guscost

45 ms·

421.
by guscost 6y ago
Thanks for all of these epic rants, they are pretty darn articulate, and full of tasty taboo claims that are much appreciated by the angry minority on this issue. Joe Rogan and Bob Saget were talking about how "everyone" has been
422.
by guscost 6y ago
Right, thanks. How about the leased hotels? The field hospital in Brooklyn? The Javits Center? Why were patients sent to NURSING HOMES before any of these? The same question can be asked about the Comfort of course, but I guess we can shift
423.
by guscost 6y ago
Andrew Cuomo sent around 5,000 non-critical COVID-19 patients into nursing homes entirely because of fear that healthcare systems would be overwhelmed. The fear was unjustified: During the same time period the Javits Center, the USS Mer
424.
by guscost 6y ago
The more informed members of the anti-lockdown faction have been predicting this would happen for months, and they have taken a lot of flak for it.
425.
by guscost 6y ago
> we are no near achieving any herd immunity. The observation of widespread cross-reactive T Cell immune response does not support this claim. If 50% of the population is less susceptible, this would dramatically alter the herd immunity
426.
SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity in Covid-19 and SARS cases, and uninfected controls(nature.com)
72 points by guscost 6y ago|120 comments
427.
by guscost 6y ago
We will see.
428.
by guscost 6y ago
That was not the bet, we’re talking about the national number. I might still lose, it looks like there has been a statistically significant bump in the past week, and it may continue. Some of it must be due to spread in the southern states,
429.
by guscost 6y ago
Indeed it is not!!!
430.
by guscost 6y ago
Each assertion is true. The last one is the argument, the first two are just context.
431.
by guscost 6y ago
This is an excellent counterargument. Here is another one: You will never be a completely rational being, no matter how hard you try. You are very good at tricking yourself, and it happens all the time. If you attempt to "think, don&#x
432.
by guscost 6y ago
Those effects don't amount to "general chaos" when compared to a normal flu season? I'll admit it's a little hyperbolic, as is my style. But in many parts of the country (mostly the parts where HN users don't l
433.
by guscost 6y ago
> The reason lockdowns have to be done is to prevent the much larger number of deaths that would occur if coronavirus is allowed to spread unhindered. This claim is not accepted by all in the medical or scientific community. This is ju
434.
by guscost 6y ago
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-at... https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931 https://agoodwar.com/the-ban-on-elective-procedures-is-killi... htt
435.
by guscost 6y ago
So far. Secondary effects from lockdown will continue long after the pandemic wave is over. For example, consider how many people delayed a cancer screening or treatment in the last few months. If anyone who loses a month of life to respira
436.
It Is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of Covid-19(academic.oup.com)
5 points by guscost 6y ago|2 comments
437.
by guscost 6y ago
> but instead of waiting for better data Do you mean “waiting for peer review” or “waiting for additional replication”? > they are selling their wishes as actual fact. “First, a few caveats: Both studies are based on small sample size
438.
Covid-19 Herd Immunity Is Closer Than Antibody Tests Suggest, Say 2 New Studies(reason.com)
3 points by guscost 6y ago|4 comments
439.
by guscost 6y ago
Ahh I was hoping you'd go for an exponential increase - I might well lose this bet. But sounds good, see you then.
440.
by guscost 6y ago
> Can you provide your reasoning? Susceptibility varies widely between individuals, with four grades of antibody response, as well as at least one form of T-Cell-mediated response, already documented in the literature. There is enough ev
441.
by guscost 6y ago
Well sure, but I don't disagree that lots more (both confirmed and probable) cases will be counted over the next week in these places. I'll argue that NYC will not have anything remotely close to Arizona's spike if you like.
442.
by guscost 6y ago
Are you arguing that they have started doing this in other places because tests are scarce? Because the dead are piling up? Really?
443.
by guscost 6y ago
I'm commenting (as I always do) under my real name. I'm staking my personal reputation, and there is a very real chance that I'll be wrong.
444.
by guscost 6y ago
The first point is characterized correctly. We are reaping the whirlwind from a pernicious post-modern academic culture that has been thoroughly corrupted, even in the traditionally "harder" sciences to a degree. Here is a much dr
445.
by guscost 6y ago
It is absolutely partisan to characterize their actions with the phrase "in complete denial", without acknowledging that there are serious and fatal consequences of any lockdown that must be weighed against the benefits. These gov
446.
by guscost 6y ago
This was not standard in [most of] the US two months ago.
447.
by guscost 6y ago
You have a very disappointing standard for "proof": https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-stat... https://google.com?q=ny+coronavirus+cases By "the fucking case numbers&quot
448.
by guscost 6y ago
Reporting standards have definitely been changing over a similar time period, but this alone may not be sufficient to explain the recent jump in cases: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-wants-stat... Of
449.
by guscost 6y ago
It also fits (perfectly) an alternate theory that the population exhibits a wide variation in susceptibility, which lowers the herd immunity threshold. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v..
450.
by guscost 6y ago
> So, unless some new mitigation measures are going to be introduced _right now_, You will be able to claim that any changes made by local and state governments in the next few days/weeks “did the trick”. Nevertheless, this is a f

More ›