guscost

73 ms·

721.
by guscost 7y ago
By that logic, with those numbers (and if 1M is the total globally), then we “lose” almost as badly to the seasonal flu, every year. I’m not saying we shouldn’t care about deadly illnesses. But the world is a dangerous place, and we’ve been
722.
by guscost 7y ago
Cool - again, nice work!
723.
by guscost 7y ago
Aha, thank you! Nice work putting this together, it's much easier to understand than a paper.
724.
by guscost 7y ago
Shouldn't this tool allow for modifying the numbers in the "Severity assumptions" section, too? This uses the same estimate from the Imperial College model, which is basically an educated guess at this point: > A total of
725.
by guscost 7y ago
If you compare the 80+ group (which has a much higher CFR), this town has closer to three times the percentage of the US population. On top of that, this is in a region of Italy where the healthcare capacity has been completely overwhelmed.
726.
by guscost 7y ago
You should include demographic information, since it is relevant to your argument: [Nembro] Age Distribution (E 2019) 0-9 years 1,018 10-19 years 1,191 20-29 years 1,179 30-39 years 1,192 40-49 years 1,640 50-59 years 1,850
727.
by guscost 7y ago
People are already volunteering in other ways, I guess...
728.
by guscost 7y ago
I definitely do not think that the true IFR is higher. But again, I’m not a doctor and this is not medical advice.
729.
by guscost 7y ago
I’m not qualified to properly challenge any of this, but it looks like all of these models use one estimate of the IFR (“mortality rate”). This paper is the basis for their 0.9% number: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1
730.
by guscost 7y ago
Isn’t a circular argument just an axiom with (unnecessary) extra parts?
731.
by guscost 7y ago
> Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). Nonsense! Unless we can count every death caused by the virus, and correctly diagnose every infection , then this is a ridicul
732.
by guscost 7y ago
Ah ok, thanks for answering.
733.
by guscost 7y ago
I’ve regressed to my cynical default in the past few days, but “a large institution that I would trust with this authority” sounds like pure fantasy.
734.
by guscost 7y ago
> it must in some crazy way be spreading much faster among the asymptomatic than among the serious cases. Would that be surprising? If you're contagious a few days before any symptoms, you'd have plenty of time to transmit it t
735.
by guscost 7y ago
> Korea's mortality rate is about 1% 100% complete bullshit, nobody can know this kind of thing for sure right now.
736.
by guscost 7y ago
I'd bet my own health that you're pretty darn close (but I'm still going to avoid visiting old folks for a while). From the conclusion: > Presently, there are four, endemic, coronavirus strains currently circulating in hum
737.
Voodoo death(en.wikipedia.org)
2 points by guscost 7y ago|0 comments
738.
by guscost 7y ago
This is just what you get if you combine Bohmian mechanics with Bell’s theorem, right? If QM relies on hidden variables, they can’t be local.
739.
2019-Novel Coronavirus: estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution(smw.ch)
2 points by guscost 7y ago|0 comments
740.
by guscost 7y ago
This one is more contagious than a common cold?
741.
by guscost 7y ago
Into the future, indefinitely? I'm unable to do that, but here are a few ideas: - Hospitals have a harder time sourcing equipment and treating other conditions, because of the demand - Violence against perceived bringers of the illness
742.
by guscost 7y ago
> spreading like wildfire > stretched to the breaking point If you don't want people to panic, maybe you should avoid this rhetoric?
743.
by guscost 7y ago
Fear will cause more damage than the disaster itself. I don't agree with your priorities, I think your behavior is just as destructive as you must think mine is, and none of that is likely to change.
744.
by guscost 7y ago
No thanks. I don’t stay at home worrying about tractor-trailers or terrorists, either.
745.
by guscost 7y ago
Whether you call the substance of NNs "layers of neurons" or "combinations of (non-)linear functions", I think very often a graphical programming process will be the most ergonomic way to manipulate those essential build
746.
by guscost 7y ago
> You'd think that researchers would design neural network architectures in visual programming space, not in a programming language. Give it a few years, this will definitely happen.
747.
by guscost 7y ago
An authority with the power to control energy use is a bigger threat. Change my mind?
748.
by guscost 7y ago
If the history of timekeeping for navigation sounds interesting, check out the book (and movie) “Longitude” by Dava Sobel. It’s an incredible and largely-forgotten story.
749.
by guscost 7y ago
> I wonder who's paying for this stuff. Oil companies, of course: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friends_of_the_Earth > Friends of the Earth was founded in 1969 in San Francisco by David Brower, Donald Aitken
750.
by guscost 7y ago
"We won't ever figure out how to work safely with a substance that stores huge amounts of usable energy in its atomic structure." ... "We just need to figure out how to store and transport many terawatts of harvested s

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