3 ms·

Sure, there are saturation parameters in the differential equations that prevent that result. There are smart epidemiologists who project those claims >https:/

Sure, there are saturation parameters in the differential equations that prevent that result. There are smart epidemiologists who project those claims >https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac... The CDC/WHO are still trying to push for containment, so I'm unaware of any concrete predictions they are taking with regards to the final infection rate. More generally, the more I've been binge studying epidemiology (not claiming to be an authority), the more I'm learning that, as a field, it has difficulty with long-run predictions. That's not super surprising, I work in the statsy/ML forecasting world, and these types of unstable, unknown processes are very hard to forecast accurately. What we do know though is that there is good reason to believe it's parameters governing infection (e.g. secondary infection distribution) are more infectious that diseases such as H1N1, which went on to infect ~20% of the world. We do know that the mortality is 1-3%, depending on ICU saturation. There are reasonable base rate scenarios to view this as a likely outcome. We need to do our best to contain this and keep it as a slow burn, or we will be dealing with hundreds of thousands of Americans dead, and millions hospitalized. To be a little more specific, the deaths given a functioning health system are less concerning to me. It's the fact that this has a very high hospitalization rate of 5-20%. That's why we need to keep spread slow, so the hospitals can manage.

NicolasGorden 7y ago
Isn't Marc Lipsitch the same guy who had dire predictions for SARS and MERS? While the Atlantic is a good publication, I'd rather take my medical advice from the CDC and WHO, who have not published such dire predictions. BTW, I completely agree that Corona Virus is an issue that needs to be addressed. I'm simply saying the reaction is out of proportion to the reality of the threat.
- natalyarostova 7y ago
  Is he? It sounds like you might know more about him than I do. Having said that, I do worry sometimes that people who make dire predictions about unconstrained infection, which then don't materialize because people take it seriously, get an unfair track record. The WHO is seemingly asking for dramatic action, although you can judge that for yourself: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1058461 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1058461 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/preparing-communities.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/preparing-comm... Otherwise I think you're insisting on an unreasonable burden of evidence, in that unless the CDC or WHO specifically make a prediction, then its not justified. The best known parameters on secondary infection distributions are strongly suggestive that this spreads more readily than the flu, and the flu infects ~20% of the population a year. Those are good priors to start with, given that we don't have enough realized empirical evidence to know the truth.
  - NicolasGorden 7y ago
    I 100% agree with the WHO and CDC warnings. From your link: > Containing the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic should still be everyone’s “top priority” I agree. But the WHO also has an issue with people's insane reaction which are hurting the response, not helping: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-... In fact, they published a guide on what to do: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-... It basically says and I quote: "The most effective preventive measures in the community include:  performing hand hygiene frequently with an alcohol-based hand rub if your hands are not visibly dirty or with soap and water if hands are dirty;  avoiding touching your eyes, nose and mouth;  practicing respiratory hygiene by coughing or sneezing into a bent elbow or tissue and then immediately disposing of the tissue;  wearing a medical mask if you have respiratory symptoms and performing hand hygiene after disposing of the mask;  maintaining social distance (a minimum of 1 m) from individuals with respiratory symptoms. " Notice how these are basically the same precautions people should keep always, regardless of Corona Virus being there. That's why I said, what I do now is exactly what I'd do last year to avoid dying from a virus. Nothing has changed for me. Also notice how the list of precautions doesn't include: 'horde face masks when not sick, stay indoors and cancel all travel plans'. Those actions actually hurt. Read my original post. It never said Corona virus isn't an issue. My point was people's reaction is probably the main issue. And I tried to illustrate how illogical it is based on the risks people take when it comes to things that are currently proven to be deadly, not maybe deadly. The other day someone complained to me about the dangers of Corona Virus WHILE smoking a cigarette! (blew my mind, though I didn't say anything) The overreaction is perfectly illustrated in the Atlantic article where they estimate 70% of the world population will have Corona Virus before the years end. At 7 billion, and with 3% death rate, it would mean 147,000,000 million dead by the year's end. Given that you mentioned modeling on other diseases, you should be able to recognize this as wildly exaggerated fear mongering. Even if it was 10x as deadly as the flu we'd still be talking about 3 to 6 million dead world wide (high no doubt, but still less than tobacco deaths which stand at 7 million/year) And that's a pretty grim outcome since it would be 10x worse than any virus we know. This basic back of the envelop math makes me think the figure of 147,000,000 dead (the logical implication to the Atlantic's estimates) is pure quackery. There seems to be a feedback loop: the more people get scared, the more the media sells fear. The more the media sells fear, the more scared they become. Again, I can't stress this enough, Corona Virus is real, it needs to be addressed, our leaders need to make it a priority. But also true is people need to stop fretting over things they can't control and the media needs to stop whipping them into a frenzy with fear mongering tactics. Overreactions can be just as bad as under reactions and humans have a long history of mass hysteria that only make things worse.

