irq11

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181.
by irq11 7y ago
Hospitalization rate is a function of age; if the 163 infected are young, you would expect a hospitalization rate of near zero.
182.
by irq11 7y ago
”Most young people survive but many of those surviving suffer permanent lung damage.” This is not true. You are repeating misinformation.
183.
by irq11 7y ago
Mt. Sinai in NYC is not currently reporting shortages of any kind. They are preparing for shortages, but are not currently experiencing them: https://www.westsiderag.com/2020/03/23/mt-sinai-setting-up-o...
184.
by irq11 7y ago
” Epidemiologists say that influenza is easier to control.” Not that I have heard of. You’re going to have to cite some evidence here. (They’re both respiratory viruses with similar R0, so your evidence needs to be pretty extraordinary to
185.
by irq11 7y ago
I’m a died-in-the-wool liberal, and I think he’s right about that. We aren’t rationally weighing costs and benefits right now. We really should be talking more about what we’re doing to the economy, and if there are better ways to move forw
186.
by irq11 7y ago
Everything I said above was directly taken from non-amateur epidemiologists. I have invented nothing. The error bars on CFR estimates run from fractions of a percent to a few percent. In countries that have tested large numbers of people wh
187.
by irq11 7y ago
”If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients.” Or the fatality and hospitalization rates have been overestimated due to severity bias. We k
188.
by irq11 7y ago
The “data” is anecdotal, not even close to the standards of an effectiveness trial. That said, it’s an approved drug, so it will be applied and we’ll see how it goes. But don’t spread rumors about its effectiveness, because the truth is, we
189.
by irq11 7y ago
This is a false dichotomy. There is no particular reason to believe that China’s approach is the only correct path, other than it’s the one they used.
190.
by irq11 7y ago
Drugs shown to be effective in vitro routinely fail to show similar effects in vivo . Chloroquines have a long history of this in viral studies.
191.
by irq11 7y ago
This article claims that “lockdown” is the best way to stop the virus, then says that South Korea and China are the examples to follow. It claims that Korea has made a lockdown. South Korea has, at no point, made anything close to the count
192.
by irq11 7y ago
What part of what I said isn’t true? The vast majority of cases are mild, like a head cold. This is a fact, and has been reported around the world. You’re arguing about relative hospitalization rates, but that has nothing to do with the dis
193.
by irq11 7y ago
There’s not much evidence that the extreme “lockdown” decisions made by China had a significant impact on the outcome either way. Social distancing, contact tracing and isolation of the sick work well, and that was almost certainly the crit
194.
by irq11 7y ago
Well, first: no. The vast majority of cases are no worse than a head cold. But more importantly, you’re not dying and not clogging up a hospital. That’s what’s relevant to this discussion.
195.
by irq11 7y ago
There was a spike in Seoul. Based on their reaction so far, I have a great deal of confidence in their ability to isolate it and react effectively. Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities ste
196.
by irq11 7y ago
This has not happened in Korea, Japan or Singapore, and all have been dealing with the virus for longer than Europe. At some point, this scary story is going to have to be adjusted to reflect reality.
197.
by irq11 7y ago
It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago). At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild v
198.
by irq11 7y ago
They numbers are updated daily, and there was an update between when I posted, and when you made your comment. The source I posted always points to the most current official numbers. You should read it, instead of arguing.
199.
by irq11 7y ago
They’re the official government source. Whatever you are using is pulling data directly from them.
200.
by irq11 7y ago
You clearly didn’t bother reading the words in the post you’re replying to: 2 deaths in Germany as of today . These are the official European statistics from today. The ones from my original post were the official numbers from yesterday .
201.
by irq11 7y ago
The stats came from yesterday’s European daily status report, which were the most current as of the time I posted (and where all of these other trackers get their numbers). I see that the numbers on the same link have now updated to toda
202.
by irq11 7y ago
So far there have been 902 infections in Germany (3rd highest in the EU), and 0 deaths. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019... I don’t know if Germany is magical or lucky, but assuming a 1% dea
203.
by irq11 7y ago
There’s a link, right there in my post, with more recent and relevant data than you’re citing, and it is directly from the Korean health services: 59 / 6767 confirmed cases were severe or critical in Korea at the time of the report. Th
204.
by irq11 7y ago
The numbers out of Korea are nowhere near 20%. About 0.9% of cases are considered severe, according to the most recent statements from the KCDC: https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017?fbclid=IwAR0tl... Someone i
205.
by irq11 7y ago
Slowing down the virus is fine. There is no effective way to do that by hobbling economic growth. We don’t need quarantines and travel bans and trip cancellations and business shutdowns to slow the virus. These have always been scientifical
206.
by irq11 7y ago
First, the kids are fine. This virus doesn’t really seem to affect children. Second, “worrying” accomplishes nothing. Wash your hands; avoid people when you’re sick. Avoid sick people. Have a couple weeks of groceries on hand if you think q
207.
by irq11 7y ago
You’re one of the few folks on HN talking about this who actually has something to worry about...but ironically, you’re not spreading misinformation or panic, like so many other people. I hope this doesn’t end up being as bad for sick peopl
208.
by irq11 7y ago
You have a point. I don’t know why I’m bothering to engage with obvious nutjobs.
209.
by irq11 7y ago
The virus is like the flu unless you’re old or sick. More specifically: 0) In the case of the parent, I was saying that the virus spreads and infects people in the same manner as other upper respiratory viruses. It does, this is a fact, and
210.
by irq11 7y ago
These conditions are listed as “comorbidities”, which means that they’re illnesses they already had, in addition to the virus. In no way is this paper saying that the virus caused the listed conditions.

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