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It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago). At this point, the only rational thin

by irq11 7y ago

It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago). At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, this should be considered the upper bound on CFR.

tunesmith 7y ago
South Korea has been at 0.8% the last two days, and will continue to climb as their open cases resolve one way or another. Plus, didn't they just have a spike in Seoul?
- irq11 7y ago
  There was a spike in Seoul. Based on their reaction so far, I have a great deal of confidence in their ability to isolate it and react effectively. Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities stem from a time when the case rate was more rapidly increasing. Korea’s case rate had been declining for several days: https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708001243795458 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12297080012... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/heal...
wbl 7y ago
Until the hospitals are overloaded.
- irq11 7y ago
  This has not happened in Korea, Japan or Singapore, and all have been dealing with the virus for longer than Europe. At some point, this scary story is going to have to be adjusted to reflect reality.
  - michaelbuckbee 7y ago
    Sure, but I feel like Italy’s preparedness posture is closer to the US and they did get overwhelmed.
  - URSpider94 7y ago
    It IS happening in Italy, and it definitely happened in China. The difference is that Japan, South Korea and Singapore have much more powerful nationwide governments. This allowed them to put infection controls in place much earlier than we have in the USA. It remains to be seen where we top out, numbers-wise, vs. hospital capacity.
    - jschwartzi 7y ago
      Here in Washington Governor Inslee declared a State of Emergency, which gives him the power to, among other things, mobilize the National Guard and State militias to establish field hospitals. This is essentially the same reaction China had with regard to building temporary hospitals, but at the state level instead of the federal level. We don't need federal powers, just competent state leadership.
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        My Bellevue daycare told me today that they probably won’t close unless a worker, kid, or family member gets the virus or...the state shuts them down. Fun times.
        tempestn 7y ago
        Even if they won't close, you can still pull your kid out when you believe it's prudent to do so, right?
        creato 7y ago
        Isn't that missing the point? That might be fine and dandy for him, but it bodes poorly for slowing the spread in general.
lstroud 7y ago
You realize mild means “didn’t require hospitalization”, right? Many “mild” cases are taking weeks to recover.
- irq11 7y ago
  Well, first: no. The vast majority of cases are no worse than a head cold. But more importantly, you’re not dying and not clogging up a hospital. That’s what’s relevant to this discussion.
  - floriol 7y ago
    But that's not true. While lethality is estimated at tops 3.6%, the cases requiring hospitalization, including breathing apparatus, etc are quite high, and it WILL overflood the capacity of hospitals in virtually every country that didn't take really really serious precautions, of which there are only a handful. It will be a big problem both in Europe and in the US, because they are starting to take measures only now.
    - irq11 7y ago
      What part of what I said isn’t true? The vast majority of cases are mild, like a head cold. This is a fact, and has been reported around the world. You’re arguing about relative hospitalization rates, but that has nothing to do with the discussion here. Mild cases aren’t clogging up ICU wards at all, because they’re quite mild.
nl 7y ago
It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means That's the exact opposite of what the WHO said when they made the pandemic declarations: "We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic," reads a statement from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO.[1] South Korea has shown this to be correct. [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/11/coronavirus-pandemic-world-health-organization/5011903002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/11/corona...
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  It is not the exact opposite in any way. Your quote does not support your assertion. The truth is that it cannot be contained. It can be slowed down though.
hcknwscommenter 7y ago
"the upper bound on CFR" I think you mean that this should be considered the goal upper bound on CFR. It's really the lower bound on CFR if you do everything right. If you do everything wrong, like the US is heading towards, you get overloaded health systems, critical shortages, and a 12% CFR or higher.
- ebiester 7y ago
  A 12% CFR is overstating it, but also because we won't be counting the heart attacks that weren't treated, the chemo and radiation therapy that was postponed, and the other health effects. I think the true measure will be the year over year total mortality.
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    If our health systems are not overwhelmed, sure definitely 12% is overstating it. If they are, look out!
  - droithomme 7y ago
    > 12% CFR is overstating it If we overload our hospitals then CFR will go towards the number of cases that require hospitalization. Which is around 20%. Italy is currently far over hospital capacity and has a CFR today of 8% and rising.
droithomme 7y ago
> this is a very mild virus Media and government keep making this claim, yet where are the recovery numbers of people? It drags on for weeks and weeks with no end in sight, correct? And current case fatality rate in Italy is 8%, was 7% this morning, was 6% yesterday - because they do not have hospital resources for the number of serious cases they have. Serious, critical, and dead outcomes are said to be over 20% of case. This being described as "very low, a very small number" by certain people. That is not a low number at all.