NicolasGorden 7y ago

Isn't Marc Lipsitch the same guy who had dire predictions for SARS and MERS? While the Atlantic is a good publication, I'd rather take my medical advice from the CDC and WHO, who have not published such dire predictions. BTW, I completely agree that Corona Virus is an issue that needs to be addressed. I'm simply saying the reaction is out of proportion to the reality of the threat.

natalyarostova 7y ago
Is he? It sounds like you might know more about him than I do. Having said that, I do worry sometimes that people who make dire predictions about unconstrained infection, which then don't materialize because people take it seriously, get an unfair track record. The WHO is seemingly asking for dramatic action, although you can judge that for yourself: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1058461 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1058461 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/preparing-communities.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/preparing-comm... Otherwise I think you're insisting on an unreasonable burden of evidence, in that unless the CDC or WHO specifically make a prediction, then its not justified. The best known parameters on secondary infection distributions are strongly suggestive that this spreads more readily than the flu, and the flu infects ~20% of the population a year. Those are good priors to start with, given that we don't have enough realized empirical evidence to know the truth.
- NicolasGorden 7y ago
  I 100% agree with the WHO and CDC warnings. From your link: > Containing the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic should still be everyone’s “top priority” I agree. But the WHO also has an issue with people's insane reaction which are hurting the response, not helping: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-... In fact, they published a guide on what to do: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-... It basically says and I quote: "The most effective preventive measures in the community include:  performing hand hygiene frequently with an alcohol-based hand rub if your hands are not visibly dirty or with soap and water if hands are dirty;  avoiding touching your eyes, nose and mouth;  practicing respiratory hygiene by coughing or sneezing into a bent elbow or tissue and then immediately disposing of the tissue;  wearing a medical mask if you have respiratory symptoms and performing hand hygiene after disposing of the mask;  maintaining social distance (a minimum of 1 m) from individuals with respiratory symptoms. " Notice how these are basically the same precautions people should keep always, regardless of Corona Virus being there. That's why I said, what I do now is exactly what I'd do last year to avoid dying from a virus. Nothing has changed for me. Also notice how the list of precautions doesn't include: 'horde face masks when not sick, stay indoors and cancel all travel plans'. Those actions actually hurt. Read my original post. It never said Corona virus isn't an issue. My point was people's reaction is probably the main issue. And I tried to illustrate how illogical it is based on the risks people take when it comes to things that are currently proven to be deadly, not maybe deadly. The other day someone complained to me about the dangers of Corona Virus WHILE smoking a cigarette! (blew my mind, though I didn't say anything) The overreaction is perfectly illustrated in the Atlantic article where they estimate 70% of the world population will have Corona Virus before the years end. At 7 billion, and with 3% death rate, it would mean 147,000,000 million dead by the year's end. Given that you mentioned modeling on other diseases, you should be able to recognize this as wildly exaggerated fear mongering. Even if it was 10x as deadly as the flu we'd still be talking about 3 to 6 million dead world wide (high no doubt, but still less than tobacco deaths which stand at 7 million/year) And that's a pretty grim outcome since it would be 10x worse than any virus we know. This basic back of the envelop math makes me think the figure of 147,000,000 dead (the logical implication to the Atlantic's estimates) is pure quackery. There seems to be a feedback loop: the more people get scared, the more the media sells fear. The more the media sells fear, the more scared they become. Again, I can't stress this enough, Corona Virus is real, it needs to be addressed, our leaders need to make it a priority. But also true is people need to stop fretting over things they can't control and the media needs to stop whipping them into a frenzy with fear mongering tactics. Overreactions can be just as bad as under reactions and humans have a long history of mass hysteria that only make things worse.