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Batteries are already being used for ferries but they're too large and heavy for transoceanic merchant ships. I doubt that operators will be willing to make mor

by nradov 9d ago

Batteries are already being used for ferries but they're too large and heavy for transoceanic merchant ships. I doubt that operators will be willing to make more frequent port calls just to recharge.

mschuster91 9d ago
... at the moment. We might find ourselves with containers full of batteries being exchanged on sea by feeder ships. Doesn't help across the real oceans, but works along coastal routes (which Asia-Europe definitely is). The more expensive oil is, the faster the transition will have to be done. Simply because at some point, even the trash that freight ships burn will be more expensive than a bunch of battery containers and an electric drivetrain.
- citrin_ru 9d ago
  Oil will not stay expensive for a long time without some carbon tax. Even if Hormuz will remain closed for years production will rise elsewhere. The main reason production is not increasing significantly right now - investors are not sure that prices will stay at the current level for a long time (3+ years) and expect prices to fall before they’ll get enough to recoup investments. The longer prices will stay around $100 the more will be invested into new oil wells.
  - mschuster91 9d ago
    > Oil will not stay expensive for a long time without some carbon tax. Which the EU already does. > Even if Hormuz will remain closed for years production will rise elsewhere. There aren't that many places outside of MENA that produce oil in reasonable quantities. European reserves are effectively at capacity, can't really build out any more. The only ones who can expand are the US but they have to ship their oil elsewhere to refine it (and in turn get refined products back), the US is only net self-sufficient but not gross self-sufficient. Even if the US were to increase shale oil/fracking... it wouldn't help the markets too much.
    - citrin_ru 9d ago
      > There aren't that many places outside of MENA that produce oil in reasonable quantities AFAIK all these countries can increase production given enough investments: US Canada Guyana Venezuela (high political risk but with high oil prices the risk will be taken) Brazil Whether the US is self sufficient or not is not that important as net production and its dynamics.
      - mschuster91 9d ago
        > Whether US is self sufficient or not is not that important as net production and its dynamics. Unfortunately it is. When there is no oil coming to the US any more that US refineries can handle and process into the stuff the US needs... all the reserves and production capacity the US has don't matter. The US cannot process its own oil.
        vel0city 9d ago
        > The US cannot process its own oil. Today? No. A year or so, with the right economic incentive/certainty? Sure. Most US produced oil is the easiest to refine stuff. It's got some of the highest demand on the global market. Makes sense to sell it. The stuff we're set up to refine mostly? The hardest stuff to refine. The cheapest shit out there. We can add the most value buying that stuff and refining it. It also gives a lot of "byproducts" which are useful for plastics and other things which help give even more returns per barrel. It's really not that hard to change a refinery to go from the heavy and sour junk to the light, sweet stuff. You essentially just end up bypassing a lot of equipment that's just no longer needed, with some other changes in processes. It's very expensive and complicated to go the other way, needing lots of new equipment among other things. If we absolutely needed to, it wouldn't be incredibly challenging to retool to refine US produced oil. It doesn't currently make sense economically for most refiners, so they don't. And even a several month hit, it doesn't make sense to retool. A persistent expected future where we just won't get that heavy sour stuff anymore, sure, they'll retool. The biggest "cost" is they'll have a bunch of expensive machines sitting unused, and a bunch of new pipe to install to bypass it.
- nradov 9d ago
  The notion of using cranes to swap heavy battery packs at sea (even near coastlines) is ludicrous. Some of you guys have never spent much time out on the ocean in bad weather and it shows. Plus the coastlines along much of the Asia-Europe route lack suitable deep-water ports, and have serious problems with lack of security and infrastructure.
  - mschuster91 9d ago
    > Some of you guys have never spent much time out on the ocean in bad weather and it shows. Fair point, my license only allows 12 miles and I have no intent of ever exceeding that lol.

by nradov 9d ago

Batteries are already being used for ferries but they're too large and heavy for transoceanic merchant ships. I doubt that operators will be willing to make more frequent port calls just to recharge.

mschuster91 9d ago

... at the moment. We might find ourselves with containers full of batteries being exchanged on sea by feeder ships. Doesn't help across the real oceans, but works along coastal routes (which Asia-Europe definitely is). The more expensive oil is, the faster the transition will have to be done. Simply because at some point, even the trash that freight ships burn will be more expensive than a bunch of battery containers and an electric drivetrain.

citrin_ru 9d ago
Oil will not stay expensive for a long time without some carbon tax. Even if Hormuz will remain closed for years production will rise elsewhere. The main reason production is not increasing significantly right now - investors are not sure that prices will stay at the current level for a long time (3+ years) and expect prices to fall before they’ll get enough to recoup investments. The longer prices will stay around $100 the more will be invested into new oil wells.
- mschuster91 9d ago
  > Oil will not stay expensive for a long time without some carbon tax. Which the EU already does. > Even if Hormuz will remain closed for years production will rise elsewhere. There aren't that many places outside of MENA that produce oil in reasonable quantities. European reserves are effectively at capacity, can't really build out any more. The only ones who can expand are the US but they have to ship their oil elsewhere to refine it (and in turn get refined products back), the US is only net self-sufficient but not gross self-sufficient. Even if the US were to increase shale oil/fracking... it wouldn't help the markets too much.
  - citrin_ru 9d ago
    > There aren't that many places outside of MENA that produce oil in reasonable quantities AFAIK all these countries can increase production given enough investments: US Canada Guyana Venezuela (high political risk but with high oil prices the risk will be taken) Brazil Whether the US is self sufficient or not is not that important as net production and its dynamics.
    - mschuster91 9d ago
      > Whether US is self sufficient or not is not that important as net production and its dynamics. Unfortunately it is. When there is no oil coming to the US any more that US refineries can handle and process into the stuff the US needs... all the reserves and production capacity the US has don't matter. The US cannot process its own oil.
      - vel0city 9d ago
        > The US cannot process its own oil. Today? No. A year or so, with the right economic incentive/certainty? Sure. Most US produced oil is the easiest to refine stuff. It's got some of the highest demand on the global market. Makes sense to sell it. The stuff we're set up to refine mostly? The hardest stuff to refine. The cheapest shit out there. We can add the most value buying that stuff and refining it. It also gives a lot of "byproducts" which are useful for plastics and other things which help give even more returns per barrel. It's really not that hard to change a refinery to go from the heavy and sour junk to the light, sweet stuff. You essentially just end up bypassing a lot of equipment that's just no longer needed, with some other changes in processes. It's very expensive and complicated to go the other way, needing lots of new equipment among other things. If we absolutely needed to, it wouldn't be incredibly challenging to retool to refine US produced oil. It doesn't currently make sense economically for most refiners, so they don't. And even a several month hit, it doesn't make sense to retool. A persistent expected future where we just won't get that heavy sour stuff anymore, sure, they'll retool. The biggest "cost" is they'll have a bunch of expensive machines sitting unused, and a bunch of new pipe to install to bypass it.
nradov 9d ago
The notion of using cranes to swap heavy battery packs at sea (even near coastlines) is ludicrous. Some of you guys have never spent much time out on the ocean in bad weather and it shows. Plus the coastlines along much of the Asia-Europe route lack suitable deep-water ports, and have serious problems with lack of security and infrastructure.
- mschuster91 9d ago
  > Some of you guys have never spent much time out on the ocean in bad weather and it shows. Fair point, my license only allows 12 miles and I have no intent of ever exceeding that lol.