by irq11 7y ago

tunesmith 7y ago

South Korea has been at 0.8% the last two days, and will continue to climb as their open cases resolve one way or another. Plus, didn't they just have a spike in Seoul?

irq11 7y ago
There was a spike in Seoul. Based on their reaction so far, I have a great deal of confidence in their ability to isolate it and react effectively. Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities stem from a time when the case rate was more rapidly increasing. Korea’s case rate had been declining for several days: https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708001243795458 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12297080012... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/heal...

wbl 7y ago

Until the hospitals are overloaded.

irq11 7y ago
This has not happened in Korea, Japan or Singapore, and all have been dealing with the virus for longer than Europe. At some point, this scary story is going to have to be adjusted to reflect reality.
- michaelbuckbee 7y ago
  Sure, but I feel like Italy’s preparedness posture is closer to the US and they did get overwhelmed.
- URSpider94 7y ago
  It IS happening in Italy, and it definitely happened in China. The difference is that Japan, South Korea and Singapore have much more powerful nationwide governments. This allowed them to put infection controls in place much earlier than we have in the USA. It remains to be seen where we top out, numbers-wise, vs. hospital capacity.
  - jschwartzi 7y ago
    Here in Washington Governor Inslee declared a State of Emergency, which gives him the power to, among other things, mobilize the National Guard and State militias to establish field hospitals. This is essentially the same reaction China had with regard to building temporary hospitals, but at the state level instead of the federal level. We don't need federal powers, just competent state leadership.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      My Bellevue daycare told me today that they probably won’t close unless a worker, kid, or family member gets the virus or...the state shuts them down. Fun times.
      - tempestn 7y ago
        Even if they won't close, you can still pull your kid out when you believe it's prudent to do so, right?
        creato 7y ago
        Isn't that missing the point? That might be fine and dandy for him, but it bodes poorly for slowing the spread in general.

lstroud 7y ago

You realize mild means “didn’t require hospitalization”, right? Many “mild” cases are taking weeks to recover.

irq11 7y ago
Well, first: no. The vast majority of cases are no worse than a head cold. But more importantly, you’re not dying and not clogging up a hospital. That’s what’s relevant to this discussion.
- floriol 7y ago
  But that's not true. While lethality is estimated at tops 3.6%, the cases requiring hospitalization, including breathing apparatus, etc are quite high, and it WILL overflood the capacity of hospitals in virtually every country that didn't take really really serious precautions, of which there are only a handful. It will be a big problem both in Europe and in the US, because they are starting to take measures only now.
  - irq11 7y ago
    What part of what I said isn’t true? The vast majority of cases are mild, like a head cold. This is a fact, and has been reported around the world. You’re arguing about relative hospitalization rates, but that has nothing to do with the discussion here. Mild cases aren’t clogging up ICU wards at all, because they’re quite mild.

nl 7y ago

It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means That's the exact opposite of what the WHO said when they made the pandemic declarations: "We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic," reads a statement from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO.[1] South Korea has shown this to be correct. [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/11/coronavirus-pandemic-world-health-organization/5011903002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/11/corona...

hcknwscommenter 7y ago
It is not the exact opposite in any way. Your quote does not support your assertion. The truth is that it cannot be contained. It can be slowed down though.

hcknwscommenter 7y ago

"the upper bound on CFR" I think you mean that this should be considered the goal upper bound on CFR. It's really the lower bound on CFR if you do everything right. If you do everything wrong, like the US is heading towards, you get overloaded health systems, critical shortages, and a 12% CFR or higher.

ebiester 7y ago
A 12% CFR is overstating it, but also because we won't be counting the heart attacks that weren't treated, the chemo and radiation therapy that was postponed, and the other health effects. I think the true measure will be the year over year total mortality.
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  If our health systems are not overwhelmed, sure definitely 12% is overstating it. If they are, look out!
- droithomme 7y ago
  > 12% CFR is overstating it If we overload our hospitals then CFR will go towards the number of cases that require hospitalization. Which is around 20%. Italy is currently far over hospital capacity and has a CFR today of 8% and rising.

droithomme 7y ago

> this is a very mild virus Media and government keep making this claim, yet where are the recovery numbers of people? It drags on for weeks and weeks with no end in sight, correct? And current case fatality rate in Italy is 8%, was 7% this morning, was 6% yesterday - because they do not have hospital resources for the number of serious cases they have. Serious, critical, and dead outcomes are said to be over 20% of case. This being described as "very low, a very small number" by certain people. That is not a low number at all.