natalyarostova

13 ms·

91.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Yes, this is hot-nonsense. They will shut the state down entirely the day 20,000 people die on the streets surrounding a hospital.
92.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
This is completely unacceptable. If this happens tens of thousands will be dying on the streets and in hospital parking lots. Meanwhile other areas are able to suppress the virus, collectively buying ourselves time to develop therapeutics a
93.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
This isn’t how you learn complex topics. This is how you memorize sound bites.
94.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
If we wait for new pandemics to kill more people than the flu to take them seriously, then it's too late to act.
95.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
As I understand it (please correct me someone if I'm wrong), this was a freak mutation. Not to suggest it couldn't happen again. And we 100% should be prepared. But the concept of a virus leaving, mutating to be more deadly, and c
96.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
(Disclaimer: I work at Amazon). We have a world class supply-chain. This is a moment when the US, and the world, 100% must have a functioning supply chain. I'm proud of the work we're doing to keep things running under unusual str
97.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
You’ll be old one day, if you’re lucky.
98.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
I didn’t get the impression he was comparing them. Just providing reference points. He’s pretty clear that this is bad.
99.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
I guess people would rather lower the gdp than have their parents die.
100.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Maybe. But unless he tries we won’t know. We need lots of smart people trying things with 1-3% chance of success.
101.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Sam’s expertise isn’t just about money. It’s about identifying the good ideas in the sea of ideas, and helping them get connected.
102.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Why? Being an MD isn't a huge deal in these cases. Not to say that having knowledge of the fundamentals of biology or healthcare isn't useful, but managing thousands of people, complex human systems, mass organizations, and buildi
103.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Well... The counter is that I have trouble being productive when my city is slowly being shut down and I'm scared of a pandemic lol.
104.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Awesome! I love reading the covid news (I live in Seattle), and this is a cool way to make both parties happy.
105.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Tech feudalism sounds pretty good about now. I trust bill gates to manage this far more than I trust our government, which so far has been worthless.
106.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Is he? It sounds like you might know more about him than I do. Having said that, I do worry sometimes that people who make dire predictions about unconstrained infection, which then don't materialize because people take it seriously, g
107.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Sure, there are saturation parameters in the differential equations that prevent that result. There are smart epidemiologists who project those claims > https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02&#x2
108.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
> The extra dozen deaths from this new virus really don't change my existing habits This is either deliberately misleading, or you are not properly able to reason about and understand exponential growth. No one cares about 12 deaths
109.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
It's not sufficiently containment, due to the high incubation time, there is transmission amongst many who do not think they are sick. That's a property of this virus that makes it different.
110.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
(not to say some people aren't panicking. Which they of course should stop doing).
111.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
I disagree. Containment still seems to be the correct course of action, which requires drastic up-front measures to prevent millions of cases simultaneously. You might disagree with that strategy, in which case that's fine, I think you
112.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
I would love it if you're all correct on this. The problem I face is that I do notice other countries who are a week or two ahead of us really struggling, and taking increasingly drastic measures to try and maintain control. I guess I
113.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Meanwhile, our hospitals in Seattle are already filling up, and they're diverting people to further hospitals; as this is a virus with an extremely high hospitalization rate. We all need to do what we can to keep those hospitalizations
114.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
At this point the amount of evidence showing this is different than the flu is so overwhelming that you're either grossly misinformed (likely) or being disingenuous (less likely).
115.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
You know, some of us have family with underlying health conditions.
116.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Remember, error bars give us the ability to reason about estimation and sampling error. But not more subtle forms of bias, information loss, or some concepts of fat tails.
117.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
The short answer is giving you a causal, narrative like reason why you would want bottled water at home during a pandemic doesn't exist. The best argument is that a pandemic is an unknown shock to a system. We don't have any clear
118.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Water is interesting, because humans are so utterly dependent on it to survive the coming 2-3 days, that even if the probability of it going away is remote, the consequence is the maximum. As a result it's hard to not suggest it. Havin
119.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
Not necessarily. There is going to be some education involving how to optimally treat it, and/or vaccines (in the longer run).
120.
by natalyarostova 7y ago
This is an incorrect way of understanding phenomena. You're essentially claiming that things are the same so long as certain elements of them intersect, regardless of the magnitude. Therefore we cannot distinguish between them.

More ›