luc4sdreyer

19 ms·

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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
> I also can't help but to notice that the agro-dietary industry is a pretty low-margin business. It seems like driving up profit margins requires convincing people that existing foods are somehow unsuitable, and that "innovati
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
> On top of that you have Elon Musk thinking we are a few months away from SkyNet even though we are decades and decades away from AGI. The actual problem is that we don't know how long it'll be until we build an AGI. Experts p
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
At the risk of reigniting the perpetual war about how to characterize machine intelligence, and by extension how to characterize the risk they pose, Yann has been (and still is AFAIK) more in the "existential AI risk is a long-term pro
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
He also applied for federal benefits to treat his black lung disease [1] while claiming that his disease has nothing to do with the exposure he had while working [2]. Which is _possible_, but seems unlikely to me. I must admit that I know n
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
And after he was sued by Robert Murray for the above episode, the follow up episode [1] won an Emmy award [2] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN8bJb8biZU [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_Prime
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
>The fixed upfront equipment costs and carbon footprint do need to the factored in as well but they are not going to amount to much. In the source I gave they actually _do_ factor in the equipment costs, and turns out it does amount to m
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
Thanks, so we're actually in agreement then :) If you look at your own source (the two Figure 3 inserts from 2017 and 2018 studies), they estimate that in 2020 the kWh/GB measure would be between 0.1 and 0.01. That equates to betw
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
Nitpick: > Note that transfer of 1GB of data produces 3kg of CO2. This is wrong, it's closer to 29 grams of CO2 for 1GB, on average. Of course it depends on the mix of power sources used. https://www.iea.org/commenta
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by luc4sdreyer 6y ago
What percentage of your networth would you bet that the Chinese government _can_ access WeChat passwords?
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
It's a simple binomial probability calculation. The probability of one or more blind schizophrenic people born in the US, assuming they're independent variables, is 1-0,999998^330000000. I don't have a calculator on hand that
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
Any idea which town the law refers to? I looked at the 1990 census data [1] and the closest thing I could find is a town called Appalachia with 1994 people. [1] https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennia
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
That's fair. Deciding how much to spend on R&D and what to prioritise is a hard problem.
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
Have you considered that self-assembling nanotech might be much, much harder than it seems? Or do you know something we don't?
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
Same with Roku, revenue but no profit [1]. Spotify did turn a profit in 2019 [2], for the first time since inception (16 years). However Spotify is predicting a loss for the next year. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks&
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
From the show notes[1]: > It’s also interesting that certain designs, such as the one proposed by Moravec (1977), consider a tether whose rotation is chosen such that its instantaneous velocity when touching the atmosphere is minimized,
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
I completely agree with what you said, except for the part that I misreading the article. GP's comment is vague, it could be anything between "artificial intelligence will be on balance bad", and "the Terminator movie wi
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
>AI is going to turn against us Would you mind sharing your argument about why this notion is a waste of time? Machine learning experts are concerned about it [1], but maybe you know something they don't? [1] https://www.
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
It's true that life expectancy used to be very low due to very high infant mortality, but even after that it wasn't easy going: > Based on Neolithic and Bronze Age data, the total life expectancy at 15 would not exceed 34 years
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
> They can make 30-70% yearly return with low volatility. Can you source this? If it was that easy to get a consistent 50% return then why aren't more people doing it?
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
> Just that small building causes 4-5 bird deaths per day? Good lord. He did say that it only happens during "this time of year". Collisions with buildings kill up to 1 billion birds per year in the US [1], so that sounds about
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
>The discussion is about Exxon, an oil company. The rise of China was fueled predominantly by coal. I don't see how this relates to anything. >Thanks for admitting the submission title is an outrageous lie though. You seem to be
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
> The models used today have all predicted more warming than actually happened Source? Although all of this depends on what you mean by "more", as in what you assume the error bars on the models are. > temperature data for t
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
You're implying that climate scientists had to have known the relative emissions per country into the far future. This is wrong for several reasons: * It doesn't matter where the CO2 is released, only that it's released. * Cl
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
I answered a similar question in another thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21369078 TLDR: That model was fairly in line with what the scientific community was saying at the time. That excuse might have carried so
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
> This seems very hard to believe - mainstream science struggles to predict accurately even 5 years out In general, this might be true. Predicting the future is harder than it seems. But it depends completely on the type of system (chaot
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
One reason the IPCC might have missed that prediction in 1982 is that the organisation didn't exist. It was founded in 1988 [1]. If you meant the scientific community as a whole, a majority was predicting anthropogenic global warming s
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
> but I'm not sure why many are even remotely surprised by these sort of escapades I don't think people are surprised that these things are possible in the context of "EaaS". It's surprising because they're
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
Bradley Kuhn is no longer associated with the FSF anyway [1]. That doesn't mean that he doesn't care about free software anymore. I just thought it was interesting that you mentioned him specifically. [1] http://ebb.org
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
>Here's some ideas you might find interesting, To expand on your key ideas: it looks pretty comprehensive but if you're interested in making the world a better place as well, have a look at 80,000 hours [1]. They've been t
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by luc4sdreyer 7y ago
Applications are still growing, the highest was Canada with 9.4% growth between 2018 and 2019: > Applications to U.S. business schools, including M.B.A. programs, fell sharply, while rising in Canada, Europe and China. just not in the US

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