So on the one hand, I think you're bringing up enough problems for me to agree that the extreme scenario is not likely to hold up. On the other, I don't unders

So on the one hand, I think you're bringing up enough problems for me to agree that the extreme scenario is not likely to hold up. On the other, I don't understand how after making so many (often reasonable) assumptions in your arguments, you can say that it's "quite impossible" for the total infected to be so high, or the population-wide IFR to be three orders of magnitude lower than a nursing home or any other special case that you do not fully understand. Here are some of those assumptions, which again do not all seem unreasonable to me: - A mild case would likely be detectable by a PCR test for 8+ days - The PCR test does not have a high false-negative rate in mild cases (see https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17319/v1 https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17319/v1) - Italy has not already had a sharp drop in new infections/most new infections are being identified as cases within two weeks - Italy did nothing to slow the rate of infection until the full lockdown was in effect (but slower spread would mean higher mortality, no matter the reason) - COVID-19 was the only/main thing that contributed to mortality in the special cases