hogFeast

84 ms·

721.
by hogFeast 7y ago
I don't think you understand. I am not saying there are no other good options, there are literally no options. You understand that having $1trn isn't like your TD Ameritrade account. Thought experiment: they put the money into Jap
722.
by hogFeast 7y ago
I have no idea who the OP is but a lot of the stuff is not accurate (I saw the previous post that was linked here). It is a slightly less factual ZeroHedge. For all it's faults, ZeroHedge actually gets the mechanics roughly correct (al
723.
by hogFeast 7y ago
There is no other move. The reason they own that much is because USTs are deep and liquid. There is virtually no other market in the world where you can deploy $1trn (certainly no market outside the US).
724.
by hogFeast 7y ago
They aren't. As you say, you are unable to hold large USD balances in China. Whenever an exporter's account is credited with USD, the Chinese bank will take that convert into RMB, take those dollars to the PBOC who will then give
725.
by hogFeast 7y ago
...I didn't say it was controversial. The issue is that the Triffin Dilemma really only applied pre-Bretton Woods . It has been vogue again because of China and Europe bleating about people using the dollar but the reality is that cent
726.
by hogFeast 7y ago
There is, unfortunately, quite a lot wrong here (not just the topic...but obvious stuff like Triffin Dilemma). But the key points are basically two-fold. One, there isn't a shortage of dollars. Nowhere close to one. The Fed learned fro
727.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Two reasons occur: personal guarantee on the note (I have no idea whether this occurs where this person lives...it isn't something I would ever do, no matter the circumstance) or fraudulent conveyance (i.e. the executives start strippi
728.
by hogFeast 7y ago
I am not really sure who got the best of this deal. Definitely, this looks like an attractive investment. Limited downside, nice rate, and some nice optionality with the warrants. But...this is AirBnb. At the very least, they should have go
729.
by hogFeast 7y ago
I would have been in that camp. But it is probably unfair. I still think the company is a dumpster fire but the big investments that Musk is making are, in part, driven by actual revenue. ...now that isn't wholly true. Musk seems to be
730.
by hogFeast 7y ago
The reason AirBnb is a startup is because it makes no money. A company stops being a startup when you aren't relying on someone cutting you a check every month to keep it all going. Most of these companies will now fold. The number of
731.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Financing isn't related to capital structure or leverage. Your assumption is kind of predicated on the belief that people lending to PE are making rational choices...they aren't. The reason why LBOs took off was because S&Ls n
732.
by hogFeast 7y ago
I am sure it must be a great luxury to have the choice of being able to "completely self-isolate"...but that is not going to cover the majority of the population and even those who do are not going to be able to do that for a year
733.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Yes, everyone will be exposed to the virus. As I specifically mentioned: this is going to last for a year (probably more). Everyone is going to have to learn how to continue doing their job with that. There is no other option: the govt does
734.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Er no. It is waiting for a pandemic, and then removing your labour to demand a significant wage hike (I have no idea how this will work out but it is clearly significantly beyond 20%+..."modest" is not an accurate description). Th
735.
by hogFeast 7y ago
This is what inflation looks like. If this continues, the US is going to be in a world of hurt (if workers demand more, guess what is happening prices). Inflation would utterly ravage the economy right now. Just generally too: if Amazon ann
736.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Look at the Netherlands. They have no land and one of the largest agricultural producers in the world. More efficient, cheaper, better for the environment...the benefits are pretty much endless. It isn't about "urban" but usi
737.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Yep, Britain in India is hopelessly complex. For most of the time they were there, the Brits (or, more precisely, the East India Company...power over which was nominally British but was actually responsible to no-one) were the balancing act
738.
by hogFeast 7y ago
That is a very forced interpretation. Britain was not challenging France. The height of French power in terms of relative polarity was the early 18th century, not Napoleon (by that point, Europe was multipolar). Spain imploded, the Netherla
739.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Yep, one of the investors is a guy who has made $25m from investing in similar companies (and ran his own). Scamming institutional investors isn't unusual. I know the lead investor on the deal is one of these PE/VC bubble firms th
740.
by hogFeast 7y ago
The guy mentioned has quite a significant online profile. He runs a startup that just raised quite a bit of money and I heard about him before I clicked the post. Not going to link (tbh, anyone can probably find this guy/his picture&#x
741.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Yep, I have a tool that is similar to this and this is what I did. Unfortunately, if you are working with daily returns you need consecutive returns for way more than a week. You have correlated returns, in particular there are Friday-next
742.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Yep, I am not totally sure what you do about it (stuff like testing people at work is going to be tricky legally) but I came to this conclusion the other day too. The issue really isn't the virus but the fact that people who end up spr
743.
by hogFeast 7y ago
No. Airports most certainly do sell stuff to airlines. Do you think airplanes have a little refinery in the back with a million barrels of oil?
744.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Correct, but we are talking about multiple airlines going. Not just one or two. And we are talking about them going quickly. Thankfully, you quoted the part of my answer that proved my point. Again and again, you will find solutions that ar
745.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Can tell you don't have much experience of bankruptcy. Okay, airlines go bankrupt...presumably, airports go bankrupt too...simple, the various assets are "reassigned"...true. One big problem: if an airline is bankrupt, what a
746.
by hogFeast 7y ago
The only depression you named was 1929. 2000 was barely a recession. 2008 was more severe but...still not really. The US unemployment rate hit 10% which is high...but most countries Europe have had rates at this level for decades. For refer
747.
by hogFeast 7y ago
Medicare. The US public health care system as a % of GDP is probably 75% of the size of Norway's total healthcare spending...and the US has a private health care system subsidising that worth 3x Norway's total spending as % of GDP
748.
by hogFeast 7y ago
They don't. Some have debt, most of the ones where I am do not though. You have depreciation, which is non-cash. Even staff costs have a variable component based on hours flown, although (where I am) they still have to pay a base salar
749.
by hogFeast 7y ago
It is a matter of fact because interest rates are determined by the Fed...who say: we look at expected growth. Don't make things more difficult than they need to be (you can also see this quantitatively).
750.
by hogFeast 7y ago
...yep, I mean the gravity model of trade is just a regression. It is very unlike pretty much everything else in macro because its validity is statistical rather than theoretical (and more models that are justified by theory often perform w

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