustrates me the most about OpenAI is that as recently as this summer they were talking non-stop about how gigantic $100 billion models are all you need for AGI and that it’s just a matter of time until we reach this scale. And if you
47.
by skepticATX 2y ago
The loudest opinions surface. I wouldn’t take lack of public sympathy to mean that the average American condones this type of behavior. I am no more sympathetic than I am towards the many people killed each day in the US, but I think the as
48.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Elon and Vivek have no authority to close a federal agency, and Trump doesn’t either. We’re currently in the bloviating stage of this election cycle; once attention dies down I fully expect DOGE to achieve very little and to die a slow deat
49.
by skepticATX 2y ago
I think it’ll keep improving as more folks move over. This is just a temporary artifact of X refugees being the first to migrate.
50.
by skepticATX 2y ago
My feeling is that this is one reason they decided to hide the reasoning tokens.
51.
by skepticATX 2y ago
> People should realize we’re reaching the point where LLMs are surpassing humans in any task limited in scope enough to be a “benchmark This seems like a bold statement considering we have so few benchmarks, and so many of them are poor
52.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Why does no one read the actual proposal before commenting? It specifically states that this only applies to individuals with 80% of their wealth in tradeable assets. No founder is going to lose control because this doesn’t apply to them!
53.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Zoning and car-centric design are intimately connected, though. A walkable suburb just can’t support the number of cars that a typical western suburb supports today. If you loosen zoning, what you’re going to end up with is denser developme
54.
by skepticATX 2y ago
I’d argue that by definition, code producing value is good code. It may not be the best, but it has to be at least good. Almost everything else about code is subjective, but value is objective.
55.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Exactly. All this reporting says is that the actress wasn’t explicitly told to copy “Her”. We still don’t know about the intentions of OpenAI throughout all of this. With Sam’s seeming obsession with the movie, are we really supposed to bel
56.
by skepticATX 2y ago
I don’t believe in the AGI claims, or in X-Risk. But I do think it’s apparent that AI will only become more powerful and ubiquitous. Very concerning that someone like Sam, with a history of dishonesty and narcissism that is only becoming mo
57.
by skepticATX 2y ago
There are models that are nearly as good as GPT-4 now. For personal usage, I've been using them for a while now. OpenAI has jumped the shark so much that I'm going to advocate for moving to Anthropic/Google models at work now
58.
by skepticATX 2y ago
You're right, this isn't a view that is likely to be shared by the general public. However, I don't think the general public's view of OpenAI is much better at this point, given that their exposure is Hinton on 60 Minute
59.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Interesting that OpenAI has completely destroyed their reputation over the last year. For me, they've gone from an admirable company to cringe-worthy. I really think that the best outcome here is for OpenAI to collapse and get absorbed
60.
by skepticATX 2y ago
All I’d like to see from AI safety folks is an empirical argument demonstrating that we’re remotely close to AGI, and that AGI is dangerous. Sorry, but sci-fi novels are not going to cut it here. If anything, the last year and a half have j

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