goalonetwo

7 ms·

1.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
yes, the long tail of difficult event is exponentially more difficult to handle. That's why I said above that people "feel" it is ready but it is nowhere to be even close to ready. The average crash rate for human is one ever
2.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
If you drove with a very very bad driver that crashes every 50k miles (average is every 500k miles), you would have exactly the same feeling and you would also be tempted to take a nap.
3.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
100 Miles literally don't matter. Even 1000. On average accidents happens every 500k miles. Are you ready to have your tesla drive FSD with you sleeping in it for 500k? You are letting your feeling dictate that FSD is ready. The math i
4.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
100% and even if they might not "replace" a senior or staff SWE, they can make their job significantly easier which means that instead of requiring 5 Senior or Staff you will only need two. LLM WILL change the job market dynamics
5.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
This i what is so tricky with Self Driving. People "feel" it is almost there because most of their rides are mostly ok. However to make a system truly driverless you need to master the long tails of difficult events and FSD is now
6.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
I worked in this industry. No, FSD is not almost there. Not even close. What matters is the long tails of events. You might "feel" it is almost there because it gets it right 99.9% of the time but that is still way too many accide
7.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Weird jumping to conclusion How do we know this is to seek revenge, and not just a way for the other elephant to attempt to get some water as well?
8.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
exactly this. Working with a couple ex-google and ex-facebook. Without failing every meeting we hear at least once "At Google/Facebook we used to ..." for something that is completely not applicable here.
9.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Ah, another one of those infamous 2018 blog posts on "why I quit Google". And those blog posts absolutely always start by telling you that the engineers at Google are the smartest in the world. Oh boy are those people indoctrinate
10.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Large companies fail in spectacular ways all the time. Google is super successful because they tapped into the biggest cash cow of all times. Not because the employees are somehow very capable and above any oversight.
11.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Good luck proving that your data was not deleted. GDPR and CCPA etc made it easy to send a request for deletion that will most probably be a frontend gimmick. How much effort are they really going to put into going back in their backups and
12.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Exactly this. Especially for a currently failing company that got an incentive to NOT delete your data (because that's the only value they still have).
13.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
common advice is to never connect your smart TV to the network. Only use the HDMI inputs.
14.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
I would rather say that it is easy to have zero drama when most of the committers come from a single large companies.
15.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Ah yes Deloitte. Always there to sell the latest hype technology.
16.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
you only need that if you have multiple adversarial parties that all want to commit to a shared immutable history. This is a use case with a single source of truth (the DMV). So again, why do we need a blockchain?
17.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
lol
18.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
So no different than a database. Why did this need to be a blockchain. The information comes from a centralized database anyways
19.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Even with all those points, you would in most cases end up with more assets renting something equivalent and dumping your down payment and mortgage in the SP500. Again, the main advantage of a mortgage is that it forces you to save. If you
20.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Homes should not be an investment. And Homes are also generally a bad investment even though there is a whole lobby of people that try to convince you that you need to buy at any price. The only reason why homes have been a good "inves
21.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
My 2 cents from an immigrant: Most people that claim they cannot pay the bills make more than enough to pay the bills and save but get stuck into a loop of overspending and buying things without thinking. This seems to be a very specific Am
22.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Most home made calculator/spreadsheet completely gloss over all the fees and details. But also most people have already emotionally decided to buy and want to pretend they did the math to justify their decision.
23.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
You can change all those assumptions? I changed most of them and even by having rent going up 5% a year and a market return for housing of 6% a year. It also assumes the SP500 only returns 5% a year while in practice historically it is clos
24.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Even with a 13% increase you are probably still better off renting if you are in a VHCOL area. I'm in the bay area and at this point my rent could go up 100% and I would still rent. My rent is 3900$/month. The value of my townhous
25.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
The rent or buy calculator from the NYT includes an expected rent increase over time: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/buy-rent-cal...
26.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
you are right and you also need to include the rent equivalent, yes. I would advise to use the rent or buy calculator: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/buy-rent-cal... It is the best one I have
27.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Again, I'm not disputing the leverage. I'm disputing the fees that are removing at least 3 or even 4% a year, and that is on top of the interest. (I'm in the housing industry and I can tell you for a fact that everybody under
28.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
100%. I have been following the housing market for the last few years. So-called data is all over the place. It really feels that all those companies have a narrative in mind and are nitpicking the data to fit the narrative. I have rarely s
29.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
Use the NYT Rent or Buy calculator. Most home made math don't account for the ton of fees/taxes/insurances and the time-value of money, and the exceptional returns of the SP500. I have yet to find a single place that would ha
30.
by goalonetwo 2y ago
How could you only put 20k$ of expenses over the last decade? That doesn't even cover close to the principal and interests on your mortgage. You also don't account for the time-value of money. In this case you might get slightly a

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