guscost

95 ms·

631.
by guscost 7y ago
Yes, to be fair that seems to be the likely plan. It’s only crackpots like Bill Gates who are suggesting we go for the vaccine instead. Which, in his defense, might make sense to keep working on as a hedge.
632.
by guscost 7y ago
That ship may have sailed, unfortunately.
633.
by guscost 7y ago
That’s really the only hope I’m clinging to at this point, that over the next hundred-plus years the cultural changes might be worth all the damage.
634.
by guscost 7y ago
Or: “Don’t show up at the office sick, you’re not ‘dedicated’, you’re just an asshole.”
635.
by guscost 7y ago
> Your idea of what your liberties should be don't justify the drastic externalities you will inflict on your neighbors. With respect, that’s up to my neighbors, not the government.
636.
by guscost 7y ago
Closing schools before the summer break might end up actually leading to more deaths, because young folks would develop immunity (relatively) safely while among their peers. Although this probably applies more to colleges and boarding schoo
637.
by guscost 7y ago
Spot on. I’m happy that so many folks are using the First Amendment to demand liberty in (often) civil discussions online, but to quote the immortal Dave Chappelle, “The Second Amendment is just in case the First one doesn’t work out.”
638.
by guscost 7y ago
Never gonna happen. I could be a good sport for another month, since they’re asking nicely. Beyond that, the risk from creeping fascism quickly outpaces the risk from any disease that fits these observations, and I don’t care if you believe
639.
by guscost 7y ago
$6 Trillion is about $20,000 per person.
640.
by guscost 7y ago
If it's really not that bad, I would guess that the panic is because this is the first time we've been able to observe a brand-new cold virus as it spreads around the world. When the general public starts to understand all of th
641.
by guscost 7y ago
There is always substantial criticism of any minority position in science, it's a subculture full of bullshit politics like any other. Also see my other comment - 15% could just as easily be too low: https://news.ycombinat
642.
by guscost 7y ago
Different hypotheses are obvious to different people. You're hearing one of the scariest ones - partly because it's great business for the media and political industries, and partly because it supports the belief that we can accur
643.
by guscost 7y ago
> Actually SARS-CoV-2 has been found to have a comparatively low mutation rate. Compared to what, a rhinovirus? > you're positing a very large undetected outbreak of an itself-undetected variant strain of COVID-19 From the linked
644.
by guscost 7y ago
Is my translation incomplete, or did that German study use a test with unreported sensitivity (but >99% specificity)? 15% could be closer to a lower bound, if so. On top of that, other research indicates some folks might be recovering wi
645.
by guscost 7y ago
Looks like South Korea has administered fewer tests per capita than Denmark, but you're right that their numbers could be closer if those tests were more effectively targeted.
646.
by guscost 7y ago
Good to see that these results are starting to come out. Eagerly awaiting results of the Stanford serosurvey and others. I'm an optimist but maybe we can hit 100x!
647.
by guscost 7y ago
Pathogens evolve: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr...
648.
SARS-CoV-2 titers in wastewater are higher than expected from confirmed cases(medrxiv.org)
172 points by guscost 7y ago|266 comments
649.
by guscost 7y ago
I’m not a doctor, but I’d bet it’s closer to a cold - it spreads much faster, but may be less lethal. Also, when a virus jumps between species, its virulence can be elevated during the initial period of spread. So it might be a “really bad”
650.
by guscost 7y ago
You can hype up the craft all you want, but none of the models got anywhere close to what we're seeing in reality (look at the estimated number of hospital beds in the IHME model, for example). How can you explain that without admittin
651.
by guscost 7y ago
It’s going to be fun to watch this flood of nonsense convince precisely nobody for the next few years.
652.
by guscost 7y ago
30m is quite a lot bigger than the Planck length, and you can’t predict human behavior by playing The Sims.
653.
by guscost 7y ago
Wait for the serosurveys before assuming how far it has already spread - would it be surprising if yet another estimate about this thing turned out to be way off base?
654.
by guscost 7y ago
The death rate is ludicrously overestimated.
655.
by guscost 7y ago
Much, much less than half. Contagiousness affects the exponential spread.
656.
by guscost 7y ago
And now we wait for the other shoe to drop: serosurveys showing that at least one-third of the US population has already caught COVID-19 and recovered.
657.
by guscost 7y ago
One explanation is that >50% of people have already caught it.
658.
by guscost 7y ago
https://guscost.com 70% rants, 30% computers and math. Most try to be amusing, but you might get mad at some.
659.
by guscost 7y ago
If you weren't already convinced that YouTube is a publisher rather than a platform, this latest episode should make it obvious.
660.
by guscost 7y ago
It's just one (and hopefully the only) step in a very troubling direction. Several places in Europe are much further along, for example: https://www.thelocal.dk/20200313/denmark-passes-far-reaching... Apparently t

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