4 ms·
Shouldn't this tool allow for modifying the numbers in the "Severity assumptions" section, too? This uses the same estimate from the Imperial College model, whi
by guscost 7y ago
Shouldn't this tool allow for modifying the numbers in the "Severity assumptions" section, too? This uses the same estimate from the Imperial College model, which is basically an educated guess at this point:
> A total of 72,314 patient records—44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16,186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10,567 (14.6%) clinically diagnosed cases (Hubei Province only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)—contributed data for the analysis.
Another study guesses that 86% of cases are asymptomatic and/or otherwise undocumented:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/scie...
- nbnoll 7y agoAll numbers in the table should be editable by the user -- apart from the fatality percentages which are computed from the values given. We've been working on the design to make this more obvious at a glance.
- guscost 7y agoAha, thank you! Nice work putting this together, it's much easier to understand than a paper.
- nbnoll 7y agoNo worries. I think it's also important to note that the Imperial College study that's gotten a lot of attention recently is an agent-based model - i.e. they simulate actual individuals - which allow them to look at specific quarantine measures like school closures. You can accomplish an approximate version of this with our model by controlling the isolation column of this table. This allows one to selectively quarantine age groups quantitatively.
- guscost 7y agoCool - again, nice work!