That is not at all clear. The Nembro article, which based solely on the article itself looks like the ~upper bound on the ~worst case, posits 1% age adjusted de

That is not at all clear. The Nembro article, which based solely on the article itself looks like the ~upper bound on the ~worst case, posits 1% age adjusted deaths. The world population pyramid is very different from Italy's, so I bet it won't even be 1%. Then, it's not about lives, it's about years of life lost. The average age of the deaths is >80 in Italy, close to that in WA (median is >80, not sure about the average). In years of life lost, one boy who was shot while the lockdown was being enforced in Kenya (iirc) is "worth" on the order of 10-20 average COVID dead (even if you don't weight earlier years of life heavier, which I would). A 30-year-old committing suicide in isolation in the US (acquaintance of a friend) is worth close to that. Then, if you want a real example of loss of life from a major economic crisis, look at life expectancy in Russia between 1980-2000, or birth rates during the same and GD. Finally, I would also argue having experienced the former that for (low) 100s of millions of people in ex-USSR, you have to count the 90ies as years at least partially lost, because they were spent in survival mode with giant loss of time and human potential. Personally I'd rather live a good life and die at 80 than throw away my e.g. 30ies working two jobs and trying to find where I can buy cheaper pasta, and live till 85.