4 ms·

Well sure, but I don't disagree that lots more (both confirmed and probable) cases will be counted over the next week in these places. I'll argue that NYC will

Well sure, but I don't disagree that lots more (both confirmed and probable) cases will be counted over the next week in these places. I'll argue that NYC will not have anything remotely close to Arizona's spike if you like. How about we meet up in a month and look at the death numbers? I predict that the national 14-day average will continue to decrease, or maybe flatten out for a bit.

atemerev 6y ago
Agreed. I don’t see how there won’t be an increase in deaths in a month (save for some new miracle drug, which I doubt — antivirals are hard), so sure, see you in a month. My email is in my profile. (The bet is on nationwide increase).
- guscost 6y ago
  Ahh I was hoping you'd go for an exponential increase - I might well lose this bet. But sounds good, see you then.
coding123 6y ago
In a month you guys may be unable to reply, FYI.
- atemerev 6y ago
  I am pessimistic, but I am not _that_ pessimistic.
  - coding123 6y ago
    OH crap, no I meant, that hacker news will lock the reply feature!
dragonwriter 6y ago
The confirmed deaths are a known undercount, and cases going up faster than testing also indicates that the confirmed death count will be more of an undercount, because fewer (proportionately) of the deaths due to the disease will be confirmed.
coding123 6y ago
I'm back after 6 days. It looks like in the three states (CA/FL/TX) death rates are hitting new highs not previously seen in those states.
- guscost 6y ago
  That was not the bet, we’re talking about the national number. I might still lose, it looks like there has been a statistically significant bump in the past week, and it may continue. Some of it must be due to spread in the southern states, where (by no coincidence) people spend more time indoors during the summer. Some of it may also be due to the “July effect” which I did not know about: https://acphospitalist.org/archives/2011/04/coverstory.htm https://acphospitalist.org/archives/2011/04/coverstory.htm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect

atemerev 6y ago

Agreed. I don’t see how there won’t be an increase in deaths in a month (save for some new miracle drug, which I doubt — antivirals are hard), so sure, see you in a month. My email is in my profile. (The bet is on nationwide increase).

guscost 6y ago
Ahh I was hoping you'd go for an exponential increase - I might well lose this bet. But sounds good, see you then.

coding123 6y ago

In a month you guys may be unable to reply, FYI.

atemerev 6y ago
I am pessimistic, but I am not _that_ pessimistic.
- coding123 6y ago
  OH crap, no I meant, that hacker news will lock the reply feature!

dragonwriter 6y ago

The confirmed deaths are a known undercount, and cases going up faster than testing also indicates that the confirmed death count will be more of an undercount, because fewer (proportionately) of the deaths due to the disease will be confirmed.

coding123 6y ago

I'm back after 6 days. It looks like in the three states (CA/FL/TX) death rates are hitting new highs not previously seen in those states.

guscost 6y ago
That was not the bet, we’re talking about the national number. I might still lose, it looks like there has been a statistically significant bump in the past week, and it may continue. Some of it must be due to spread in the southern states, where (by no coincidence) people spend more time indoors during the summer. Some of it may also be due to the “July effect” which I did not know about: https://acphospitalist.org/archives/2011/04/coverstory.htm https://acphospitalist.org/archives/2011/04/coverstory.htm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect