mturmon

65 ms·

751.
by mturmon 7y ago
Because of solar insolation, the system is not closed. In particular, we have a valve (CO2) controlling insolation and reflection. You would not argue that the effect of a Mylar sheet placed above a sunny swimming pool has to do with the
752.
by mturmon 7y ago
You seem to be arguing that, because the planetary mass of CO2 is smaller than that of water, CO2 changes cannot substantively affect water transport. So, I’d strongly suggest you should just read the NCA, because this argument is both ridi
753.
by mturmon 7y ago
The reference I offered summarizes the current state of knowledge about the linkages between climate change due to globally-rising CO2, and drought. The quote I gave tells a couple of specific links. The report itself offers plentiful anal
754.
by mturmon 7y ago
There are indeed causal links which play out differently from region to region. Here is the current best wisdom on links between global change and drought: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/3/ It's a
755.
by mturmon 7y ago
This does indeed happen. For instance, evening winds in southern coastal CA will often blow out to sea ... perhaps in the SFBA it’s similar. But in this particular instance, it’s hard to be sure if that’s the explanation without knowing mo
756.
by mturmon 7y ago
Bias in what sense? There is overwhelming physical evidence that climate is changing ... it’s not really a “cabal” situation. Can you detect any evidence of any forces attempting to bias climate science? Perhaps you mean energy companies?
757.
by mturmon 7y ago
> ... it is usually stressful on the marriage... So true. My wife and I noticed that several of our friends who had renovated their house on the way to a big showcase (e.g., to become one of the homes on a home design tour) ended up get
758.
by mturmon 7y ago
Those “someones” who started using it were Stan Ulam and John von Neumann: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method#History It’s a beautiful piece of math history.
759.
by mturmon 7y ago
One of the original papers reporting Chinese CFC emissions is here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2.epdf?refer... A later one (2019) is https://eos.org/articles/banned-cfc-emission
760.
by mturmon 7y ago
Your question was answered in the comment underneath it -- the answer is taken from the article in the discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21709446 Basically: selection criterion was, any published model that h
761.
by mturmon 7y ago
Some of this was familiar, but I also saw this: > In 1973, Saharon Shelah showed that the Whitehead problem ("is every abelian group A with Ext^1(A, Z) = 0 a free abelian group?") is independent of ZFC. (This is the same Shelah
762.
by mturmon 7y ago
> I raised a number of concerns with the study, but wasn't able to find anyone who would seriously and objectively address them. This is an inaccurate summary of that thread, in which you raised a simple accusation that the article
763.
by mturmon 7y ago
All of my climate researcher friends have stopped reading "The Farmers Almanac" and have flocked to "The Old Farmers Almanac", which has a much more rigorous peer review process, and better impact factor. (/s)
764.
by mturmon 7y ago
OTOH, the example in the OP has somewhat the flavor of the hard problem you just sketched. The tree-based (RPN-esque) notation itself gets around much of the "perturbed program fails to compile" problem.
765.
by mturmon 7y ago
Worth it for the block quote and thumbnail description of the theme of Butcher’s Crossing .
766.
by mturmon 7y ago
Seconded. Apollo is fantastic.
767.
by mturmon 7y ago
Good point ... your link is the 2-page conference version (from June) of the larger and more-detailed journal submission (which was more recent, and for me, not available in full form yet on the journal website).
768.
by mturmon 7y ago
Good point. This character is a staple of many old novels and films -- Arthur Hailey's novel Hotel (1965, adapted as a movie) has such a detective, who is corrupt and mainly wants to extract bribes from any guest who breaks a rule.
769.
by mturmon 7y ago
From the abstract of the article in GRL, here's a sentence on the novelty of this particular work: > While several investigations have already predicted, identified, and characterized some properties of near‐surface ice on Mars, our
770.
by mturmon 7y ago
I think you want to argue with people on the internet. Not playing.
771.
by mturmon 7y ago
> ...immortal being locked in a prison with just an Apple ][e... Sounds like me as a teenager.
772.
by mturmon 7y ago
Your comment is an example of the "middlebrow dismissal" [1] and overdone and uninformed skepticism that is prevalent on HN climate threads. There's no indication that the authors are cherry-picking their models but the comme
773.
by mturmon 7y ago
Thirded. The posting of climate-related stories on HN brings out a lot of un-informed skepticism. The resulting back-and-forth tends to crowd out everything else. In many of these cases, it's clear that the commenters have done no ba
774.
by mturmon 7y ago
Could you name the climate model that predicted a "fiery wasteland"? What exactly does this mean? Also: as has been pointed out, in TFA and elsewhere in this thread, the authors of the linked study did not cherry-pick the models.
775.
by mturmon 7y ago
They did a literature search and chose what was reproducible. This has been covered in TFA and highlighted by a comment nearby: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21709446
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by mturmon 7y ago
This blog post is highly misleading and poorly-informed. The author of it does not seem to know that climate scientists do test their models against reality, leading him/her to waste a lot of words explaining how cargo cult science is
777.
by mturmon 7y ago
Also for reference on the history of climate science: Here is a paper [1] from James Hansen in Science magazine, in 1981, that warns of crisis-level warming. From the abstract -- > In the 21st century, we will see "creation of drou
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by mturmon 7y ago
Your comment contains hypotheticals ("run random models and wait long enough you will always be able to find at least one model that predicted the current observations") that are NOT what the present study did. As noted in TFA, th
779.
by mturmon 7y ago
The first place I saw these diagrams is in the first edition of Tom Cover and Joy Thomas's excellent textbook - copyright 1991. But the Venn diagrams are presented in their book as mnemonic tools, and not in terms of entropies of an un
780.
by mturmon 7y ago
This has been my experience also with hoppy beers. Sometimes the migraine will start after only a couple of ounces. I mostly drink lagers and wheat beers now.

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