ryankemper

10 ms·

31.
by ryankemper 6y ago
I believe they mean other communities in the sense of "other subreddits", although I can't speak for them.
32.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> I'm also not sure how much The_Donald was as a community. It was very clearly a real community, as you can see evidence from the fact that they migrated to thedonald.win when Reddit made it clear that they wouldn't be treated
33.
by ryankemper 6y ago
So, you haven't provided _any_ citations or even vague references to Wikipedia articles, rather you just called their opinion FUD and left it at that. How am I, a 3rd-party observer of this thread, supposed to extract any value from su
34.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> These things are evenly distributed across society This is an unproven assertion. You should provide evidence of it, because on its face it is a completely ludicrous claim. Rates of illicit drug activity, violent crime, etc are _not_ e
35.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> Since racism is systemic[1] > [1] If you don't believe this, you're in the minority now: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/11/21286642/george-floyd-protests... . This part was a little odd. It
36.
by ryankemper 6y ago
Even more concerning than using downvote as a disagree button is flagging as a disagree button. It's happened to me many times where my good-faith comments have been flagged due to advocating a minority position (specifically, that the
37.
by ryankemper 6y ago
To the extent that a site like Reddit tries to police content and decide what's "hateful" content versus just mildly offensive, etc, the platform becomes less valuable to me. These policy changes have driven me off of Reddit.
38.
by ryankemper 6y ago
In a way, it's much more frightening to operate on the assumption that, while there are bots, it mostly is actual humans. Simply put, a lot of the actual humans are bots (in the metaphorical sense of having incredibly un-nuanced takes
39.
by ryankemper 6y ago
So I totally agree that we over time will get slightly better treatment outcomes. But I think the negative effects of containment far exceed those marginally improved outcomes, therefore we still need the "game-changer" that I&#x2
40.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> the only thing we should be contemplating is how to eradicate the virus as soon as possible. Do you think that eradication is actually a possibility? Or are you using it as a metaphor for "contain it super well"? There are a
41.
by ryankemper 6y ago
Two of the most influential models in shifting public policy have been Ferguson and the IMHE's model. Here's Ferguson: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... > We do not
42.
by ryankemper 6y ago
The epidemiologists who have been advocating for lockdown have very explicitly ignored all of those sources of mortality entirely. They have only focused on COVID-19-attributable deaths and that's it. Now the job of the modellers is
43.
by ryankemper 6y ago
I hope you don't mind if I copy-paste a section from a piece I've already written that goes into this a bit. The TL;DR is that social isolation leads to worse outcomes, regardless of emotional loneliness. Also on the contrary, I t
44.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> You say it isn’t saving lives, so what do you think it is? I think that they intend to save lives but that their understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the best way to address it is so overly simplistic that the myopic policies t
45.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> ..because CA locked down in a timely way. How do you know hospitals wouldn't have been overrun otherwise? They were in some places (Italy). This is playing out in real time after all, and nobody has a crystal ball, especially not
46.
by ryankemper 6y ago
Yes, but my position is that the following externalities are equally or indeed more important to be mindful of: - worsened COVID-19 outcomes due to social isolation - worsened COVID-19 outcomes due to fear of going to a hospital (this is a
47.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> This seems like a very strange take. This is a utilitarian perspective, but with a floor of 20 million years of utility before we take any action. Why shouldn't we take action if the mortality reduction years > lockdown externa
48.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> No we didn't (collectively shit ourselves) Agree to disagree on that one :) > and we did not really heed the lesson that SARS-CoV-1 gave us Agreed. > I take it that your term "externalities" (I haven't heard i
49.
by ryankemper 6y ago
Let's back up a bit to talk about the two strategies. (1) Containment lets you indefinitely avoid COVID-19-induced mortality in the short-medium term, at the expense of ongoing, mounting costs to wellbeing and the economy. These costs
50.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> Let's take this concrete example. Say there is some worker in this factory. They don't want to go to work. They don't feel safe. Now they are torn between two authorities. What happens if they do show up? What happens if
51.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> Somehow halting the production of luxury cars for a few more weeks, with the explicit intent of trying to save lives, doesn't seem like an injustice to me. Forgive the cliche, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. &q
52.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> When the term exponential heaves into view then we should quite rightly shit ourselves and do as we are told. And yet we didn't collectively shit ourselves to nearly the same extent for any of the other novel viruses that have pop
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by ryankemper 6y ago
I really think that the word "billionaire" needs to stop being used as a bad word. Billionaires are citizens too. They are bound (imperfectly) by laws. Therefore they too encounter situations where practicing civil disobedience ma
54.
by ryankemper 6y ago
The burden of proof is on the person claiming the widespread organ failure. I can't provide a study saying it doesn't happen because there's not studies saying it does happen for those studies to debunk :) But, here's on
55.
by ryankemper 6y ago
To be clear, I've been talking about NY because it's the classic example of hospital overrun. So talking about prevalence in the rest of the country is irrelevant. > And the efficacy of the antibody tests has proven problematic
56.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> The risk of COVID to me is low. The risk to society of me going about my daily business as if nothing has happened is high. There are social adjustments that do little to reduce my risk, but decrease overall risk, and unsurprisingly, p
57.
by ryankemper 6y ago
> but it turns out that COVID causes multiple organ failure, treating which needs a wider range of facilities, and can progress very quickly from respiratory symptoms to that, so they aren't actually much use. Just to be clear, COVI
58.
by ryankemper 6y ago
The risk of the second wave is precisely the indication that our indefinite containment strategy was fundamentally flawed. We didn't actually avoid mortality in a permanent sense, we just postponed it. Which is why many on the side tha
59.
by ryankemper 6y ago
Just to be clear, the epidemic only "burns out" when somewhere between 50-90% of the population has immunity. Almost certainly closer to 80%+ unless we discover that a significant portion of the population is resistant to infectio
60.
by ryankemper 6y ago
I think it totally makes sense why you would feel that way. I do want to mention that we know that somewhere between 25-50% of COVID-19 cases appear to be entirely asymptomatic (as opposed to pre-symptomatic). So almost half of people who g

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