3 ms·
> would Let’s argue about hypotheticals in a few months when we have more perspective. Both of your lines of reasoning are filament-thin and stitched together
by guscost 7y ago
> would
Let’s argue about hypotheticals in a few months when we have more perspective. Both of your lines of reasoning are filament-thin and stitched together using way too many assumptions right now.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y agoI noticed you were claiming that the Sars Cov 2 pandemic was starting to wind down a week ago. But as of today the situation is much more explosive than it was when you made that claim, basically everywhere except Italy, which is on full lockdown. In much of the world there is every indication that the bad is only accelerating. Do you think that maybe it's your predictions and lines of reasoning that are actually miscalibrated?
- guscost 7y agoIn the US the deaths are accelerating, but they lag by many weeks or even months in some cases. Lots of new cases are being identified with the increase in testing, but the proportion of positive tests is not changing, which is evidence that the spread is well past the "explosive" point. But each community follows its own mini-epidemic, and there's still tons of uncertainty. We will see how good of a prediction it was eventually.