sershe

98 ms·

961.
by sershe 6y ago
What is the official end game? Are they hoping that it will be eliminated worldwide, will they continue in this mode indefinitely assuming it won't be, or do they plan to basically close the borders forever (i.e. anyone who enters has
962.
by sershe 6y ago
> People are staying home because they're scared of dying. You don't fix that by changing the closure rules. No, they are not. There are huge crowds everywhere that gets reopened (or not closed) in CA, WA, FL. My favorite examp
963.
by sershe 6y ago
And where are those numbers coming from? 1) Taking this https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm and combining with SS Life Expectancy tables, the average years lost per death is ~12; that co
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by sershe 7y ago
Yes, basically it's sort of a filter to get the people who coast mostly out. Free college means everybody goes to college for bad reasons, or no reason at all, just because everybody else does. I mean, some people openly told me they j
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by sershe 7y ago
In iirc 8th grade, I've placed high in the final round of a Moscow-wide physics competition, incidentally hosted by MSU. My classmate, who placed even higher, and myself have received an invitation to enroll in the MSU-affiliated math
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by sershe 7y ago
Interesting, I feel like I have the same problem for the opposite reason - things I cared about came easy to me in HS and college, so I never learned to put in effort as much as others had to; if the task is daunting I am likely to just giv
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by sershe 7y ago
That is not at all clear. The Nembro article, which based solely on the article itself looks like the ~upper bound on the ~worst case, posits 1% age adjusted deaths. The world population pyramid is very different from Italy's, so I bet
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by sershe 7y ago
Based solely on their own emails and mailings, ACLU these days is a pale shadow of its former self. They have successfully convinced me to cancel my membership... instead of being about civil liberties, these days it's just another gen
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by sershe 7y ago
This is a good example of why strong negative rights and freedoms are so important. We don't want, and I quote you, "idiots" dictating what others can and cannot do based mostly on their rightful indignation.
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by sershe 7y ago
I used to bike up to Skyline on Old La Honda road. I didn't consider it to be really impressive nature... at least not compared to the above mentioned cities. IMHO there are too many people and built-up land there (a general problem in
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by sershe 7y ago
Never been to Pittsburgh, but what do you miss, other than the weather? I lived there for 3 years (Mountain View, SoMa, Inner Richmond), and outside of work it's basically a giant cluster of generic burbs and gridlock, with a filthy me
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by sershe 7y ago
As someone who grew up outside of the USA, I feel like the problem in America is the diametrically opposite one. People have too much faith in "normality", rule of law and relative stability and don't realize that stuff like
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by sershe 7y ago
They are past the peak (again based on the info from the original article), so it doesn't seem likely the numbers will change a lot; not to the level of 6%/3%/other numbers being suggested in other sources.
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by sershe 7y ago
There's a saying in Russia, or rather a hope some opposition figures voiced, that one day "the fridge will beat the TV", i.e. the economic mismanagement and poor living conditions (the empty fridge) will overpower the TV (ful
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by sershe 7y ago
You can still go if you are not taking orthogonal risks. We just cancelled our rock climbing vacation because we intended to do some stuff that's hard for us and I don't want to end up in a hospital for unrelated reason and take u
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by sershe 7y ago
Isn't that the part of Italy where hospital collapse actually happened? And in the same article they conjecture they are now at ~herd immunity. And the demographics are skewed towards the elderly so again they themselves estimated the
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by sershe 7y ago
What impact? First, the worst case estimate with soft distancing from the Imperial College paper everyone is quoting is 1M in the US. Even if it isn't an overestimate (their models have tons of assumptions and past pandemic estimates f
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by sershe 7y ago
Disruption from Spanish Flu was short-lived, and yes the damage caused is from the lockdown, not the pandemic. In the worst-affected areas (except maybe on small city level), the deaths are still a blip. If there was no media circus around
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by sershe 7y ago
How do you count the impact of economic disruption on people? Even on the lower end, you should count fractional loss of life for people forced into survival mode, the stress, etc. You also have to count knock-on effects on people who becom
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by sershe 7y ago
The reason this is first happening in Hungary is only because Orban was already both more eager for, and more capable of, such a step. I suspect this is just the beginning. Remember when after 9/11 it was absolutely necessary to curta
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by sershe 7y ago
Let me get this straight (all of these are straight from the article): 1) Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. 2) hypothesis - not at all remote - [is] that all cit
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by sershe 7y ago
That would suck. Airbnb is great if you need housing in a weird location with no hotels (e.g. walking distance from something in Santa Clara), it's great for extra privacy (e.g. getting a TH in a quiet area in Europe away from both you
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by sershe 7y ago
[citation needed]
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by sershe 7y ago
I'm tired of this story (1 above) frankly. Have you been anywhere with lockdown as it was being ramped up? I don't know where those right thinking people are, but even after everything-except-the-stay-at-home order in WA (i.e. eve
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by sershe 7y ago
What was the hit to the economy from Spanish Flu, that also mostly killed the young? What is the specific serious hit to the real economy that you expect, other that short-term, from "bodies piling up"? Sure, I agree it's ter
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by sershe 7y ago
I had a great experience with original Zeo, at least as far as I can tell timing and correlation-with-next-day wise. Unfortunately, they went out of business and the headband battery is not (easily?) replaceable, so once that ran out it bec
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by sershe 7y ago
"The most deadly event in recorder history" apparently you are not very familiar with recorded history. Incidentally, Great Depression allowed a certain populist guy to come to power in a European country and to unleash an event t
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by sershe 7y ago
People aren't not going to stores, etc. because of the virus. In WA this weekend, with lockdown theater in full force, there were tons of groups eating outside restaurants on benches and grass out of takeout containers, hiking trailhea
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by sershe 7y ago
Why won't you have a functioning economy? How long did the effect of Spanish flu on the economy last? And that one mostly killed young people.
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by sershe 7y ago
According to a recent study from Columbia University up to 86% cases are undetected based on pre-lockdown Chinese data. That would bring this number down to ~1.1%. That is in the oldest-skewing population out there, barely any containment (

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