ozgooen

5 ms·

1.
by ozgooen 7y ago
This sounds great. How suitable do you think this is for CPU-intensive work? I'm interested in having servers for scientific-computational work, which would be rather CPU-heavy. It would be great to offload some of this to a nearby bro
2.
by ozgooen 8y ago
Strongly thirded. I'm not sure I agree with absolutely everything they say, but overall I think they have a far more pragmatic and honest set of answers than any competing advice I hear. For disclosure, I worked there for a year. The E
3.
by ozgooen 8y ago
Please do so. The UI is all open-source react, so you may be able to copy some components directly if you wanted. I'd be happy to help people out with this if you have requests.
4.
by ozgooen 8y ago
You can copy & paste an array of samples and Guesstimate will sample from that cluster. For instance, try pasting the following into the value field of a cell: [1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,7,7,7,7] You can use tools like distshape
5.
by ozgooen 8y ago
On the question of "what are other ways of doing MC analysis", there are two approaches. The first is to use Excel apps like Oracle Crystal Ball or @Risk. These are aimed at business analysists. They're pretty expensive, but
6.
by ozgooen 8y ago
You can choose from a few distributions (normal, lognormal, uniform) in the main editor, or you can type many others using the function editor. The sidebar describes all of them.
7.
by ozgooen 8y ago
In my experience, many consequential business decisions aren't even made with probability distributions, let alone probabilistic models with realistic correlations. I would generally encourage people who are comfortable with more advan
8.
by ozgooen 8y ago
I'd definitely agree that correlations can be a really big deal, especially in very large models like that one. Guesstimate doesn't currently allow for correlations as you're probably thinking of them. However, if two nodes a
9.
by ozgooen 8y ago
I've heard of it being used in a few classes. There was one estimation session with one group of what I remember to be 8th-graders. Honestly, I really don't think you need to be great at statistics to understand the fundamental co
10.
by ozgooen 8y ago
We're keeping it running but aren't actively improving it.
11.
by ozgooen 8y ago
Thanks for the feedback. We have some documentation [here]( https://docs.getguesstimate.com/ ), and some in the sidebar entree. Generally, we recommend lognormal distributions for estimated parameters that can't be negat
12.
by ozgooen 8y ago
We initially had a lot of uncertainty on how to price it but wanted to experiment with more users rather than fewer, with the premise that if it were very successful we could scale up. I think if I were to start again or spend much time res
13.
by ozgooen 8y ago
Cofounder Here: Happy to see this on hnews again. Update: Matthew (the other cofounder) and I got Guesstimate to a stage we were happy with. After a good amount of work it seemed like several customers were pretty happy with it, but there w
14.
Reading and Learning Smartfonts(dl.acm.org)
1 points by ozgooen 8y ago|0 comments
15.
by ozgooen 8y ago
I guess another question here is what are heuristics for how many images are necessary for different levels of functionality. The demos look pretty impressive, but I'm not sure how much went into them.
16.
by ozgooen 8y ago
Is Lobe only for image data? Would it work for inputs that are text files or similar?
17.
by ozgooen 11y ago
Very good to know. Right now you can choose between normal, uniform, and a few very simple discreet distributions, but not others. When I built this, my first goal was to make any distribution run quickly. At this point I believe adding o
18.
by ozgooen 11y ago
Thanks for letting me know. It's definitely not mobile compatible yet. I think making it viewable on mobile devices soon is doable. Making them easily editable will be much harder / require a different interface.
19.
by ozgooen 11y ago
Guesstimate doesn't yet support correlations. Right now we assume everything is independent, though of course variables are often correlated with their outputs.
20.
by ozgooen 11y ago
That makes sense. It would be very useful to see estimates of how well Presidential candidates would do if they got elected. In the future, one idea would be to keep track of people's metric estimates in Guesstimate, and later score a
21.
by ozgooen 11y ago
"Is there support for µ±σ instead of [low,high] in the works? " - There used to be. I'll be considering ways of adding it back. "Or support for numerical distributions?" - By numerical distributions do you mean dis
22.
by ozgooen 11y ago
Right now the vast majority of it is open source. There is a component that is not: the rails server, but that's pretty tiny. The client can be developed on without that. If there's some interest I'm happy to make what&#x2
23.
by ozgooen 11y ago
Good catch! Right now the main distribution types are normal and uniform. In the video, I showed normal distributions, which have long tails in both directions. In this case, a normal distribution isn't really correct, because, as you
24.
by ozgooen 11y ago
Sorry to hear about Intercom, will investigate shortly. I heard someone else had a similar issue. In response to your points: - Other distribution types are the #1 most requested feature at this time. Binary distributions are possible usi
25.
by ozgooen 11y ago
That's definitely on the agenda. Curious, what are you interested in a JSON serialization for?
26.
by ozgooen 11y ago
No. It needs to be online at this point.
27.
by ozgooen 11y ago
Definitely. Here's one in that range as an example. http://getguesstimate.com/models/163 Feel free to play with it. You can edit it, just not save it. (I recently realized this was not obvious to most people)
28.
by ozgooen 11y ago
In practice, 5000 was basically the number that wouldn't slow it down; this represented around 20-30% of the rendering time (react components were the main bottleneck, surprisingly, though I could still optimize them more). I think tha
29.
by ozgooen 11y ago
I believe it would be handy, but it depends on the size. Right now I think it's reasonably fast and intuitive for models of around 3 to 40 metrics(variables). If you have more it could get slower, especially if many of them have to b
30.
by ozgooen 11y ago
That seems like a great fit. A few weeks back I used the tool to help a friend decide which mortgage option to take for his house. One house has a slightly lower APR than the other, but was a had a higher assistance fee. After fiddling wit

More ›