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”If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients.” Or the fatali

by irq11 7y ago

”If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients.” Or the fatality and hospitalization rates have been overestimated due to severity bias. We know this to be true, actually. We just don’t have good estimates of what the true rates are. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to find out the virus is already widespread, and only slightly more dangerous than influenza. Even in Italy, if there is widespread infection, the ~4k dead would reflect a low mortality rate.

gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
21 days to death, doubles every 2.5 days, exponential growth. Do the maths.
watwut 7y ago
It would be shocking to epidemiologists. All their confidence intervals are well above influenza. They are fully aware of all caveats amateur people talk about here and don't think it is like normal flu. In italy in hard hit city, they were unable to cremate people fast enough and army had to move bodies. Influenza does not cause that.
- irq11 7y ago
  Everything I said above was directly taken from non-amateur epidemiologists. I have invented nothing. The error bars on CFR estimates run from fractions of a percent to a few percent. In countries that have tested large numbers of people who are not severely ill, the case fatality rates have been at the low end of that range. This isn’t “shocking to epidemiologists”, it’s shocking only to people who dismiss basic facts and try to use irrelevant distractions (like cremation rates) to incite fear.
  - watwut 7y ago
    Epidemiologists say that influenza is easier to control. Irrelevant distraction relevant to topic says that only school here and there has to be closed to contain it. Epidemiologists say on that that one infected person with influenza infects less people then one infected with corona. Epidemiologists do count with overwhelmed hospitals and services, excess deaths due that that, excess deaths on unrelated heath problems. It not just something they talk about, they have it in their models too. This does not happen with influenza, because it is easier to control. Irrelevant distraction there is Italy or Spain lately. Epidemiologists do talk also about costs after epidemic ends, in treatment of people who will need care for long. What amateurs do is to ignore all the above, pick up case fatality ration in well run non-overwhelmed health care system and pretend that is situation same as influenza to feel good.
    - irq11 7y ago
      ” Epidemiologists say that influenza is easier to control.” Not that I have heard of. You’re going to have to cite some evidence here. (They’re both respiratory viruses with similar R0, so your evidence needs to be pretty extraordinary to be convincing.)

by irq11 7y ago

gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago

21 days to death, doubles every 2.5 days, exponential growth. Do the maths.

watwut 7y ago

It would be shocking to epidemiologists. All their confidence intervals are well above influenza. They are fully aware of all caveats amateur people talk about here and don't think it is like normal flu. In italy in hard hit city, they were unable to cremate people fast enough and army had to move bodies. Influenza does not cause that.

irq11 7y ago
Everything I said above was directly taken from non-amateur epidemiologists. I have invented nothing. The error bars on CFR estimates run from fractions of a percent to a few percent. In countries that have tested large numbers of people who are not severely ill, the case fatality rates have been at the low end of that range. This isn’t “shocking to epidemiologists”, it’s shocking only to people who dismiss basic facts and try to use irrelevant distractions (like cremation rates) to incite fear.
- watwut 7y ago
  Epidemiologists say that influenza is easier to control. Irrelevant distraction relevant to topic says that only school here and there has to be closed to contain it. Epidemiologists say on that that one infected person with influenza infects less people then one infected with corona. Epidemiologists do count with overwhelmed hospitals and services, excess deaths due that that, excess deaths on unrelated heath problems. It not just something they talk about, they have it in their models too. This does not happen with influenza, because it is easier to control. Irrelevant distraction there is Italy or Spain lately. Epidemiologists do talk also about costs after epidemic ends, in treatment of people who will need care for long. What amateurs do is to ignore all the above, pick up case fatality ration in well run non-overwhelmed health care system and pretend that is situation same as influenza to feel good.
  - irq11 7y ago
    ” Epidemiologists say that influenza is easier to control.” Not that I have heard of. You’re going to have to cite some evidence here. (They’re both respiratory viruses with similar R0, so your evidence needs to be pretty extraordinary to be convincing.)