guscost

63 ms·

661.
by guscost 7y ago
This is not the time for fascism, either.
662.
by guscost 7y ago
This cuts both ways.
663.
by guscost 7y ago
I think you missed the point of the story.
664.
by guscost 7y ago
I’m extremely pissed off at these folks who built an unfalsifiable model, panicked the whole world, and will now pretend that it is “science” as they ignore and downplay the death and destruction that follows in the wake of their foolishn
665.
by guscost 7y ago
The article is mostly blind speculation too. Just going with the flow.
666.
by guscost 7y ago
It's just one example of a heart-related effect, that's all. Considering that we're all here reading another hypothesis that this is the first-ever respiratory pathogen to infect the heart , it doesn't seem that much of
667.
by guscost 7y ago
One factor to consider: Some folks will be absolutely terrified to learn they have this disease, which may have real effects. An example: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voodoo_death “These data suggest that vagus co
668.
by guscost 7y ago
Thanks for posting this. Looks like we're going to have to wait for the serosurveys before there's anything more reliable.
669.
New study estimates that 78% of Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic(bmj.com)
3 points by guscost 7y ago|2 comments
670.
by guscost 7y ago
You will have nothing to add if the “2.2 million deaths in the US” scenario, which was blasted across every newspaper front page a few weeks ago, turns out to have been impossible all along? If that scenario was “completely wrong” too, it s
671.
by guscost 7y ago
If any of the scenarios from the famous Imperial College model turn out to have been based on just-as-bad assumptions, would you be willing to write a follow up about that?
672.
by guscost 7y ago
I don’t think there’s value in doing this, unless the second opinion disagrees with the original model. It’s not hard to find a second “expert” to agree with just about anything, if you look hard enough. The number of people who agree wit
673.
by guscost 7y ago
And not only is it far worse than the most spaghettified and surprising program/meta-program you've ever seen, it's also a quine .
674.
by guscost 7y ago
That’s just the absurd example. How do you call it when someone dies five minutes early because they got a stuffy nose? How about a day early? A year early? The coroner is supposed to make these judgements, and it’s not entirely clear how y
675.
by guscost 7y ago
Take on the one hand these untested victims, and on the other the folks who tested positive but did not die of pneumonia or respiratory distress. Right now it’s awfully hard to guess whether the true “death toll” (to the extent that such a
676.
by guscost 7y ago
In the US the deaths are accelerating, but they lag by many weeks or even months in some cases. Lots of new cases are being identified with the increase in testing, but the proportion of positive tests is not changing, which is evidence t
677.
by guscost 7y ago
> would Let’s argue about hypotheticals in a few months when we have more perspective. Both of your lines of reasoning are filament-thin and stitched together using way too many assumptions right now.
678.
by guscost 7y ago
See also: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/worl... Put together the suicides (which could be worse this time with so many people trapped at home), domestic abuse, drug addiction, a
679.
by guscost 7y ago
Also children with abusive parents. Normally one of the factors that can limit abuse is that a teacher or school employee might notice an injury. Some schools are trying their best with "remote visual inspections" (I wish I was ma
680.
by guscost 7y ago
The "direct/indirect" distinction is very important because once we have more perspective on this disaster, we should try to find out whether the alarm and the various extreme measures helped or not, and to what extent. I&#x2
681.
by guscost 7y ago
> people don't want to go to hospital for fear of catching it themselves To be exact, this group of deaths would be caused by the fear of COVID, as you say.
682.
by guscost 7y ago
> Patrick O'Brian, Aubrey-Maturin series. Wonderful, wonderful books. I didn’t even like historical fiction as a concept before these. It takes a while to get over the “culture shock” and learn the vocabulary of seafaring life, but
683.
by guscost 7y ago
Basically yes, in some places: https://web.archive.org/web/20200324214448/https://www.teleg... “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in
684.
by guscost 7y ago
In a few months we will certainly see whether you’re right, or not.
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by guscost 7y ago
Related case report: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17319/v1
686.
by guscost 7y ago
So on the one hand, I think you're bringing up enough problems for me to agree that the extreme scenario is not likely to hold up. On the other, I don't understand how after making so many (often reasonable) assumptions in your ar
687.
by guscost 7y ago
> I don't think a bad seasonal flu overwhelms the local hospitals. Happens all the time, most recently during the 2017-2018 season in parts of the US: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie
688.
by guscost 7y ago
1. Unless I'm mistaken, this (extreme scenario in the) Oxford model does not say that 50% of the population is infected all at the same time. Until there are serological surveys that indicate who was infected in the past, the current t
689.
by guscost 7y ago
“This” is looking more and more like a virus which is extremely contagious but about as deadly as a bad cold. The author of the Imperial College study which led to shutdowns in the UK and US recently revised his estimates and is now saying
690.
by guscost 7y ago
...is all of that real-world data from Lombardy? If not, does it rely on circular logic? I’ve seen evidence in both categories, but not much else.

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